November 2007
trading advice given
Profit for Month = £880
Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
01/11/07 |
Rushden Diamonds V Oxford Utd |
5 - 0 |
- £100 |
02/11/07 |
Energie Cottbus V Schalke 04 |
1 - 0 |
£30 |
03/11/07 |
Everton V Birmingham |
3 - 1 |
£43 |
03/11/07 |
Middlesborough V Tottenham |
1 - 1 |
£21 |
03/11/07 |
Blackburn V Liverpool |
0 - 0 |
£25 |
04/11/07 |
Empoli V Roma |
2 - 2 |
£38 |
04/11/07 |
West Ham V Bolton |
1 -1 |
£32 |
05/11/07 |
Manchester City V Sunderland |
1 - 0 |
£52 |
06/11/07 |
Celtic V Benfica |
1 - 0 |
£24 |
07/11/07 |
Steaua Bucuresti V Sevilla |
0 - 2 |
£75 |
08/11/07 |
Hapoel Tel Aviv V Tottenham |
0 - 2 |
£26 |
10/11/07 |
Sunderland V Newcastle |
1 - 1 |
£20 |
10/11/07 |
Liverpool V Fulham |
0 - 0 |
- £50 |
11/10/07 |
Birmingham V Aston Villa |
1 - 2 |
£30 |
11/11/07 |
Parma v Juventus |
2 - 2 |
£28 |
11/11/07 |
Tottenham V Wigan |
4 - 0 |
£47 |
11/11/07 |
Portsmouth V Man City |
0 - 0 |
-£75 |
12/1/07 |
Reading V Arsenal |
1 - 3 |
£66 |
13/11/07 |
Koblenz v Paderborn |
0 - 0 |
-£60 |
14/11/07 |
Las Palmas v Villarreal |
2 - 3 |
£56 |
16/11/07 |
Austria V England |
0 - 1 |
£57 |
17/11/07 |
Wales v Rep of Ireland |
1 - 2 |
£33 |
17/11/07 |
Bulgaria V Romania |
1 - 0 |
-£100 |
17/11/07 |
Scotland V Italy |
0 - 1 |
£67 |
18/11/07 |
Yeovil V Gilingham |
2 - 1 |
£64 |
18/11/07 |
Peru V Brazil |
1 -1 |
£24 |
20/11/07 |
Portugal U21 v England U21 |
1 - 1 |
£23 |
21/11/07 |
England V Croatia |
2 - 3 |
£68 |
22/11/07 |
Aldershot V Grays Athletic |
3 -2 |
£36 |
22/11/07 |
Staines Town v Stockport |
1 - 1 |
- £88 |
23/11/07 |
Osnabruck v Carl Zeiss Jena |
1 - 1 |
£58 |
24/11/07 |
Cottbus v W Bremen |
0 - 2 |
£32 |
24/11/07 |
Middlesbrough v Aston Villa |
0 - 3 |
£171 |
25/11/07 |
West Ham V Tottenham |
1 - 1 |
£43 |
25/11/07 |
Fulham v Blackburn Rovers |
2 - 2 |
£13 |
26/11/07 |
Leicester V Cardiff |
0 - 0 |
£44 |
27/11/07 |
Manchester United V Sporting Lisbon |
2 - 1 |
£16 |
28/11/07 |
Celtic V Shakhtar |
2 - 1 |
£91 |
29/11/07 |
Bolton V Aris Salonika |
1 - 1 |
-£100 |
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Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 01/11/07 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Rushden Diamonds V Oxford Utd - SCORE: 5 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
At home this season, Rushden have been solid at the back with the best defensive record in the league, conceding only 7 goals in their last 8 games. This would be great if they had scored some goals to support this but they also have the worst record for scoring record at home, managing just 5 from the 8 games. So you won't be surprised when we say that 9 out of the last 10 games have finished under 2.5 goals.
Oxford Utd's away form supports under 2.5 goals especially when playing low scoring teams averaging a goal a game at both ends.
Head to Head also points towards this result with the last 2 matches finishing 1 - 0 to Rushden.
We will be backing under 2.5 goals at around 1.9 and trading out when the odds are below 1.5
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our bet on this morning at 1.9. Every so often a game goes so against your trading advice you feel quite stupid, this game was one of those. 3 goals in 15 min's with no chance to trade out.
We did put a small bet on Rushden to win after the first goal but as we didn't highlight it in advance we won't report it. |
Profit made on this trade = - £100
|
| Date: 02/11/07 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 1 |
| Teams: Energie Cottbus - Schalke 04 - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Cottbus are sitting rock bottom of the league with no win's from 11 matches and have conceded 21 goals and only managing to hit 7 in reply.
Schalke find themselves in 5th place with 4 wins from their 11 games and only 1 loss which was against a team sitting above them in the league. They have been scoring well managing 17 goals from 11 matches and are yet to lose away.
Head to head has some interesting scorelines but the most recent 5 games went to Schalke.
We are going to lay the draw here around 3.6 and trade out after a goal. Hopefully from Schalke as it will give us better odds. You might need to get it in-play as the odds are slightly high at the moment.
Back the 0-0 for your trade out liability if you are concerned its available at 15.0
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our bet on in-play as highlighted at 3.5. We were quite impressed by Cottbus in the first half, Schalke showed some flair but not to their usual standard. The first and only goal came from Cottbus straight after half time whilst Schalkes heads were still in the dressing room. We had to wait for the odds to drift well into the second half but managed to trade out at 5.1 for £30 across all options. The best performance by far this season from Cottbus. The members who waited would have recouped yesterdays loss, well done to you for your nerves of steel. |
Profit made on this trade = £30
|
| Date: 03/11/07 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Everton V Birmingham - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Everton are beginning to find some form again, going into this game with three consecutive wins, in the Carling Cup, Premiership and Uefa Cup. Their home form isn't great but it has been predictable with the recent loses coming from Liverpool and Man Utd. Recently they have done well against promoted teams winning six of the last eight and most by a margin of two goals or more.
The only thing that stops us recommending over 2.5 here is Birmingham's great ability to lose by just a goal. This is very evident when looking at the head to head with the majority of games finishing 1-1 or
1-0.
We feel the best option here is to lay the draw around 3.5 (you might need to get it in-play) and trade out after a goal. Ideally from Everton as this will drive the odds to where we need to trade out. Look for 4.1 as a minimum unless the trade goes against us.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.5 about 1hr before kick off. As expected Everton scored first giving us good trade out odds of 5.8. We traded out weighting the money on the win with £55 for £43 profit. |
Profit made on this trade = £43
|
| Date: 03/11/07 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Middlesborough V Tottenham - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Both teams find themselves in the bottom four meeting in desperate need of three points. Middlesborough have lost their last five games, and have not won since the start of September. Apart from Tottenham's recent cup win over Championship strugglers Blackpool they also have had been in a terrible run of form. One thing stands out here and that's bothr teams inability to keep a clean sheet.
At home 88% of Boro’s recent home games have had a first half goal and if a goal does come in the first half their is over a 70% of the game finishing +2.5 goals.
Head to head strongly supports this result with the last 3 games between these two delivering 14 goals!
We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two. It might be worth giving it a little time in-play for slightly betters odds. Currently available at 1.85
|
Our Trading Result:
We got on the over 2.5 goals bet a few min's after Yakubu scored in the Everton game at 2.3. We had to wait 20 min's for a goal which came by way of Darren Bent for Tottenham after 35 mins. Giving us trade out odds od 1.88 for a small profit. We weren't that confident of the final result so split the profit across all options for £21 whatever happened. |
Profit made on this trade = £21
|
| Date: 03/11/07 |
| Time: 17.15hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Blackburn V Liverpool - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Blackburn have now won four consecutive matches, held Arsenal and Chelsea to draws and have lost only once all season. If this continues they could be challenging for a top 3 place. Liverpool started this season strongly but have seemed to lose their way with four draws in their last six matches, and poor Champions League form, it has left us quite cautious when considering backing them to win. Blackburn beat Liverpool 1-0 in this fixture last season but head to head Liverpool come out on top.
This leaves us with the goals market to consider. The very obvious trend here is under 2.5 goals. The last 6 times these teams have met there has been under 2 goals with 5 matches having 1 goal or less. You can take this back to 10 years and the average is still under 2.5 goals a game.
When this is complimented by both teams defensive records this season, we should see a low scoring match.
We backed under 2.5 goals earlier to day at 1.8 and would encourage you to do the same, and hopefully trade out under 1.5 before a goal.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.8 as highlighted above. The game followed the trend with no suprises before we traded out at
1.43 with £126 for £25 across both options. If this had been the first trade we would have waited a little longer, but as it was the last of the day we wanted to secure a winner with minimal risk. |
Profit made on this trade = £25
|
| Date: 04/11/07 |
| Time: 14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Empoli v Roma - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Empoli have managed only eight points from their opening ten fixtures this season, if this continues they will find this season very tough. Their problems are being cause by an obscene amount of injured players, and nobody of real quality to replace them. From what we have seen of Roma this season they have been excellent away from home, winning four out of five, and a managing a draw against top form team Fiorentina. From the 5 away games they have only conceded 2 goals.
We don't feel Empoli will be able to handle the most aggressive attacking team in the league with half their players out injured so we will be backing Roma to win around 1.75 and trading out once they take the lead.
|
Our Trading Result:
We backed Roma to win at 1.75. First goal came 13 min's in from Roma giving us trade out odds of 1.25. We put £140 on the lay to give us a nice profit of £38 across all options. Roma continued to dominated until half time giving us another goal for those who waited a little longer. Empoli fought hard in the second half grabing one back after 60 min's and a last second equaliser to end in a draw.
|
Profit made on this trade = £38
|
| Date: 04/11/07 |
| Time:16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: West Ham V Bolton - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
On the surface and looking at recent form you have to go with West Ham here. Our concern with recommending them for the win is their ridiculous injury list: Ashton, Dyer, Parker, Bellamy, Ljungberg, Zamora, Faubert, Davenport, Quashie, Ferdinand, and Collins are all out. This leaves the Hammers with a team we are not confident will do the business.
If you read the press or watch TV you will know what has been going on at Bolton this season. This match MUST have a positive result for Megson and Bolton.
We feel laying the draw around 3.3 is the best option here and trading out when the odds are in our favour, ideally after West Ham take the lead as this will give us the odds we need for a good profit.
Goals are very common between these two but if you want to cover the 0-0 correct score its available at 11.0
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 3.3 before kick off. We didn't have to wait long for McCartney to open the scoreline for West Ham giving us good trade out odds of 5.0. We traded out with £66 for £32 across all options.
Bolton got a last minute equaliser which should give Megson a little breathing space. |
Profit made on this trade = £32
|
| Date: 05/11/07 |
| Time:20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Manchester City v Sunderland - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Despite Man City suffering a rather embarrassing defeat at the hands of Chelsea last week they come into this with a flawless home record this season, 6 win's in a row.
Sunderland have not had the best time away this season, conceding 14 goals, yet to win, and two draws from 6 matches.
Head to head is usually high scoring (3+ goals average) with the most recent 3 matches going to City. What stops us recommending the goals market is despite head to head being high scoring, 4 of the 6 Man City home wins this season have been 1-0.
We feel backing Manchester City to win around 1.7 is the best option. If this isn't available try to get it in-play. We would be looking to trade out once they take the lead.
|
Our Trading Result:
The odds were drifting out in the run up to this match, and when it turned in-play they drifted very quickly in the first few min's to 1.95 where we got in. The first 20 min's were all Sunderland infact most of the match was Sunderland. Man City were very luck here to grab a goal after 67 min's. This gave us our trade out odds of 1.26 with £154 for £52 profit. |
Profit made on this trade = £52
|
| Date: 06/11/07 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: UEFA Champions League |
| Teams: Celtic V Benfica - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Benfica were victorious over Celtic in the reverse fixture two weeks ago. Despite this Celtic at home in the Champions League have won 77% of their matches, losing just once to the mighty Barcelona. Lots of top class teams have left Celtic Park with their tails between their legs, and with Benfica yet to win an away group match, and the fact they were beaten 3-0 by Celtic the last time they visited Glasgow this is going to be a tough fixture for Benfica. We feel laying the draw here around 3.3 is the best option and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour. Ideally from Celtic as this will give us better odds.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on 8 min's in at 3.3. Benfica looking the better side went behind just before half time thanks to McGeady for Celtic, driving the odds up to 4.5 enabling us to trade out at 4.4 with £75 for £24 profit across all options. |
Profit made on this trade = £24
|
| Date: 07/11/07 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: UEFA Champions League |
| Teams: Steaua Bucuresti V Sevilla - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Steaua absolutely need to win this if they want any chance of progression to the next round. Unfortunately the odds are stacked against them as they have only taken 3 points from one of their last ten Champions League matches.
Sevilla have only ever played 3 Champions league matches, winning two and losing one to Arsenal. One of the wins was against Steaua in the reverse fixture back in October which wasn't too convincing.
We are positive Jimenez will have Steaua's number this time and Sevilla will come out on top. We won't be suprised if the match ends over 2.5 goals as this is very common for Sevilla due to their style of play. This should make for an exciting match.
So our recommendation is to back Sevilla around 1.8 and trade out after they take the lead.
The over 2.5 goals market is of interest so we will consider this in-play for a side bet.
|
Our Trading Result:
We back Sevilla a few min's in-play at 1.91. We got in on the goals market at 2.32 with £50 about 15 min's in, more as a cover for the back bet as Steaua started very well. As initially forecast Sevilla took the lead 24 min's in for us to trade out on both bets. We traded out at 1.24 on the Sevilla bet and 1.55 on the goals bet for an overall profit of £75 |
Profit made on this trade = £75
|
| Date: 08/11/07 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: UEFA Cup |
| Teams: Hapoel Tel Aviv v Tottenham - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv are currently lying bottom of their league with just three points from 12 games. They are yet to win a league game this season, and have a goal difference of minus 7. They qualified for the UEFA Cup by winning a domestic cup competition. Last season, they were sent out of the competiton by a 4-0 defeat at Ibrox but did manage to win at home so Spurs should be cautious here.
Spurs are not in the best position domestically this season but are undefeated under new boss Juande Ramos. We are hoping some of his good fortune will rub off on Tottenham as he won the Uefa Cup in both of the last two season with old club Sevilla.
There is enough to support Tottenham here to win but not at 1.6 which it is currently on Betfair.
We will be looking to back Tottenham in-play over 1.8 if possible and trade out once they take the lead.
|
Our Trading Result:
We had to get in on this at lower odds than we wanted as they barely moved in the first 20 min's due to Tottenham's performance, we managed to get 1.62 matched about 20 min's in. This was quite annoying when 1.75 was available last night for those who took the early price. We only had to wait a few min's for Keane to open the scoring for Spurs, it was then followed up shortly after by Berbatov to take them 2 goals up and take the win. We traded out at 1.27 after the first goal as we want to secure the 10th consecutive winner this month with minimal risk.
|
Profit made on this trade = £26
|
| Date: 10/11/07 |
| Time: 12.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Sunderland V Newcastle - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
On Betfair these teams are evenly priced. We don't personally fancy picking a winner either. What we are confident of is a goal. Sunderland have one of the worst records for keeping a clean sheet, only managing it once this season. Newcastle are just as bad having managed it in only 10% of away games over the last two seasons. With Sunderland scoring an average of a goal a game at home and Newcastle averaging 1.8 on the road. This match is perfect to lay the draw and trade out after a goal and back the goals market in-play as a side bet.
So we will be laying the draw around 3.3 and trading out after a goal as a primary bet and will be looking to back over 2.5 goals in-play after the odds have drifted a little as a side bet.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.25 this morning on the lay bet and got in with £25 at 2.5 on the over 2.5 goals bet in-play. We didn't see the match as we were using betfair mobile and listening to it on the radio.
The game seem to be played as expected, no early goals but with them being so evenly matched it played slightly in our favour with reasonable trade out odds. We traded out of the lay bet just after Higginbotham scored for Sunderland at 4.1 (4.3 was available for a short time but we missed it) for £20 profit across all options. As we were only risking £5 on the goal bet due to the draw bet being a winner, we let it run until the next goal was scored and traded out at 1.87 with the profit on over 2.5. Unfortunately it finished under so no profit, but more importantly no loss.
|
Profit made on this trade = £20
|
| Date: 10/11/07 |
| Time: 17.15 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool V Fulham - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Liverpool come into this match on the back of an amazing 8-0 thrashing of Besiktas. Domestically they are yet to lose this season but admittedly they have drawn 6 of the last 10.
Fulham are yet to win away, but come into this match having won their last home game against Reading so they should be fairly motivated despite having never beaten Liverpool at home.
We feel the most prominent trend is the goals market, this is supported by Fulham's ability to hit the back of the net against big 4 teams (71% over the last 3 seasons) and Liverpool's results against bottom half poor away teams +2.5 goals, and if your not convinced the last 3 results between these two with Liverpool at home have finished 3-1,4-1, and 5-0.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two. It is currently available at 1.8 on Betfair. It might be worth giving it a little time in-play for slightly better odds.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got in at 2.3 in-play. Fulham seemed to be able to keep Liverpool closed in althrough the first half. We were expecting much more especially with the same team that won 8-0 earlier in the week. We decided to trade out just after half time at 5.0 with £50 for a loss of £50 if the game finished under 2.5 goals. Unfortunately there were much better odds available after the goals. On a personal note once Liverpool picked up the pace late in the second half we layed the draw as did lots of our members at 1.74 just before they scored but obviously can't report the profit as we didn't mention it in advance.
|
Profit made on this trade = - £50
|
| Date: 11/11/07 |
| Time: 13.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Birmingham V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This match will be Martin O’Neill’s 50th Premier League match in charge of Villa. We can't think of a better place to play this game. As it is a local derby, the game is likely to be fast, and hard fought, with the yellow card count far exceeding the score line.
Birmingham's record at home this season has been better than expected, managing 2W-1D-2L and they come into this winning their last home match so will be full of confidence.
Villa this season are yet to win away but they have managed to draw 3 of the 4 matches and personally it is very likely that the home grown talent of Knight, Agbonlahor, Gardner and Moore with motivate Villa to take all 3 points here.
Head to head with Birmingham at home goes to them, but Villa did win the last match up.
We feel laying the draw is the best option and trade out after a goal (hopefully from Villa). It is currently available at 3.15 on Betfair which is a good price
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.15. We didn't have to wait to long for Ridgewell to score an OG to put Villa ahead and enable us to trade out at 4.6 with £68 for £30 profit. A nice easy winner for us.
|
Profit made on this trade = £30
|
| Date: 11/11/07 |
| Time: 14.10hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Parma v Juventus - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Parma this season have a serious problem in defense, conceding 19 from 11 games. If this continues they will find themselves in the relegation zone very soon. We find it very unlikely the will restrict the league's top scorer Trezeguet in this clash. Their only saving grace is they can score when they need to averaging 1.6 goals a game.
Juventus this season have had a few dodgy games but as they have held the top 3 teams in the league to a draw this season, they get our vote, and when you consider that they have only lost 5% of games against mid-table teams over the last 8 years this should be an away win for Juventus.
We have decided to lay the draw here as it is slightly safer than backing Juventus outright, and as they are likely to take the lead at some point the trade out odds will be pretty good.
Lay the draw around 3.45 and trade out after a goal when the odds are in our favour. Back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability of your concerned. We have it about 4% probability
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on 5 min's in at 3.45. Another 5 min's in we were glad we didn't back Juventus as Parma looked much better than expected and managed to take the lead by a penalty just before HT. As we had our sensible head on for this we traded out half our stake (as we advised those who contacted us) and then looked to get the rest matched once the odds drifted a little to make a bit of profit. Parma scored again to take themselves 2 up after 57 min's and gave us the odds we were looking for to trade the rest of the stake out. We traded out with average odds of 4.9 with £70 for £28 across all options
|
Profit made on this trade = £28
|
| Date: 11/11/07 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams:Tottenham V Wigan - SCORE: 4 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Tottenham will be confident of adding another loss to Wigan's record here. They are yet to be beaten since appointing Juande Ramos as manager, with a Premier League draw sandwiched between cup wins. Its quite obvious they have problems at the back, but their attacking quartet of Keane, Malbranque, Berbatov, and Lennon are beginning to find the form at last.
Wigan come into this match without a Manager, 6 consecutive losses and have have never beaten Spurs in their history. Not very inspiring!
We will be looking to back Spurs in-play over 1.6 if possible and trade out after they take the lead.
We will also be looking to get in on the over 2.5 goals market in-play as a secondary bet. Its a little short at the moment.
|
Our Trading Result:
This is another example of a team starting so well the odds don't move or go southward. We were forced to take 1.49 and for obvious reasons. Tottenham were excellent! We also got in on the goals market at 1.82. Jenas put Tottenham ahead after 13 min's enabling us to trade straight out on both bets. We would have waited on the goals market but wanted to focus on the Parma game. Those who did would have been laughing as Tottenham were 3-0 up at half time.
We got out on the win bet at 1.14 with £120 for £31 if Tottenham won, and got out on the £50 goals bet at 1.36 with £67 for another £16 profit. The profit here could have been tripled if you played this one less conservatively.
|
Profit made on this trade = £47
|
| Date: 11/11/07 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Portsmouth v Man City - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Pompey are now unbeaten at home for nine consecutive games which is actually one short of their Premier League record! If you look at who has failed to break them down this season, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man Utd this is even more impressive.
Man City find themselves in 3rd place in the Premiership with the best home record in the league. Their away record isn't so impressive only managing 1 win from 5 games.
Head to head goes to Pompey with the most resent fixture also going their way, and the good news is we are likely to be out of this game in the first half as they tend to secure the win early on when at home.
We will be backing Portsmouth around 2.0 and trading out after they take the lead.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our bet matched at 2.02 in-play. Portsmouth were unlucky not to get a penalty after the shirt pulling incident in the first half. Unfortunately no goals despite Pompey hitting the post late in the second half. We waited as long as we could and traded out at 7.4 just before the game went into injury time for a loss of £75 if the game finished in a draw.
|
Profit made on this trade = - £75
|
| Date: 12/11/07 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Reading V Arsenal - SCORE: 1 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Thanks to Man U's 2-0 win over Blackburn on Sunday, Arsene Wenger is very likely to field a full strength side, unlike the one he fielded against Slavia recently. We believe there are 9 rested players who can now return for this fixture and with Arsenal unbeaten in 26 games we can't see things changing here, despite Reading winning their last 3 home games.
Head to head is as expected all Arsenal and supports over 2.5 goals.
So we will be Backing Arsenal around 1.5 or higher (currently 1.53 on Betfair) and trading out after they take the lead and will also be looking to get in on the over 2.5 goals market in-play for a side bet.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.53 on the win bet and got 2.1 matched in-play on the goals bet. Despite a few good chances and quite a few corners for Reading this game and most the possession was Arsenal's as expected. We traded out on the back bet after the first goal with a little risk on the draw and Reading win with £65 for £40 profit if Arsenal won. We then traded out on the £50 goals bet after the second goal at 1.3 with £77 for another £26. Those who waited would have done well here with two winners recouping yesterdays loss.
|
Profit made on this trade = £66
|
| Date: 13/11/07 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 2 |
| Teams: Koblenz v Paderborn- SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Paderborn find themselves rock bottom of Bundesliga 2 with no wins so far this season. The have a serious problem scoring especially away. Defensively they are not that bad managing 5 draws from the last 12, its just the rest of the team.
Koblenz are in a better position sitting just below half way because they can score averaging around 1.6 goals a game which has grabbed them 5 wins from the last 10 home games.
From their limited history head to head Koblenz have always walked away with the points.
We will be backing Koblenz around 1.9 and trading out after they take the lead.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.9 in-play, completely missing Betfair had a scheduled outage planned at 17.30hrs for 1hr. If only we had checked our emails before the match as we had about 30 people asking why would you pick a trade during an outage? Well even we make mistakes! The game was played pretty much as expected but Paderborn were particularly good in defense. The match came back in-play with about 25 min's to go where we decided to trade out £40 of our stake leaving a little profit on the Koblenz win and a smaller loss if they didn't as we weren't completely confident of Betfair staying up. Some members at this point told us they were backing the 0-0 (smart move on their part) we decided against it and let the bet run to our detriment.
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Profit made on this trade = - £60
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| Date: 14/11/07 |
| Time: 21.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Spanish Copa del Rey: Fourth Round - 1st Leg |
| Teams: Las Palmas v Villarreal - SCORE: 2 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
With the way Villareal have been playing lately Las Palmas will need a miracle to win this one. They have managed to beat Barcelona, Madrid and Sevilla recently and find themselves one point behind leaders Madrid in Spanish 1st Division. Las Palmas are sitting bottom of the Spanish 2nd Division with 1 win to date conceding 21 goals from their 12 games.
As we come into this trade on the back of a loser we are going to take the safe option. We will be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour. Ideally this will come from Villareal.
The probability of the 0-0 is very low but if you want to be safe back it at 13.5 for your trade out liability.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in about an hour after we uploaded the trade to the site at 3.5. The odds drifted steadily to 4.3 before the off. Those who contacted us and were worried about the liability we advised them to wait for the odds to drift a little or back Villareal instead. We didn't have to wait long for a goal here (4 min's) as Las Palmas were definitely out classed in the first 30 min's. We traded out about 15 min's in with £37 once the odds had drifted to 8.4. Another goal came 5 min's later driving the odds over 30 so lots of profit available to those who waited. After Las Palmas got their penalty we traded another £5 out to give us £56 on all options just incase.
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Profit made on this trade = £56
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| Date: 16/11/07 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: International Friendly |
| Teams: Austria V England - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Austria’s worse ever defeat was as the hands of England, and at a score line of 0 -11, its something they have probably never forgotten. Over the most recent years they have had a dismal time internationally, including a 0-1 loss to England back in 2005 which sent them out of the World Cup qualifiers. If they hadn't qualified for Euro 2008 by default it would have been very unlikely they would have qualified off ability alone.
Despite all the discussions in the media about England's qualification, and the fact they have some decent players injured or suspended for this in counter, we are confident they will do the business here.
We will be backing England at around 1.75 (currently available on Betfair) and trading out once they take the lead.
The over 2.5 goals market is of interest so we will consider trading this in-play with a small stake once the odds have drifted a little. If England don't look like scoring leave it alone.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in on the Win bet at 1.83 before kick off. We got in on the goals market with £25 at 3.0 after Austria's keeper got battered by Crouch forcing them to bring on a sub keeper. England had a good level of possession but it was obvious they were missing some valuable players. Crouch broke the deadlock just before half time enabling us to trade out of both bets. We got out of the win bet at 1.18 with £130 for £57 profit if England won and traded out at 1.76 on the goals bet with £42 for £17 profit.
As England didn't look like scoring and we still got in on the goals bet we won't declare it in the profit. |
Profit made on this trade = £57
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| Date: 17/11/07 |
| Time:15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Wales v Rep of Ireland - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
The outcome of this match is hard predict with ROI chasing that 3rd spot and Wales playing for pride. Ireland go into this match with their poorest record in 17 years, having not won any of their last four games. Wales have a miserable home record and both teams are looking pretty poor in defense which should deliver some goals, with +2.5 being likely.
The Republic of Ireland should win this but we are taking the slightly safer option of laying the draw around 3.35 and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour, ideally after ROI take the lead.
Please back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability if your 'e concerned.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.35 on this when we were picking the trade last night. Those who got in just before kick off would have got a better price. The first goal came from Wales driving the odds up to 3.6. As most of you know we usually wait for 4.1 as a minimum so whilst we were waiting for the odds to drift ROI equalized forcing us to wait for another goal. The next one came from Doyle for ROI driving the odds to where we needed. We traded out at 5.1 with £66 for a fairly even profit across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £33
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| Date: 17/11/07 |
| Time:16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Bulgaria V Romania - SCORE:1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
This match is a bit of a punt, so please don't get involved if you are uncomfortable.
Romania have done well to ensure qualification, with their away record being particularly impressive (W4-D1-L0) Bulgaria have a similar home record, yet to be beaten at home. What we find interesting here is Bulgaria's record against teams of a similar ranking as Romania. They have only managed to win 11% of games. This is enough for us to take a chance on this one so we have decided to back Romania around 3.4 and trade out after they take the lead.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.4 when we were picking the trades last night. Bulgaria scored the one and only goal 6 min's in. Romania had some good chances but unfortunately no real opportunity to trade out with what we highlighted.
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Profit made on this trade = - £100
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| Date: 17/11/07 |
| Time:17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Scotland V Italy - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Italy have an excellent head-to head record against Scotland, but they have never beaten them at home. With the Scottish media building this game up as the greatest in Scotland’s history, we are likely to see an inspiring performance from them. Scotland need to win this match if they don't want to put their destiny in someone else's hands, and if Italy win they would guarantee qualification for themselves and France at Scotland’s expense.
As this match isn't likely to be goalless (Italy have conceded in their last 7 away games) and Scotland have a severe lack of draws this campaign, we feel laying the draw around 3.15 (currently available on betfair) is the best option and trading out after a goal.
Please back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability if your 'e concerned
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Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.15. Toni scored after literally 2 min's to take Italy in front enabling us to trade out at 5.2 with £63. We decided to take a bit of a risk to recoup the 'potential loss' at this time on the Bulgaria game. So we traded out with the weight of the money on either team winning, and left a loss on the draw as this result was very unlikely. Most of the members who contacted us let this one run as the Bulgaria game was going against us. This was a bit of a nail biter until the last minute where unfortunately for Scotland, Italy took the lead.
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Profit made on this trade = £67
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| Date: 18/11/07 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Coca-Cola League One |
| Teams: Yeovil v Gillingham - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
When Yeovil have played against poor away teams over the last 3 seasons (Gillingham are poor away this season W0-D1-L6 and they have scored an average of a goal every 3 games) just under 90% of games have finished under 2.5 goals . Another fact that supports under 2.5 goals if Yeovil's home scoring record. They have only scored 5 from the 7 home games played.
We feel this match is likely to be low scoring but we also feel Yeovil will come out on top. The reason we highlight this is from their last 10 home games they have lost 3. These 3 matches were to teams who are likely to finish in the top 4. Against the bottom half teams they have done pretty well. Also head to head Gillingham are yet to beat Yeovil home or away.
We will be backing under 2.5 goals around 1.9 and trading out under 1.6 and as a side bet looking to back Yeovil in-play if they look good.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our bet on under 2.5 goals before kick off at 1.84. Why we don't like to benefit from Gillingham's early misfortune (Cogan and Sodje's injuries) this has to be the easiest under trade we have ever done. The ball wasn't in-play for 13 min's whilst they were attending to Sodje's injuries but the odds continued to shorten. By the time the game started again they were at 1.43 for us to trade out with practically no risk. We gave it five more min's to see how Yeovil were paying and after Owusu hit the crossbar we got in on the back bet at 2.2 for Yeovil. After 66 min's we were given our trade out odds of 1.26 for a double winner here.
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Profit made on this trade = £64
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| Date: 18/11/07 |
| Time:21.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: International World Cup Qualifer |
| Teams: Peru V Brazil - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Peru, a South American soccer powerhouse in the 1970s, have not qualified for a World Cup since 1982. This time out they are off to a poor start failing to score in their opening two games of the competition last month, but are hoping for a hard fought win against the five-times World Champions.
Brazil, fresh from a 5-0 whipping of Ecuador, have four points and are looking sharp as usual. They do have a few injury problems Ronaldinho and Jose Luis Runco but the most missed player will be Peru's excellent keeper Leao Butrao who is suffering from the flu.
We will be backing Brazil around 1.6 and trading out after they take the lead. Expect Peru to come out firing in the first 15 min's.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.54 on the back bet. and traded out at 1.23 after Kaka scored for Brazil. We put £125 on the lay for £24 profit. Nice and simple.
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Profit made on this trade = £24
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| Date: 20/11/07 |
| Time: 21.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: U21 Euro 2009 Qualifier |
| Teams: Portugal U21 v England U21 - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
England's U21 side have a 100% record so far in Euro 2009 qualifying and are yet to concede a goal, but they do have massive problems with key players being injured, including the brilliant Villa youngster Gabby Agbonlahor and team Captain Taylor.
Victory over Portugal will practically assure them of a play-off to reach the finals in Sweden, not to dissimilar to the seniors team who need a point against Croatia on Wednesday. With the Portuguese U21 looking extremely good and their minimal injury problems this match is to close to call a winner so we will be laying the draw around 3.3 and trading out once a goal is scored and the odds are in our favour.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.2 before kick off. 3 min's in England gave away a penalty which was converted by Vieirinha giving us the trade out odds we wanted. We traded out at 4.2 with £76 for £23 profit across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £23
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| Date: 21/11/07 |
| Time: 20.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: England V Croatia - SCORE: 2 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
England are yet to concede a goal at home this campaign and have only lost three home qualifiers since 1990. This isn't going to be easy though as Croatia have avoided defeat in 82% of their away games over the last 10 years.
With both Wayne Rooney and Michael Owen out injured, it's going to be a tough task for Peter Crouch to deliver another 3 - 0 home result and, with Eduardo da Silva racking up 10 in the last 6 games, this match isn't a guaranteed win for England.
We are sure this match will be tight with Croatia wanting to impress and, with all things considered, we feel under 2.5 goals is likely.
We will be backing under 2.5 goals around 1.75 and trading out under 1.5.
We will also consider trading on the England win in-play as a side bet if they start well, as it is likely they will score first.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 goals this morning at 1.7. The odds shortened to near 1.5 before Croatia's first goal after 9 min's but we didn't trade out in time. Croatia went 2 up 3 min's later putting trading out off the cards until the odds came down. They reach reasonable odds a few min's into the second half so we traded out with £100 on 5.5 leaving no loss if the game finished over 2.5 goals. England started the second half much better and we felt backing the 10.5 on offer with a £25 side bet was good value especially as it was likely they would score a goal or two enabling us to trade out with a good profit. Lampard converted a penalty after 56 min's in and Crouch finished a superb Beckham cross 9 min's later enabling us to trade out at 2.72 with £97 for £68 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £68
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| Date: 22/11/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Aldershot V Grays Athletic - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Aldershot come into this match full of confidence. They find themselves sitting in top spot in the Blue Square Premier league with 6 consecutive home wins prior to this match and scoring an average of 2 goals a game.
Gray's find themselve in 8th place with a good away record only losing one of the last six and managing two draws against two good home teams. The do play very defensively away which is reflected in the scoreline. They have only conceded 4 goals in 10 away games.
The head to head results are evenly split but do tend to be hard fought. On paper we have Aldershot taking this but have decided laying the draw is the safer option as Aldershot have only had 1 draw in 19 games and when these teams have met previously there has always been a winner.
So will be looking lay the draw around 3.7 and trade out after a goal and the odds are in our favor, ideally when Aldershot take the lead.
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Our Trading Result:
The odds for this one were slowly drifting out as the day went on so before they tipped 4 we jumped in at 3.95. We were happy we did as 3 min's in Harding scored taking the early lead for Aldershot driving the odds momentarily to 6.8. Unfortunately we missed this but managed to get 6.2 match to trade out with £62 for £36 on the win. Two more goals followed for Aldershot before half time giving those who waited excellent trade out odds of 95.
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Profit made on this trade = £36
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| Date: 22/11/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA CUP 1st round replay |
| Teams: Staines Town v Stockport
- SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
This is the match that was cancelled a couple of days ago due to poor weather.
The two teams shared a 1-1 draw in their fist meeting on Saturday, with the non-League side grabbing a 75th-minute equalizer earning them a well-deserved replay.
Staines have never beaten a Football League team in their history, and the furthest they have ever been in this competition is the First Round back in 1984, so we are sure they will be looking to provide something of an upset against the League Two side.
We were highly impressed with Staines relentless commitment in the previous meeting, but feel Stockport will be the team moving into the next round.
Saying this we have decided to take the slightly safer option of laying the draw around 3.7 and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour, ideally from Stockport.
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Our Trading Result:
We got this one matched at 3.8. Staines surprised us and probably everyone else by opening the scoring after 10 min's. Maybe the first match wasn't a fluke! The odds shortened quite a bit as people were expecting Stockport to equalize. We sat there until half time and still no equalizer and the odds had only returned to 3.4. We decided to trade out £80 of our stake leaving a smaller profit and loss, and crossed our fingers on Staines not conceding a goal.
Unfortunately they couldn't hold out and Stockport put themselves level after 83 min's so a loss of £88 for us.
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Profit made on this trade = - £88
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| Date: 23/11/07 |
| Time: 17.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 2 |
| Teams: Osnabruck v Carl Zeiss Jena - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
At home Osnabruck seam to be unbeatable, yet to lose in the last 10 and are averaging just under 2 goals a game. If they had to pick a team to play next to continue their home record they would choose Carl Zeiss Jena. They haven't won in their last 10 and are conceding an average of 2.8 goals a game on the road. Head to head goes to Carl Zeiss Jena but nothing recent.
Whilst this will probably go to Osnabruck we will be laying the draw around 3.6 and trading out after a goal ideally after they take the lead.
We will also be trading on over 2.5 goals as it is likely but will be getting this in-play to get better value.
Back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability if your concerned its available at 15.5.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in about 1/2 hr before kick off at 3.7 on the lay bet and got the over 2.5 goals bet on at 2.04 a little over 10 min's in. Günther gave away a penalty and got sent off 19 min's in which was converted putting Osnabruck ahead. The odds were perfect to trade out on both trades to recoup yesterdays loss. We got out on lay bet at 5.8 and 1.36 on the goals bet, opting for an even profit spread.
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Profit made on this trade = £58
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| Date: 24/11/07 |
| Time: 14.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 1 |
| Teams: Cottbus v W Bremen - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Cottbus are currently sitting at the bottom of Bundesliga 1, with only one win from 13 games so far this season. This does look bad but they have picked themselves out of the gutter by winning their last home game against a top half team and only losing 2 of the last 6. So we don't think this will be a guaranteed win for the away team.
Saying this Bremen are the only team we see challenging Bayern München for top spot and they have an excellent record against teams that are likely to finish in the bottom three.
With various trends supporting +2.5 goals, Bremen scoring 30 goals in the last 13 league games and Cottbus conceding 24 we should see some goals here. So we will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two. Give it a little time in-play for the odds to drift as they are short.
We will also consider trading on Bremen in-play as a side bet if they start well.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in on the goals bet at 2.0 about 15 min's in-play just after Betfair went suspended for the first time. We also backed Bremen at 1.88 shortly after as they looked the better team as expected. Unfortunately no goals in the first half and as the game wasn't very open we cut our losses trading out at 4.1 with £100 for no loss if the game finished under 2.5 goals. This left us hoping to make some profit on the win bet. Bremen delivered what we were looking for 63 min's in enabling us to trade out at 1.21 with £50 for £32 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £32
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| Date: 24/11/07 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Middlesbrough v Aston Villa - SCORE: 0 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Firstly no emails please on Scott Carson's recent performance for England or why are we doing another Villa trade!
Middlesborough have been one of the worst home teams so far this season, the main reason for this is their inability to keep a clean sheet which they’ve achieved only once this season.
Villa supports always enjoy the trip to Boro as they have such a good record when playing at the Riverside with the last match finishing a comfortable 1 -3 to Villa and the one prior to it finishing 0 - 4 to Villa.
We feel Villa have this one so will be backing them around 2.6 and trading out after they take the lead.
There is also a high probability of over 2.5 goals (all 6 of the last meetings at the Riverside between these two have had 3 goals or more) so we will also be looking to trade on this in-play.
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Our Trading Result:
We had high hopes going into this one as Villa supporters. We backed Villa at 2.74 before kick off and got on the goals bet at 2.64 in-play with £50. The first 25 min's or so we were not 100% confident of the result but after Carew opened the scoring for Villa at 45 min's we knew that would be it. We traded out on the goals bet at 2.2 with £50 for £21 profit (regrettably as two more followed shortly after) and gave it a few min's into the second half for the odds to drift and were rewarded by another goal 4 min's in enabling us to traded out at 1.16 with £100 for £150 profit if Villa won.
Those who contacted us about this game earlier today can buy us a pint as we make it £1450 if you followed our advise to the letter
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Profit made on this trade = £171
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| Date: 25/11/07 |
| Time: 13.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: West Ham V Tottenham - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Last season's match was one of the most memorable with Spurs sneaking victory in a seven-goal extravaganza. We are hoping for something similar.
If this game had been played a few weeks ago we feel Tottenham would have taken 3 points here due to West Ham's massive injury problems. The great news is quite a few of them are back in the squad so this is likely to be a much tougher match for Spurs despite the recent improvement in form.
With Tottenham yet to win away this season and the fact that in 93% of their games over the last 2 season they have conceded a goal, this game should be ideal to trade on the goals market and West Ham or the draw market.
Our primary recommendation is laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after a goal and the odds have moved in our favour.
If you don't want to lay the draw our second choice is to back West Ham. Its available at 3.1
We will also look to trade on the over 2.5 goals market in-play once the odds drift a little.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in on the lay bet at 3.35 and 2.22, 15 min's in on the goals bet. As expected Spurs defending let them down and they conceded a goal 20 min's in. So anyone who took our advise about backing West Ham would have been able to trade out with a nice profit. The goal enabled us to trade out on the goals bet at 1.46 with £76 for £25 profit. We gave it 20 min's or so for the odds to drift on the lay bet but as everyone expected Spurs to equalize they didn't move much. As soon as Robbie Keane was brought down in the West Ham box we traded out with £89 before the market went suspended expecting a penalty to be awarded. Unfortunately no penalty but we were out safely at 3.85.
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Profit made on this trade = £43
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| Date: 25/11/07 |
| Time: 16.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Fulham v Blackburn Rovers - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Fulham have a similar record to Spurs for conceding goals, managing to keep a clean sheet in only 9% of games over the last few seasons. You would obviously form the opinion that their games tend to be high scoring. When playing against top 4 teams 70% of games finish over 2.5 goals. This does take a different turn when playing teams outside the top 4 and similar to Blackburn, with under 2.5 being very likely.
Blackburn come into this match having recently lost their eight-match unbeaten run in, when they lost 2-0 to Man Utd. They have only lost two league games this season, both preceding a wonderful array of consecutive wins which we feel will be the end result here.
Our recommendation is laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after a goal and the odds have moved in our favour, ideally from Blackburn.
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Our Trading Result:
We got the lay bet on at 3.4. The first half was fairly tight with some chances and a couple of yellow cards. The second half was completely different, generating 4 goals. We traded out after Fulham took the lead the first time. The odds went up to 4.0 for a short time but we missed them regrettably settling for 3.85 as it was very likely Blackburn would equalize. Those who waited could have got 4.1 after Fulham took the lead the second time.
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Profit made on this trade = £13
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| Date: 26/11/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Championship League |
| Teams: Leicester V Cardiff - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Both teams find themselves hovering about the relegation zone. Leicester have only collected 2 wins from the last eight home games, in fact they have onl | |