03/05/08

3 - 1

£52

03/05/08

2 - 0

£20

04/05/08

1 - 0

£3

04/05/08

0 - 0

- £155

04/05/08

1 - 2

£51

05/05/08

0 - 2

£60

06/05/08

3 - 0

£53

07/05/08

1 - 2

£38

08/05/08

0 - 2

£43

09/05/08

0 - 0

- £85

10/05/08

2 - 0

£5

10/05/08

2 - 2

£41

10/05/08

6 - 1

£13

10/05/08

1 - 2

£56

10/05/08

2 - 1

£6

11/05/08

3 - 1

£117

11/05/08

2 - 2

£12

11/05/08

0 - 2

£16

12/05/08

1 - 2

£23

13/05/08

0 - 1

£37

14/05/08

2 - 0

£9

15/04/08

0 - 2

£24

16/04/08

5 - 1

£49

17/04/08

2 - 2

£0

17/04/08

1 - 2

£49

17/04/08

1 - 1

£64

18/04/08

0 - 2

£5

18/04/08

1 - 1

£63

18/04/08

3 - 1

£24

18/04/08

1 - 0

£0

20/04/08

1 - 0

£37

21/04/08

1 - 1

£26

22/04/08

0 - 0

-£5

24/04/08

0 - 0

- £168

25/04/08

1 - 0

£40

26/04/08

3 - 2

£79

28/04/08

2 - 0

£53

30/04/08

3 - 1

£40

31/04/08

2 - 1

£96

Our Recommendation:
It's a 'Devon Derby' tonight in this Blue Square Premier clash in the first of this season's play-offs for promotion to join the Football League. Last time these two met it ended in a thrilling 4-3 win for Exeter which was only the second time Exeter have walked away with 3 points when home against Torquay (2W-6D-2L). Since then Exeter have been on an up trend with only 1 loss in the last 10 and undefeated at home in 13 matches. Torquay on the other hand were flying high but have slipped up recently, losing 3 of the last 5 winning just once. With so much to play for this is very likely to be the type of game which creates chances and goals as these teams are all about scoring.

Exeter have scored in 96% of their home games, so we are as confident as you can be they will score again tonight especially with Torquay's record of conceding on the road. Because of the way Exeter play they aren't too solid at the back and have conceded in 70% of home games this season and are likely to do so again here.

We are hoping for a goal bonanza again but will give it some time in play before jumping in on the over 2.5 goals market. If it looks open and they are shooting straight (tough ask in this division) we will get in on this inplay as a side bet. Our main bet will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Exeter . Please feel free to chase a little value by staggering your stake just incase Torquay open the scoring.

We are going to highlight it but aren't too concerned about it at the moment but please consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability if your concerned.

Our Recommendation:
Hertha are winless in three at home, but those three games were against current top 6 sides, who they tend to perform poorly against. When playing against mid table teams such as Karlsruhe they have a decent record over the last few seasons only losing just 17% of games. A lot to do with this is their ability to score at home against these teams (85% of games) and when they score 1st this improves the probability of them taking points dramatically (89% of games over the last few seasons). Karlsruhe don't have a good record when conceding on the road but have managed to grab a good number of goals back which is likely to happen here. The main reason we like this game is during May we have always profited from Bundesliga games because of their tendency to deliver higher score lines at the end of the season. This is supported by 100% of their H2H meetings with Hertha at home finishing over 2.5 goals and 100% of both teams May fixtures over the last 3 season finishing over 2.5 goals.

Because of the likelihood of goals we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal and backing over 2.5 goals in-play as a side bet . Please consider staggering your stake for value on both bets.

Those who are concerned about the 0-0 consider backing this inplay for your trade out liability. There has never been less than 2 goals in their H2H meetings so we won't consider it unless its tight.

Our Recommendation:
Neither team can afford to lose here. Fulham might be on a up trend with 2 away wins in their last 3 (after not winning in 33) but they have been appalling at home this season losing six of their last eight games at Craven Cottage. Looking at their record against bottom teams this season they have only managed to win 25% of these but with their new found form and motivation we could see another win here to lifted them to relative safety.
Birmingham are definately in destruction mode with no wins in the last 10 on the road and conceding goals at a rate that is only equaled by bottom place Derby (23 goals in the last 10). We have them on paper to score though which is likely with with Fulham only keep clean sheets is 2 home games this season. To support the probability of goals here, when potential relegated teams meet at this stage there is a strong possibility of the game finishing over 2.5 goal just under (80% probability).

Because of the likelihood of goals we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal and backing over 2.5 goals in-play as a side bet. Consider staggering your stake for value on both bets if you want better value.

Those who are concerned about the 0-0 consider backing this inplay for your trade out liability. There have been a few 0-0 games between these two but with the form trends we can't see it.

Our Recommendation:
Parma haven't reacted well to Hector Cuper taking over. Winning just once in the last 10 games, losing the last 3 and now sitting 1 point off the bottom. They still have managed to be consistent at home, scoring in 89% of these games and managing to only lose 22% of matches against mid-table opponents. They have a bad record of conceding in these matches with over 80% of them seeing both teams registering on the score board and 91% delivering over 2.5 goals.

Genoa are on a completely different run of form and have a decent record against teams with Parma's form, only losing once this season to these teams. They are also consistently scoring managing to do so in 10 of their last 11 matches. If this wasn't at this stage of the season we would definately back them but we are a little concerned about their motivation here and feel Parma will be fighting for survival here.

We prefer the goals market here as both teams look like scoring so will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. The price is a little short so it will be worth chasing a better price by staggering our stake. As usual get out at HT for no loss on under and back in if two goals come and it looks like a 3rd is on the way. For those who want a bit more security a small side bet on 0-0 will help.

For those who like a side bet laying Parma could pay off as statistically it does point to them losing here. Its only the motivation of Genoa that puts us off this being the main bet. Worth assessing inplay.

note: less money on the market than expected so conservative stakes will be needed. (Big boys please leave this alone)

Our Recommendation:
Wolfsburg are definately an improved team under Magath but they continue to find it difficult to beat top 6 teams. A lot to do with this is their high concession rate to these teams, conceded in 100% of games this season against top 6 and 74% against all teams. This supports Bayern scoring as they have done in 88% of these type of match ups. We are a little concerned that this will end in a draw which is supported by Wolfsburg's results against top 6. This is exactly the result Bayern need to guarantee they walk away with the title. We are more confident of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals delivering for us which is the result of 82% of Bayern's matches against Mid-tier teams over the last few seasons.

Because of the likelihood of goals we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal and backing over 2.5 goals inplay and again trading out after a goal as a side trade. Pleas feel free to chase value on the prices as their won't be much profit in the lay the draw bet with the current odds.

We don't see 0-0 happening but if your concerned consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability if its tight.

Our Recommendation:
We have been looking forward to this for the last two weeks! 2nd place Bordeaux who are chasing Lyon for the title (now only 4 points behind) take on 3rd place Marseille, who desperately need these points to keep their 1 point lead over Nancy in the fight for the final Champions League place. We are hoping for another high tempo scorer like their last 2-2 meeting back in December.

With the exception of the recent blip Marseille have been excellent at home since the end of October which probably has something to do with their new coach Eric Gerets who joined around that time. They have also been shooting straight since he took over managing to hit the back of the net in 85% of their home games. We are confident they will score here and if they do Bordeaux have a poor record of recovering the win against teams of Marseille ranking, but they have been scoring well on the road recently netting a goal in 8 of their last 9. So this will probably end in a scoring draw, despite that not suiting either team.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake for value. A word of warning Bordeaux have a bad habit of starting slowly and have been caught out by an early goal many times this season, so you will want a little bit of your stake on early just incase.

We will also look to get in on the over 2.5 goals market inplay if the game goes as expected as a side trade. Due to earlier loser you might want to consider uping this to a main trade too.

0-0 again isn't likely but consider it for your trade out liability if your concerned inplay.

Our Recommendation:
Newcastle's recent improvement in form (undefeated in the last 7) and the fact Chelsea haven't beaten Newcastle in their last 5 visits to St James' Park will have some of you saying we are leaving this one alone! Well if you look at when these matches have been played this might help explain why we have gone for this. 4 of the 5 meetings have been at a point in the season where Chelsea had little to play for, either they had secured the title or couldn't win the title, so the result had little bearing. This time out there is, and coming into this match after beating Utd and Liverpool recently and no key players out we are hoping this trend will finish here. As most of you are aware Chelsea have a superb away record and haven't lost on the road this year. They have scored in 84% of these games and in 100% of matches to teams outside the top 6. They are likely to score here as Newcastle have conceded in all big 4 encounters this season and we see little to convince us otherwise. Obviously we see Chelsea scoring and to be honest with the way Owen has been playing lately we could see both teams on the score sheet (supported by Newcastle's stats, 1-1 draw is prominent when in this level of form) but the most dominant trend for this match is under 2.5 goals as Chelsea have mastered the ability to win 1-0, 2-0 in this type of encounter (75% of their away wins over the last 2 seasons) and only 22% of their away games this season have seen 3 or more goals.

Its a tough one but as we see goals coming but feel it will finish under 2.5 it should be safe to chase a 1st half goal by backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trade out after a goal. If we don't see one you should trade out for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over (please feel free to back again for high odds and then trade out by laying over for less liability). Then if we see two 2nd half goals and the game is open please feel free to get backing in to spread your loss across both options or move it onto under.

As a side bet please feel free to consider trading on the Chelsea win if they are dominant.

Those who like security consider a side bet on the 0-0 correct score (you don't have to let it run you can trade out if the game is open)

Our Recommendation:
Hannover are in Limbo and at this time of the season if you find your self in a safe place (8th) you tend to take your foot off the gas. Having watched a re-run of their match on Saturday against 3rd placed FC Schalke 04, we saw no signs of them taking it easy. This season they have been playing with attacking flair which has left them exposed at the back. They have conceded in 96% of their home games but have been scoring well too which is why 86% of their home games have finished over 2.5 goals. To support this 91% of their H2H meeting with Rostock have finished over 2.5 goals.

Rostock are sitting rock bottom after their 3-1 loss to Hamburg on Saturday and desperately need a win here. It isn't going to help that they have conceded in 100% of their away games this season but they can still salvage their season if they can win their next two games. Ok we can't see it but stranger things have happened.

As we are practically guaranteed a goal but are a little cautious about Rostock's motivation to stay up we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Hannover. Please feel free to chase value in the odds. We will also be looking to get in on the over 2.5 goals market by staggering our stake as stats this strong rarely let us down. Famous last words! If the market on the draw is moving slowly (as it has done before when these two meet) you might want to swap these bets around to make the goals bet your main bet.

For those who like the security please consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability.

Our Recommendation:
Leverkusen have been impressive at home this season only losing 2 of their 15 matches and scoring an average of two goals a game. This has kept them in the top 5 for the majority of the season and at one point we saw them as title challengers. In recent weeks they have taken their foot of the gas and have now lost 6 of their last 8, slipping to 6th place and now find themselves outside the European places which was their main aim this season. We can't see Michael Skibbe being content with this so we should see a strong performance from his boys against a team they have beaten frequently at home over recent years, especially as Hertha have nothing to play for!

Hertha have been a feature of our trading all season for mainly one reason, they very rarely keep a clean sheet, conceding in 87% of their away games this season. When these two have met previously with Leverkusen playing at home both have scored in 87% of meetings and the last 10 have all finished over 2.5 goals. There are quite a few trends that support Leverkusen winning here especially if they score 1st so if they are dominant they are worth considering as a side trade.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals here and trading out after a goal. The odds are short at the moment but we are expecting them to drift a little before kick off and will look to get in by staggering our stake in play.

Our Recommendation:
Espanyol have been rather disappointing of later and are now 8 games without a win. They started the season really well but since the new year they have only won 23% of their games in all competitions. They are currently in 10th place so are pretty safe and have no real urgency to win here, but the last time they had a run like this, they ended it with back to back wins so you never know.. We are more confident that Atlético will win here as they are carrying decent form and are more likely to be focused here due to their European aspirations. They are sitting in 5th with a game in hand over 4th place Sevilla so really need to win this to grab that 4th European slot back. This definately isn't the strongest trade we have had this season but we should see Atlético on the score sheet as one of the features of Espanyol's recent down trend is their ability to keep a clean sheet (only in 22% of games) and Atlético have scored in 83% of their games this season.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to chase value in the price. Under 3.3 average odds will put you in profit whoever scores.

If the game is open and one of them looks like scoring a small side bet on the over 2.5 goals market might pay off.

If your concerned about the match finishing 0-0 please consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability.

Our Recommendation:
This should be an exciting one to watch. South End are much improved since the start of 2008. They are now 11 games at home without defeat and have only lost one of the last 15. They have been scoring well managing to hit the back of the net in 87% of their games. Why we are particularly interested in them here is they haven't had a goalless game all season because despite their scoring prowess they find it hard to stop others scoring (conceded in 70% of home games) especially top 4 teams. They will also welcome their manager Steve Tilson back on the touch line after serving a two match ban which will keep them focused here.

Doncaster seem to be ending their season like it started, with a cluster of losses. They have now only won 3 of their last 10. You can't write them off though as they have one of the leagues best all round records. But with them not winning on the road in 5 its looking like a Southend win to us. We should see them score here as they too have managed to score in a high % of games (83%) but with their recent issues at the back they are just as likely to concede.

So on paper it looks like a few goals are coming and both teams will register on the score sheet. The odds on over 2.5 are quite high at the moment so it looks like every one feels this is going to be close and low scoring, which makes sense with so much at stake. We are hoping for another 3-2 win to Southend like earlier in the season.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We will also look at the over 2.5 goals market inplay if the game is open and one of them looks like scoring as a side trade. The draw odds probably won't move much after the goal so if you want to stagger you stake for value please do!

Those who are concerned consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability inplay.

Our Recommendation:
Energie Cottbus are only two points clear of the relegation zone and Hamburg have unfortunately slipped away from the Champions League places but are holding on to a UEFA Cup place. So we know both teams should have their heads in the game admittedly for different reasons. This isn't as obvious as most people think as Cottbus are clearly finishing the season strongly and Hamburg have been on an down trend since the start of April (5L-1D-1W). When these two meet with this type of form it is usually low scoring and the winner of this match is very likely going to come from whoever keeps a clean sheet. There are also strong draw trend when these too meet with the last 5 meetings ending in a draw and 4 of the 5 finishing under 2.5 goals but Cottbus have rarely drawn this season (12 games since last at home) so don't read too much into this. The most probably result for us is a low scoring win, with Hamburg tipping the scales in their favour due to their scoring record on the road, but for obvious reasons we will take a safer option.

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Hamburg. We are also very interested in under 2.5 goals for the 1st 15 min's or so after kick off. The only problem with this is the lack of liquidity in the market so we might have to miss this or use a small stake.

Those who are concerned consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability before or in play.

Our Recommendation:
Battling Bielefeld are only 1 point from the drop zone so desperately need a win here against Dortmund who secured their survival last week. So only Bielefeld have something to play for here. Their recent home form has been excellent, winning their last 3 and they are on their best run of form this season. If they can get ahead here they are very likely to win (only losing 6% of games over the last few season) the clean sheet is quite important though and with Dortmund scoring in all but 1 of their games against bottom half teams, this might be a tough ask. Saying this Dortmund have only beaten Bielefeld once at home and not in their current form with the last 3 all finishing 1-0 to Bielefeld, so hopefully they will pull this off. This is a tough one but considering both teams scoring a concession rates we should see a goal, hopefully from Bielefeld.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. You might want to stagger your stake or give it 15 min's or so before getting in ad the odds a a little high for some of you. We again like under 2.5 goals here and will consider this for the 1st 15 min's or so if there is enough liquidity in the market.

Backing Bielefeld should also be a consideration if they are dominant.

Our Recommendation:
Both teams still to have much to play for especially Bremen who are trying to ensure their Champions League spot. The most obvious trend here is for there to be goals. Bremen have the best home scoring record in the Bundesliga with 42 in 18, an average of well over 2 per game. Hannover’s away scoring record is about what you would expect for a team in 8th position, (21 in 16), but they have been in good form lately, (no losses in the last 5) and have scored 13 goals in their last 6. We will therefore back over 2.5 goals, staggering our stake for better odds, unless it looks like opening up early on. For security you can consider backing 0-0.

Another reason I like this for over 2.5 is that there have been 21 goals in the last 4 corresponding fixtures, including a 4-3 at Hannover earlier in the season.

Our Recommendation:
Poor Hansa Rostock they are ending the season as badly as they started! With 7 losses in the last 8 and an appalling game from them on Tuesday. The main issue they have is they aren't a high scoring team, averaging 1 goal a game at home and their inability to keep a clean sheet, conceding in 8 consecutive games. In the games they haven't conceded this season they haven't lost! So are Leverkusen going to score? Well unfortunately for Rostock they have done so in the last 18 H2H meetings, winning the last 4 on the road.

Leverkusen's current form is just as bad as Rostock's and if they still have European aspirations they need to win this, but coming into this match after losing their last five away games, against bottom half teams were aren't too sure they will pull this off. We are more confident both teams will concede as Leverkusen also have major issues keeping a clean sheet, even against teams in the bottom 6 (conceded in 85% of these meetings).

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal here because we have no idea who will win this (consider staggering you stake for value). On paper it should be Leverkusen (75%) but in their current form we have little confidence in this unless they look dominant .

The over 2.5 goals market is of interest inplay so consider this as a side bet.

Please consider the 0-0 for your trade out liability if your concerned.

Our Recommendation:
Well this one shouldn't need much explaining but here we go. 2nd place Ajax take on 4th placed Twente in the Champions League Play Off. This match will be played on neutral ground due to on going renovation work at their home ground. When these two usually meet it is end to end and very open, which is reflected in the score line (22 goals in the last 5 meetings). We can't see past over 2.5 goals here which is the outcome of the majority of their H2H meetings and league matches this season, especially Ajax so we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay for better value and trading out after a goal.

Out at HT with no loss on under if no goal comes and back in if 2 come in the 2nd half and a 3rd looks likely.

Consider a little cover on the 0-0 if your concerned.

Our Recommendation:
Fiorentina have slipped to fifth place after losing in Cagliari last weekend. This has taken them out of the Champions League places, not somewhere they want to be! Despite this they have an excellent home record this season with only 1 loss in the last 10 and a dominant history over bottom half teams when playing at home, winning 96% over the last few seasons. The issues we saw with their defense earlier in the season seem to have been fixed, conceding in only 2 of the last 6, so we have no worries when considering backing them today, especially when playing a Parma team that hasn't won on the road in 18 games and has conceded in 95% of away games this season.

We will be backing Fiorentina here and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind in the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again and trade out after they equalize or if later in the game consider laying Parma once they shorten. We will also look at laying 0-1 if Parma take the lead.

Please also consider over 2.5 goals inplay as a side trade. This will be highly likely if Parma score 1st.

Our Recommendation:
West Ham seem to have been on somewhat of a down trend for the last few months, only picking up two wins in their last 10. Their current league position means they have nothing to play for here so we aren't expecting much from them. Aston Villa still have that Champions League spot to chase and with a little luck from Newcastle they could be playing in Europe next season. Villa have a strong record on the road only losing 4 of the last 23, they have also scored more on the road this season than 3 of the big 4 and with the Hammers having only 2 clean sheets at home this season we should see Villa score. We won't be surprised if Villa concede either as they have done so in all but 2 games since December. The games they didn't concede in they won 4-0 and 6-0, so plenty of goals anyway. This is our preferred trade here as Villa's away games have seen more goals than any other team, just under 3.5 goals a game.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals here and trading out after a goal. Chase value if you want as usual.

If you want a little cover on the 0-0 please do.

Our Recommendation:
There isn't much to play for here, with Liverpool safe in 4th spot and Spurs sitting in 11th. The good news for us is these end of the season Premiership matches that have nothing to play for have one thing that stands out to us and that goals with over 80% finishing over 2.5 goals historically. This is what we are expecting to see here as Spurs have scored in 100% of their home games so far and a goal here will mean they have scored in every home game this season. Liverpool have been very sharp since the end of February scoring in all matches except their 3-0 loss to Utd so we should see them score too, which is supported by Tottenham's trend of high scoring games at home 72% over 2.5 and concession rate to big 4 teams 100% this season.

As we are certain of a goal we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, consider staggering your stake for value . It shouldn't matter who scores 1st as the odds are similar for both.

We also like over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay as we see Spurs on the score sheet in the 1st half.

HT ammendment - With Spurs only having one shot on goal in the 1st half please consider the 0-0 correct score if your worried.

Our Recommendation:
Leeds are coming into this match with similar form and commitment to how they started the season 7W-2D-1L. If Dennis Wise hadn't upped and left in the middle of the season we would have probably seen them in the automatic promotion places. Carlisle have been on somewhat of a downtrend in recent weeks only managing 1 win in the last 8, slipping from the automatic promotion places. In the 13 H2H meetings between these two Leeds have only lost twice, one of them this season back in November (3-1). The reverse fixture was in April where Leeds won 3-2 at home and Carlisle were in their down trend. This is probably the easiest way to judge this meeting as both were in similar form and it was only last month. Leeds have been able to keep a clean sheet recently whilst maintaining their scoring record at home, hitting the back of the net in 87% of games, this is what we feel will take them through this as winners. But as its a game with significant importance we are slightly cautious so will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake. If the game is open we will look at over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet.

If its tight and lacking open play consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability.

Our Recommendation:
Crystal Palace still have plenty to play for ahead of this second leg of their Championship play-off at Bristol City.

Palace suffered a 2-1 defeat in the home leg on Saturday but their Manager Warnock, insists the tie is far from over and on a positive note has never finished on the losing side in a play-off semi-final, so figures crossed for Palace. The reason we want Palace to win here is because of City's appalling behavior after winning the 1st leg.

If it was to go by form alone City would lose here. Domestically they finished the season on a bad run with only 2 wins in the last 10. Palace in comparison only lost 1 of their last 10, winning 6 of them. From a goal scoring view Bristol have scored in 83% of their home games this season and also frequently concede against teams of Palace's standard. A few points to note are no H2H meeting has ever had less than 2 goals and until the 1st leg the home team has never lost when these meet.

We are expecting both teams to score here and have a feeling Palace will be really fired up and take an early lead.

We are expecting a similar result to last time and are hoping the home winning trend can be broken again!

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. It shouldn't matter who scores as the odds are fairly even. Stagger your stake for value if you want.

We will also look at over 2.5 goals inplay if the match is open.

Our Recommendation:
Rangers remain on course for a quadruple, with the UEFA Cup now arguably the most attractive of the trophies still in their sights. Rangers previous match against Fiorentina showed us how strong defensively they are which suggests this will be low scoring. They will need to be on top of their game through, as Zenit are masters of the counter-attack which saw them through against Bayern. In the lead up to this match Rangers have had a hectic schedule whilst Zenit have been chilling out so we are hoping the Gers will be firing on all cylinders for this match to take home their first European trophy since that 1972 European Cup Winners' Cup win. One of our key concerns for Rangers in this match was Pavel Pogrebnyak (the competitions top scorer) but he is suspended which balances a few things out and with midfielder Kevin Thomson back in the Rangers line up after his injury at Dundee last weekend we are starting to feel the Gers could win this.

We aren't confident enough to back anyone here so laying the draw and trading out after a goal is the better option. We also feel the scoreline will be low so backing under 2.5 could be an option for those who are interested. As a side bet we prefer to back over 2.5 goals in this one inplay if either team look like scoring as we feel a 1st half goal is likely. If a goal doesn't come in the 1st half because its highly likely to finish under 2.5 we should be safe to trade out at HT with the loss on under 2.5 as usual.

Our Recommendation:
Here we go again.. Carlisle have their sights set on a 3rd promotion in four years and a return to the second tier for the first time since the 1985. The 2-1 lead from the 1st leg will give them confidence they can do it again and with Keiren Westwood in goal, Leeds will have to change a few things to prevent a 2nd season in the 3rd tier.

Monday nights victory over Leeds was Carlisle's 1st win in six and as we mentioned before Leeds are in better form, but they have been solid at home this season winning 73% of their games, scoring around 2 goals a match. We are expecting a similar game as before with Leeds starting strong and expected them to get on the score sheet again as they have scored in 87% of their away games.

This is another game that is hard to pick a winner so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Leeds as they are slight favorites. Please feel free to chase value in the lay price. A speculative trade on over 2.5 goals should also pay off inplay as Leeds are likely to grab a 1st half goal.

Our Recommendation:
The 1st leg ended in a goalless stalemate but after watching a rerun we would have backed over 2.5 goals confidently from what we saw in the 1st half, lots of opportunity for goals (27 shots). We are expecting a similar match but with a few goals this time which is supported by Southend record on the road, with no goalless matches this season and scoring in 87% of these. Southend looked the better team last time out and have only lost 1 of their last 16 games. They haven't beaten Doncaster at home in the past and have only beaten them once in their H2H meetings but have rarely carried this standard of form against them. Doncaster could have some key players out for this match including Player of the Year Richie Wellens (groin injury) and Midfielder Heffernan who head butted Southend's Charlie Mulgrew during the first leg. Southend could be without the former Spurs striker Lee Barnard which will effect their line up.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake. Just incase Southend score 1st (this is what we feel will happen) we will be getting in on over 2.5 goals inplay so we can can cover the potential loss (odds shortening) if they do score with the side bet on over 2.5.

Those who like the safety consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability.

Our Recommendation:
Both teams have something to play for here with Stuttgart ideally needing a win to secure a Uefa Cup place and Bielefeld needing a win just incase Nürnberg perform a miracle at Schalke and win there. Stuttgart have won their last 6 consecutive home games and have been scoring an average of 2.3 goals a game this season when playing at home. Bielefeld haven't kept a clean sheet on the road against top half finishers this season and we see little to change our mind about this here. Its a Stuttgart win for us as they are definately on the cards to score and if they score 1st Bielefeld haven't turned a game around in last 2 seasons.

We will be backing Stuttgart and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind in the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again to get higher average odd and trade out after they equalize or take the lead. If a goal comes from Bielefeld 1st and its later in the game we will consider laying them once the odds have shortened. Laying 0-1 is another option if an early goal comes if the odds aren't too high.

We also like over 2.5 goals for this game but the price is very short and has very little money on the market currently but will be worth a consideration if the game is open inplay during the 1st half once the odds have drifted.

If the game is tight a little cover on the 0-0 should be considered.

Our Recommendation:
Bochum are safe and Hansa are already down, so the two sides can just go out and play without the pressure that is on teams still with something to play for. Historically these type of games deliver high scores with a 90% of matches since the millennium finishing over 2.5 goals when the stronger team is playing at home. There is little in their results to challenge this as Bochum have scored in 88% of their home games and conceded in 82% and Rostock have conceded in 100% of their away games this season.

We would prefer to back over 2.5 here but again there is little money about so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, chasing a better price and look to get on the over 2.5 market inplay once the market is better formed if the game is open.

Those who like the safety consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability (its available at 22)

Our Recommendation:
Definately not the two teams any of us expected to see here! But today one of these teams will end their trophy drought which has lasted 58 years for Pompey and 81 for Cardiff. Both teams seem to have the pick of their best players with David James, Sol Campbell and david Nugent all back in for Pompey. This is hell of a task for Cardiff as everything is stacked against them but a lower division team has done it before, in fact 8% of the previous Cup Final Meetings with a Lower division teams has finished with the the underdog winning. We aren't really interested in picking a winner here but if we had to, it would be Pompey, as Cardiff don't travel too well but we do have a few concerns over their scoring ability lately, so it is likely to be closer than expected. The goals market is our preferred focus as the strongest trend for this match is low goals. Historically only around 25% of FA Cup finals have finished over 2.5 goals and this is taking the fact that Cardiff are a lower league team into consideration.

We will be backing under 2.5 goals here and trading out around 15 min's in, maybe a bit later if the game is tight. If a goal comes we will consider backing under again to get higher average odds so we can trade out sooner. We will also be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Portsmouth. Please feel free to stagger your stake on this.