Traders Advantage Results

October 2007 trading advice given

Profit for Month = £1187

Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed results table below)

Date
Teams
Score
Profit
01/10/07
Tottenham V Aston Villa
4 - 4
£23
02/10/07
Stuttgart V Barcelona
0 - 2
£47
03/10/07
Benfica V Shakhtar Donetsk
0 - 1
-£100
04/10/07
Everton v Metallist Kharkiv
3 - 2
£81
05/10/07
FC Koln V Offenbacher K
4 -1
-£65
06/10/07
Hertha BSC V Energie Cottbus
0 -0
-£40
06/10/07
Aston Villa V West Ham
1 -0
£71
06/10/07
Valencia v Espanyol
1 -2
£36
07/10/07
Blackburn V Birmingham
2 - 1
£125
07/10/07
Fulham V Portsmouth
0 - 2
£62
08/10/07
QPR V Norwich
1 - 0
-£50
09/10/07
Cambridge Utd v Rushden & D
1 - 0
£45
10/10/07
Tenerife v Malaga
1 - 2
£82
11/10/07
Oxford United V Torquay
3 - 3
£44
12/10/07
Shamrock Rovers V Drogheda
0 - 2
£38
13/10/07
Scotland V Ukraine
3 - 1
£37
13/10/07
Northwich v Exeter
0 - 0
-£50
13/10/07
Rep of Ireland V Germany
0 - 0
£72
14/10/07
Elche V Malaga
2 - 0
£87
15/10/07
Luton v Northampton
4 - 1
£26
16/10/07
Halifax v Grays Athletic
0 - 0
£51
17/10/07
Russia V England
2 - 1
£90
17/10/07
Georgia V Scotland
2 - 0
£71
17/10/07
Germany V Czech Republic
0 - 3
-£35
18/10/07
Stevenage V Burton
3- 3
£26
20/10/07
Everton V Liverpool
1 - 2
£80
20/10/07
Wigan V Portsmouth
0 - 2
£130
20/10/07
Aston Villa v Manchester United
1 - 3
- £59
21/10/07
Southampton V Cardiff
1 - 0
£10
21/10/07
West Ham V Sunderland
1 - 1
£34
22/10/07
Newcastle V Tottenham
3 - 1
£24
23/10/07
PSV V Fenerbahce
0 - 0
-£41
24/10/07
W Bremen v Lazio
2 - 1
£35
24/10/07
Benfica V Celtic
1 - 0
£23
25/10/07
Bolton V Braga
1 - 1
£28
26/10/07
Vitesse v Willem II
1 - 0
£109
27/10/07
Birmingham v Wigan
3 - 2
£50
27/10/07
Portsmouth V West Ham
0 - 0
-£77
28/10/07
Derby V Everton
0 - 2
£43
28/10/07
Osasuna v Valladolid
2 - 2
- £57
29/10/07
Crystal Palace V Watford
0 - 2
£40
30/10/07
Coventry V West Ham
1 - 2
£21
31/10/07
Sheffield Utd V Arsenal
0 - 3
£20

 

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Trades Completed in Detail

Date: 01/10/07
Time: 20.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams:Tottenham V Aston Villa - SCORE: 4 - 4
Our Recommendation:
The most recent encounter between these two sides was less than a year ago, in December 2006, with Spurs carving out a narrow 2 - 1 victory. Looking at current form, Villa have won three of their last four games but are yet to win or score away this season. Last season Villa had the 3rd best away scoring record in the Premiership, we are hoping they are just slow starters this season. Tottenham have lost 4 of the last 7, and have only one League win to date, and that was against the current bottom of the league Derby. Previous form between these two, when Tottenham have been at home, leans towards the Tottenham win and over 2.5 goals, but we feel with Villa's current form we should look at the safer option of Lay the draw. So we will be laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after a goal. We will also be backing the 0-0 final score as this has been the final result in 3 /14 matches.

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.55 on the lay bet and 12.5 on the 0-0 draw. There was no need to worry about the 0-0 here! What a game, 4 goals in the first half. We got half our trade out bet match at 5.0 then another goal was scored driving the odds back down, we then waited until half time trading out the rest of our stake at 5.9 giving us average odds of 5.45 for £33 profit on the win minus our 0-0 bet of £10 for £23 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £
23


Date: 02/10/07
Time:19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Stuttgart V Barcelona - SCORE: 0 - 2
Our Recommendation:
9 of the last 10 away games that Barcelona have played in the Champions League have finished under 2.5 goals. In fact they have only score in 3 of the games. Its not just away they have problems as 8 of their last 9 home matches have also been goalless at half time. Stuttgart have only played four group games at home, but 3 of these have finished -2.5 goals. We feel this match is likely to follow a similar trend until around half time so we will be backing under 2.5 goals at around 2.18 on Betfair and trading out under 1.8.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 2.16. A couple of early chances but no early goals as expected. We traded out 35 min's in at 1.47 with £147 for £45 profit on both options. The game finished under 2.5 so if you waited you would have take over £110 profit



Profit made on this trade = £45



Date: 03/10/07
Time:19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Benfica V Shakhtar Donetsk - SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Benfica come into this match unbeaten this season in the Portuguese Liga. Shakhtar Donetsk are in good form, having won 10 of their opening 11 games in their domestic league. Looking at both teams performances in the Champions League. Benfica have won 62% of their previous home games and only lost 2. Shakhtar are yet to win an away game losing 5 of 6. We feel this is enough to recommend the home win for Benfica and at the current odds of 2.12 on Betfair they are good value. So to confirm we will be backing Benfica to win and trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.12. Lots of action especially yellow cards but unfortunately no goals for Benfica. The one and only goal came from Shakhtar just before half time. We were in two minds to trade out on this one but decided to trust the stats and it went against us. No worries we will make it up over the next couple of trades.



Profit made on this trade = - £100



Date: 04/10/07
Time:19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: UEFA CUP (second leg)
Teams: Everton v Metallist Kharkiv - SCORE: 3 - 2
Our Recommendation:
In the first leg, Metallist showed they were actually quite a decent football team when they visited Goodison Park two weeks ago (you might remember we traded on the goals marked). At times, the Ukrainians were very lucky, especially when Andy Johnson missed two penalties! With the Ukraine being a very difficult place for English sides to do well, and with Kharkiv on high after the biggest result in their history, this isn’t going to be an easy win. We are going to lay the draw around 3.5 if possible and trade out after a goal hopefully from Everton. You could consider covering the 0 - 0 draw just incase, but it is rare for Everton to finish with this result.

Our Trading Result:
The odds weren't where we wanted until after Metallist scored 21 min's in so we got in at 3.5 after the goal. Everton were looking very lost during the first half. But just after half time lescott equalised for Everton shortning the odds forcing us to wait for another. Metallist quickly responded driving the odds up to 3.8 where some members got out, we missed the boat as we asked for 4.1 and it was never offered. After Everton scored their second goal, Metallist's tempo slowed down and Everton fought back harder. For those of you who were watching the game, you would've seen Everton score again at the 87th minute driving the' back the draw' odds right up to 20, thankyou Everton!! Here we traded out incase Metallist made a final effort to equalize.



Profit made on this trade =£81



Date: 05/10/07
Time: 14.30 hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga 2
Teams: FC Koln V Offenbacher K - SCORE: 4 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Unfortunately we wrote over our match preview. But what we can remember is on paper these teams were evenly matched and that the odds on FC Koln were too short (1.65 to win) we had them at 3.5 and we felt the bookies had it wrong or we were missing something. So we recommended laying FC Koln. We also highlighted the goals market as 3+ goals was the average score line.

Our Trading Result:
We managed to get on the goals market for a small stake of £25 and missed the lay bet as we were in the car and couldn't get a reception on our mobile to use 'Betfair Mobile'. We feel its only fair to report a loss on this one as that is what would have happen if we had got in as we would have waited for an equalizer when the score was 2-1.



Profit made on this trade =-£65



Date: 06/10/07
Time: 14.30 hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams: Hertha BSC V Energie Cottbus - SCORE: 0 - 0
Our Recommendation:
When Hertha have played defensively poor teams simular and including Cottbus over the last 3 seasons 80% of the games have finished over 2.5 goals. They also tend to score well at home averaging 2.2 goals. Head to head Hertha have won 75% of the time at home and the average score line is over 2.5 goals. We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two.Currently available on Betfair at 1.81

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.81. The game was very flat not much action certainly different to what we usually see from Hertha. We traded out at 3.7 with £60 for a £40 loss if the game finished under 2.5. We were looking to let the Villa game run which was under way at the same time, and end in profit over the two trades



Profit made on this trade =-£40



Date: 06/10/07
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Aston Villa V West Ham - SCORE: 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Over the last 3 season when Villa have played good away teams such as West Ham, just under 80% of these games have finished with a score line under 2.5 goals. Looking at Villa's recent home form over the last ten games they have averaged 1.8 goals a game. West Ham's away scoreline's are also averaging under 2.5 goals over the same period. Most the trends here point to a low score draw so we will backing under 2.5 goals and trading out when the lay odds are under 1.6. Currently available on Betfair at 1.89

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.89. We had an opportunity to trade out at 21 min's when the odds got went down to 1.59. As we had a loser on the Hertha game we decided to try and make up the loss and wait this one out until we are in profit (this is what the members who emailed us did too). Villa were fairly dominant in the first half, this switched around to West Ham in the second half so we decided to get out 70 min's in at 1.1 with £140 which gave us £71 on the under 2.5 and £39 on the over.



Profit made on this trade =£71




Date: 06/10/07
Time: 21.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Primera Division
Teams: Valencia v Espanyol - SCORE: 1 - 2
Our Recommendation:
In the Primera Division Valencia they have won their last five league games since losing on the opening day to local rivals Villarreal. They lie in third position, just one point behind leaders Real Madrid, but opponents Espanyol have also begun the season well. The Barcelona-based side have won three of their last four games and sit in sixth place, five points adrift of Valencia. Looking at the teams they are fielding we feel Valencia have this one so we will be backing Valencia to win and trading out when they take the lead. Currently available on Betfair at 1.69.

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.71. Five min's in-play Baraja scored for Valencia giving us our trade out at 1.24 with £138 for £36 profit across all options. We didn't want to wait for another as we wanted to secure the win whilst it was available to give us 2 out of 3 for the day.


Profit made on this trade =£36



Date: 07/10/07
Time: 15.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Blackburn V Birmingham - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Most trends support Blackburn winning this match up and there’s very little evidence to suggest this game will end in a draw. Our slight concern is having watch Birmingham play a few times this season, it could go against the trend. +2.5 goals looks likely so you could consider a side bet. We feel the safest option here is to lay the draw around 3.6 and trade out after a goal. Ideally we are looking for Blackburn to score first.

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.7 on the lay bet and 2.26 on the over 2.5 goals when we were researching the trades this morning. Strange thing was when the match started the market wasn't available in-play. So if you got in like us you were probably pulling your hair out until the match ended. The end result was a profit of £95 on the lay bet and £30 on the over 2.5. Cheers Betfair for this one!


Profit made on this trade =£125



Date: 07/10/07
Time: 16.10 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Fulham V Pompey - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Fulham have drawn 8 of their last 14 home matches, but only 1 has finished 0-0.It is very rare fo a goal not to be scored at Craven Cottage and, head to head, these teams have never had a goalless match, so we are confident there will be at least 1 goal. When recommending a trade on this one, it has to be lay the draw as no trends have a high enough % to be confident of a result. So we will be laying the draw at around 3.4 and trading out after a goal.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.45 early this moring. We had to wait until after half time for Pompey to break the deadlock after 50 mins, as soon as the market came un-suspended they scored again giving us great trade out odds of 10. We traded out with £34.50 for £62 profit across all options.


Profit made on this trade =£62



Date: 08/10/07
Time:19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Championship
Teams: QPR V Norwich - SCORE: 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Queens Park Rangers's disastrous home run has meant they have managed only 2 draws from the last six matches. They have also conceded a disappointing 11 goals in this period, and only managed to score 3. The away form of Norwich City is poor too, managing only 2 draws from the last six games. They have conceded 8 goals in these games, and only hit 2 in reply.

Q.P.R. find themselves stuck right at the bottom of the division desperate for a win. Norwich are stuck down in the relegation zone with them. Head to head QPR have won most of the games and when at home goals are likely averaging 3.7 goals a game. We are going to be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two. Currently available at 1.91 on Betfair.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 2.04 about 1hr before the match. As we were having to us Betfair Mobile for this one we couldn't watch the match to see if goals we likely. So at half time we traded out at 5.1 with £50 to minimize the loss to £50 if the game finished under 2.5. Sods law with this one, in history between these teams no QPR V Norwich home match has had less than 2 goals. Until today that is! On a positive note well done to the members who backed QPR to win after no early goals (thats the advantage of watching the game).


Profit made on this trade =
- £50


Date: 09/10/07
Time:19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Cambridge Utd v Rushden & D - SCORE: 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Cambridge Utd are unbeaten in their last seven home games and have only lost one of the last ten. This season at home they have scored 14 goals in 4 home games and conceded 7. Rushden Diamonds have had a good run of form away from home recently, with 3 victories and just 1 loss from the last 7. The Diamonds's have scored 12 in the last 7 away matches and conceded 10.

Its pretty obvious goals are common when these teams play but our concern is they have had a few 1-0 matches between them and they look very evenly matched this season. So we are going to lay the draw around 3.5 and trade out when a goal is scored. You could consider covering the 0-0 draw but it has never happened in their history.

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.55 about 15 min's in-play on the lay bet, and 15 min's before kick off on the 0-0 correct score at 14.5. No goals until 81 min's in despite it looking like there were going to be goals. We weren't that bothered as we had £19 on the 0-0 enabling us to wait this one out. We traded out after the goal just to be safe at 8.8 with £33 for £64 profit on the win, minus our £19 stake giving us £45 overall.


Profit made on this trade =
£45


Date: 10/10/07
Time: 21.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Spanish Cup
Teams: Tenerife v Malaga - SCORE: 1 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Club Deportivo Tenerife were UEFA cup semi-finalist in 1996-97 however today they are in the Spanish Segunda Division (2nd) and are running 15th in the league with 2 wins from 7 games and only 6 goals for and 7 against. Malaga on the other hand have been tipped for promotion which is obvious when you look at this seasons record of 7 wins out of 7 with these games yielding a massive 17 goals for and 5 against. As this is a cup match we do have our reservations about backing Malaga so we have decided to lay the draw at around 3.4 and trade out after a goal. Tenerife's last 2 games have finished 0-0 (their problem is scoring not defending) so covering the 0-0 should be considered.

Our Trading Result:
We got our £100 lay bet on at 3.35 and our £13, 0-0 bet on at 14.0 earlier today. You might have noticed the odds fluctuation quite a lot, this was because the team Malaga decided to field was mainly second team players, why you would do that in a Cup match we have no idea!

As soon as the match turned in-play it stayed suspended just like the Blackburn game a few days ago. This was something to do with Spanish TV rights and Betfair not being able to see the match in-play, so they couldn't offer an in-play market. The result was a lot of stressed out members especially once Malaga equalized after half time, but lucky for those of us who got in they scored again giving us a £82 overall.


Profit made on this trade =
£82


Date: 11/10/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Oxford United V Torquay - SCORE: 3 - 3
Our Recommendation:
Oxford United have only lost 1 of their last 10 home games. This season the goals for column just outweighs the goals against 11 to 9. Torquay have had a reasonable run of form away from home recently, winning 4 and losing 4 of the last 10 away matches. The games have constituted a ridiculous return of 40 goals with 22 for the Gulls, and 18 against. Oxford Utd. see themselves just below half way in the league, Torquay are sitting, in 3rd. We are in disagreement over the goals market here as when Oxford have played Torquay at home 75% of games have finished under 2.5 but overall the average scoreline is 3.5. So we feel laying the draw around 3.5 is the safest option and trade out after a goal. . You could consider covering the 0-0 correct score to be safe but it has a very low probability.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.6, we didn't cover the 0-0 tonight due to the very low probability. The first and second goal came in quick succession 15 min's in enabling us to trade out at 7.0 with £53.50 for £44 across all options. We wish they all were this easy! Those of you who waited until half time were rewarded by yet another Oxford goal just before the break with trade out odds of 19. The game eventually finished 3-3 so hopefully everyone got out.


Profit made on this trade =
£44


Date: 12/10/07
Time: 19.55 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premier League (Ireland)
Teams: Shamrock Rovers V Drogheda - SCORE: 0 - 2
Our Recommendation:
This is going to be close. Shamrock are sitting in second place in the Irish Premier league behind leaders Drogheda. Both teams have something in common they don't concede many goals Shamrock are averaging 0.3 goals against when playing at home and Drogheda are averaging 0.6 playing away. This explains why they are sitting at the top of the league. When you look at the recent results for these teams Shamrocks home matches are averaging 1.5 goals a game and Drogheda's away games are averaging 1.7. This all points to us backing under 2.5 goals. Currently available on Betfair at 1.6, hopefully it will drift a little. We would be looking to trade out under 1.4 before a goal if possible.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.66 15 min's before the off. Odds went down to 1.4 just before the first goal, we were looking for under so our bet didn't get accepted. We ended up waiting until about 60 min's in and traded out at 1.36 with £140 for £38 profit if the game finished under which it did.


Profit made on this trade =
£38


Date: 13/10/07
Time: 15.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier
Teams: Scotland V Ukraine - SCORE: 3 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Scotland lead the group by a point over the previous finalists Italy and France(a bit of a shock we know). Ukraine can be expected to give Scotland a tough time here because if they were to win this game it puts them 4 points behind 2nd place Italy with two games to go. The goal threat from Shevchenko and Voronin will be a challenge for the Scots' defense here but we are hoping the packed Hampden Park, will be like having a 12th man on the field, hopefully inspiring them to victory. We have decided to lay the draw around 3.35 and trade out after a goal here, basically because the odds are right and Scotland's campaign so far has had a lack of draws.

Under 2.5 goals looks likely too so if you fancy a side bet its available to back at 1.65 or you could lay over at 2.54 obviously trading out when your in profit.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 3.25 about 30 min's before Kick Off. We also had a £25 side bet on the under 2.5 goals. 4 min's in Scotland scored, we needed the odds to drift to about 5.0 to cover the £25 bet and make a little profit, so we waited a while for the odds to drift. 6 min's later they scored again giving us the odds we needed to trade out. We put £35 on the back bet to get us £62 profit, minus the £25 stake on the under bet giving us £37 overall.


Profit made on this trade =
£37


Date: 13/10/07
Time:17.15 hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Northwich v Exeter - SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Northwich are sitting rock bottom of the Blue Square Premier league having lost 13 of 15 matches this season. They have conceded an average of 2.3 goals a game with their home form only slightly better than away. Exeter find themselves in 7 place with a strong home form and better than average away. They are scoring an average of 1.7 goals on the road. Head to head is evenly split but this seasons form supports Exeter and over 2.5 goals. We will be backing over 2.5 around 1.9 and trading out after a goal or two. If Exeter look good in-play or their are no early goals we will also consider a bet on them trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We got our bet matched at 1.9 about 8 min's in-play. Not really the game we expected or the stats predicted. A couple of good chances in the first half but not enough for us to be confident of the over 2.5 goals so we traded out at 4.6 with £50 as the whistle was blown for half time. We were hoping that Exeter would show some sign of scoring but only a few half hearted chances followed in the second half. So a loss for us which we are hoping to get back on the next match.


Profit made on this trade = -
£50


Date: 13/10/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier
Teams: Rep of Ireland V Germany - SCORE: 0 - 0
Our Recommendation:
With Germany unbeaten so far in their group, it is difficult to imagine that the Republic of Ireland will be the first team to take three points from Germany.  With wins against England and Wales in recent months, Ireland are likely to be another GB team to lose against this excellent German team. We don't think it will be a push over though as Ireland have a strong home form and it is likely to be close. We have our fingers crossed for a low scoring draw and feel under 2.5 is a good price at 1.95 so we will be backing under 2.5. We will be looking to trade out under 1.6 before a goal if possible.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.91 before kick off. A very tight game as expected no goals in the first half or before we traded out. 55 min's in we got 1.1 matched for £155 guaranteeing £53 if the game finished over and £72 if under. Exactly what we needed to recover the previous loss giving us £59 profit for the day.



Profit made on this trade =
£72


Date: 14/10/07
Time: 19.30 hrs GMT
Fixture: Segunda Division (Spain)
Teams: Elche V Malaga - SCORE: 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Firstly we have checked with Betfair and the TV rights issue is sorted so hopefully no repeat of the match a few days ago (if your still worried wait until the match starts).

To remind you of Malaga's form they have been tipped for promotion which is obvious when you look at this seasons record of 7 wins out of 7, with these games yielding a massive 17 goals for and 5 against. They even managed to win their recent cup match with 90% reserves over mid table Tenerife.
Elche are very good defensively which will be frustrating for Malaga so it is likely to be low scoring. The head to head history only contains two previous meetings when Elche won, but this was against a completely different Malaga team.

We have run the stats on this one and they give us a 10% chance of a draw so we layed the draw at 3.15 earlier this morning so you should be looking for similar, trading out after a goal. Back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability if you want to be safe.

Under 2.5 goals looks likely so we will be backing under as well.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on early this moring at 3.15 we also put a £50 under 2.5 goals bet on at 1.77. The first 25 min's didn't yield any goals enabling us to trade out of the goals bet at 1.32 with £66 for £16 profit. The first goal came as a bit of a suprise from Elche 34 min's in so the odds only went up slightly and at half time were around 3.8. We were looking for 4.1 and 2 min's into the second half Elche scored again! The odds moved nicely up and we traded out at 10.0 with £25 for £71 on the win and £10 if the match finished in a draw.



Profit made on this trade =
£87


Date: 15/10/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Coca-Cola League One
Teams: Luton v Northampton - SCORE: 4 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Luton Town have lost just once in their last six home games, winning four and drawing one. They have definitely improved over the end of last season where they lost their last 5 home games. They also seem to be scoring well at home, 9 goals in 5 matches.

In contrast, Northampton haven't had the best time on their travels, only managing 3 draws from the previous six away games. They have managed to score 5 goals, but 11 have hit the back of the wrong net.

Head to head, Northampton just come out in front but their most recent encounter went to Luton comfortably.

We feel the best option here is lay the draw around 3.5 and trade out after a goal, it looks fairly promising that it will go our way, as there isn't a 0-0 finish in their last 20 games. Please cover the 0-0 correct score if you want the safety net.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on just before kick off at 3.35. We barely sat down and Luton scored driving the odds up to 4.6 for us to trade out with £73 for £26 profit across all options. Early night for us and £26 for 4 min's work, nice work if you can get it!



Profit made on this trade =
£26


Date: 16/10/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Halifax v Grays Athletic - SCORE: 0 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Halifax Town are unbeaten in their last 10 home matches, but have drawn 4 of them. They have scored well at home, and have kept 4 clean sheets so are looking good defensively. Grays tend to play very defensively away from home and have managed to keep 6 clean sheets in the last 10. They don't score well on the road only managing 4 from this seasons 7 away games.

We feel Grays defensive record will keep the score down so under 2.5 goals looks likely to us. It is currently available on Betfair at 1.84 and we will be looking to trade out under 1.6.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on just before kick off at 1.93. Very tight game in defense as expected no goals before we traded out. We managed to get 1.3 matched in the first half with £130 for £51 profit if the game finished under and £29 if it finished over.



Profit made on this trade =
£51


Date: 17/10/07
Time: 16.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier
Teams: Russia V England - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Despite England coming into this game on the back of five successive qualification victories by a 3-0 scoreline, England’s task shouldn’t be under estimated. The Russian's haven’t lost at home since France beat them nine years ago. In the other 44 home matches, they’ve won 31 and drawn 13. Russia’s 3-0 loss at Wembley ended an unbeaten run of 17 qualifiers, in which they conceded only five goals highlighting how good Russia are defensively. England come into this match with the best defensive run we can remember with six consecutive clean sheets which, with Russia's defensive record points strongly points to -2.5 goals. The price is very short to back under 2.5 goals (1.6) so we are going to lay over 2.5 goals currently available at 2.6 and trade out above 3.0.

As there is a high probability of a draw, we will also consider backing the draw in-play if it looks likely.

Our Trading Result:
We got our over 2.5 goals lay bet on just before kick off at 2.46. No goals before we traded out at 3.6 about 25 min's in for £30 across both options. England opened the scoring after 30 min's but we have to admit we felt Russia would equalize. At Half time we put £50 on the draw (3.95) and traded out after the penalty Rooney gave away was converted (1.74) for £60 across all options. Not really how we wanted to profit from this match or the result we wanted to see.



Profit made on this trade =
£90


Date: 17/10/07
Time: 18.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier
Teams: Georgia V Scotland - SCORE: 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Scotland’s 3-1 win over Ukraine was their sixth consecutive victory, a sequence that has not been matched for 58 years. However 3 points from this match is not guaranteed. Scotland have half-a-dozen players who would have been selection unavailable, they are not in ideal shape. Georgia will be no pushovers either. Italy, despite controlling the game on Saturday, found it very difficult to break them down and required late goals in either half to earn a 2-0 victory. The Scots will be boosted though in the knowledge that the Georgia are without their two-star players, Kakhaber Kaladze and Levan Kobiashvilli. We initially were going to back Scotland but their current injury and suspension list is worrying so we feel the best option here is to lay the draw around 3.6 and trade out hopefully once Scotland take the lead.

Back the 0-0 draw if you are concerned of no goals.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on just before kick off at 3.55. Scotland looked lost in the first 30 min's and we weren't surprised when Mchedlidze opened the scoring for Georgia after 16 min's. The affect this had on the odds wasn't idea as they stayed below 3.55 until the second half forcing us to wait for another goal.The second goal by Georgia drove the odds well over what we needed enabling us to trade out at 14 with £25 for £71 if the game didn't end in a draw.


Profit made on this trade =
£71


Date: 17/10/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier
Teams: Germany V Czech Republic - SCORE: 0 - 3
Our Recommendation:
Germany already qualified and the Czech's, with their destiny in their own hands, coming into this match in the race for the second qualification place with a five point lead over the Republic of Ireland. A point against the Germans would practically finish off the Irish.

Both teams have a superb defense so this is very unlikely to be a high scoring match. Both sides have conceded just four goals so far in qualifying stage. It’s hard to see the Czechs going to Munich and winning, so we feel it will end in a low scoring draw or a win for Germany. We have decided to back under 2.5 goals at around 1.9 and trade out under 1.6.

We will also look to back Germany in-play if they look dominant.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.87 as the match turned in-play then the game went suspended. We actually though Betfair had removed the match from the market but after turning the TV on it was a goal 2 min's in. Not the best start we waited about 20 min's for the odds to come down then the Czech's scored again putting trading out off the cards until the odds came back to something reasonable. We played the waiting game until 56 min's in trading out at 3.9 with £65 for a £35 loss if the game finished over which it definately looked like it would. From the emails we recieved it looks like most people didn't get involved as they were looking to put their bets on in-play and were put off by the early goal.


Profit made on this trade =
- £35


Date: 18/10/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Stevenage V Burton - SCORE: 3 - 3
Our Recommendation:
These two teams are very evenly matched. Stevenage are sitting in 3rd place winning 5 of this season's 8 home games with a very positive scoring record of 17 goals with 5 against.Burton are 2 points behind with a game in hand, no away losses but 5 draws and two wins from their 7 games, with 9 goals for a 5 against. Head to head these teams have never had a goalless match and only one draw in the last 10 match ups. Somebody always wins with Stevenage coming away with 3 points in their last meeting back in February. We can't agree a winner here and the goal market is split 55/45 so we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal. Please back the 0-0 draw if you want to be safe.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on 3.35 as the match turned in-play. We had to wait until 28 min's in for Burton to open the scoreline. The odds didn't really move as Stevenage were favorites. They equalized two min's later driving the odds down to 2.6. This meant we had to play the waiting game for another goal which came just after half time for us to trade out at 4.6 with £73 for £26 across all options. The game really hotted up in the later stages with 3 more goals in the space of 4 min's. Pretty amazing to watch, they both really wanted to win this one, proving us wrong that sometimes they do draw!


Profit made on this trade =
£26


Date: 20/10/07
Time: 12.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Everton V Liverpool - SCORE: 1 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Victory for Everton over Liverpool in this derby match would lift them to equal on points in the league. Both teams are struggling for form recently the difference being Liverpool still haven't lost a premiership game this season and Everton have lost 4 of their 8 games. Of the 99 games played, between these two Everton have recorded 38 wins, and Liverpool have come away with 33.

The most recent encounter between these two sides at Goodison Park was just last season, in September 2006, with Everton running out comfortable 3-0 winners.

As this is a Derby match there is more on the cards than a usual league match so their could be an upset. So we are going to lay the draw around 3.35 and trade out after a goal. If Everton score first you will have to wait for the odds to drift or trade out.

Please consider backing the 0-0 correct score on this one as their is a higher than average probability..

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 before kick off and backed the 0-0 correct score at 9.6 with £15. The first goal came by way of an own goal from Hyypiä putting Everton ahead. The odds went up to 3.65, we were looking for 4.1 as a minimum so gave it some more time for the odds to drift. 53 min's in Hibbert was given a red card for Everton reducing them to 10 men and Liverpool converted the penalty. This drove the odds down to around 2.5 meaning we needed another goal to make a profit so with Everton reduced to 10 men and Liverpool looking very sharp we decided to wait for another from Liverpool. 4 or 5 good chances followed but no goals, and we were ready to report a big loss then another converted penalty for Liverpool put them in front. As there was only about a minute left we didn't trade out giving us a lucky win here!


Profit made on this trade =
£80


Date: 20/10/07
Time: 15.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Wigan V Portsmouth - SCORE: 0 - 2
Our Recommendation:
After a promising start, Wigan haven't won in their last six games. Having topped the table very briefly, they now find themselves sitting in 14th place. At home they have managed to pick up just two wins from their last six, losing three in the process. Pompey, after a few losses at the start of the season, have now found themselves a decent run of form away from home winning their last 3 matches. We feel Portsmouth will come out on top here so will be backing them at around 2.5 and trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Portsmouth at 2.58. No early goals and not the most inspiring game we have seen, but a winner for Pompey as expected. We traded out after the first goal at 1.18 with £110 for £130 profit if Pompey won and £19 on the draw or Wigan win.


Profit made on this trade =
£130



Date: 20/10/07
Time: 17.15 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Aston Villa v Manchester United - SCORE: 1 - 3
Our Recommendation:
Whilst we would love to see Villa win here, unfortunately Man Utd are Villa's bogey team. The last time Villa won at home against Utd was back in 1995. We remember the party. Since then it has been bad news for Villa with 3 draws and 8 wins going to Man Utd. The other thing you can bank on is a low scoring game, if you ignore the last 0-3 defeat the previous 10 have finished under 2.5 goals. This gives us enough confidence to back under 2.5 goals around 1.8 and trading out under 1.6.

We will also consider laying the draw in-play around 3.4 and trading out after a goal.

Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 goals at 1.76. The odds came down quickly to the desired level but we waited a little too long and Agbonlahor scored for Villa so we decided to let the goals bet run and get in on the draw market as highlighted. We layed the draw at 3.4 with £50 and traded out at 21.0 with £7 after Man Utd went up. Unfortunately we lost £100 on the goals market but the loss was minimised to only £59 by the supporting bet.


Profit made on this trade =
- £59


Date: 21/10/07
Time: 13.15 hrs GMT
Fixture: Championship
Teams: Southampton V Cardiff - SCORE: 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Southampton have been scoring very well recently averaging 2 goals a game from the last 10 which would put most teams near the top of the table, the problem is they have the worse defensive record in the league having let in 23 in 10 games. Cardiff City are also scoring an average of 2 goals but have a better defensive record conceding 14 in the last 10. They are also unbeaten in their last six games. We are interested in the goals market here, as at home Southampton average scoreline is 3.8 goals a game with 9 of the last 10 finishing over 2.5 goals. Cardiff's recent away games also have an average scoreline above 3. If your not convinced, head to head all previous matches between these two averages over 3 goals a game and when Southampton have played at home the average score line has been 4.5 goals a game.

This quite obviously leads us into backing over 2.5 goals around 1.8 and trading out after a goal or two.

Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals earlier today at 1.75. John scored for Southampton 15 min's in giving us good lay odds of 1.43. So we traded out with £110 weighting the profit towards over 2.5 goals. Unfortunately this was the only goal so not the best profit but still in the green.


Profit made on this trade =
£10


Date: 21/10/07
Time: 16.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: West Ham V Sunderland - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
West Ham have lost their last three matches in the Premier League and have an ever-growing injury list to add to their problems. Of their 4 home games this season they have only taken 3 points in one game and have scored 4 and conceded the same. Sunderland narrowly lost to league-leaders Arsenal in their last run out and looked promising, but they are yet to win away this season scoring 6 and conceding 11 goals in the 5 fixtures. Both teams need a win here and there are likely to be goals for us to trade out. There isn't a 0-0 draw in sight and the stats give us only a 15% change of a draw.

So we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal when the odds are in our favour
Back the 0-0 correct score if you want to be safe.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw earlier today at 3.6. Cole opened the scoring for West Ham 9 min's in giving us our second early finish, with great 'first goal' trade out odds of 5.5. We traded out with £64 for £34 across all options.


Profit made on this trade =
£34


Date: 23/10/07
Time: 19.45 HRS GMT
Fixture: UEFA Champions League
Teams: PSV V Fenerbahce - SCORE: 0 - 0

Our Recommendation:
PSV Eindhoven have a perfect UEFA competition record against Turkish teams. In comparison Fenerbahce don't travel well to the Netherlands losing the last five matches there. PSV tend to play well at home in the Champions league taking 3 points in 6 of the last 10 matches. Fenerbahce have only won 1 of their last 10 on the road in the Champions League and have been been pretty poor domestically this season. There is a very low probability of a draw here so laying the draw is the best option. We will be looking for around 3.6 and trading out after a goal. If Fenerbahce score first you will have to wait for the odds to drift to trade out.

Back the 0-0 correct score if you are concerned.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.6 in-play and backed the 0-0 correct score with just £5 at odds of 15. This game had loads of action, 6 yellow cards a sending off in the second half, but no goals. They were far to busy beating eachother up. Definitely not the result we were expecting with a less than 10% change of a draw. Anyway we traded out after we answered a few emails at 1.73 with £208 giving us a loss of £108 across all options. As it finished 0-0 we won £67 on the correct score bet minimizing our loss to £41


Profit made on this trade = -
£41


Date: 24/10/07
Time: 19.45 HRS GMT
Fixture: UEFA Champions League
Teams: W Bremen v Lazio - SCORE: 2 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Bremen will be desperate to take 3 points here. They come into this match on the back of two losses in the Champions league a further loss could see their campaign over. Lazio will also be fighting to remain in touch with the group yet to win but sporting two goal scoring draws. Both sides will fancy their chances and we are confident there will be goals. When looking at previous home and away form. Bremen have a stong winning trend at home beating some good teams including Chelsea recently. Lazio away are not very inspiring winning only once and frequently losing 1 -0.

We will be backing Bremen around 1.9 on Betfair and trading out once they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Bremen at 1.76 as the odds were following a downward trend this afternoon and we didn't want to miss the boat. Better odds were available in-play before the goal. We traded out after Bremen took the lead 28 min's in with £137 at 1.28 for £34 across both options.


Profit made on this trade =
£35


Date: 24/10/07
Time: 19.45 HRS GMT
Fixture: UEFA Champions League
Teams: Benfica V Celtic - SCORE: 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Celtic’s away record in the Champions league is really poor. They have never won away, losing 8 and drawing 2. This is enough for us to expect them to lose this match or at best snatch a draw. The only concern we have about backing Benfica outright is Celtic did beat Benfica at home 3 -0 last season and it was a very convincing performance. We have decided to lay the draw here at around 3.6 and trade out after a goal when the odds are in our favour as its the safest option.

Back the 0-0 correct score if you are concerned.

We are very interested in the over 2.5 goals market as a secondary bet and may be getting in on this inplay.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw here at 3.55, and backed the 0-0 correct score with £20. The first half was pretty open but not too many chances. We didn't get in on the over 2.5 goals market until after half time when the game hotted up, where we got 11.0 matched for £25. Most of the second half was played at a very high intensity with some excellent chances before Benfica scored. We let this one run until the goal, as we had the bet covered by our 0-0 correct score bet and the earlier profit. We traded out at 20.0 with £18 to give us £78 profit across all option, and an overall profit after deductions of £23.


Profit made on this trade =
£23


Date: 25/10/07
Time: 20.00 HRS GMT
Fixture: UEFA Cup
Teams: Bolton V Braga - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Bolton, still without a permanent manager following the sacking of Sammy Lee, welcome Braga to the Reebok stadium for a UEFA Cup Clash. This doesn't look like an easy win here, as domestically Bolton are sitting at the bottom of the Premiership with only 1 win from 10 matches. Braga on the other hand are sitting above mid-table in the Portuguese Premier league with some difficult win's behind them. Even with Anelka coming back to fitness, they will need to be at their best to see off a side that thrashed Hammarby 4-1 to get here.

We will be laying Bolton around 1.8 and trading out when the back odds are over 2.4

Our Trading Result:
We layed Bolton at 1.78. The first half had a couple of chances but to be honest the crowd were more entertaining. We were expecting the odds to be at 2.4 by half time but we had to wait about 5 min's into the second half for them to pass 2.4. We traded out at 2.52 with £70 for £28 across all options. Bolton scored about 10 min's later and Braga equalized with 3 min's to go, giving the brave members £100 profit.


Profit made on this trade =
£28


Date: 26/10/06
Time: 19.30 hrs
Fixture: Eredivisie (Netherlands)
Teams: Vitesse v Willem II - SCORE: 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Vitesse come into this match with a record of 4 win's 1 draw and 3 losses. This does look very average but they were beaten by 3 teams that are likely to finish top. Their record against teams not in the top 4 is actually pretty good. Willem this season are not looking good with 1 win to date and a big problem scoring. Their away form is particularly poor, with no wins in the last 10. Head to head supports a home win with Vitesse winning 10 of the last 14 matches with Willem picking us 2 wins but not since 2001.

We will be backing Vitesse and trading out after they take the lead. Ideally we will be looking for over 1.8 so will have to get this in-play as the odds are a little short at the moment.

You could also consider backing under 2.5 goals as this is likely but please check the money in the market as its a little short at the moment.


Our Trading Result:
We backed Vitesse in-play at 1.95 a few min's in. The under 2.5 goals bet we felt was good value and got on this at 2.04 before kick off with £50. Not much action as expected through the first half. As there was no early goal we let the under 2.5 bet run as a safety net until we traded out . As expected Vitesse took the lead after 76 min's enabling us to trade out on both bets. We got out at 1.1 with £55 on the goals bet and traded out at 1.18 with £150 on the Vitesse win bet for an overall profit of £109.


Profit made on this trade =
£109


Date: 27/10/06
Time: 15.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Birmingham v Wigan - SCORE: 3 - 2

Our Recommendation:
This season both of these teams have won 2 drawn 2, lost 6, and scored 8 goals from these games, the only difference is Wigan have let in one more goal. Neither team have posted a point since mid-September having both lost their last four matches. If it wasn't that Wigan are yet to have a scoreless away game we would expect this game to finish 0-0. We feel this match is going to finish under 2.5 goals as head to head and recent form supports it but as the odds are very short (1.65) we feel laying the draw is the best option here.

It is currently available at 3.5 and we will be trading out after a goal when the odds are in our favour (as most of you know we look for 4.1 as a minimum).

We will also consider backing under 2.5 goals in-play depending on what we see, but the value probably won't be there until after a goal.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.5 a few min's in. The under 2.5 goals was still short so we left it alone. This game was great to watch loads of action. The first goal came from Wigan 23 min's but the odds were short as Birmingham were favorites. They equalized just after the market went back in-play confirming we should leave the goals market alone. Wigan scored again after 59 min's and we took advantage of this and traded half our stake out at 3.75 then Birmingham responded about few min's later leaving us waiting for our usual 4.1 for the rest of the stake. The final goal came 81 min's from Birmingham putting them ahead and driving the odds up to 11.0 for us to trade out with the rest of our stake for an overall profit of £50.


Profit made on this trade =
£50


Date: 27/10/06
Time: 17.15 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Portsmouth V West Ham - SCORE: 0 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Everything is going extremely well for Harry Redknapp as he prepares to face his old club once again. Pompey go into this game against West Ham on a five game winning streak, the first time this has happened since joining the Premiership. The scoring form of Benjani Mwaruwari, who tops the Premier League scoring charts with seven has a lot to do with it. West Ham are yet to beat Pompey home or away in recent years with the most recent match finishing 2-0.

We will be backing Portsmouth around 1.9 and trading out after they take the lead.

The goals market leans towards under 2.5 goals but with only a 60% chance we will leave it up to you.


Our Trading Result:
We backed Portsmouth a few min's in at 1.83 as they were a little short before kick off. We also put a £25 bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.94. Some great chances for both sides neither team could break the deadlock. We let the goals bet run as a safety net despite a last second penalty, Pompey failed to score. To be honest West Ham played a great game and deserved the draw. As we let this one run we lost £100 on the back bet and made £23 on the goals bet.



Profit made on this trade =
- £77


Date: 28/10