March 2008
trading advice given
Profit for Month = £1040
Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
|
|
|
£42 |
01/03/08 |
Roma V Parma |
4 - 0 |
£46 |
02/03/08 |
Bolton V Liverpool |
1 - 3 |
£43 |
02/03/08 |
Everton V Portsmouth |
3 - 1 |
£38 |
03/03/08 |
Torquay V Aldershot |
1 - 2 |
£7 |
04/03/08 |
Sevilla V Fenerbahce |
3 - 2 |
£10 |
05/03/08 |
Real Madrid V Roma |
1 - 2 |
- £32 |
06/03/08 |
Anderlecht v B Munich |
0 - 5 |
£38 |
07/03/08 |
Z. Sosnowiec V L. Warsaw |
2 - 1 |
£57 |
08/03/08 |
Blackburn V Fulham |
1 - 1 |
£44 |
08/03/08 |
Real Madrid V Espanyol |
2 - 1 |
£40 |
09/03/08 |
Tottenham V West Ham |
4 - 0 |
£46 |
09/03/08 |
Barcelona V Villareal |
1 - 2 |
£49 |
10/03/08 |
|
1 - 2 |
£47 |
11/03/08 |
Inter Milan V Liverpool |
0 - 1 |
£28 |
12/03/08 |
Aston Villa V Middlesbrough |
1 - 1 |
£0 |
13/03/08 |
Sporting Lisbon V Bolton |
1 - 0 |
£0 |
15/03/08 |
Hannover 96 V |
2 - 2 |
£27 |
15/03/08 |
Derby V Manchester Utd |
0 - 1 |
-£20 |
16/03/08 |
|
1 - 2 |
£74 |
16/03/08 |
Fulham V Everton |
1 - 0 |
£19 |
16/03/08 |
|
3 - 1 |
£36 |
17/03/08 |
|
1 - 1 |
£2 |
18/03/08 |
Feyenoord V NAC Breda |
2 - 0 |
£40 |
19/03/08 |
Tottenham V Chelsea |
4 - 4 |
£35 |
20/03/08 |
|
3 - 1 |
£35 |
21/03/08 |
Vitesse V NAC Breda |
3 - 3 |
£4 |
22/03/08 |
Tottenham V Portsmouth |
2 - 0 |
£37 |
22/03/08 |
Aston Villa V Sunderland |
0 - 1 |
- £48 |
22/03/08 |
Sevilla V Atletico Madrid |
1 - 2 |
£13 |
23/03/08 |
Manchester Utd V Liverpool |
3 - 0 |
£39 |
23/03/08 |
Sparta V Feyenoord |
3 - 2 |
£12 |
24/03/08 |
Le Havre V Boulogne |
2 - 0 |
£16 |
25/03/08 |
York City V Northwich |
1 - 1 |
£28 |
26/03/08 |
Scotland V Croatia |
1 - 1 |
£57 |
28/03/08 |
|
0 - 1 |
£9 |
29/03/08 |
Bochum V Dortmund |
3 - 3 |
£38 |
29/03/08 |
Bolton V Arsenal |
2 - 3 |
£0 |
29/03/08 |
Manchester Utd V Aston Villa |
4 - 0 |
n/a |
30/03/08 |
Tottenham V Newcastle |
1 - 4 |
£49 |
30/03/08 |
Real Madrid V Sevilla |
3 - 1 |
£19 |
31/03/08 |
Forest Green V Burton |
3 - 1 |
£14 |
go
back to results page
Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 01/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Arsenal V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1- 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Are Arsenal going to loss their unbeaten home record in this match? Regrettably as Villa supports the answer is very unlikely. We do feel they will score though which is supported by the premierships longest scoring run this season, managing to score in 22 consecutive games.
Villa do have a problem getting anything more than a draw from big 4 teams, and with 9 of the last 10 matches with the Gunners at home going to them, we would regrettable support another home win to Arsenal, especially with their current form and desperate need to win this match. Over 2.5 goals also looks likely, with Villa's scoring in the last 22 games and 75% of Arsenal's games at the Emirates delivering this result.
So we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value staggering our stake and trading out after a goal. If there are no goals at HT you should be cautious about trading out for no loss on under.
We will also consider backing Arsenal as a side trade if they start as expected.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our over 2.5 goals bet matched at average odds of 2.3. We weren't convinced about the back bet on Arsenal as Villa were playing well so it might be tighter than expected. Those who asked about the back bet we told them to leave it alone as we had already won on the other two trades in the further trading section in the members area . Villa scored first, a little suprised but we were expecting them to score and maybe win. This enabled us to trade out at 1.54 with £145 with the profit slightly weighted towards over as we expected Arsenal to equalize. They didn't do it until the dying seconds and we were convinced Villa were about to cause a massive upset. Typical!
|
Profit made on this trade = £42
|
| Date: 01/03/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Roma V Parma - SCORE: 4 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
We watched the reverse fixture back in October where Roma finished comfortable 0-3 winners. Parma on the road this season have been very poor and are still without an away win this season. When they do eventually get one its very unlikely to be over a big 4 team, as its been 8 years since they managed to do this. The win price is very attractive for Roma at 1.8 especially as they have won the last 8 games against Parma when playing at home, but usually went we think something is too good to be true, it always goes against us so out of caution we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal, ideally from Roma.
14 of the last 15 H2H meetings have finished over 2.5 goals so those who like have a side trade it could be worth it. We do have a few words of caution though. Roma have fixed their problem in defense now which has delivered 6 consecutive clean sheets so unless they look like scoring leave the goals market alone.
|
Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw a short time in-play at 3.5. This game was easier to read than the Arsenal game with Roma dominant as expected so we backed over 2.5 goals with £50 as a side bet at 2.32. The odds went up to 2.9 before the opening goal from Roma. We traded out on both bets after the 1st goal. At 5.2 on the draw with £67 for £31 profit should the game not end in a draw, and 1.76 with £66 for a further £15 profit on the goals bet whatever the score line. Those members who waited would have taken the full profit on both bets.
|
Profit made on this trade = £46
|
| Date: 02/03/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Bolton V Liverpool - SCORE: 1 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Bolton, one minute they look like a top ten team the next they are committing ridiculous defensive areas you would expect to see in the Blue Square Premier. Its very difficult to predict what we will see from them this week but we should be able to count on their bounce back ability when they have suffered a home or away defeat in the previous match, which usually means them scoring (they have in 90% of matches against 3 of the big 4 in the last 5 years) or grabbing a draw. We can't see them winning here as they still haven't recovered form losing Anelka, but they could grab a point if Liverpool are misfiring.
Every man and his dog is aware of the issues at Liverpool and they simply can't afford to slip any further if they want to secure that 4 Champions League place. With no midweek distractions and Torres looking very sharp against Middlesbrough, we feel they have enough motivation and ability to win here.
For the skeptics out there we have chosen to lay the draw and trade out after a goal, hopefully from Liverpool. There are no goalless matches in their H2H history so we should be safe to trade out in profit or with little or no loss. Obviously if you like the safety consider backing the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability. We won't unless it looks like its going to end in a stalemate.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw about 5 min's in at 3.5. Bolton had a good start but went behind by a stupid mistake from Jaaskelainen to enable us to trade out at 6.2 with £55 for a profit of £43 if the game didn't end in a win. Liverpool went on to score another two and Bolton scored a conciliation goal with just over 10 min's to go. We also had a winner on the Ajax game in the further trading advice section in the members area.
|
Profit made on this trade = £43
|
| Date: 02/03/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Everton V Portsmouth - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Last time these two met was back in December and it ended in 0-0 stalemate. Since then Everton have become an inform team, unbeaten in 8 and Pompey have slipped out of the Uefa Cup place with only 5 wins in their 13 League games since the start of December.
Everton are looking very good defensively at the moment, conceding just 1 goal in the last 7 so we feel they will keep it tight and prevent the scoreline going north of +2.5 goals. 8 of the last 10 Pompey games have delivered under 2.5 goals, so we shouldn't see a goal frenzy here with around a 70% chance the game will finish under 2.5 goals.
Despite their last meeting there is a lack of draw in their H2H history and to be honest is what we feel most comfortable with here. Another point to note is the team that scores first here it likely to be the winner, as when Pompey score first they have held that lead in all matches this season. Likewise Everton have done the same when playing teams outside the big 4.
We have an Everton win here on paper but as highlighted above, are happier with the draw bet so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, hopefully from Everton.
We also like the under 2.5 goals market as a side trade. We are a little cautious with this one as Pompey have a habit of either scoring or conceding in the 1st 15 min's. So we will keep the stake low at £25
Please consider backing the team that take scores 1st as a side trade.
Those who like a bit of protection please also consider backing the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability. We won't be doing this unless things go pear shaped.
|
Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 and backed under at 2.5 goals at 1.69 as a side bet. Everton scored in a matter of seconds with a superb free kick enabling us to trade out on the draw bet at 5.4 with £62 for £36 across all options. After the goal we backed under 2.5 again at 2.62, giving us average odds of 2.16 so we could trade out earlier on this bet, we managed to get out at 2.0, 25 min's in for a token profit of just under £2. Everyone who asked us about backing Everton we advised to leave it as Pompey settled well after going behind and the odds were really short so it wasn't worth it. Those who did would have made a profit as they scored with 15 min's to go.
|
Profit made on this trade = £38
|
| Date: 03/03/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Torquay V Aldershot - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This game should have us on the edge of our seats. Aldershot have steadily improved since Torquay convincingly beat them 3 - 0 back in August, and at that time we didn't see Aldershot sitting top of the table this far into the season. Torquay at home have a 75% win rate, scoring 2 goals a game, failing to score in only 1 game at home and that was the 1st match of the season. They aren't too hot defensively, so we are expecting Aldershot to score as well, and with a severe lack of draws we give it no more than a 10 % chance of a draw here so we should see a +2.5 goals. Torquay need this more and they have a 100% record over Aldershot but with them being so even on form we will stick to laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Torquay. If Aldershot score first still trade out as we expect Torquay to grab an equalizer.
We will consider the over 2.5 goals market in-play as a side trade but if it isn't open we will stay away.
|
Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.7, 6 min's later Aldershot scored so we traded out a 4.0 with £92 for £7 profit across all options. Not ideal but better than waiting for the odds to drift as Torquay were likely to equalize which would have left us with a losing trade unless 2 goals followed.
|
Profit made on this trade = £7
|
| Date: 04/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Sevilla V Fenerbahce - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
The Turkish Champions Fenerbahce travel to Spain with a 3-2 advantage, over the UEFA Cup winners Sevilla. Fenerbahce have had a few issues since that match. They have been struggling domestically slipping 2 places in the league with two losses and a draw to their name from the last 3 games, and were also sent out of the League Cup. Obviously not the best of times over the last 2 weeks. Sevilla are still having issue on the road domestically but at home and in this competition they are a different team with 6 wins and 2 draws from the last 8 in the league and 3 wins out of 3 at home in the Champions League. Fenerbahce's away form in this competition isn't good with only 1 win in the last 10, and this was back in 2004 against Sparta Praha, so not a difficult win. Sevilla might have lost the last game but have 2 away goals. We are fairly positive Sevilla will be on fire for this one and won't be just happy with a marginal win. They are averaging 3 goals a game at home in this competition and we won't be surprised if we have a similar result here. They tend to score fairly early at home and have managed to score in 93% of their home games. This is enough for us to support the over 2.5 goals market.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay for better value, staggering our stake so we don't miss out and trading out after a goal.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 with £25 of our £100 stake earlier today as the odds were clearly coming in. Last night when we checked we noted 1.82 down, this morning they had come in to 1.7 so we managed to get £25 on at 1.68. Before kick off the back odds were around 1.6. We were waiting for around 1.9 for the next part of our stake but as expected Sevilla came out on fire scoring twice in a matter of 10 min's, which was followed up with a Fenerbahce goal on the 20 min mark. As the goals came in quick succession we couldn't really implement our plan as the odds didn't drift past 1.66 inplay. So we were stuck with the original £25 bet which we traded out at 1.22 after the first goal with all the profit on over, so £10 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £10
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| Date: 05/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Real Madrid V Roma - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
On paper these two are of a very similar standard so we should see a hard fought game and with their playing styles, goals too. The last meeting went to Roma 2-1 but we actually felt Real played better on the night. They will need a win here to progress to the next stage. At home Real have a decent record, with only 1 loss in the last 10 in this competition which came back in 2006 against an inform Liverpool. The problem we have with Real is they frequently concede at home (9 out of the last 10 in this competition) which can be highly stressful if you have backed them. Roma have a similar record when on their travels, conceding in 9 of the last 10 which is compliments by only a 20% win rate. Both teams have great players up front and have many avenue to score goals from. Real are scoring an average of 3 goals a game at home in the competition, and Roma are averaging 2 on the road, so when you consider they both have problems keeping a clean sheet we have to look at the over 2.5 market as we are practically guaranteed a goal.
We will be laying the draw as a goal is expected and will be trading out after either team has scored but ideally Real, and will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade in-play and trading out after a goal. We will have the same though process as yesterday, staggering our stake for better value or you could wait 10-15 min's if you want to keep it simple.
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Our Trading Result:
This game should have been played in a boxing ring! 11 yellow cards... come on lads just play the game! Anyway we got in on the draw at 3.5 about 10 min's in and got average odds of 2.68 matched on our £50 over 2.5 goals side bet. We were rather disappointed with Real in the 1st half with Roma the better team in our opinion. We traded out on the goals bet just before HT at 3.9 by laying over 2.5 leaving no loss on under 2.5 as usual, as no goals came (those who waited for the goals should have been able to trade out with a small profit after the second goal or win the bet after the 3rd). The game basically started after Real's Pepe was sent off, which seem to drive Roma on to score 2 min's later. This enabled us to trade out of our draw bet at 5.1 with £68 for £29 profit on the win or £30 on the draw. After Real equalized we backed over again with £60 to turn the profit back onto over 2.5 but as this is not something we do too often, and its not in the top tips section we will report a loss of £61 on the goals bet, so over all a £32 loss.
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Profit made on this trade = - £32
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| Date: 06/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Uefa Cup |
| Teams: Anderlecht v B Munich - SCORE: 0 - 5 |
Our Recommendation:
Anderlecht, probably the best known Belgium team (29-times Jupiler league Champions) are what we would consider under performing this season. They are currently in fifth place in the Jupiler league, nine points behind leaders Standard Liege. Defensively they look good but up front they seem to be having a few issues. In contrast B Munich are living up to everyone's expectations, sitting proud at the top of the Bundesliga with only 1 loss this season, playing the best football we have ever seen from them. If they play as expected we can't appose them.
As we always get a little nervous about Cup game upsets we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal, ideally from Bayern. If Anderlecht score first we will still trade out but if Bayern equalize we will consider getting back in if this is fairly early on.
For those who like the side trade, we just can't agree on the goals market so we will be leaving alone.
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Our Trading Result:
Before kick off the odds were shortening so we rode the odds in and layed the draw at 3.3 a few min's in. Bayern opened the scoring 9 min's in for us to trade out at 5.1 with £60 for £38 profit on the win. Bayern continued to show their dominance over Anderlecht and after Wasilewski was sent of reducing them to 10 men it was all one sided with Bayern eventually winning 5 - 0.
Barry you owes a pint! Told you it would finish +3.5 after they went down to 10 men.
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Profit made on this trade = £38
|
| Date: 07/03/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Liga (Poland) |
| Teams: Zaglebie Sosnowiec V Legia Warsaw - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Its rare for us to get involved in Polish football but after meeting a Polish chap recently who is has a superb knowledge of the game and gave us complete forecast of last weeks results (95% accurate) we made the call for this game. Basically Sosnowiec have no chance of winning here, they are sitting bottom of the table without a win since August. Their main issue is there inability to score with their forward severally lacking confidence. They do have an ability to keep a clean sheet but not against the top teams. The most interesting thing he told us was they were deducted 4 points for participation in a corruption incident, god knows what that was about. Legia Warsaw are sitting in 2nd place but 11 points behind leaders Krakow who are simply superb (his words). They had some issues back in October but they have now turned the corner with 5 win's in the last 7 and only 1 loss. The last time these met was back in August where Warsaw battered them 5-0. His prediction for this game is 0 - 2 or 1 - 2. We will have to see about this but looking at the stats and historical date he just emailed us, we feel laying the draw should be safe as a goal is very likely and Warsaw very rarely draw games (5% of matches this season).
So we will be laying the draw around 3.5 (currently available) and trading out after a goal ideally from Warsaw.
The over 2.5 goals market is also of interest so we might consider a small side bet on this in-play. trading out after a goal.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at average odds of 3.6. We weren't convinced of the goals market and were a little concerned about the money in the market so we miss the opportunity unfortunately as the game delivered 3 goals. Legia had quite a few shots in the 1st half and the better of play, managing to take the lead 38 min's. This enabled us to trade out at excellent odds of 8.2 with £40 for £57 profit if the game finished in a win and just over £26 if it ended in a draw. We didn't watch the second half as we had traded out but apparently Sosnowiec completely turned their performance around, and managed to win 2-1 with a last minute winner.
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Profit made on this trade = £57
|
| Date: 08/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Blackburn V Fulham - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Blackburn had a great start to the season, then they had the blip which we got caught out by, and now with only 1 loss in the last 10 and coming into this game on the back of two wins , hopefully they can be relied on again. What gives more confidence than their improvement in form is their record against bottom teams when playing at home (70%+ win rate) and that Fulham are practically guaranteed to let one in as they have done in 90% of their games this season. Blackburn are pushing for that all important 6th place and Fulham are fighting for survival, but we feel this will end in a home win or a worst case scenario , scoring draw.
This leads us into what we will be doing here, we will be ideally laying the draw under 4 and trading out after a goal, hopefully from Blackburn. The braver members might want to consider backing Blackburn instead over 1.6.
If Fulham look like conceding it might be worth backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. We don't think we will have 3 here as this is probably reliant on Fulham scoring which has only about a 40% chance in our opinion.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.6 in-play, no real early chances and only 1 shot in the 1st 30 min's worth talking about. Blackburn had a good level of possession early on but Fulham put in a good performance. We left the goals market alone for this reason and advised those who contacted us to do the same. Blackburn opened the scoring after 60 min's which enabled us to trade out at 7.0 with £51 for the profit to be slightly weighted towards the win. As the game ended in a draw we take the smaller profit of £44. Those who took the option to back Blackburn would have walked away with a similar profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £44
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| Date: 08/03/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: La Liga |
| Teams: Real Madrid V Espanyol - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Real have had a few upsets lately, losing their unbeaten home run after 11 consecutive wins, dumped out of the Spanish Super Cup by Sevilla and Champions League by Roma recently. With the only thing left to fight for being the league title, we are positive they will be focused on returning to winning ways and start a new unbeaten run. Espanyol had a great period of form between Sept - Dec but it has gone pear shaped since Jan with 6 losses in 8 games. They are very likely to conceded here as they have only kept 1 clean sheet on the road this season. If you consider Real's scoring record of 2.75 goals a game at home we should see a few here, and if you saw the recent Roma game you will know they aren't perfect in defense so could conceded themselves. Looking at the H2H it all points to goals with no less than 2 scored in the previous 12 meetings, with the last 4 finishing over 2.5.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play, staggering our stake for better value and trading out after a goal.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.36. Valdo opened the scoring for Espanyol which enabled us to trade out at 1.66 with £142 for £40 profit across both options. We didn't hang around to watch the rest of the game as we are off out now to annoy some Chelsea supporters!
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 09/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Tottenham V West Ham - SCORE: 4 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Tottenham hopefully won't still be suffering from their Carling Cup hangover, with last weeks 4-1 loss to Birmingham being enough to wake them up. The Hammers have suffered similar losses on their last two outings losing 4-0 at home to Chelsea last Saturday and away to Liverpool on Wednesday, so they should be looking for the win here to restore some confidence. Spurs are unbeaten in their last 5 at home and that includes 4 wins and a decent draw against Utd. For the Hammers to win here they will have to score at least 2 goals as Spurs have scored at least 1 goal in 95% of their home games. 83% of these games have finished over 2.5 with the other two matched delivering two goals. The hammers have a few trends which conflict with the goals market but we still feel they will score as Spurs have only kept a clean sheet in 11% of games over the last few season when playing teams outside the bottom 6. When these two meet it tends to be a hard fought match and form doesn't always play a part, but we should be safe to lay the draw here as a goal is very likely and a side bet on over 2.5 goals could pay off in play especially if West Ham score.
We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Spurs. We will also consider trading on the over 2.5 goals in-play for better value.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.7 before the odds started drifting earlier today. We got some some of our side trade on (£15) at 2.16 before Berbatov opened the scoring for Spurs after 8 min's. This enabled us to trade out on the draw bet at 6.0 with £60 for £38 profit on the win. We also trade out of the goals bet at 1.46 with £20 for just under £5 if the game finished under and £8 if it finished over 2.5. We were a little annoyed because about 30 sec's after we traded out another Berbatov goal followed which would have meant much more profit. Eventually finished 4-0 so Spurs have shaken off their Carling Cup hangover!
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Profit made on this trade = £46
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| Date: 09/03/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Barcelona V Villareal - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Barca at home are hard to appose, they have won 11 of their 12 fixtures this season losing only to league leaders Real. The main reason they are so hard to defeat is they always score only failing to do so once in the last two seasons. Unfortunately Messi is out (injured in the recent Celtic game) so we are not sure how this will effect the team, but they do have enough ability to score without him. The reason we like this game is Villareal's away games tend to finish over 2.5 (just under 80%) if the home team scores, which as we have already highlighted is very likely. So we will be looking to back over 2.5 goals in-play as usual, staggering our stake for better value, trading out after a goal. The goals might not come early here so trading out a HT with no loss on under, if no goals come might go against you.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our over 2.5 goals bet matched at average odds of 2.36. Barca gave away a penalty in the 31st minute to take Villareal ahead. With Barca now behind this gave us confidence that we would definitely see some more goals so we traded out with the weight of the profit on over 2.5 goals. Two more followed but we were supervised that it went to Villareal which now find themselves only 4 points behind and have managed now to do the double over Barcelona this season.
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Profit made on this trade = £49
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| Date: 10/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Coca Cola League Two |
| Teams: - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
There won't be much profit in this trade but it is probably the safest one we can find for tonight. As long as we have a goal the odds should move in our favor whoever scores, but ideally MK Dons. They currently find themselves in 2nd place with the best away record in the league with 13 wins and only 2 losses from their 18 games, unbeaten in their last 7 keeping a clean sheet in the last 3. Even considering their decent form this won't be an easy win for Paul Ince's boys as Chesterfield are pushing for a play off place and are not having a bad run of form themselves. Saying this we have seen them crack a few times at home this season against top half teams so with Mk Dons ability up front and the fact they have only failing to score in 5% of their away games we should Chesterfield concede under the pressure. We won't be suprised if Chesterfield manage to grab one too as they have scored in 89% of this season home games, so it might be a game with at least a couple of goals.
As we don't fancy picking a winner here and goals are likely, we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. As the price movement won't be far it is probably worth chasing a lower lay price, staggering you stake for lower odds.
As both teams are likely to score it might be worth also considering a side trade on the goals market in-play. The last two meetings with Chesterfield at home delivered 3 and 4 goals so we might see something similar tonight
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.15 and backed over 2.5 at 3.4 with £25 about 25 min's in. Mk Dons opened the scoring 42 min's in for us to trade out on both bets. We got out on the goals bet at 2.44 with £30 for £16 profit if the game finished over 2.5 and traded out on the draw bet at 4.6 with £67 for £31 profit if the game didn't finish in a draw. So overall £47 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £47
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| Date: 11/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Inter's 2-0 loss to Liverpool back in February leaves them in a position where nobody expects them to qualify. With the pressure off they can either sit back and keep the score low and go home as losers, or do what they did last time they were in this position against Liverpool and win. Inter Milan's home form in the Serie A is superb winning 85% of their games, without a loss this season. They have scored in all their home games this season, averaging 2.3 goals a game. Their Champions league home form is similar, winning all 3 encounters by at least 2 goals this time out. Liverpool domestically have been reinvigorated since beating Inter, winning their last 4 and scoring 13 goals. Some of their key players have found their form especially Alonso, Torres and Kuyt. This one is a tough call, it all depends on the motivation of Inter. Statistically under 2.5 is well supported at around 75% probability but we feel this game could buck the trend especially if Inter score first. The safest option is to lay the draw here and we will look to stagger our stake out of caution until we can evaluate which inter team turns up. We will then look to trade out after a goal.
Those who are worried about the game finishing 0-0 please consider this as a side bet for your trade out liability.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.12 and put a small £10 bet on the 0-0 correct score. Early on we felt Inter had this one and Cruz might score so didn't put any more on the 0-0. With the sending off of Burdisso after 50 min's we felt that had their chances and Liverpool would use the extra man to their advantage. 13 min's later Torres scored putting them ahead for us to trade out at 5.1 with £60 for £38 profit if they went on to win and £32 if it ended in a draw. So overall £28
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Profit made on this trade = £28
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| Date: 12/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Middlesbrough - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
We have mentioned it before but here we go again, Villa have scored in every home game this season, and possess the leagues longest scoring run. They also have only lost once in their last 12 games. The reason we bring up Villa's scoring record is because when Middlesbrough have conceded a goal on the road they have only won 7% of games this season. We are not saying Middlesbrough have no chance here but their current form against top half teams (losing 80%) isn't good but they might score as Villa have let one in, in the last 14 games.
We do feel Villa have this one, they are well rested and in great form. Middlesbrough might bounce back well from their embarrassing loss to Cardiff so at best they could grab a draw in our opinion. But to be safe we will be laying the draw under 4 and trading out after a goal hopefully from Villa. Lots of members are staggering their laying stakes now for lower odds which to be honest is a good idea, please consider this if you like this option.
You shouldn't need to back the 0-0 correct score but if you like the safety please do.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.55. Middlesbrough scored first and had the better of play especially in the 1st half. We had to wait a while to trade out but managed to get 3.55 matched so no loss. Villa were awarded a penalty which Barry converted after 73 min's to bring them level. You could have got 4 matched if you waited before Villa equalized. We did lay Boro at 1.62 as we felt Villa would score as usual so made a nice £83 profit on this but it wasn't in the preview so no reportable profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £0
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| Date: 13/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Uefa Cup |
| Teams: Sporting V Bolton - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
A place in the quarter finals is at stake in this match with both teams looking well matched in the last encounter. We are rather disappointed to see that Bolton are not taking the majority of their 1st team players to Lisbon as they have a host of ineligible and injured players. To be honest it looks like Megson has his head screwed on, as he needs to focus on Premiership survival with Bolton now finding themselves in the bottom 3. Resting these key players is the only call here, ahead of their meeting with fellow struggler Wigan at the weekend.
Sporting might be playing a Bolton team that is unbeaten in 9 Uefa Cup matches but the players are definitely not the ones who have performed to this high standard. Their home record is solid without a loss this season and they have scored in all of these matches, averaging just over 2.4 goals a game.
We will be backing Sporting and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will consider backing them again to trade out when they equalize.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Sporting at 1.62. Bolton's youngster put on a good show but all through the game we felt Sporting would score. They just didn't do it soon enough for us. We traded out with just under £29 at 3.15, 75 min's in with all the loss on the draw and Bolton win and a few pence profit on Sporting. Sorry to see Bolton go out. Thanks to those members who sent us the emails about winning on this one!
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Profit made on this trade = £0
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| Date: 15/03/08 |
| Time: 14.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga |
| Teams: Hannover 96 V - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Hannover are one of those teams that aren't good enough to beat top 4 teams but are good enough to beat bottom half ones. Their record against teams in the lower half this season is solid, winning 72% with the rest ending a draw (no losses). They have also been scoring well at home managing to do so in over 70 % of games and in matches against teams of Bielefelds form have a 100% scoring record. Bielefeld should definitely concede here as they have done so in 93% of their away games. We actually feel we might see both teams on the score sheet here because despite Hannovers record against bottom half teams they also have troubles at the back conceding at least a goal in all of their last 10 encounters.
Basically we feel Hannover will win and both teams will score so this points to over 2.5 goals and that laying the draw should be safe.
So we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, chasing under 3.5 if possible (if you want to get in early you might want to stagger your stake) and we will look at the over 2.5 goals market in-play for better value as a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
A goal came before we got in on the goals bet but we had put £25 of our £50 side bet on the over 2.5 goals market at 2.02. Just as we went to trade out another goal game in a matter of seconds so we were lucky here. We traded out on the goals bet at 1.13 with £30 for a profit of just of £20 if the game finished over. As the goals had come so early we got in on the draw bet and advised those who contacted us to do so. We managed to get 3.3 matched with some members getting 2.9 before the next goal came after 38 min's. Unfortunately it came from Bielefeld so the odds didn't move much. We traded out at 3.5 with £97 with others getting better odds before the next goal. So overall a profit of £27.
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Profit made on this trade = £27
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| Date: 15/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Derby V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Derby are not having the best of times which we are sure you already know. What they have been good at is holding the opposition in the 1st half recently. They have only been behind at HT in 2 of the last 10. Man Utd tend to take a while to breakdown these soon to be relegated teams managing to have a 1st half lead in only 18% of games. So basically what we are saying is we don't feel you will see an early goal. Unfortunately for your stress levels the goals market is what we are interested in because over the last few seasons, over 70% of Man Utd’s away games to bottom 6 teams have finished over 2.5 goals, with 6 of the last 7 H2H meetings delivering a similar result.
For this one we will be laying under 2.5 goals but won't be trading out at HT if no goals come, instead we will be staggering our stake for better value and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour. (if you don't understand please ask).
If you get to HT with no goals there might be some value in Utd's win price, so consider trading on them as a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
Every so often we have too much faith in a team delivering a result. Today was one of those days. With 3 small winners under our belt so far we should have traded out sooner on the goals bet to be honest. Basically we layed under 2.5 at average odds odds of 1.76 and backed Utd as a side trade at average odds of 1.72. Despite it looking like a goal or two was on the way we had to wait until 76 min's in. If your not out on the goals bet before 60 mins you have to wait for a goal as we ended up doing (the odds are too steep or short). Obviously this benefited us with Utd's win odds drifting but meant the trade out odds on the goals bet were short after the goal (1.25). After the goal we traded out at 1.25 with £100 leaving a loss £51 on under then we also layed over 2.5 at 8 with just over £50. This basically left us with no loss if the game finished under 2.5 goals and a large liability if two more goals followed. As we have lots of new members, we personally feel they wouldn't have been able to keep up with the market and been able to make these desisions. So we will keep it simple and report the £51 loss on the goals bet and the £31 profit on the £50 back bet which we traded out at 1.07 with £50. So overall -£20
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Profit made on this trade = - £20
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| Date: 16/03/08 |
| Time: 13.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Turkcell Super Lig (Turkey) |
| Teams: - SCORE: 1 - 4 |
Our Recommendation:
Konyaspor's season went down the toilet around Christmas time, 7 losses in the last 8 and because of this they now seem to be playing a 10 man defense which seriously lets them down on the counter attack. Their home form is better than their away, only losing 3 in the last 10 but have looked well beaten by these teams who are a similar standard to Fenerbahce.
Fenerbahce are one of the big 3 teams only 1 point from the top of the table. Their away form is pretty solid with only 1 loss in the last 10 and 5 wins and a draw from the last 6. They are in good scoring form hitting the back off the net 22 times in 12 away games. H2H history usually delivers a big score line. Only once in their history has a game finished under 2.5 goals with 2-4 being the most common score line.
Statistically this trade has the highest probability of delivering a result we have seen in 3 months so lets hope it follows the stats.
The odds on the draw seem way short to us so we will be happy to lay at these odds, but as always look to chase a better price. If you are concerned about the liability look to back Fenerbahce instead and trade out after they take the lead (we might do both). We will also look to back over 2.5 goals as a side trade in-play.
So to clarify we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Fenerbahce. If Fenerbachce are playing as expected we will also look to back them as a side trade as well and will be looking to get in on the over 2.5 goals market in-play as a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
For those who weren't watching this it must have been very stressful. Basically it started as expected with a 10 man wall stopping Fenerbahce from scoring. We layed the draw at average odds of 3.75. Around the 30 min mark we felt they might open the scoring so got in on the over 2.5 goals bet at 2.7. No goals came before HT so as is customary for us we traded out with no loss on under at 3.8. (Unfortunately we slipped up here as Fenerbahce bashed in a few more goals which to be honest was expected, we just forgot to turn the loss back onto under after the equalizer. So a £55 loss on the goals bet.) After Fenerbahce went behind we decided to trade out of the draw bet at 3.05 with £100 for no loss if the game ended in a win and back them as they changed gear and we were concerned they would equalize and the odds on the draw would shorten. So we backed them at 4.2 with £50 hoping the bet would cover off our potential loss. The gods were smiling on us (or Fenerbahce actually decided to start playing) so when they scored two in a matter of 90 sec's we were smiling and enabled us to trade out at 1.22 with £110 for £129 profit if they went on to win or £57 if it ended in a draw. So overall a profit of £74 overall.
To put this into perspective, if we had simply had faith in our analysis and done nothing but lay the draw, back over and back Fenerbahce we would have made £318. |
Profit made on this trade = £74
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| Date: 16/03/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Fulham V Everton |
| Teams: Fulham V Everton - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Everton are the current inform teams in the Premiership without a league loss in 2008, with 4 wins and a draw from the last 5 on the road. They also have an excellent win record against bottom half teams this season (80%). We are a little worried about their emotional state after being dumped out of the Uefa Cup but that coveted 4th place is hopefully enough to refocus them for this match.
Fulham are not yet resigned to the fact they are going to get relegated with their next few fixtures being against other strugglers, they will be looking for at least a draw here. Their last win was again our beloved Aston Villa in February but that was a rare win as you have to go back to November lasy year for the previous one. We don't feel they will be walking away with anything today.
We feel Everton are going to win here, for obvious reasons but we are not going to back them as the H2H history strongly opposes this. In all their previous meetings the home team has always won the match, which is a little concerning, so to be safe we will be laying the draw (no history of draws between them) and trading out after a goal.
Back the 0-0 correct score if your concerned for your trade out liability on the draw bet.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 a few min's in. Fulham started strongly and after Andrew Johnson went off we just felt this would go to Fulham. The second half was much more entertaining with more attacking play. 67 min's Fulham took the lead through a McBride header which enabled us to trade out at 4.1 with £80 for £19 profit on the win.
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Profit made on this trade = £19
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| Date: 16/03/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga |
| Teams: - SCORE: 4 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
3rd from top Leverkusen take on 3rd from bottom Leverkusen haven't lost in the last 7 at home and are now only a couple of points off 2nd place Hamburger.
We will be backing Leverkusen and trading out after they take the lead. If we are unlucky and
The over 2.5 goals market should be considered as a side trade in-play. Stager your stake if you want to get in early.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Leverkusen at 1.58 just before kick off. 6 min's later they scored, so we traded out at 1.2 with £100 for £36 profit should they go on to win, feeling this was going to be a white wash. Nürnberg responded by scoring an equalizer (suprised) about 5 min's later so the members who were chasing more profit got caught out. Leverkusen continued to pile on the pressure and scored 3 more so it was worth the wait for them as much better odds were available after the next few goals. We didn't manage to get in on the goals market as we were looking to get in after 10-15 min, and by this time two goals had been scored, so there was little profit in doing so.
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Profit made on this trade = £36
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| Date: 17/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Ligue 2 Orange (France) |
| Teams: - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Bottom place Gueugnon take on 2nd from top Nantes in this match up. Gueugnon are now 15 games without a win and look like they have given up, which makes sense as they are 10 points adrift of 2nd from bottom Libourne. At home they have conceded in 93% of games (100% against top half teams) but have managed to score in the majority of games so we should see a goal for or against them. Nantes have found their form again, 4 wins and a draw from the last 5, scoring well in all of them and are obviously pushing for a promotion, so should be motivate for this match. When these two usually meet it tends to be low scoring, with Nantes taking the points but with feel more comfortable with laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Nantes. You should be able to chase the lay odds down as we are not expecting an early goal. (i.e. 3.3 £25, 3.1 £25, 2.9 £25). If you can get average odds under 3.3* you should be safe whoever scores.
Those who like the safety please back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability.
*ammended due to lay price drifting
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Our Trading Result:
We only managed to get £25 on for this one as Nantes were awarded a penalty 15 min's in which they converted. So we traded out at 6.2 with £12 giving us either £12 if they went on to win or £2 profit if it ended in a draw. Last minute equaliser gave us the smaller profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £2
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| Date: 18/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Dutch Cup |
| Teams: Feyenoord V NAC Breda - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
This one is going to be a battle! Only 1 point separates these two domestically and anything can happen in cup matches. Feyenoord are having a decent season with the odd slip up to refocus them. They are in 3rd place behind Ajax and PSV, scoring an average of 2.3 goals a game at home, (only failing to score once) and have been fairly solid at the back. At home they have only lost 2 this season but have had a few unexpected results recently. NAC have been flying since January winning 11 of their last 13 fixtures but losing two matches to teams of a similar ranking to Feyenoord. They have been scoring well on the road managing to hit the back of the net in over 70% of games. We really can't see a goalless match here with +2.5 goals likely, and if Feyenoord don't score in the 1st 30 min's we will be surprised. What swings it into their favour is their 100% H2H history over NAC winning 8 of the last 9, and drawing once back in 2002. The goal difference for these matches is ridiculous with Feyenoord scoring 24 against NAC's 4. We are not expecting another 5-0 whipping like their last meeting back in August as NAC have dramatically improved but 2-1 would be a more realistic result.
For Cup games we do prefer to take a safer route so rather than backing Feyenoord we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally Feyenoord. (You will probably need under 3.4 as average odds to profit from either team scoring)
The over 2.5 goals market is also of interest as a side trade so if the game looks open and their has been a few decent shots on goal please consider it.
We really can't see it ending 0-0 but please consider backing it for your trade out liability if your concerned. Currently available at 15.0
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.35 with £100 and because of the tempo of the game we got in on the over 2.5 goals at 2.62 as a side trade. The game was end to end with Feyenoord having the better of play. At HT we had no goals but we were a little concerned we could get caught out by trading out of the goals bet as we usually do, so we felt it was worth the risk waiting for a early second half goal and advised everyone that contacted us about it to do the same (those who traded out as normal would have been fine as it finished under 2.5 goals). 9 min's into the second half we got the goal we were expecting so traded out at 2.7 on the goals bet for no loss if the game finished under and a £2 loss if it finished over. We also traded out on the draw bet at 5.5 with £57 for just over £40 profit if the game didn't finish in a draw. So overall £40 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 19/03/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Tottenham V Chelsea - SCORE: 4 - 4 |
Our Recommendation:
These two have met a few times in the last couple months. Chelsea walked away with a 2-0 home win back January, and Spurs with the extra time 2-1 winner in the Carling Cup Final. Chelsea domestically since the turn of the new year have been very impressive, 8 wins and 2 draws concedeing only 4 goals in these games and with a win here could find themselves on top of the Premiership if Bolton perform a miracle at Utd. Tottenham are much improved as we saw in the recent Carling Cup final and can rise to the occasion if needed. Their home form since early December has been quite impressive managing 5 wins and a draw against Utd with no losses. We can't agree on the result here split between the Chelsea win and a goal scoring draw, but we all feel Tottenham will continue there 100% home scoring record which means we should be fairly safe laying the draw, especially as Chelsea have conceded in 82% of their away games this season.
So we will be laying the draw around 3.3 and trading out after a goal. Hopefully from Chelsea as the odds will drift further.
Those who like the side trade please consider the over 2.5 goals market in-play as 85% of Tottenhams home games have had this result, they are averaging a goal every 30 min's so get in before then.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.3 and and got half of our over 2.5 stake on at 2.26. 3 min's in Drogba opened the scoring for Chelsea so we traded out at 4.6 with £70 on the draw bet and 1.52 on the over 2.5 goals bet with £30. Regrettably if we had waited another a little while longer 2 more goals followed inside 20 min's. Hell of a game eventually finished 4-4.
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Profit made on this trade = £35
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| Date: 20/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Grays have been an improving team this season especially at home where they have won just under 80% of their games against poor teams similar to Droylsden. From their last 6 home games they have a record of W4-D1-L1 with the loss coming from a top tear Exeter side. Droylsden in comparison are having a terrible time this season especially away where they have failed to win any on the road losing 9 of the last 10, conceding an average of 3 goals a game in these matches, and are yet to keep a clean sheet. There is no way they aren't going to get relegated this season, and with morale hitting rock bottom we can't see them getting anything here.
We are confident Grays will score and because of their style of play and the best defensive record in the league we should see them win.
The back price is a little short but we see value in it at 1.48 so will consider this inplay. But the over 2.5 goals market is our preferred option as Droylsden usually have let one in by the 30 min mark which would be more profitable if you staggered your stake for better value trading out after a goal.
So we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trading out after a goal. We will also be looking to back Grays if they start as expected and trade out after they take the lead.
Please check the money on the match before getting in on the over 2.5 goals market. If it doesn't have around 6 times your stake in the boxes on Betfair you should consider backing Grays instead as there will be more money on the match market.
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Our Trading Result:
Before kick off we were a little concerned about the money in the market so decided to swap the trades around and advised everyone how contacted us about it to do the same. We backed Grays at 1.43 and backed over 2.5 at 1.84 a short time in with just £25 with a view to get the rest on about 15 min's in as we were 100% confident would let one in fairly early. We didn't have to wait long for a goal as expected with Grays scoring after 11 min's. We traded out at 1.14 with £100 on the back bet with all the profit on the win (£27) and 1.4 with £30 on the goals bet for £8 profit if the match finished over. 3 more goals followed with Grays finishing winners as expected so just over £35 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £35
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| Date: 21/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Eredivisie |
| Teams: Vitesse V NAC Breda - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
NAC were outclassed in the recent cup match against Feyenoord but their form and ability should shine through here. They are having a great run domestically with the best away record in the league. They have had a few slip ups in recent games, but looked back to their best in their recent 2-0 home win over Excelsior. In general they aren't big scorers with over half their away games finishing under 3 goals, which to be honest is as much to do with their defensive ability as scoring, but when they play Vitesse at home they buck this trend with 8 of the last 10 finishing over 2.5 goals. Vitesse are a typically mid table team, not really doing anything well but picking up points when they can. Since January they have managed to prevent back to back losses by bouncing back and winning or at least grabbing a draw in the next match. They lost their last game so they could grab a point here.
There isn't a goalless result between these two when Vitesse are at home and with 80% of these previous match ups finishing over 2.5 we should be fairly safe to lay the draw.
So we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, but staggering our stake for lower odds as the drift after a goal will be only minimal so its worth chasing better lay odds for a great difference between the two.
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Our Trading Result:
We only managed to get £25 on for this one as we were looking to stagger or stake over the 1st 30 min's or so. 3 min's in we were delivered a goal by NAC Breda which enabled us to trade out at 4.2 with £21 for a massive £4 profit across all options. A few min's later we could have got over 8 accepted when they scored again. Eventually finished 3-3, enabling Vitesse to maintain their bounce back record.
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Profit made on this trade = £4
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| Date: 22/03/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Tottenham V Portsmouth - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
This is a tough one to call but Spurs recent performance against Chelsea is enough to convince us they will win here. Pompey are without some key players for this match and their new front man Defoe can't play against Spurs until next season (terms of his contract) so they are going to have to rely of misfiring Baros for their goals. If Pompey do manage to score (they have done in 80% of their away games this season) we should see this match finish over 2.5 goals as Spurs are scoring an average of 2.9 goals a game at home this season. Previous H2H history supports this score line and Pompey scoring with all of the recent meeting at White Hart Lane delivering over 3 goals.
This is our preferred trade here so we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. If no goal comes at HT we would be cautious about trading out for no loss on under 2.5 so prefer to take a little cover on the 0-0 correct score instead, which you always could trade out of if you feel a goal is on its way.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.86 and covered the 0-0 correct score with £10. No early goals so glad we got the cover on the 0-0 but were concerned about trading out at HT as we felt either team could score and if Pompey got one Spurs might get two. 70 min's in we decided to trade out of the 0-0 at 2.2 just incase a late goal came so we could minimise our loss to around £43 with the £57 profit from this bet. Pure luck happened about 10 mins later with two goals in a matter of 2 min's enabling us to trade out on the over 2.5 goals bet at 3.1 with £80 for a loss of £20 if the game finished under and a £17 profit if it finished over. So overall a £57 profit on the 0-0 bet and a £20 loss on the goals bet for £37 profit overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £37
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| Date: 22/03/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Sunderland - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Villa find themselves in 7th spot, 6 points adrift of that precious 5th place. With minimal chances left to secure that European spot they simply have to win here. Sunderland have a similar motivation with relegation looming they also need a result, but will need to buck a trend which has seen them not win an away game this season and fail to take any points of a top 10 team on their travels. Villa should win this, they have scored in every home games so far this season and have a 100% record over bottom 6 teams under O'Neill to compliment Sunderland's winless record on the road.
We will be backing Villa here and trading out after they take the lead. If Sunderland score first we will consider backing Villa again (if they are playing well to get higher average odds) then trading out af an equalizer.
A small side bet on the 0-0 correct score could help those who get nervous about late goals.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Villa at 1.6 after they started well and got in on the 0-0 correct score at 10.5 with a £10 side bet. Unfortunately that was the best of play from Villa until Harwood came on in the 2nd half. We traded out of the 0-0 bet about 10 min's after he came on as we felt they would score now. Those who asked us when to trade out of this bet we advise to do so at the same time. We got out at 1.83 with £65 for £52 if the game didn't finish goalless. It wasn't Villa who scored first but Sunderland and as they played a great game they thoroughly deserved to win. Unfortunately we are having one of those 'Saturdays'. Fingers crossed for the Sevilla game.
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Profit made on this trade = - £48
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| Date: 22/03/08 |
| Time: 21.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera |
| Teams: Sevilla V Atletico Madrid - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
5th Place Sevilla take on 4th placed Atletico. Its going to be a superb game to watch with both teams desperate to clinch that 4th Champions League spot.
Sevilla are in very good home form with a 71% win rate, not losing at home since December. Jiménez seems to have settled in now which is reflected in their results. They are scoring very well at home, averaging 2.6 goals a game and have only failed to score once in these matches. Atletico's away form is what has kept them from challenging the top two this season, and it is perticularly poor against top 6 teams, winning only 18% of games and failing to keep a clean sheet. H2H history supports a home win or worst case scenario a draw but always a goal scoring result.
This gives us confidence in recommending laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Sevilla. It will be worth chasing the price down by staggering your stake but don't take to long as Sevilla usually score early at home.
The over 2.5 goal market is of interested so please consider it as a side trade inplay.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.8 with the first part of our stake and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.18 with £25 of the £50 we were looking to get on. Atletico opened the scoring after 19 min's which meant the odds were just a little too short to trade out over 3.8 for a profit so we put the rest of our lay stake on at 3.4 which enabled us to trade out by backing the draw at 3.6 a few minutes later. We also traded out of our side trade at 1.44 with £35 for just over £13 profit if the game finished over 2.5 goals. So main trade went pear shaped but a small salvaged profit on the goals bet. Tough day today with 3 trades not going as planned, thank god it doesn't happen that often.
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Profit made on this trade = £13
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| Date: 23/03/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Liverpool - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
We have been looking forward to this match for a few weeks now, and have moved our Easter lunch to 4pm so we can watch it. Games between these two always tend to be very tight and low scoring affairs with the last 6 finishing under 2.5 goals. The result is likely to be influenced by a moment of brilliance from Ronaldo or Torres but if you look at the H2H it points to a Utd win here with them walking away with the points in the majority of fixtures in recent years. Liverpool's record on the road to big 4 teams under Benitez’s is to put it politely, rubbish failing to win a single game, losing 78% of them. We are not writing off Liverpool off though as they are now on a run of 7 consecutive wins and looking sharp.
Its a tough call but we feel laying the draw should be safe as Utd have scored in 94% of their home games and the last 14 H2H matches at Old Trafford have seen goals.
We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Utd.
Also as there is around a 70% chance of the game finishing under 2.5 goals it should be worth a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.25 and backed under 2.5 goals as a side trade at 1.68. The game was as expected for the first 25 mins or so which enabled us to make a profit from the under 2.5 goals bet by trading out at 1.38 with £60 for £10 if the game finished under and £9 if it finished over. We also traded out on the lay bet by backing the draw at 4.6 with £68 for £30 if the game didn't finish in a draw. Mascherano was sent off after which ended Liverpool's chances. So overall £39 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £39
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| Date: 23/03/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Eredivisie |
| Teams: Sparta V Feyenoord - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Sparta find themselves down in 15th place, 4 places from the bottom. They are a team that picks up points from teams outside of the top 6 and have a very poor record against those of Feyenoord's standard. This season at home they have managed to score in 86% of their games but have conceded a goal in just as many. Their H2H history when playing at home against Feyenoord is poor with the last 6 all been won by Feyenoord and all finishing over 2.5 goals. This is what we feel is the most likely result but having watched a replay of the recent Sparta Vs Roda game we were quite impressed by them and feel they might be able to grab a point here if they show the same level of commitment.
Its very unlikely to be goalless, hence the 18.5 that is on offer for the 0-0 correct score so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Feyenoord. It might pay to stager your lay stake and chase the price down for better odds, then you should be safe if Sparta score first.
Trading on over 2.5 goals as a side trade could pay off as 14 of the last 16 have had this result.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with half our stake at 3.55 and were looking to get the rest on around 3.3 and back over 2.5 at the same time. Unfortunately we got caught out by an early goal 11 min's in from Feyenoord. But on a positive note it enabled us to trade out at 4.6 with £37 for just over £12 profit if the game didn't finish in a draw. Sparta fought back hard and eventually went on to win, they are definately turning the corner.
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Profit made on this trade = £12
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| Date: 24/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Ligue 2 |
| Teams: Le Havre V Boulogne - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Undefeated at home and league leaders Le Havre take on 16th place strugglers Boulogne. At home Le Havre tend to keep it tight and close up when they score but this has gone against them with 7 of their 14 home games finishing in draws, (but still haven't lost).They had a few issues up front earlier in the season which seem to have improved as they have scored 11 goals in the last 5 games, plus the motivation of being top should drive them on. Since January Boulogne have been in destruction mode losing 7 of their last 8 slipping 6 places. The have only kept 2 clean sheets on the road this season and these were before things started to go wrong. Most of the goals against them have come in the 1st half which is ideal if you are backing overs. We feel the best option here is to lay the draw but at lower odds so we will be chasing the price down staggering our stake, 3.4 or lower would be ideal, trading out after a goal. So we don't miss out we will also back over 2.5 goals as a side trade (£25) looking to get out of it once we have our full lay stake on or after a 1st half goal. The last times these teams met (Oct 07) it was a convincing 0-3 away win to Le Havre, they should be able to deliver a similar result at their home ground.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 2.52 on the goals bet with £25 as highlighted and waited for the odds to shorten on the lay bet. We got £25 of our lay bet on at 3.6 and were looking to get the rest on at 3.4 and under. But as usual for Boulogne they conceded a goal after 37 min's so we got caught out. But on a positive note we could trade out on both bets. We got out at 2.06 on the goals bet and 6.6 on the draw for £16 profit across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £16
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| Date: 25/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: York City V Northwich - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
York City have been on a decent run since Sept 07. They have a solid record against bottom half teams not losing to any since September and are now 8 games at home without a loss. There games tend to always have goals with only 1 goalless match this season. Northwich at the start of the season went 18 games without a win but have now decided to fight back and are currently 6 games without a loss, winning 4 (these games were all against bottom half teams, but still very positive) they are still conceding though and have done so in 89% of their away games and 100% of their games against top half teams.
We might be in for an upset here so backing York is off the cards despite the price being good value, but we are pretty positive you will see a couple of goals so laying the draw should be fairly safe.
We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from York.
Those who don't like the lay odds you should be able to chase the price down but be warned both teams have a habit of conceding fairly early.
You shouldn't need any cover on the 0-0 but its available at 16.5 if you like the protection.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.9, didn't have to wait long as expected for York to take the lead after 11 min's driving the odds up to 5.7 for us to trade out with £68 for £28 if the game finished in a draw or £30 if they went on to win. Northwich fought back hard eventually bringing themselves level in the 2nd half.
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Profit made on this trade = £28
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| Date: 26/03/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: International |
| Teams: Scotland V Croatia - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Scotland when playing at Hampden Park in friendly competition haven't recorded a win in 12 years. Will new manager George Burley break this trend in his 1st match in charge? Unfortunately we really can't see it! Originally we had this on paper as a 1-1 draw, but with Scotland missing 7 of their key players including skipper Barry Ferguson (might be something to do with the Old Firm derby at the weekend) we really can't see them achieving a favorable result against a practically injury free Croatia squad, that play a passing game which most teams find very difficult to cope with.
Its a Croatia win for us, so we will be backing them and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind early on we will consider backing them again and trading out after they equalize or if its after HT we will consider laying Scotland (only if Croatia look like equalizing)
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Croatia at 2.42, 10 mins later Kranjcar opened the scoring for Croatia so we traded out at 1.51 with £160 for £57 across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £57
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| Date: 28/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga |
| Teams: - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Rostock come ito this match slight favorites but we can't really see why? Having only picked up 2 wins in the last 10, and managed 4 draws against bottom teams (who should have been easily dispensed with), they don't inspire confidence and just seem to be treading water.. In comparison Wolfsburg have been one of the inform teams (since Mid-December) performing on par with league leaders Bayern, and in their current run of form they have an excellent win rate over teams of Rostocks standard winning 87% of games. This form was evident in their recent away win over 4th placed W Bremen and the hard fought draw against 2nd placed Hamburger SV. They have scored in 100% of their away games this season but the do tend to concede on the road, doing so in 84% of games, this has lead into 8 of the last ten on the road finishing over 2.5 goals.
Whilst we feel Wolfsburg will be walking away with 3 points we are slightly put of backing them outright because of the conflicting H2H history, so we feel laying the draw and trading out after a goal is the best option as goals are highly likely. We will look to get under 3.4 matched at average odds, staggering our stake if needed.
Over 2.5 goals as a small side trade might pay off especially if Rostock score 1st. You might want to get on this whilst your waiting for the lay odds to shorten!
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.1. Wolfsburg definately had the better of play and had a ridiculous amount of corners but unfortunately the Rostock Keeper was having the game of his life. We weren't convinced of the goals market inplay so left it and advised anyone who contacted us to trade out at HT on this bet with no loss on under as normal. The odds got to our trade out point of 1.8 (if no goals come) so we got out with £90 leaving a loss of £130 on the draw and a £9 on the win. We opted for this as Wolfsburg scoring record on the road is faultless and they had to convert one of those corners! Very lucky here as a last min goal came for Wolfsburg to deliver a well earned win. We also layed Rostock at 4.2 which obviously paid out but it wasn't in the preview so we won't report it.
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Profit made on this trade = £9
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| Date: 29/03/08 |
| Time: 14.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga |
| Teams: Bochum V Dortmund - SCORE: 3 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Bochum at home this season have been highly entertaining, now unbeaten in 7 and despite finding themselves down in the bottom half (due to their away form) they have stopped some very good top half teams walking away with 3 points. Why we like this game is Bochum are a banker for a goal, either scoring or conceding. They have scored in 17 of the last 18 at home averaging over 2 goals a game, but have conceded a goal in 75% of their home games.
Dortmund are also a team that likes to let them in (conceding an average of 2 goals a game on the road) only managing a clean sheet in 15% of games. When playing a team above them in the league they are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road.
For us Laying the draw should be fairly safe and we prefer to chase the price down so will be staggering our stake then trading out after a goal, ideally from Bochum.
We feel quite strongly you will see 3 goals hear so a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market should be considered in-play.
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Our Trading Result:
The odds were better than expected before Kick off so we put £50 on the lay bet at 3.4 looking to get the rest on after the odds drifted a little. We also put half of our side trade stake on the over 2.5 goals market as we didn't want to miss out at 1.89 and again were looking to get the rest on inplay. The game started as expected and Bochum confirmed their home scoring ability by scoring after 3 min's. This enabled us to trade out of both bets, getting out at 4.1 on the draw bet and 1.42 on the goals bet. After Dortmund drew level we decided to get the rest of our lay stake on at 2.46 as more goals looked highly likely and we were rewarded by another goal from Bochum to trade out again at 4.1 again. So overall we managed to lay the draw at average odds of 2.93 with £100 and traded out at odds of 4.1 with just over £71 for £27 profit plus £11 profit on the over 2.5 goals bet.
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Profit made on this trade = £38
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| Date: 29/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Bolton V Arsenal - SCORE: 2 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Bolton find themselves stuck in the bottom three, and haven't scored in 4 games, losing 5 of the last 6. Arsenal are now on a run of 5 games without a win domestically and have slipped to 3rd. They simply have to deliver here. H2H history is rather concerning with Bolton winning the last 3 at home, but this was when they were in a different run of form. Its a tough call but Bolton are having the worse time of it and their record against big 4 teams in general is poor losing over 70% of games. When complimented by Arsenal's scoring record (scored in 93% of games) and Bolton's recent goal drought we feel Arsenal will win here.
We will be backing Arsenal and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind early we will consider backing them again so we can trade out when they equalize or consider laying Bolton if they look like equalizing.
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Our Trading Result:
The game of the season for us this one! We backed Arsenal at 1.81 as they started really well, then Bolton grabbed a goal 14 min's in. We felt they would pull this back so backed them again at 3.3. Shortly after Diaby was sent off putting Arsenal down to 10 men. We still felt they would equalize so didn't trade out but decided to lay 1-0 at 4.2 (not in the preview so no reportable profit) which we advise those who contacted us to do so. A few min's before HT Taylor scored again to put Bolton 2 up. We then layed 2-0 as we still felt the Gunners would score. Arsenal made the changes needed to change the dynamic of the game with Walcott and Adebayor coming on after 60 min's. Gallas then scored a few min's later to put Arsenal back in the game and we decided to lay Bolton at 1.4 with £100 as we felt the draw was back on the cards. A penalty was then conceded 6 min's later for Van Persie to convert and us to trade out at 5.6 on the Bolton bet and 4.0 on the back bet on Arsenal. So our overall position (excluding the lay bets on the goals) was £18 loss if Bolton won, £0 if Arsenal won and £10 if it ended in a draw. So for all this work nil profit on the match bet. But hell of a game!
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Profit made on this trade = £0
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| Date: 29/03/08 |
| Time: 17.15hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Aston Villa - SCORE: 4 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Manchester United come into this match sitting top of the Premiership high on confidence after last weekend’s 3-0 whipping of the Reds. At home they are practically unbeatable winning 87% of their games outright, scoring an average of 2.3 goals a game and conceding only a handful all season.
After a superb run of away form (just one defeat in 16 away games) Villa have now lost two of their last four. Unfortunately for Villa when they travel to Old Trafford with this form its never a good result for them. H2H history strongly support a home win with a minimal chance of a draw for Villa.
There is a glimmer of hope for Villa in that they haven't lost on the road to any of the big 4 this season and a draw or win here would make premiership history by being the 1st team to ever avoid defeat by any of the big 4 teams in the same season on the road.
We will be backing Utd but ideally after the odds have drifted over 1.5 and trading out after they take the lead. If Villa score 1st its worth considering getting in on Utd and trading out after they equalize.
If you want to get in early we would advise you get in on the over 2.5 goals market as a side trade whilst your waiting for the odds to drift on Utd.
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Our Trading Result:
Some times you miss the boat and unfortunately this was one of those days. Ronaldo scored 17 min's in why were were waiting for our odds to get matched on both bets so no trade.
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Profit made on this trade = n/a
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| Date: 30/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Tottenham V Newcastle - SCORE: 1 - 4 |
Our Recommendation:
Most of you will already know why we have chosen this just by reading who is playing. Tottenham at home have scored in every home game this season averaging 2.8 goals a game. They have a superb scoring record against teams below them, winning the majority of matches by 2 goals. This is supported by Newcastle having this seasons record for the highest amount of away games surpassing 2.5 goals and they have conceded in 100% of away games against teams above them.
Spurs are now safe so we are a little concerned there is nothing to play for other than pride, but are they going to find it difficult to score pass Newcastle's porous defence? We don't think so! Also Newcastle won the reverse fixture back in September so they should be out for revenge hopefully.
We will be backing Spurs and trading out after they take the lead. If Newcastle score 1st (inside 30 min's) we will consider backing Spurs again after the odds have drifted a little and if Spurs look like equalizing laying Newcastle is another option. Laying 0-1 at this point should pay out too (don't do this if their heads are still in the changing rooms).
We are also very confident of over 2.5 goals working for us so backing this in-play and trading out after a goal makes a decent side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
Newcastle started the better so we gave a short time for the game to settle and Spurs to get into the game. We got in at 1.75 on the Spurs back bet and 1.95 on the over 2.5 goals bet. As expected Spurs opened the scoring after 25 min's for us to trade out on both bets. We got out at 1.32 on the Spurs bet with £132 and 1.54 on the over 2.5 goals bet with £50. We felt Spurs were lucky here as Newcastle were playing well. King Kev and Toon Army went to town on Spurs in the second half which gave us a glimpse of what we have got coming from them next season.
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Profit made on this trade = £49
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| Date: 30/03/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera |
| Teams: Real Madrid V Sevilla - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Real's lead at the top has now been cut to 3 points after a poor run of late, losing 5 of the last 8. They come into this match after 2 consecutive losses which historically means they bounce back to a win, as they have avoided losing a 3rd consecutive match on 90% of occasions. We don't want to paint a gloomy picture as they have still managed to win 85% of their home games this season, failing to score in just 1, but Sevilla come into this meeting knowing they have beaten Real on the last 3 occasions and will be looking to secure that last Champions League spot. Its a tough call but Real always seem to have problems with Sevilla's style of play so picking a winner is off the cards and draws are few and far between so laying the draw and a side bet on the goals market should be safe, as these two always deliver big scoreline's with 9 of the last 10 delivering over 2.5 goals.
So we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal, ideally from Real and we will also be looking to get in on the over 2.5 goals market in-play as a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
We managed to get £55 of our £100 lay stake on earlier today and before the 1st goal but we were a little too late for the goals bet so missed out on this. After the goal we traded out at 5.2 with £35 for £19 if the game didn't finish in a draw. 37 min's in Sevilla brought themselves level and we had a flood of members telling us they were getting back in. We opted to finish where we were but agreed it was a good decision. 2 min's later Real were ahead again and followed this goal up with another 65 min's in. Real following their bounce back stats yet again!
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Profit made on this trade = £19
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| Date: 31/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Forest Green V Burton - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Forest Green are having a decent season but are now in limbo, safe from relegation but far enough away from promotion that there is nothing left to fight for so are likely to coast for the rest of their games. At home they tend to score and have done so in 90% of their games scoring an average of 2 goals a game. The other side of this is they also concede over 1.5 goals a game and have done so in 100% of their home games against those in the top half such as Burton. This season 80% of their home games have finished over 2.5 goals.
Burton are sitting in 3rd place 2 points behind Torquay. They are on a run for promotion with not losses in the last 6 games and really need to win this to stay in touch of the play off places. They tend to keep it tight when on the road which is why they have only lost 14% of away games this season and with the extra motivation of potentially joining league two they could break Forest Greens 100% home record over them.
Because of the H2H history we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. Its worth staggering your lay stake here as the odds won't move much but if you get under 3.4 matched you should be fairly safe whoever scores.
There has never been a goalless game between these two but if your concerned consider backing the 0-0 either before or in-play for your trade out liability.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 in-play and were rewarded by a goal from Forest Green after 19 min's which enabled us to trade out at 3.85 with £85 for £14 profit if the game didn't finish in a draw and £7 if it did. Lots of members waited as they felt Forest were dominant, this paid off when they scored again 36 min's in for the odds to drift past way beyond 10 for a much bigger profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £14
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