Traders Advantage Results

September 2008 trading advice given

Profit for Month = £578

Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed results table below)

Date
Teams
Score
Profit
01/09/08
IFK Goteborg V GIAS
0 - 1
£n/a
02/09/08
York V Mansfield
1 - 1
£64
04/09/08
Kidderminster V Torquay
1 - 0
£23
06/09/08
Peterborough V Bristol Rovers
5 - 4
£41
06/09/08
Hungary V Denmark
0 - 0
-£95
06/09/08
Romania V Lithuania
0 - 3
£9
07/09/08
Silkeborg V Herfølge
3 - 0
£33
07/09/08
Livorno V Mantova
1 - 1
£2
08/09/08
Arka Gdynia V Lechia Gdansk
2 - 0
£10
09/09/08
Denmark U21 V Scotland U21
1 - 0
£43
10/09/08
Croatia V England
1 - 4
£34
12/09/08
Piacenza v Livorno
1 - 1
£26
13/09/08
Borussia Dortmund V Schalke 04
3 - 3
£24
13/09/08
Wigan V Sunderland
1 - 1
£30
14/09/08
Stoke V Everton
2 - 3
£37
14/09/08
Ajax V Roda Jc
1 - 0
£0
14/09/08
QPR V Southampton
4 - 1
£17
14/09/09
Hannover V Mönchengladbach 
5 - 1
£60
15/09/08
Tottenham V Aston Villa
1 - 2
£7
16/09/08
Marseille V Liverpool
1 - 2
£17
17/09/08
Steaua Bucuresti v Bayern Munich
0 - 1
£44
18/09/08
Napoli V Benfica
3 - 2
£53
20/09/08
Sunderland V Middlesbrough
2 - 0
£5
20/09/08
Mönchengladbach V Hertha Berlin
0 - 1
£9
20/09/08
West Ham V Newcastle
3 - 1
£37
21/09/08
West Brom V Aston Villa
1 - 2
£94
21/09/08
Hull V Everton
2 - 2
£23
21/09/08
Stuttgart V Karlsruhe
3 - 1
£n/a
22/09/08
G Furth v Kaiserslautern
0 - 1
£16
23/09/08
Swansea V Cardiff
1 - 0
£21
24/09/08
Napoli V Palermo
2 - 1
£32
25/09/08
Grays Athletic V Stevenage Town
1 - 2
-£42
26/09/08
FC Koln V Schalke
1 - 0
£6
27/09/08
Everton V Liverpool
0 - 2
-£20
27/09/08
Bochum V Leverkusen
2 - 3
£16
27/09/08
Middlesbrough V West Brom
0 - 1
£0
28/09/08
Karlsruher V Wolfsburg
2 - 1
-£58
28/09/08
AC Milan V Inter Milan
1 - 0
£47
29/09/08
Clermont V Strasbourg
2 - 2
£26
30/09/09
Fenerbahce V Dynamo Kyiv
0 - 0
-£93

 

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Trades Completed in Detail


Date: 01/09/08
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Allsvenskan
Teams: IFK Goteborg V GIAS - SCORE: 0 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Goteborg have surprised most this season with an excellent home record which has seen them score 22 goals and win 8 of the last 10, losing just once. If they win here they will move into 3rd place behind Elfsborg and Kalmar. Against bottom half teams they have won all their games and their opponents here come into this match with a poor away record , winning just one of the last 10. Historically when these two meet its usually a low scoring affair but with Goteborg's home form this season we should see them score a couple of goals. We won't be surprised if GAIS score too as they have managed to grab a goal in their last two top 4 meetings, despite losing.

We have fallen foul of quite a few of these Scandinavian matches going against us this season so despite feeling Goteborg will win here we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If they go behind early on it might be worth a small side trade on them as they should draw level. The over 2.5 goals market is of interest in the 1st half as we are expecting a goal around the 25-35min mark, trading out for no loss on under 2.5 at HT if it remains goalless. Please feel free to stagger your stake on these.


Our Trading Result:
Well regrettably we didn't get in on this with either bet as the goal came too early and the draw odds were a little too high for us so we hadn't started to stagger our stake on. We mentioned in the preview to consider backing IFK with a small stake if they went behind early. Only a handful of members highlighted to us they got in on this but we were concerned that GAIS were defending well and could cause an upset so advised anyone who asked us about backing them to avoid this.




Profit made on this trade = N/A



Date: 02/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: York V Mansfield - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
This is a tough one to call, both teams will likely be challenging for promotion this season. York are undefeated in 6 and Mansfield have won 4 of the last 6 losing just once. Both teams have issues keeping a clean sheet so we should see a few goals. This looks prime for a scoring draw to us although Mansfield have looked a little more dangerous around the 18 yard box. H2H is evenly split with both teams scoring in the last 3 meetings but no draws when York are playing at home and no goalless matches.

We will be laying the draw here, staggering our stake and trading out after a goal. It shouldn't matter who scores 1st, but ideally York. The over 2.5 goals market makes sense during the 1st half as a side trade, trading out after a goal or at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over with the same stake as usual. If the match is goalless when the draw odds reach 1.8 we will trade out on the draw bet, probably with the loss on the draw.

Those who want some cover on the 0-0 its available at 13.0 if your concerned the match might finish goalless.

Our Trading Result:
Well made up for yesterday here! We layed the draw at 3.5 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.77. York opened the scoring after 35 min's for us to trade out at 4.5 on the draw with £85 with the profit weighted towards the draw as we felt a score draw was on the cards (in the preview). We traded out of the goals bet at 1.83 with £75 for a joint profit of £69. We did put £5 on the 0-0 at 13 so overall £64.



Profit made on this trade = £64



Date: 04/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Kidderminster V Torquay - SCORE: 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Before the season kicked off we were expecting both these two to be up their in the top 5. Unfortunately neither have been that impressive so far this season, admittedly we are only 6 games in but Kidderminster have only picked up 2 wins and Torquay, just the one. On a positive note Kidderminster have managed to extend their home unbeaten run from last season to 10 matches now mainly due to their ability to score, managing 24 in the last 10 and hitting the back of the net in 100% of these games. They have also prevent their opponents scoring more that a single goal in all these games. Torquay on the road usually score but concede in about 90% of their matches so we are expecting both on the score sheet. H2H there are no goalless matches with Torquay winning the last few meetings. Its fair evenly split so anything could happen here although Torquay is one of the teams we are laying today personally.

It makes sense to lay the draw and trade out after a goal, from either team as Betfair has them evenly matched so we will be able to profit whoever scores. Please feel free to chase a better price by staggering your stake during the 1st 20mins or so, don't wait too long though as you might get caught out. A side trade on over 2.5 goals should pay off so we will look to do this during the 1st half, by staggering out stake. Tip: If your not sure when to get in on the goals bet check the graph for higher volumes of money (that's us lot usually staggering our stake on). As usual if we don't see a 1st half goal we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake, back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half.

Usual trade out point of 1.8 on the draw if it remains goalless, probably with the loss on the draw unless both teams are going through the motions in the last 20 min's and it looks like being goalless.

As usual the 0-0 is there for your consideration before or in play to cover your potential liability. Don't really think you will need it here but £5 on at 15.0 makes sense if your concerned.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.65 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.53. Kidderminster opened the scoring just before HT for us to trade out on both bets. We got out at 4.5 on the draw bet with £79 for £20 on the win and 2.3 on the goals bet with £54 for a small profit of £3 so overall £23. Those who layed layed Torquay as mentioned in the preview would have made over £100 here (not an official trade so no reportable profit).



Profit made on this trade = £23


 

Date: 06/09/08
Time: 12.15hrs GMT
Fixture: Coca Cola League One
Teams: Peterborough V Bristol Rovers - SCORE: 5 - 4

Our Recommendation:
Peterborough have had a rocky start to the season losing 3 of their 4 opening games, definitely missing their spark which got them promoted. Bristol have started their campaign with 1W-2D-1L but have looked sharp and definitely been an enjoyable team to watch, especially in their 6-1 battering of Hereford a few weeks ago. Peterborough have a few holes in defence with key players out which we expect Rovers to exploit. Defensively Rovers aren't to bright either, conceding in 9 of their last 10 (scoring well though). H2H has always been an exciting encounter as far as we can remember with the last 7 matches seeing both teams score and a whopping 28 goals. We are expecting both teams to provide enough opportunities for the other team to register a goal and see the over 2.5 goals trend continue.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We will get better odds movement if Peterborough open the scoring but it shouldn't matter either way. If you want to stagger your lay stake for shorter odds, please feel free. We are expecting a 1st half goal here so will be having a side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half , staggering our stake as usual. Getting out at HT if its still goalless for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake, back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half. They have had a few goalless matches in their past but not in the last 10 years so you shouldn't need any cover on the 0-0 but its their for your trade out liability inplay if your concerned or before if you like.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.6 and backed over 2.5 goals with £25 of the £50 we were looking to get on at 2.32 then we were kindly reminded by members we highlighted in the preview we were only putting £25 on the goals market in this match so we didn't put anymore on regrettably. The opening goal came from Peterborough for us to trade out at 5.0 on the draw with £70 and 1.58 on the goals bet with £28 weighting the profit slightly towards over 2.5. Overall £41



Profit made on this trade = £41



Date: 06/09/08
Time: 18.45hrs GMT
Fixture: International
Teams: Hungary V Denmark - SCORE: 0 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Requested by some of our members from Hungary so here it is!
These two have met quite a few times before. A feature of these meeting is the home win with 7 of the last 8 being won by the home team, this also highlights we usually see a winner. A 1st half goal is also a feature with the last 10 all seeing this. Defensively both teams are less than inspiring and have conceded in the last 5 outings. They can score though, with goals being scored in the most of their recent outings. For us this is a tough call but would support the home win if pushed but not enough to back Hungary so we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake for better value although you will be able to profit from either team scoring
at the current draw odds. The over 2.5 goals market makes an ideal side trade inplay so we will look to stagger our stake during the 1st half, looking to get it all on before 25 min's in unless the game is tight. If we don't see a 1st half goal we will follow our usual plan of trading out for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. We will look to get back in if 2 goals come and their are more than 15mins left.

The 0-0 is their for your consideration inplay if your concerned the game will finish goalless although no trends support this. Usual trade out point of 1.8 on the draw if we don't see any goals, loss on the draw unless the teams are going through the motions.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.55 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.66. The 1st half didn't deliver any goals despite a great chance a few min's before HT so we traded out for no loss on under 2.5 goals as usual when this happens at 5.6. The 2nd half was pretty poor with an obvious lack of finishing, quite a few members asked about putting some cover on the 0-0 where we advised from what we were seeing it made sense. Despite this we didn't because of our prematch comments, as we felt it would be a little misleading for us to do it after mentioning no trends support it. So when it came to trading out at 1.8 the only real option for us was to split the loss across all options and take it on the chin as the match was obviously going to end in a stalemate.

 


Profit made on this trade = -£95


 

Date: 06/09/08
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Fixture: International
Teams: Romania V Lithuania - SCORE: 0 - 3

Our Recommendation:
Whilst most would expected Romania to walk this they are without Captain Cristi Chivu and Adrian Mutu. Without these two they were completely ineffective against a very average Latvia side recently. We still expect them to win as this match has significance (probably by a single goal) but Lithuania have looked very organized recently registering a couple of decent wins. We haven't done an under 2.5 goals trade in a while mainly due to new members getting use to one type of trade (overs and lay the draw if you hadn't noticed) so here we go. We will be backing under 2.5 goals here before kick off and trading out inplay around 10-15 min's by laying under 2.5. If the game is end to end early on and your concerned someone is going to score either trade out or start to stagger your stake out by laying under 2.5 in stages to minimise any potential loss. If we get caught out by a goal we will look to back under 2.5 again for higher average odds and trade out once the odds are equalised for a small profit or no loss. If we see two early goals, we will move the potential loss onto under 2.5 as a 3rd will likely come. If a large liability makes you nervous consider splitting the loss across both options. Ideally we won't need all this and it will go nice and smooth. A side trade on Romania is there for your consideration if they are dominant inplay. No to this for us.


Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 goals at 2.34 before kick off. The match didn't deliver a goal until 31 min's in so plenty of time to trade out on this one. It took a while for the market to settle and form inplay but it enabled us to trade out at 2.1 with £110 with the profit weighted slightly toward under. The match finished in a shock 0-3 result, well deserved though so the smaller profit of £9

 


Profit made on this trade = £9



Date: 07/09/08
Time: 12.00hrs GMT
Fixture: 1st Div Denmark
Teams: Silkeborg V Herfølge - SCORE: 3 - 0

Our Recommendation:
This is likely to be close, both teams are in joint 2nd place, undefeated this season with 3 wins and a draw. Both team have looked sharp from the start scoring in all these matches, Herfølge's 8-1 battering of Køge was a clear example of their offensive ability. Sileborg will likely make it difficult defensively for Herfølge as they are defensively strong at home but we can't see them preventing the ball hitting the back of the net. Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 H2H meetings and both will want to win this so we shouldn't see either team playing for the draw.

Picking a winner here will be tough so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal as its probably the best option. We will want draw odds below 3.6 so hold out for these as we don't want to be left with a loss if Herfølge open the scoring. Usual trade out point if the match is goalless when the odds reach 1.8 on the draw. There isn't much money on the goals market so if you want a side trade on this inplay be careful and use low stakes.

The 0-0 is at 20 if you want some cover.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.5 and put £5 on the 0-0 at 20. We also backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.37 with just £25. Goals were obviously on the way here with the 1st coming just before HT from Silkeborg who were dominant for us to trade out at 5.0 on the draw with £67 and 1.92 with £30 on the goals for £33 overall.

 


Profit made on this trade = £33



Date: 07/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Serie B
Teams: Livorno V Mantova - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Livorno have the forwards and midfield of a Serie A team especially Tavano who put 3 past Avellino last week, which is likely to see them bounce back up to the Italian Premier League on the 1st attempt. On the flip side of the coin they have the defence of a Serie B team and will continue to concede left right and centre, mainly because of their attacking style of play. Their opponents here are also a team that play attacking football but rarely keep a clean sheet on the road, especially against teams of Livorno's standard, so this should be entertaining. From both teams opening games Livorno look the better team especially as Mantova are missing a few of their key players.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Livorno (the draw odds are sitting at 3.35 at the moment which seems a decent price but not as good as the ones pre-kick off). We will also be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay during the 1st half, staggering our stake as usual. Usual plan here for trading out on the goals bet if it remains goalless at HT, back in if 3 look likely in the 2nd half and usual trade out point on the draw if it remains goalless.

The 0-0 is there for your consideration inplay if you feel the match is going to finish goalless. Might be worth a little cover before kick off after yesterdays 0-0, just incase (remember the reason most members trade the goals market as well is to ideally boost their profits so they can afford to take some cover on the 0-0. Trading under 2.5 has a 30% higher strike rate but because we tend to get out sooner less of a profit, we will put some in over the coming weeks for you to decide what you prefer).


Our Trading Result:
The draw odds had steamed in quite a lot in the run up to this match so we benefited from average odds os 2.94 on the lay bet and backed over 2.5 goals as a side bet inplay at average odds 3.12. Basically the game we were expecting in the 1st half but unfortunately no goals. So we traded out as usual on the goals bet. We had to wait until 50 min's for the 1st goal which came from Mantova. The draw odds barely moved in the next 10 min's so we took 3.25 with £97 as we were concerned Livorno would equalise. A few min's later Livorno lost Diamanti to a red card for the odds to lengthen over 4.2 and those who were chasing value (most members from the feedback) to get a decent price. 10 man Livorno managed to grab the equalizer with 15 min's to go. Lots of members asked us if it was worth getting back in on the goals bet, as the goal came just on the time period we would not normal get back in. We advised that we felt Livorno would now defend the draw as they were a man down so we wouldn't be getting back in. Mantova went down to 10 men with a few minutes to go making this a highly entertaining one to watch as expected, but not much profit. We also had 10 on the 0-0 so overall a whopping £2

 


Profit made on this trade = £2



Date: 08/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Polish Cup
Teams: Arka Gdynia V Lechia Gdansk - SCORE: 2 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Ok most of you will probably be saying who the hell are these teams. Well if you know much about Polish soccer you will know that these two are fighting for top spot in the Polish 2nd division with only 2 points separating them. Lechia have slipped up in the last 10 games losing 3 which has seen Arka overtake them. Arka have improved over the same period maintaining an unbeaten run of 13 matches, scoring in 100% of these matches. H2H there isn't much between them but a feature of these matches is a low scoring match which is likely to continue due to Lechia's style of play on the road. We wouldn't want to bet on a winner but Betfair seem to have it right that Arka are favorites.

For us we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Arka but if we stagger our stake for value we should be able to profit whoever scores 1st. We will be having a side trade on under 2.5 goals for the 1st 10-15min's looking to trade out earlier if the game opens up, although we expected a tight start. If a goal comes before we trade out we will follow the plan thats in our football trading manual by backing again to raise our odds so we can trade out once the odds equalise. If we see another before we have traded out we will look to move the loss onto under 2.5 as a 3rd will be more than likely. The 0-0 is there for your consideration if your concerned its going to finish goalless, £5 on the 13 that is currently available makes sense before kick off, backing further if your need to inplay.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.55 and backed under 2.5 goals at 1.79. The game was fairly tight as expected early on enabling us to trade out at 1.54 with £54 on the goals bet with the profit weighted towards under. We also put £5 on 0-0 at 12.5 before kick off. Great game to watch this one with it end to end in the 2nd half, especially the later stages with most members who contacted us not even trade out at our usual point as they were convinced it wouldn't finish goalless. We stuck to usual plan trading out at 1.8 begrudgingly but following the traditional trade out plan of loss on the draw with £95. Arka converted a penalty with about 6 min's to go, following it up a few min's before the final whistle with a 2nd.

 


Profit made on this trade = £10



 

Date: 09/09/08
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Fixture:Euro U21 Champs
Teams: Denmark V Scotland - SCORE: 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
This Scottish U21 side would give the current adult one a run for its money. They come in this match on the back of 5 consecutive wins, scoring 15 goals in these games, so are obviously firing on all cylinders and will obviously be motivated in this encounter and hopefully secure top spot over Finland. They aren't a side that travel too well which puts us off backing them here and historically lose around 40% of their away matches although not in this vain of form. Their opponents here are a decent side only 2 points behind and are strong at home, avoiding defeat in around 80% of their games. They come into this match on the back of a loss to top placed Finland so will want to win here so they don't lose any ground on 2nd place Scotland. The last time these two met it finished 0-0 but both teams seem to have found their shooting boots since then and Scotland are a completely reinvigorated side.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Denmark but we have a strong feeling Scotland will be on the scoresheet 1st so it makes sense to stagger your lay stake for lower average odds just incase this does happen, although we should still get a small positive movement if this happen. We will put a small stake on the 0-0 for a bit of safety and will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay during the 1st half, again stagger our stake. Usual trade out plan if things go wrong at HT with the side trade.

Usual trade out point of 1.8 should it go against us loss on the draw unless they are playing for the 0-0, ask if not sure.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.43 also putting £5 on the 0-0 at 12. Good start from both teams with a few decent chances from the Scot's but unfortunately they lacked finishing. Denmark took the lead on the counter at the perfect time for us and our members enabling us to trade out at 4.9 on the draw with £69 and 1.66 on the goals bet with £70 for an overall profit of £43 taking the £5 off for the 0-0 bet. Those who predicted the match would end under 2.5 would have done a little better.

 


Profit made on this trade = £43



Date: 10/09/08
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture:World Cup Qualifier
Teams: Croatia V England - SCORE: 1 - 4

Our Recommendation:
Its got to be 3rd time lucky hasn't it? This will be the 3rd time England have met Croatia in 2 years losing the last two mainly due to stupid errors. On a positive note they did win the previous two! Unfortunately England's most recent match against Andorra doesn't inspire confidence especially when you compare it to the superb display we witnessed on Saturday which saw the Croatians overwhelm Kazakhstan on every inch of the pitch, winning 3-0. Putting this in perspective even Kazakhstan managed to beat Andorra 3-0. We aren't writing England off though as on paper they have a superb squad, managed by one of the most competent managers in the game, they just need a decent result against a team that is considered a challenge, ideally Croatia.

What the trends tell us is Croatia normal start the better which is evident by England not normally being on the score sheet until around HT or later compared to a large majority of Croatia's goals against England coming early (nearly 40% in the 1st 20 min's). Bilic's recent comments about England hopefully will see this change and get them all fired up starting on the offensive. Goals have been pretty free flowing from both team in their most recent H2H matches and against other opponents so we shouldn't need to worry about it finishing goalless and with both teams wanting a win here we should see both team on the scoresheet. Both teams have a few key players out but there replacement are hardly 2nd tear so we have few concerns we won't see the game we are expecting.

The safest option here has to be lay the draw and trade out after a goal and at 3.25 we would be able to profit whoever gets on the score sheet 1st. Obviously chasing value makes sense but be mindful that Croatia tend to score early. We are also going to go against the odds and feel we will see a 1st half goal, so will be having a side trade on the goals market by laying under 2.5 goals (currently at 1.64) staggering our stake for lower average odds and trading out after a goal by backing under 2.5. We will keep the stakes low and won't be trading out at HT if we don't see a goal unless the match is very tight.

The 0-0 is there for your consideration if your concerned its going to finish goalless, you shouldn't need it though.


Our Trading Result:
The odds were short before kick off and shortened fairly quickly after the match turned inplay for us to get average odds of 2.93 match on the lay bet and 1.44 on the goals bet. The match basically started hotting up 20 min's1 in with Walcott opening the scoring 26 min's in for us to jump for joy and trade out at 3.85 with £73 on the draw bet and 2.0 with £16 on the goals bet for £34 overall.
We know David made his members more on this match by backing England which is the advantage of being an inplay member.


Profit made on this trade = £34



Date: 12/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture:Serie B
Teams: Piacenza v Livorno - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
We mentioned it a few days ago and we will mention it again. Livorno have the forwards and midfield of a Serie A team especially Tavano who put 3 past Avellino two weeks ago, which is likely to see them bounce back up to the Italian Premier League on the 1st attempt. On the flip side of the coin they have the defence of a Serie B team and will continue to concede left right and centre, mainly because of their attacking style of play. Their opponents here Piacenza were battered 3-0 in Grosseto last week which could of easily been 6. They did pick up a 1-0 win in their previous match but against a team we would consider a few grades above, the most we feel they can grab here is a draw. We should see a couple of goals here as Livorno have conceded in the last 10 on their travels and are looking sharp up front and Piacenza have scored in their last 10 at home. H2H Livorno have won all the previous encounters this millennium and haven't scored less than 2 goals so it does look like an away win with all things considered. If it was 10 games into the season we would have probably backed Livorno here but we prefer the safer option of laying the draw (currently available at 3.0) and trading out after a goal.Out at 1.8 if a goal doesn't come before this point. Please feel free to stagger your stake if you want. We will also be having a side trade on over 2.5 goals, inplay staggering our stake for value and trading out after a goal. Out at HT if we don't see one with the loss on over 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake (usual plan).

The 0-0 is there for your consideration inplay if you feel the game will finish goalless.

Our Trading Result:
Nice short odds before kick off and dropped quickly after the match started. We got 2.88 average odds on the draw bet and 2.98 matched on the goals bet. The opening goal came for Livorno for us to trade out at 3.45 with £82 on the draw and 2.1 with £65 on the goals. Unfortunately we traded out with the weight in the wrong direction on both bets so only £26.


Profit made on this trade = £26



Date: 13/09/08
Time: 14.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams:Borussia Dortmund V Schalke 04 - SCORE: 3 - 3

Our Recommendation:
All the signs here are that Schalke will continue their superb away win record against bottom ranked teams. They have maintained a decent record over Dortmund in recent years winning 4 of the last 5 and avoiding defeat in 9 of the last 10 including cup games. A feature of Dortmund's home games is conceding against top half teams, usually early on doing so in all the last 10 and in 8 of the last 10 against all teams. Scoring for them hasn't really been an issue so we should see both teams on the score sheet and shouldn't need to worry about the 0-0. We do feel Schalke have this but as the draw odds are shorter than expected and we will profit whoever scores 1st we have decided to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. We will also have a side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half. Please feel free to stagger your stake on both these trades.

Usual trade out plan on both if we don't see a goal before HT or when the draw odds reach 1.8.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.3 and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.1 with £30 of the £50 we were looking to get on. Schalke opened the scoting through a converted penalty for us to trade out on both trades. We got out at 3.9 on the draw and 1.62 on the goals bet for an overall profit of £24 overall.



Profit made on this trade = £24



Date: 13/09/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams:Wigan V Sunderland - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Wigan have been surprisingly strong defensively at home in their most recent matches, kept 6 clean sheets in the last 10 and against teams of Sunderland's ranking 75% of of their matches last season. Sunderland's scoring record on the road supports this failing to score in 7 of their last 10. The last 9 home games Wigan have played have finished under 2.5 and 8 of the last 9 H2H meetings have all finished under 2.5.

So quite obviously we will be backing under 2.5 goals and trading out ideally before a goal 10-15 min's in. If its tight please feel free to trade out in stages to chase some value after this point but be ready to get out if your concerned. If a goal comes before we have traded out we will back again for higher average odds, trading out once the odds are equalised. If a 2nd comes before were out and the game is open we will move the loss onto under as a 3rd will be likely. If your not happy with this split the loss across both options. We will also be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, as we do expect to see at least 1 please feel free to stagger your stake for value so two main trades here.

If its goalless when the draw odds reach 1.8 usual trade out plan.

The 0-0 is their for your consideration as always.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at at 3.35 and backed under 2.5 goals at 1.82. The opening goal came bang on where we were were looking to trade out so were forced to back under 2.5 again getting 2.92 match. At this point we traded out on the lay bet at 3.45 as we did expect Wigan to pull one back later in the match. We waited a short whilst for the odds to equalise and traded out in stages getting average odds of 2.24 so overall £30 as we waited the profit to the draw, advising all that contacted us to do so.



Profit made on this trade = £30



Date: 14/09/08
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams:Stoke V Everton - SCORE: 2 - 3

Our Recommendation:
On the road, Everton were hard to beat last season with a similar record to the top two. They did well against teams with Stoke's ranking only losing a couple of these matches, winning just under 70% of them. Only 1 goal separated these two in the league, and surprisingly its Stoke sitting on top and after Everton 3-0 loss to Pompey last week they will fancy their chances on home soil. Everton still have a few issues which we feel Stoke will exploit here and as they have a superb home scoring record, we see them on the score sheet but not sure if they will win, probably a score draw, we will have to see what happens. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Everton as they are shorter in price. If you want to chase a better price please feel free to do so. Both teams have seen all their Premiership matches finish over 2.5 goals this season so we will be having a side trade on this inplay during the 1st half, staggering our stake.

If we don't see any goals before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual by laying over 2.5 with the same stake, back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half. If the match is still goalless when the draw odds reach 1.8 we will trade out as usual on the draw bet.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.4 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 3.19. A pretty poor example of a premiership match but not quite as bad as the Ajax match we were trading on at the same time. Everton opened the scoring late in the 2nd half for us to trade out at 4.2 on the draw bet and 2.46 on the goals for an overall profit of £37.


Profit made on this trade = £37



Date: 14/09/08
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Eredivisie
Teams:Ajax V Roda Jc - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Ajax were a banker for a 1st half goal in the majority of their home games last season and were leading at the interval in 9 of their last 10. Their scoring record is simply superb, hitting the back of the net 36 times in these games. Their opponents here should concede as they rarely keep a clean sheet on the road, especially against top ranked teams. The odds are a little short so its worth chasing value. To confirm we will be backing over 2.5 goals, staggering our stake through the 1st half and trading out after a goal. If we don't see a 1st half goal we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. This is a match you should be concerned about if we see 2 in the 2nd half so be ready to get back in if there are more than 15 min's left of the match, probably moving the loss back onto under by backing over again.



Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.1. The usual Ajax team we can rely on didn't turn up at least in spirit so we traded out at HT for no loss should the match finish under 2.5 goals as usual. They managed to get one on the board but that was it, so no need to get back in and no loss for us and the members.


Profit made on this trade = £0



Date: 14/09/08
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Championship
Teams:QPR V Southampton - SCORE: 5 - 1

Our Recommendation:
QPR are one of the most consistent home scoring teams in the Championship, averaging 2 goals a game. In this encounter they meet a Saints team who just can't keep a clean sheet, especially on the road. Interestingly the last 4 times these two have met the away team has won and there has always been goals in their H2H meetings so we shouldn't need to worry about the 0-0. QPR look the better side, but it is early in the season so we would rather not take an opinion here so will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If Saints score 1st you should still profit if you have chased value on the lay odds early on. We also like the chances of a 1st half goal so will be having a side trade on over 2.5 goals, trading out after a goal or at HT as usual, back in a 3rd looks likely.


Our Trading Result:
QPR opened the scoring in the 1st few minutes to reward those who got in early, we unfortunately only had £50 on the draw trade at 3.6 and nothing on the goals trade. After the goal we traded out at 5.4 with £32 for £17 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £17



Date: 14/09/08
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams:Hannover V Mönchengladbach - SCORE: 5 - 1

Our Recommendation:
3 games in Hannover are sitting at the bottom of the Bundesliga, with their only points coming from a 0-0 draw. This match is the perfect chance from them to kick start their season as over the last few years they have won 70% of their home matches against promoted teams, and found themselves with a goal inside the 1st 45 min's in 80% of these encounters. They have also never lost at home to a team with Mönchengladbach current ranking. We are a little concerned Mönchengladbach will be on a high from their unexpected win over Werder Bremen so rather than back Hannover we prefer to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. It makes sense to chase some value just incase Gladbach score 1st. We will also be having a side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half. Same trade out plan as usual on both trades.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.46. Hannover opened the scoring for us to trade out at 4.8 with £69 on the draw trade and 1.63 with £65 on the goals bet. Well deserved win especially after the missed penalty and a nice profit on this one.


Profit made on this trade = £60



Date: 14/09/08
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams:Tottenham V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1 - 2

Our Recommendation:
This probably won't need much explaining to most of you. Spurs at home are a banker for a goal, scoring in 92% of their games last season. When it comes to defending they frequently concede, doing so in 81% of their home games and all 3 this season. Against a Villa side that are strong offensively scoring an average of 2 goals a game on their travels we should see Spurs concede but would support them also scoring as Villa rarely keep a clean sheet on the road. Both teams are highly likely to score and concede here as they have done so in the last 4 H2H meetings. Spurs have the better recent history, winning 6 and avoiding defeat in the last 10 so we are a little concerned for Villa although they have looked the more impressive of the two at this early stage of the season. It makes sense to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal, and because of the odds we should be able to profit whoever scores 1st. Please feel free to chase value if you want. The over 2.5 goals market is also of interest inplay during the 1st half as a side trade. Usual trade out plan on both these trades.

Our Trading Result:
Well, we layed the draw at 3.45 with £60 of the £100 we were looking to get on and didn't get anything on the goals market as Villa opened the scoring 5 min's in. This did enable us to get out at 3.95 with £52 and enjoy the rest of the match for a small profit of £7. David also traded this match with his members for a bigger profit.


Profit made on this trade = £7



Date: 16/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Marseille V Liverpool - SCORE: 1 - 2

Our Recommendation:
10 years ago this would have been clash of the Titian's, but neither have won a league title in over 10 years. Will this be Liverpool's year for the Premiership or Champions League title? Well they just beat Man Utd and have had their best start to a season since Benitez took over. They also carry pretty strong recent Champions League form, only losing 1 of the last 10, scoring in all these matches (27 goals) which included a 4-0 away win over Marseille, so signs are good. Both teams come into this match without a domestic loss in the last 5 which highlights they are in good form and they both see themselves in 2nd place in their respective leagues. This match is likely to be cagey to start as neither team will want their Champions League Competition to start with a loss so we should be able to chase value in the odds. We are a little concerned both teams will be happy with a draw here so won't be backing either side although we do see both team on the score sheet, and if Liverpool are able to field the team we all want to see they should win here.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. It shouldn't matter who scores 1st as we will be able to trade out in profit. We do feel you will have enough time to chase some value so please feel free to do so.

A small side trade on over 2.5 goals later in the 1st half once the game has opened up is likely to pay off, so we will look to do this if all the signs are there. Usual trade out plan if we don't see a goal by HT, back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 2.96. Regrettably we were waiting for our bet to be accepted on the goals market when the 1st goal came. This did enable us to trade out at 3.55 with £82 for £17 on the win. Those who were chasing a better price would have been given over 5.0 once Liverpool took the lead about 10 min's later.


Profit made on this trade = £17



Date: 17/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Steaua Bucuresti v Bayern Munich - SCORE: 0 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Steaua haven't performed well in Europe since the 80's. They have only picked up 4 wins in their last 30 Champions League matches, with no wins in the last 10, conceding in 100% of these. Looking at their squad this season it could be their year to make it through the group stages. Domestically they have done well in their recent games winning 4 of the last 5, so we aren't expecting this to be a walk in the park for Bayern. They do have have selection issues with 6 of their key players out including their Capt Mirel Radoi so Bayern look to have the stronger side on paper coming into this match. We originally felt this would be a score draw because Steaua's stadium and fans are like a 12 man, but considering their injury list we give this to Bayern. Since Kinsman took the helm at Bayern they have looked reinvigorated especially in their last 2 games, avoiding defeat in the last 5. They have perticuarly looked dangerous on the counter attack which we feel Steaua will have difficulty containing.

The best option here is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. It makes sense to chase a better price by staggering your stake just incase Steaua score 1st. We feel you will see a 1st half goal here so will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market in play. Trading out after a goal or at HT as usual with no loss on under 2.5, back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half.

Usual trade out plan if the match is goalless when the draw odds reach 1.8. The 0-0 is their for your consideration, should you be concerned the match will finish goalless.

Update: Draw price has shortened quite a bit so less chasing of the price is needed


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.25 and backed over 2.5 goals with half the stake we were looking to get on at 2.78. Bayern scored after 15 mins for us to trade out at on both trades. Getting out at 4.7 with £68 on the draw bet and 1.68 with £40 on the goals bet for £44 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £44



Date: 18/09/08
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Uefa Cup
Teams: Napoli V Benfica - SCORE: 3 - 2

Our Recommendation:
Napoli have started the season with a bang, registering two decent results against teams we normally would consider superior to them. They also had a very good showing in the intertoto Cup battering Albanian side Vllaznia 8-0 on aggregate and haven't lost in the last 5. Scoring definitely hasn't been an issue at this early point in the season and we see them scoring in this encounter. Benfica on the other hand, despite having a much superior line up to Napoli have failed to impress in their opening two matches, but have the players in their squad to defeat Napoli if they are firing on all cylinders. They are not to happy about playing the Uefa Cup having finished a disappointing 4th place last season, missing the Champions League places, so we aren't to sure where their heads will be in this match, but with it being probably their only chance of winning anything this season, they should be focused.

Another 6 weeks into the season we would have given this to Benfica but with Napoli's young squad performing their socks off so far this season, and Benfica looking a little below par we see them avoiding defeat here.

We feel laying the draw and trading out after a goal is the best option. It shouldn't matter who scores 1st but ideally Napoli as the odds are shorter.

We also feel you will see a 1st half goal here so will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay, staggering our stake for value and trading out after a goal. The odds are quite high but still stagger your stake incase you need to trade out at HT or you will be left with a rather uncomfortable liability.

Usual plan if we don't see one before HT on the goals bet and 1.8 on the draw.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.25 and backed over 2.5 goals with £25 of the £50 we were looking to get on at 2.56 before we saw 3 goals in 4 min's. No real chance to trade out here with our trade out draw bet not getting accepted before the 3rd goal. Most members reported the same situation with trading out on this one. We managed to get out at 4.2 with £76 on the draw bet and had no chance of trading out on the goals bet so £53 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £53



Date: 20/09/08
Time: 12.45hrs GMT

Fixture: Premiership

Teams: Sunderland V Middlesbrough - SCORE: 2 - 0

Trading Preview:
Sunderland haven't won at home in 3 games but their last home win was against Middlesbrough (3-2) so this should give them some faith they can pick up their 1st home win of the season. Middlesbrough on their travel haven't won in over 10 games and have conceded in all these matches. This probably won't be the best display of Premiership football but we should see both teams fighting for the win a few goals due to silly errors, at least 1 from either team and as the draw odds are fairly evenly matches we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal from either side. Please feel free to stagger your stake for shorter odds. The over 2.5 goals market is also of interest as we see a 1st half goal here so will be trading out after a goal or at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. Back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half.

Usual trade out point of 1.8 on the draw if it remains goalless, loss on draw backing the 0-0 is their for your consideration should you feel the game will finish goalless.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.15 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.86. Suprisingly we went into the break goalless so traded out for no loss on the goals bet at 6 as usual. Those who asked us about the 0-0 we highlighted we were pretty confident they wouldn't need it. The 1st goal didn't come until the odds were around 1.75, unfortunatley we had traded out at 1.8 with £95 as usual with the loss on the draw. As the match finished 2-0 we ended with £5 profit. Lots of members waited so would have made a nice profit.

Profit made on this trade = £5


Date: 20/09/08
Time: 14.30hrs GMT

Fixture: Bundesliga

Teams: Mönchengladbach V Hertha Berlin - SCORE: 0 - 1

Trading Preview:
Whilst these two are leaky as an old tap we are expecting a tight start. This is supported by Hertha's record against newly promoted teams over recent seasons. But we should see goals later in the game. Gladbagh have scored in their last 10 matches at home and have conceded in all their matches since promotion. Hertha have seen both teams score in 6 of their last 7 on their travels and the last 4 recent H2H meetings have seen both sides on the scoresheet with Gladbach winning their last encounter 3-1.

There isn't much money on this match so you might have to wait for the market to be formed before getting in. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from the home side. You should have enough time to chase a decent price so please feel free to stagger your stake.

We will look to have a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market later in the 1st half once their is some money on the market. Same plan as above when trading out.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.45 with £60 of the £100 we were looking to get on and didn't get in on the goals bet as the 1st goal came too early for us. We traded out at 4.0 with £50 so £9 overall.

Profit made on this trade = £9


Date: 20/09/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT

Fixture: Premiership

Teams: West Ham V Newcastle - SCORE: 3 - 1

Trading Preview:
Zola's 1st game in charge of the Hammer so this should be interesting with players looking to prove themselves. Newcastle will be confident here despite all their management issues as West Ham have only taken 3 points of them once in the last 10 meetings. Saying this West Ham are a tough nut to crack at home and are unbeaten in 5 at home, winning 3 and scoring at least 2 goals in their last 5 and with Newcastle looking troubled up front this season we feel West Ham with break the trend today.

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from the Hammers. If you chase a shorter price you should be safe if Newcastle score 1st. The over 2.5 goals market is of interest so we will be have our usual side trade on this market inplay during the 1st half, trading out after a goal or at HT as usual.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.5 and got £10 of the £50 we were looking to get on the goals market. The 1st goal again came early but from how the game started we took the initive to get a little on the goals market. After the goal we traded out at 4.9 with £68 on the draw bet and 1.35 with £10 on the goals. Overall £37


Profit made on this trade = £37


Date: 21/09/08
Time: 12.00hrs GMT

Fixture: Premiership

Teams: West Brom V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1 - 2

Trading Preview:
West Brom come into this match after a better than expected start to the season and some signs they will be able to hold their own in the Premiership. Villa won't be looking forward to this derby match as they are historically hard fought and this will be their 3rd match in 7 days so we are likely to see some tired Villa players out there. Villa did rest Davies, Carew and Ashley Young for the midweek encounter so they will have a few players with fresh legs for this encounter. H2H is strongly in Villa's favour with West Brom picking up their last win in 1985. If Villa can perform like they did against Spurs earlier in the week we should see them win here but do feel West Brom could hold out for the draw if Villa aren't firing on all cylinders. The most supported trend is goals for this match with just under 75% of Villas away matches over the last 2 seasons finishing over 2.5 goals and Villa's strong scoring record on the road. West Brom rarely keep a clean sheet at home and have conceded in the last 7 consecutive matches so we see Villa definately on the score sheet. It makes sense to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal as the odds will move in our favour whoever scores. We will also be having a side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay, trading out after a goal or at HT for no loss on under 2.5, by laying over with the same stake, back in if 3 look likely in the 2nd half.
Usual trade out plan if the match is goalless when the draw odds reach 1.8.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.64. Villa opened the scoring after 27 mins for us to trade out on the draw bet at 4.6 with £70. As you know the market was only unsuspended for a matter of seconds so we ended up not being able to trade out on the goals bet until after the 2nd goal. Most members got caught out the other way around so would have been given excellent trade out odds for the main draw trade. We got out on the goals bet at 1.16 with £80 for an overall profit of £94


Profit made on this trade = £94


Date: 21/09/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT

Fixture: Premiership

Teams: Hull V Everton - SCORE: 2 - 2

Trading Preview:
Hull have shocked most of us with an excellent start to their Premiership campaign, picking up 2 wins and a draw from their opening 4 games. Whether they can continue this start we will have to seen but if they can buck Everton's trend of avoiding defeat against promoted sides (17 games without a loss) this will add some weight to this argument. These two haven't met since 1964 so we don't have any recent H2H history but from both teams start to the season this looks close but we see Everton just edging the win. We will be laying the draw just incase Hull open the scoring and trading out after a goal. We should be safe if this happens as the odds are fairly close. Everton also have a strong 1st goal record against promoted teams so feel we will see them on the score sheet in the 1st half so will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 and back over 2.5 goals with £25 at 2.36 of the £50 we were looking to get on. The 1st goal came after 18 mins from Hull for us to trade out at 3.8 with £87 on the draw bet and 1.5 with £35 on the on the goals bet for £23 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £23


Date: 21/09/08
Time: 16.00hrs GMT

Fixture: Bundesliga

Teams: Stuttgart V Karlsruhe - SCORE: 3 - 1

Trading Preview:
Its Derby day in another one of our selections today. Stuttgart have a superb record over Karlsruhe winning all encounters back to 1990. They usually win these encounter comfortably by a couple of goals. Stuttgart's recent home form supports this and so does Karlsruhe's record of conceding on their travels. Stuttgart have a strong record of scoring early at home which is what we are expecting to see here so will be backing over 2.5 goals here, staggering out stake during the 1st half and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one at HT we will look to trade out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. If 3 look likely in the 2nd half we will look to get back in.

Our Trading Result:
The market didn't really form here regrettably but for those who got in (not us) would have been rewarded by 4 goals.


Profit made on this trade = £n/a


Date: 22/09/08
Time: 19.15hrs GMT

Fixture: Bundesliga 2

Teams: G Furth v Kaiserslautern - SCORE: 0 - 1

Trading Preview:
Last season we would have layed Kaiserslautern in this encounter but not this year. They are scoring for fun at the moment hitting the back of the net 13 times in 4 matches. As you would expect with this attacking style of play they have also conceded in all these matches but have remained undefeated. Their opponents here G Furth have also been looking superb on the counter attack hitting the back of the net 12 times in their 4 matches and again have conceded in all their matches this season. Neither team seems to bothered about playing defensively so we should see a few goals here. The last time they met was back in February but neither team looked as sharp as they do now so we aren't expecting another 1-0. Not really a match we want to pick a winner from, but we should see some goals and laying the draw will payout whoever scores.

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal and having our usual side trade over 2.5 goals inplay, staggering our back stake on the goals bet inplay. If you want to chase a better price on the lay bet feel free, but don't wait too long just incase.

Usual trade out plan here on the goals bet at HT if it remains goalless, back in if a 3rd looks likely with more than 15mins min's left of play and 1.8 on the draw if we don't see a goal before this point.

We do have a niggling feeling they might cancel each other out in this match so will be putting £5 on the 0-0 at the 20.0 that is currently available. You can always trade out of this if your confident goals are coming.

Our Trading Result:
What a depressing 1st half... Definitely not the start we were expecting. But the reason we decided to mention the £5 0-0 bet in the preview. Anyway we layed the draw at average odds of 3.6 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.19 with £25. The match went into the break goalless but we weren't surprised as the game was poor. We traded out at 4.3 on the goals bet for no loss should the match finish under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with £25 as usual. The 2nd half was much better with Kaiserslautern taking the lead 62 min's in for us to trade out at average odds of 4.53 with £78 for £21 profit on the win and £16 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £16


Date: 23/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT

Fixture: Carling Cup

Teams: Swansea V Cardiff - SCORE: 1 - 0

Trading Preview:
This should be an entertaining one to watch. The 2008 FA Cup finalists Cardiff City travel to the Liberty Stadium to take on arch-rivals Swansea City in the most anticipated fixture in the Welsh football calendar. They haven't met in a match of any substance in 10 years but will be going H2H 3 times this season as they are both in the same league for the 1st time in around 25 years. The last time they met it ended in a goalless stalemate. We aren't expecting it tonight as this will be one of only a few matches we expect the teams to play to their full potential. Its worth noting the previous 20 meetings all had goals and the majority of them opened the scoring in the 1st half. Domestically Cardiff have had the better start, unbeaten so far this season and have been playing quite defensive football so they might take a while to be broken down, but we can't see them not going for it tonight and see both sides scoring in this encounter, with a few yellow cards for sure.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal from either side. We will also be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay during the 1st half. Please feel free to stagger your stake.

Usual trade out on the goals bet if we don't see any 1st half goals. Out at HT for no loss on under 2.5, back in if 3 look likely with more than 15mins left. Out at 1.8 on the draw as usual if it remains goalless (loss on the draw)



Our Trading Result:
Great high tempo match with plenty of cards as expected. We layed the draw at 3.2 and back over 2.5 goals at average odds of 3.04. No goal in the 1st half but we were concerned this could be a match with late goals and wasn't short of chances in the 1st half. Rarely we send out a email to our basic members if we change the preview inplay (only happened twice in 12 months) advising members not to trade out at HT on the goals bet as we were expecting an early goal, and the draw odds were high at HT over 6. We were right about the goal it came a short way into the 2nd half for members to trade out at 4.2 with no loss on under on the goals bet. We had a bit of a disagreement ourselves about this market so agreed to split the loss after the goal for a £13 loss on under 2.5. As this puts us in a worst position than the preview we will report it and take a slap on the wrists for changing our plans which always try not to. We got out at 5.0 on the draw trade with £65 for £33 on the win and £21 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £21


Date: 24/09/08
Time: 19.30hrs GMT

Fixture: Serie A

Teams: Napoli V Palermo- SCORE: 2 - 1

Trading Preview:
Napoli are one of the stand out teams for us this season. Unbeaten so far having overcome teams you would expect to easily dispose of them. They take on a Palermo side that is also showing signs of ability and remain undefeated since the arrival of new coach Ballardini, but yet to be challenge on their travels. Both teams are missing a key influential player and Napoli are also missing their home fans due to their previous bad behavior. Even without Lavezzi and their home fans we feel Napoli will score here as Palermo have looked very average defensively, hence their record of conceding in 9 of the last 10. Palermo are yet to defeat Napoli at Stadio San Paolo and we can't see it happening here although they are capable of grabbing a draw.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Napoli although we should be able to trade out for no loss if Palermo open the scoring. We like the probability of a 1st half goal as Napoli have looked very sharp on the attack, scoring for fun in most their matches so far this season. Normally they start on the offensive so the over 2.5 goals is of interest inplay during the 1st half, staggering our stake as usual. Usual trade out plan on the goals bet, out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. Out at 1.8 on the draw if it remains goalless, loss on the draw.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.15 and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.14 with only £15 of the £50 we were looking to get on as our next bet didn't get accepted before the opener after 14 min's. The goal from Napoli enabled us to trade out at 4.2 with 72 quid on the draw bet and 1.55 with £20 on the goals bet for £32 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £32


Date: 25/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT

Fixture: Blue Square Premier

Teams: Grays Athletic V Stevenage Town - SCORE: 1 - 2

Trading Preview:
Grays are a decent home side, only losing 1 of their last 10. They do have issues in defence though, and have conceded in the last 10 consecutive matches, and 9 of the last 10 at home. Against a Stevenage side that has put 2 past them in the last 3 H2H meetings we should definitely see them concede again here. Stevenage didn't have the best start to the season but seem to have found their form winning their last 3 matches and scoring 10 goals in these matches. We should be safe here to lay the draw and trade out after a goal from either side. Please feel free to chase a better price but you will see a positive movement in the odds if we have a goal from either side at the current odds. The over 2.5 goals market is also of interest so we will be having our usual side trade on this market inplay during the 1st half.

To show you a different way of trading 'lay the draw' matches we will be backing the 0-0 with enough to cover our total liability (15-20 quid) (current odds 15.5) and laying the draw as highlighted above. We will not be trading out at 1.8 if we don't see a goal, this will enable you to see the match out and stay in for the last 20 min's or so. We will follow the normal plan on the goals trade getting out at HT for no loss on under 2.5, back in if there are more than 15 min's left and a 3rd looks likely.

Our Trading Result:
We backed the 0-0 at 15.5 with £18, layed the draw at 3.5 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.5 as a side trade. The match went into the break goalless so we traded out as usual at HT on the goals bet at average odds of 4.3. The 2nd half started with a bang with a goal coming 3 min's in which was followed by two more inside 5 min's. When considering goals come on average every 38mins and matches that are goalless at HT only see 3 goals 13% of the time, this was highly unusual. We managed to get out on the draw trade at 4.5 with £76 and only £25 back on the goals market at 1.35 before the 3rd, although we won't report this in the P&L because only a handful of us managed this despite advising the inplay chaps and the few we managed to get back to before the 3rd to back over again or lay under 2.5 to minimise their potential loss on the goals trade. So overall £42 loss.


Profit made on this trade = -£42


Date: 26/09/08
Time: 19.30hrs GMT

Fixture:Bundesliga

Teams: FC Koln V Schalke SCORE: 1 - 0

Trading Preview:
Newly promoted FC Koln look to be on a downward slide having now lost 3 on the bounce, with a very poor show against 2nd division Mainz 05 in their most recent match. They definitely look to be lacking in confidence, taking more time on the pitch to make decisions than you would expect. Against a Schalke side that is in great shape, winning their last 5, scoring well and defensively conceded less goals than any other team so far in the Bundesliga, we can't see KC Koln taking anything from this match especially with their Captain sitting this one out. Schalke always push for a 1st half lead and have a very strong record of scoring 1st so we should see them ahead before HT. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Schalke. If Koln score 1st the odds might shorten a little so it makes sense to chase shorter price than the 3.85 currently available. We will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay as usual. Out at HT if we don't see any goals, back in if a 3rd looks likely and more than 15 min's are left. We shouldn't need to worry about backing the 0-0 here as Schalke have scored in their last 10 games and the last 10 H2H meetings.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.55 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.7. FC Koln opened the scoring just before HT for us to trade out at 3.45 on the draw bet with £103 (a little concerned Schalke would equalise) and 2.14 on the goals with £60 for £6 on under 2.5 so overall £6.


Profit made on this trade = £6


Date: 27/09/08
Time: 12.45hrs GMT

Fixture:Premiership

Teams: Everton V Liverpool SCORE: 0 - 2

Trading Preview:
Merseyside derby day! Everton are yet to register points at home this season and Liverpool are undefeated. Both teams come into this encounter after dropping points against promoted teams so should be focused for this match. This match always sees card's with a red card very likely as both teams chase bragging rights. Most people expect a low score match here, which in general is what you see when Liverpool play top half finishes on the road but with Everton struggling defensively so far this season, conceding in their last 10 matches and 7 of the last 8 H2H encounters finishing over 2.5 goals we feel you will see 3 or more goals here. Everton don't just look like conceding as their attacking force is very likely to cause Liverpool issues so we see both teams on the score sheet here. We are not confident enough to back Liverpool, despite feeling they will walk away with 3 points so will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal from either side. The odds will move in a positive direction whoever scores, so you won't have yesterdays issue that some had. Feel free as always to chase value. We also feel you will see a 1st half goal so will be laying under 2.5 goals, instead of backing over 2.5 staggering our stake for shorter average odds as a side trade. Trading out at HT for no loss on under(by back under with the same stake, back in if 3 look likely in the 2nd half with more than 15 min's left.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.1 and layed under 2.5 goals at average odds of 1.41. Liverpool were obviously in control but we went in to the break goalless so traded out on the goal bet at 1.22 with the loss on over 2.5. Torres opened the scoring 59 min's in for us to trade out on the draw trade at 5.4 with £50. A few min's later they scored again and a minute or so after this point they were attacking again so we got back in on the goals bet at 2.4 moving the loss onto under 2.5 as their was still 30 min's left and Liverpool had upped the tempo, making us quite concerned. We probably made this decision a bit too quickly as trading out splitting the loss would have guaranteed a profit of around £20 but because of this we ended overall with a loss of £20.


Profit made on this trade = -£20


Date: 27/09/08
Time: 14.30hrs GMT

Fixture:Bundesliga

Teams: Bochum V Leverkusen SCORE: 2 - 3

Trading Preview:
Leverkusen are the Bundesliga's sharp shooters so far this year hitting the back of the net 15 times in 5 games, they rarely keep a clean sheet on their travels though, so we should see them scoring and conceding in this match which is supported by Bochum's home scoring record (77%) and the previous H2H meetings between these two. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal from from either side. We will chase a better price as usual inplay and will also be having our usual side trade on over 2.5 goals. Out at HT on the goals trade if we don't see a 1st half goal, back in if a 3rd looks likely and more than 15 min's left and 1.8 on the draw if it remains goalless, loss on the draw.

Our Trading Result:
Regrettably we didn't pay much early attention to this match just putting half our lay stake on and turning our attentions back to the Liverpool game, but on a positive note we did get half on and we did advise all that asked us to get half on the lay bet early whilst the Liverpool match played out. Unfortunately we didn't get any on the goals bet before the goal. We got in at 3.7 and out at 5.5 after the goal with £33 for £16 on the win. Well done to Karl who got in early on both these bets!


Profit made on this trade = £16


Date: 27/09/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT

Fixture:Premiership

Teams:Middlesbrough V West Brom SCORE: 0 - 1

Trading Preview:
Southgates' 100th game in charge of Middlesbrough, lets hope its a positive result! Most trends support a home win as Boro are one of the most difficult home teams to defeat. Over the last 5 years newly promoted teams rarely have walked away with points, with Boro winning 75% of these encounters. The most recent H2H meetings with Boro at home support this with Boro taking points from all the meetings, we have also seen goals in the last 12 meetings. We see Boro definitely on the score sheet here so will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal (stagger your stake as the odds might not move much if West Brom take the lead) trading out after a goal. We will also be having our usual side trade on over 2.5 goals, trading at after a goal or at HT for no loss on under 2.5, back in if a 3rd looks likely and more than 15 min's left.

Our Trading Result:
It took a while for us to get in on this one but we got average odds of 3.3 on the draw and average odds of 2.96 on the goals bet. We went into the break goalless so we traded out at 4.5 average odds for no loss on under 2.5 goals as usual. West Brom opened the scoring after 53 min's. Although we felt they would defend this with all their ability we didn't want to risk waiting too long for the odds to drift for a decent profit so we traded out at 3.35 with £100 which left us with a profit of £5 on the draw but they did manage to pull this off so no profit.


Profit made on this trade = £0


Date: 28/09/08
Time: 16.00hrs GMT

Fixture:Bundesliga

Teams:Karlsruher V Wolfsburg SCORE: 2 - 1

Trading Preview:
This is the trade we are most looking forward to this weekend. If we don't see goals the man upstairs has something against us. Every time we have seen these two play the match has always had 3 goals with both teams scoring. To support this Wolfsburg have been involved in more over 2.5 goals matches than any other team in the Bundesliga over the last few seasons with their last 5 away matches seeing them conceding 2 goals in all these matches and scoring a minimum of 2 in each. Draws are very rare between these two and Karlsruher have the better history when playing at home but Wolfsburg look the sharper team which means the only real option for us is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal, you will be able to profit whoever scores 1st as the odds are fairly even with the current draw odds of 3.5. Please feel free to chase a shorter price if you want. The over 2.5 goals market is definitely of interest and is highly likely to deliver a 1st half goal so we will be having a side trade on this market inplay, during the 1st half.

If we don't see any goals before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual back in if a 3rd looks likely and more than 15 min's left, probably splitting the lose. Out at 1.8 on the draw if we don't see a goal.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.4 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.8. The match didn't even generate a corner until 30 min's in but seemed to open up from this point onwards. We went into the break goalless so traded out at average odds of 4.5 for no loss on under 2.5. Karlsruher opened the scoring unfortunately so the odds barely moved for us to trade out at 3.45 with £100 for a small profit if the match ended in a draw on the main trade (at this point we felt Wolfsburg to equalise). 70 min's in Wolfsburg lost Líbano which got us nervous about the goals bet and as expected Karlsruher scored again. At this point we had no real choice but to get back in and if we had made the same decision as we did in the recent Liverpool match all would have been fine but we only managed to get £28 back on the goals market to get caught out by a Wolfsburg goal so overall a £58 loss. Lets hope the Milan Derby brings us some good news.


Profit made on this trade = -£58


Date: 28/09/08
Time: 19.30hrs GMT

Fixture: Serie A

Teams:AC Milan V Inter Milan SCORE: 1 - 0

Trading Preview:
Always one of the most anticipated matches of the season. Inter are sitting top 4 games in and Milan have improved after losing their opening two, to bounce back and win the next two. The last time these two met Inter left most their key players out thinking they could beat Milan and were punished for this, losing 2-1. This time out expect to see a 1st choice team ready to reap revenge. Inter have the better H2H recent history and most people expect them to win here but we aren't 100% convinced of this after seeing a few re-runs of their recent matches. We do feel both sides will score here and with only 1 draw in the last 15 meetings we are likely to see a winner. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, the draw odds are pretty short already but they probably won't move much whoever scores so please feel free to chase value. Definitely worth looking at the over 2.5 goals market inplay during the 1st half as a side trade.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 2.92 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.96. Decent match with plenty of chances and a goal at the best possible time when trading these two markets together. We got out at 1.93 on the goals trade and 3.65 on the draw trade for an overall profit of £47.


Profit made on this trade = £47


Date: 29/09/08
Time: 19.30hrs GMT

Fixture: Ligue 2

Teams:Clermont V Strasbourg SCORE: 2 - 2

Trading Preview:
Clermont have a tough challenge ahead of them when they taking on top of the table Strasbourg in this encounter. Strasbourg are undefeated home and away winning 6 of the last 7. Scoring definitely hasn't been an issues hitting the back of the net on average twice a match home and away this season. Against the better teams in the league they are likely to concede as defensively they aren't 100% so we expect to see Clermont on the score sheet which is supported by them scoring in the last 6 matches. These two haven't met as far as we remember so their isn't any recent H2H form but with Claremont losing their other matches against other top 5 teams this season we should see Strasbourg walk away with 3 points.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal from either team as the odds are fairly even at the moment. There isn't much money on the over 2.5 goals markets so if you want a side trade on this it might be worth sticking to a smaller stake of £25, for trade out purposes. Usual plan on the goals market, out at HT for no loss on under, back in if a 3rd looks likely and more than 15 min's left. If the draw odds reach 1.8 before we see a goal we will trade out with the loss on the draw.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.2 and backed over 2.5 goals with £10 of the £25 we were looking to get on. Strasbourg opened the scoring early on for us to trade out of both bets. We got out at 4.3 with £73 on the draw trade and 1.64 with £15 on the goals trade for £26 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £26


Date: 30/09/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT

Fixture: Champions League

Teams:Fenerbahce V Dynamo Kyiv SCORE: 0 - 0

Trading Preview:
Fenerbahce have had a misfiring start to their domestic season and need a win here to get their season back on track. Looking at just the results you would definitely support them winning here as they posess a storming home record in Europe beating Chelsea, Inter, PSV and Sevilla in their last 4 home games, losing just one of their last 10, scoring an average of 2 goals in these matches. Their opponents here Dynamo have a pretty poor record in this competition with no wins in the last 10 and have conceded in all these matches in general at least twice. So it looks like a home win yes? Well unfortunately Fenerbahce have an injury list as long as the channel tunnel and Dynamo are currently playing out of their skin so it looks more like a draw to us at the moment. Expect Kâzım Kâzım and Güiza to cause Dynamo no end of problems but also expect Dynamo to score as Fenerbahce's defensive line up is rather suspect. Whilst we want to back the home side here it makes sense to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. If you can get a better price (3.5 ish or lower) than the current 3.75 it makes sense because Dynamo scoring 1st is likely to only cause a small positive movement. A 1st half goal is well supported in these two's previous results so we will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay. Usual trade out plan on the goals bet, out at HT for no loss on under by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. If a 3rd looks likely and more than 15 min's are left we will look to get back in. If the match is goalless when the draw odds reach 1.8 we will trade out with the loss on the draw as we do expect at least one goal. We will be putting a small amount on the 0-0 here around £5 at the 15 that is currently available. You can always trade out of this if your confident goals are coming.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.4 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.62 and put £5 on the 0-0 at 15. We went into the brake goalless despite some good chances so we traded out for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. Whilst we felt this would end in a draw a score draw was on the cards for us so we traded when the draw odds reached 1.8 with the loss on the draw. Unfortunately no goal after we traded out so a loss of £93.


Profit made on this trade = -£93

 

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