02/06/08

1 - 0

£23

03/06/08

1 - 0

£25

04/06/08

1 - 0

£30

07/06/08

0 - 1

£99

07/06/08

1 - 0

£57

08/06/08

0 - 1

£45

08/06/08

2 - 0

£62

09/06/08

3 - 0

£33

10/06/08

4 - 1

£61

11/06/08

1 - 2

£47

12/06/08

2 - 1

£37

13/06/08

4 - 1

£31

14/06/08

0 - 1

£53

15/06/08

2 - 0

£16

16/06/08

0 - 1

£21

17/06/08

2 - 0

£21

18/06/08

1 - 2

£69

19/06/08

2 - 3

£74

20/06/08

1 - 0

- £70

21/06/08

1 - 1

£33

22/06/08

0 - 0

- £69

25/06/08

3 - 2

£56

26/06/08

0 - 3

- £22

27/06/08

1 - 1

£24

28/06/08

2 - 4

-£125

29/06/08

1 - 0

£46

Our Recommendation:
Holland come into their last friendly before Euro 2008 in decent form W3-D1-L0 with a 3-0 win against Croatia away and Ukraine at home, as well as a 4-3 comeback win over Austria after going 3-0 down. Their last game ended in a draw against Denmark where they looked tired, hopefully this won't be an issue in this match up. Wales are on their best run since 1958 where they qualified for the 1958 World Cup. They are undefeated in 5, winning the last 3 including 3-0 win over Norway who are ranked 23 places above them. Excusing this result the rest of their opponents were not much of a test unlike this fixture. The last time Wales met a team ranked in the top 10 they managed to hold them to a goalless draw (Germany) which is exactly what we are expecting them to try to do here. Although we can't see them stopping the Ajax scoring machine Klaas Jan Huntelaar from getting on the score sheet.

For us its the same trade we have done for the last few days. We will be backing Holland and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind in the 1st 30min's we will consider backing them again for higher average odds, if its later in the game we will consider laying Wales. If they look tired as they did on Thursday, don't do it unless your confident they can equalize.

Over 2.5 goals is also of interested as a side trade inplay. Usual trade out method if no goal before HT.

Not that we can see it happening but if your concerned it might be worth a small side bet on the 0-0. £5 should do it as the odds are at 22.

Our Recommendation:

Historically Lillestrom have a superb record over Bodo only losing 8% of games. This doesn't improve much in Bodo's favour when they are at home as they have only taken 3 points from Lillestrom once in the last 12 meetings. But it looks like things are changing, you only have to look at their league placing's. Bodo are sitting 3rd from top undefeated at home with a 100% scoring record and Lillestrom are 2nd from bottom without an away win so far this season and a 100% conceding record. We aren't 100% confident Bodo will beat Lillestrom but with their form and the confidence this brings they should be able to pull off at least a draw, especially with their new fire power up front.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We will look to stagger our lay stake for better value to ensure we profit whoever scores first. We also like over 2.5 goals here so will look to trade this inplay. Usual trade out plan if no goal before HT on the goals bet.

Please consider covering the 0-0 if your concerned the match will finish goalless. Its available at 17.

Our Recommendation:
We have been discussing this one for hours and finally agreed on what we feel is the best option for this match. Basically our main concern is, are France going to be playing the same Columbian team that held Brazil to a goalless draw and beat Argentina late last year? Well the team line up is similar but looking at their most recent results it doesn't look like it (1-2 loss to Honduras, 0-1 loss to Rep Ireland) but are we confident enough to right them off and the answer is no! The last time these two met was back in 2003 in the Confederations Cup where France won 1-0 and were ranked No1 by Fifa, this time they a lot closer in ranking. France at home in recent year (since 05) have been strong, winning 57% and only losing 13%. Columbia have also been strong on the road, winning 58% of their games. Another thing that stands out to us is the fact France drew 0-0 with Paraguay recently, Columbia battered them 5-0 in their last meeting, a little concerning I'm sure you'll agree. We are expecting both teams to score here which is supported by the fact France tend to score well against teams outside the top 15 (usually twice) and Columbia have a good record of scoring against the big boys especially in friendly's. The bookies have this as an easy win for France, we just aren't convinced.

So we will be laying France (with only half a stake) and backing over 2.5 goals inplay, because a feature of France's home games is a 1st half goal. You might want to stagger your stake for better value. We will trade out at HT as usual on the goals bet, for no loss on under. If two come and it looks like a 3rd is on its way consider getting back in.

Our Recommendation: Spain’s recent match against Peru (64^th ranked) had us concerned as they seriously made hard work of it just managing to clinch the injury time winner. Usually at this point one of the big boys does this then change up a gear to restore some confidence. We definitely aren’t writing them off yet as a few tweaks in defence and a motivated midfield should make easy work of the USA team which looked tired in the recent match against England. H2H Spain have won the previous two encounters 3-1 and have a superb win rate at home in recent years, winning the last 6 games. We aren’t expecting them to score 3 tonight as USA can hold their own in defence these days but should have enough to win.  We will be backing Spain here and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will consider backing them again once the odds have drifted a little for higher average odds, ideally trading out after they equalize. If USA take the lead later in the game we will consider laying them as we do expect Spain to pull one back. A side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1^st half is also a consideration. Usual trade out plan should no goal come before HT.

David's Recommendation:
The Czech Republic are arguably the ultimate dark horses in this year's competition. The unpredictability of their performances during the qualifying campaign only served to add to the mystery. A poor 2-1 home defeat at home to Germany was more than adequately compensated by a sparkling 3-0 win later on in Munich. There is certainly plenty of quality in the team, but no outstanding performer. To some extent the same can be said about Switzerland, but it is even harder to guess how they will perform. Normally one could point to home advantage, but will the Swiss crowd be up for the challenge of inspiring their team to qualification from the group? What stands out for me here is the defensive qualities of both teams, so I do not expect a goal fest here. Czech Republic also possess in my opinion the best goalkeeper in the tournament in Petr Cech. If we get 3 goals or more we can consider ourselves lucky. So will trade on under 2.5, backing out as the game progresses (possibly after 15 minutes depending on how things go) The other strategy will be to lay the draw and cover with a small trade on 0-0. If a goal comes too soon we might find that our profit is small, so ideal would be a goal in the second half for either team.

Our Recommendation:
Portugal didn't really inspire us with confidence in their qualification for this competition only just securing a place. We are hoping things will change here. If they score 1st they have a great record of holding on to win (88%) and when you consider they haven't drawn a group match in the last 4 major competitions all we need is a goal from them. We shouldn't have to worry too much as they have scored in 19 of the last 20 and all previous meetings against Turkey, winning the last 6 H2H meetings. In the last 10 matches played in a neutral location Turkey haven't beaten any team inside the top 30, so a win here looks a long shot but isn't unheard of from the lowest ranked team in this group. We like the probability of a 1st half goal here so will be looking at over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay, but using 1st day caution as our main bet by laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Portugal.

If your concerned consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability.

Usual trade out on the over 2.5 goals bet at HT if no goal comes and 1.8 on the draw if it remains goalless.

David's Recommendation:
If logic plays any part in football then we could sit back and expect a comfortable win from Croatia. The Swiss were meant to be the stronger of the 2 hosts and yet still lost their opening match though perhaps slightly unluckily. As has now been well documented, some Austrian ‘fans’ were so confident in their team that they established a website to lobby for their withdrawal from the tournament. Croatia are 15th in the FIFA rankings, while Austria are 92nd Yet I would prefer to see how play develops as sometimes teams with nothing to lose and whole host of people to prove wrong can play out of their skins. Furthermore Croatia are of course missing their talisman Eduardo (yes, the one who had the horrific leg break earlier in the season) and even though Croatia has other highly capable strikers, Eduardo got 10 during the qualifiers. For all these reasons we will, at least to begin with, go with the safer option of laying the draw. If Austria look like performing as badly as most people expect, we will consider laying them. Otherwise we will wait and see. A small trade on over 2.5 once the odds have drifted upwards might be considered later on if it is open.

 

Our Recommendation:

The Germans had a decent qualification, scoring more goals than anyone else and qualifying 1st. In their most recent games they have looked very sharp with a record of 4W-2D-0L. Poland are 1st time visitors to the European Championships finishing top of their group, but defensively they had a few issues conceding 12 goals in the 14 games. This hasn't improved much as they have conceded in their last 3 against teams that shouldn't really get on the score sheet if they are to have a chance in this competition. When these two have met previously the German's usually walk away with the win, they are also undefeated in the last 15 H2H matches against Poland. Its also around 40 consecutive games since Germany lost to a team with Poland's ranking, so we can't really see past the Germany win.

We will be backing Germany here and trading out after they take the lead. We also like the probability of a 1st half goal so will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal. Usual trade out on the goals bet if we don't see one before HT, back in if we see two early 2nd half goals and are concerned a 3rd is on its way. If Germany go behind in the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again for higher average odds so we can trade out when they equalize or if its later in the game we will consider laying Poland. If Germany are playing poorly, not likely but possible, wait until you have confidence in what your seeing.

Our Recommendation:
Its been 20 year since Holland have won any silverware but it might be a good omen that their now Manager Marco Van Basten was a player in the Dutch side that won the silverware at Euro 88. Under Van Basten they have an excellent record, avoiding defeat in 89% of games and when scoring they have only lost 4% of these games. Not many of these matches were against top 10 teams like Italy, but they still have only lost one of these top ten encounters (Portugal 1-0). We are a little worried about the team they are likely to put out, with 5 of their best players injured the Azzurri will make things difficult for this inexperienced Dutch side.

World Champions Italy are the highest ranked side in the 'Group of Death' and favorites to win here. They have a superb record in group stage matches only losing once in the last 28 tournaments. Saying this we do have a concern about them in defence. Despite finishing top in their group for qualification they conceded more goals than any other team and have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last 5 games coming into this competition. Without these issues we would have considered backing them but we are expecting this game to end in a goal scoring draw.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake. The draw odds are short at 3.1 so you might want to reappraise your trade out odds from the usual 1.8 if no goal comes. We also like over 2.5 goals so will be looking to get in on this as a side trade inplay. Usual trade out if we don't see a 1st half goal.

Our Recommendation:

Rumors are that Torres with be accompanied by Villa this time out rather than the conservative formation used against the USA and Peru. This is what's needed in our opinion to allow Torres to feel less hampered and perform in this match.
We are going to put our necks on the chopping block for this one as we feel Spain will win this. Ignoring all the talk about being slow starters and a poor 1st match win rate (26%). We feel they have now proved they can start strongly having won their last 3 opening games in major competitions. These were also against teams of a similar ranking to Russia so it should be a good measure how they will start against them. Under Luis Aragones the Spanish have a superb record only losing 11% of their games and against teams outside the top 20 they have only lost 4%. Russia have slipped over the years from their 3rd place Fifa ranking in 96 to 24th currently. Against teams of Spain's ranking in this period they are yet to win on neutral territory, managing only a 13% win rate overall on their travels. With the loss of strikers P Pogrebnyak (injury) and Arshavin (suspension) we just can't see Russia having enough firepower to win here so will be backing Spain and trading out after they take the lead. If Spain go behind we will consider backing them again if its inside the 1st 30 min's after this we will consider laying Russia. Obviously don't do this until you have confidence they will equalize.

We are not quite sure about the goals market so will make this decision inplay probably only using the smaller side stake of £25 on over 2.5. Trading out at HT if no goal arrives.

Not that we think a 0-0 is likely here but a small stake on this will give you some cover if your concerned.

 

Our Recommendation:
We are expecting a red card in this game! These two really don't get on and with both teams needing a win to maintain a fighting chance of staying in this competition, tempers are likely to get the better of some of the players. The last time these teams met was a playoff match in 2005 for the World Cup qualifiers. The Swiss won by away goals and all hell broke loose in the tunnel. The Turks were punished with a five-game home stadium ban by Fifa. This definately hasn't been forgotten by the fans.

We have these two much closer on paper than Fifa but are expecting a winner and a 1st half goal which is supported in their H2H history and against teams of a similar ranking. Turkey do come off worse despite the higher Fifa ranking in our analysis with only a 25% win rate since Euro 96 out side Turkey against similar teams. Switzerland have better win stats but not strong enough to support as a back bet. They do have a decent record of avoiding defeat at home though (84% probability). After much discussion we feel laying the draw is the best option here and trading out after a goal, ideally from the Swiss as the odds will drift a little further. As mentioned above a 1st half goal is expected so we will look to back over 2.5 goals a side trade inplay. If no goal comes before HT we will trade out with the loss on over and no loss on under as usual. Back in if 2 come in the 2nd half and a 3rd looks likely.

If your concerned a little cover on the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability will help if we don't see a goal before the draw odds reach 1.8 (our usual trade out point).

David's Preview: (we will be doing the same trade)
Germany started their Euro 2008 campaign with a fairly impressive win, although they were helped by some unimpressive defending from Poland.

Croatia were poor against Austria and in the end they were somewhat fortunate to get the win. It seems that fears over the affects of missing Eduardo were confirmed. The head-to-head record is heavily in favour of Germany, but Croatia did famously knock them out of the 1998 World Cup and the current team, despite their poor start, should not be underestimated.

For this reason, though I feel Germany may win, we will do the more cautious lay of the draw, trading out after a goal from hopefully Germany. If Croatia score first we will trade out for no loss. I expect this will finish in a win for Germany or a score draw. I really do not think we need to worry about 0-0 here so it is not necessary to cover this unless its really tight inplay.

We have added a bit for our members (David will make his decisions about other markets inplay as usual) Croatia away from home against top 10 teams have scored in 82% of matches and kept only 2 cleans sheets. That has lead to the majority of games finishing over 2.5 goals (9 of the last 11). Whilst Germany's matches have usually been low scoring we feel it is worth considering the over 2.5 goals market inplay as a side trade. If no goal comes before HT out by laying over 2.5 moving the loss onto over. If 2 goals come consider getting back in if a 3rd looks likely (Usual plan).

 

Preview:

A dutch victory here will send them through to the knockout stages and a french loss would put their backs against the wall and under serious pressure. If Holland's recent display of superb counter-attacking football is anything to go by France are going to have a few problems here! France's defensive set up was all wrong for the game against Romania but would probably be the best option against this Dutch side. This still leaves France's issue up front where they seem to be missing Vieira, hopefully Henry will be fit as they are likely to need him. Usually when 1st match winners meet in the 2nd group game the team that failed to win their 1st match tend to come off worse. Bizarrely when the two teams are highly ranked like these two this switches around with the losing team coming out winners 68% of the time. France have a strong record against top 10 teams in major comps. only losing once since the millennium (against Holland). On neutral ground they have been practically unbeatable especially in recent years. This is a seriously tough call and isn't likely to be a high scoring match if France are set up defensively. You only have to look at their recent match results to see this (only 5 goals scored in 6 games).

For us the only option is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. It shouldn't really matter who scores as the odds will drift in our favour.

Looking at when these two usually score goals we are expecting a 1st half goal so will consider backing over 2.5 goals inplay. The odds will drift a long way in the 1st half so please consider stagger your stake for better value. As usual trade out at HT by laying over with the same stake so the loss is sitting on over 2.5. Back in if 2 come early in the 2nd half and your concerned.

If your concerned backing the 0-0 correct score is there for some safety in play.

 

Preview:
Historically Greece had a poor record against Russia only managing to win once in the previous 10 meetings. Saying this Greece are now a different team and ranked 8th in the World by Fifa a long way from their 66 place ranking 10 years ago. We were rather shocked by their performance against Sweden in the opening match but feel the defending champions can turn it around. Greece have a strong record away from home in recent years avoiding defeat in 76% of games. Against teams of a similar ranking to Russia, Greece are unbeaten in 9 games, taking 3 point in 7 of them. Russian have quite a poor record on their travels especially against teams of a higher ranking and are without a win on neutral ground in over 10 years against these teams. To compliment this poor record when they have previously been on the backfoot with a 1st round loss they haven't managed to turn it around in the next match, losing or drawing at best. So all things considered if Greece start well they should win here.

We are still a little concerned by what we saw in the Sweden game so out of caution we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Staggering your stake for shorter lay odds makes sense just incase Greece score 1st. We also like the over 2.5 goals market so will be looking at this in the 1st half as a side trade. Usual trade out plan.

 

Preview:

Portugal are through with 2 wins and the Swiss are out after losing their previous 2 games, with both these teams performing as expected by most. We are a little disappointed for the Swiss as they did play some good football in these matches but are obviously lacking some firepower. Portugal fought hard in their matches showing they have a solid defense and superb midfield, which despite being Switzerland's strength its likely to put them under some serious pressure in this match. With Scolari looking to rest Ronaldo, Deco and Simao and the Swiss still chasing their 1st ever win at the European Championships this might be a little closer than expected. We also have a niggling statistic we can't ignore, no top 10 team has won in Switzerland in the last 29 years! They have a record of 5W-5D-0L. Whether this stat will continue its hard to say but considering Portugal's strong record of avoiding defeat (88% under Scolari) we might see an end to this trend. What we are more confident of is goals. Historically 75% of final group games deliver 3 goals or more and with Portugal's record of scoring this is hard to oppose. This is also supported by teams with a similar points difference finishing over 2.5 goals on 78% of occasions. With both teams knowing their fate this is likely to be open and end to end and if the Swiss get on the board, high scoring.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Portugal. We also like over 2.5 goals as highlighted above, definately worth considering inplay. Usual trade out plan if no goal comes before HT. If Portugal go behind a small side bet on them is worth considering as we feel they should equalize.

 

Preview:

Austria need a win against Germany to have any chance of making it through to the next round. Germany on the other hand need a morale boosting win themselves to make up for the disappointing to loss to Croatia. Can the co-host take inspiration from the Swiss win yesterday to defeat the mighty Germany? Well, we don't think so! Austria haven't beaten a top 20 team in 10 years and since then they have a record against these teams of W0-D2-L9. Germany is at the other end of the scale during the same period W19-D7-L1 (loss coming 10 years ago). Probably the main reason we feel Austria can't win this is they find it very difficult to keep a clean sheet managing to do so in only 10% of their games and conceding in 100% against top 10 ranked teams in the last 10 years. The good news for those who like to have the odd side bet is they frequently concede in the 1st half (83% of meetings against top 20). The only concern we have about this game is Germany only need a draw, but playing for the draw isn't a very safe option so we still expect them to play for the win.

We will be backing Germany and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will consider backing them again once the odds drift a little if its inside the 1st 30 min's, after this we will look to lay Austria. We also like over 2.5 goals as a side trade for obvious reasons so will look to get on this inplay. Usual trade out play on the goals bet if we don't see a goal before HT.

 

Preview:
If you watched Marco van Basten’s men beat both Italy (3-0) and France (4-1), in what can only be described as a world class example of counter-attacking football, then you will probably be thinking they will do it all again here. Statistically teams that have secured two wins and are attempting to win a 3rd consecutive group match have a strong history of doing (71%). This is improve slightly when the opponent has a lower ranking to 77%. Previous meetings between these two have been close with Holland having slightly better results but Romania have dramatically improved in the last few years winning their last meeting in qualification 1-0. A key feature of Romania's recent wins is the ability to keep a clean sheet, whether they can do it here we will have to see but after witnessing Holland's deadly counter attack its hard to imagine that happen here (92% of previous matches with the same dynamic have seen the already qualified team score). When it comes to recommending a result here it will be highly dependant on the team Van Basten fields. Whilst we feel Holland will get on the score sheet we have been swayed by the conspiracy theory that Netherlands will let Romania win this to prevent the World Cup finalist making it to the next stage so out of caution we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We definately won't be surprised if Romania get on the score sheet 1st.

We also like the probability of a goal in the 1st half so will look to get on over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet. Usual trade out if no goal before HT.

Note: The odds have drifted out from 3.7 when we looked so please give it a little time inplay to shorten to a level you find acceptable. About 15 min's in should have enough of a drift.

 

Preview:

For Greece, this final game should have at least been the game that moved them into the knock out stages but they have been a shadow of their former selves this time out, not even scoring a single goal. Before their two most recent defeats, they had avoided defeat in 80% of games outside of Greece scoring in 83% of games. Against teams of Spain's standard they a haven't lost since Euro 2004. They definately didn't look like a team with this record in the meetings against Russia and Sweden and with so many key players out they look very fragmented. If Greece can prevent Spain from scoring they might have a chance here as they have avoided defeat in the last 5 games when keeping a clean sheet. Whether they can prevent a Spanish team who has scored in 96% of games outside of Spain we will have to see, but it doesn't look good for the Greeks. We find it hard to oppose Spain here even though they are playing 10 different starters from the 1st two matches. These are not your average players and with Greece hard hit by injuries and playing a lot of their 2nd choice players we should see Spain win here.

We will be backing Spain here and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind in the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again and trading out after they equalize. After this we will look to lay Greece. If Spain are playing poorly don't consider this until you have some confidence.

We also like the chance of a 1st half goal so will look to back over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet. If no goal come out at HT for no loss on under as usual. Back in if your concerned 3 are coming.

 

Preview:
Portugal have become a very impressive tournament side in recent years making it to the final 8 in the last 4 major competitions. Coming into this Quarter Final they have looked the more impressive of side. These two have met quite a few times in recent years with Germany avoiding defeat in 8 of the last 10. Its worth pointing out that Portugal only lost 1 of the last 4 which supports their improvement in form over the last few years. Against top 10 teams Portugal have the better record over the last decade, only losing 16% of games. Germany on the other hand have had a few issues with top 10 teams only picking up 1 win in the last 6. Saying this they do have a good record in the knock out stages, progressing in 69% of encounters which supports the well known phrase 'never write of the Germans'.

In general you would expect the higher ranked team to progress through to the next round here but statistically when both teams are ranked in the top 10, the lower ranked team has progressed on 60% of occasions. So this is rather conflicting which puts picking a winner off the cards. We do like the probability of Portugal scoring as they are averaging 2.75 goals a game over the last decade and have scored 1st in 75% of these games, this is supported by the fact that Germany have conceded 1st in 62% of simular encounters. We feel laying the draw and trading out after a goal is the only real option here. A side bet on over 2.5 goals might pay off so we will look at this in the 1st half. Usual trade out if no goal comes before HT.

Preview:
When Croatia have played teams outside the the top 10 in recent years they have only lost once in 23 games, hell of a record I'm sure you'll agree. When scoring they have been practically invincible, avoiding defeat in 100% of games in the last few years, winning 83% of these fixtures. So are Croatia going to score? We are pretty confident they will as Turkey have only kept a clean (at major tournaments) in 7% of games against top 20 teams. We aren't writing Turkey off here, even though their record against teams of Croatia's ability is quite poor (12% win rate) as their recent match against the Czechs was a perfect example of what they can do if focused. Turkey have a poor habit of conceding 1st having done so in 80% of their matches so far in this competition but if they get on the score sheet the most likely result here is a draw. We feel that Croatia are definately the better team here and have the ability to win or at least draw this match so will be backing Croatia and trading out after they take the lead.

If they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's we will look to back them again and trade out after they equalize or if later in the match we will look to lay Turkey. Obviously don't do this if Croatia are struggling.

We also like the probability of a goal in the 1st half, especially with Turkey's record of conceding early so will get on over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet. If no goal comes before HT trade out with the loss on over as usual. Back in if you feel 3 are coming in the 2nd half.

Preview:
Historically when a team has won 3 out of 3 in the group stages like Holland, 87% of these teams have won their 1st knock out match. A key feature of Holland's recent wins is their scoring record which has been superb. Against teams of a similar ranking to Russia the Dutch have scored in 88% of games outside the Netherlands. It looks almost certain Holland will score here as Russia have conceded in the last 10 matches against similar ranked opponents and considering the amazing display of counterattacked football from the Dutch in the 1st two matches, and the 16 goals they have scored in 6 games we are sure you'll agree. The last time these two met was back in February which ended in a 4-1 win to Holland. Whilst we expect them to win again here, Guus Hiddink has a strong understand of Van Basten style of play so we are expecting it to be closer than expected.

For us we will be backing Holland to win here and trading out after they take the lead (currently available at 1.8) . As usual if they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's consider backing them again and trading out after they equalize. After this consider laying Russia. Obviously if Holland don't look like pulling it back leave this alone.

We like the probability of a 1st half goal as Holland have scored a goal inside 45 min's in 7 of the last 8. So we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet. If we don't see one before HT trade out for no loss on under by laying over 2.5 as usual. Back in in the 2nd half if your concerned 3 are on the way.

As we forgot to mention it yesterday causing us to lose £70, consider some cover on the 0-0 if your concerned inplay. Personally its worth waiting until HT for this decision because Russia have also seen a 1st half goal in their last 6 matches.

Preview:
Including the 3 wins in group stage Spain have now won 7 straight fixtures in 2008, including pre-tournament wins over France and Italy themselves. They had the easier route to qualification but still no easy task. Historically Spain choke around this point progressing to the next stage on only 17% of occasions. They also have the curse of June 22nd. Don't laugh! Spain have exited three major tournaments on penalties on this exact date in recent history. We are hoping they can break the trend but as they have lost 100% of their matches against teams with a higher ranked at this stage we won't hold our breath. Their is a stat to support them winning as 87% of teams who have a 100% record through the group stage avoid defeat in the 1st knockout match, but as we have seen two favorites go out in the last few days we won't put much faith in this. Although Spain have looked the better team in the group stages, Italy have a much stronger record at this point in competitions only losing 9% since the 82 World Cup. Against top 10 teams they have a high draw rate which is what most people are expecting here. These matches have been low scoring in general with 73% finishing under 2.5 goals. We haven't seen a 1st half goal in their last 3 H2H meetings but 95% have seen a goal before the final whistle.

For us are only really option is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. If we don't see one before the back odds reach 1.8 trade out as usual. It makes sense to chase a better price by staggering your stake for better value. We are also going to take a punt on a 1st half goal by backing over 2.5 goals as a side bet. We should be safe if we don't see one to trade out with no loss on under 2.5 at HT as usual.

Those who are concerned inplay that we aren't going to see a goal please consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability.

Preview:
Germany simply have to score early in this match or Turkey are likely to gain more and more confidence as the game progresses, having seen what they have done so far in this tournament, especially in the later stages. Any other situation than an early lead won't be considered by the Germans. For Turkey they go into this match as underdogs, a lot to do with this is that they only have 12 fully fit outfield players including two keepers. With 5 key players missing from the team they are likely to lack the ability and firepower to hold off the German offence, despite having the mental ability to do so. At this stage of the competition in general the higher ranked team has progressed on 73% of occasions. With Turkey's issues we see this match falling into this criteria. Statistically these semi's are pretty close with 71% needing extra time or penalties to decide the winner. There are also strong stats supporting the half time draw with 83% remaining goalless at the break. We feel this match will buck this trend due to Germany's low draw record 9% at this stage and Turkeys enforced team changes. We also feel Germany will score 1st as Turkey have conceded 1st 82% of their recent European matches.

For us we will be backing Germany and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind in the 1st 30 min's we will look to back them again, after this point we will wait for the odds to drift and lay Turkey, ideally we will want to see Germany looking like equalizing before doing this.

We like the probability of Germany taking an early lead so will get in on over 2.5 goals as a side bet. If we don't see one in the 1st half we will get out at HT by laying over 2.5 as usual for no loss on under 2.5. Back in if concerned 3 are coming in the 2nd half.

Out of caution we will cover the back stake by backing the 0-0 because of the stats, but we shouldn't need this.

Preview:
Russia were highly impressive in their recent defeat of the Netherlands, making them look very average in comparison. Against top 10 teams they still have a poor record outside Russia conceded in 100% of these encounters, winning just 8%. We have all seen them gain in confidence as they have moved through this competition and have definitely improved since losing in their opening match against Spain 4-1. H2H Russia have failed to beat Spain on the last 7 occasions with the last win coming in 1972 when they were still the Soviet Union. Whether they can buck this trend we will have to see but if both teams field similar teams as the last meeting its definitely going to be interesting. When teams of a similar ranking to Russia have made it to this stage of the competition they have won on 17% of occasions. The most prominent result has been the draw with 54% finishing in a stalemate after 90 min's. Low goals is also strongly supported when the ranking difference is similar, with 90% finishing under 2.5 goals. Spain's 4-1 win was the 1st time the scorline between these two had reached over 2 goal in over 30 years so their H2H history also supports a low scoring match. Spain's win over Italy has improved their win stats in knockout stages to 38% but again the draw is strongly supported. So all things considered we feel this is likely to end in a draw but because of Russia's record of conceding against top 10 ten teams, we feel a score draw is on the cards.

We will be backing the draw and trading out once the odds have drifted, ideally around HT. If a goal comes and the other team look like they can pull it back we will wait for an equalizer. Or if Russia score 1st and the odds shorten instead of drifting we will still get out.

Because we are backing the draw we will also be backing over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet during the 1st half trading out after a goal. Out at HT for no loss on under as usual if no goal comes. Back in if 2 come and a 3rd looks likely.

Preview:
Historically Bodo always lose to Rosenborg who are definately their bogey team. Rosenborg have won 91% of the meetings in the last 15 years. The other 9% of games finished in score draws. A key feature of these games is goals, not because they have been particularly high scoring but the lack of 0-0 draws, basically they haven't had any. We aren't expecting to see a goalless stalemate tonight either as Bodo have a 100% scoring record at home and Rosenborg have conceded in 100% of their away games so far this season. It might be a little tighter than normal as Bodo are unbeaten at home this season and have looked very sharpe but we definately won't be surprised if Rosenborg take the lead.

We are going to be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Rosenborg who are shorter in price. If you want to stagger your stake for lower average odds please do.

We are expecting a goal around HT which has frequently happened between these two so will have a side bet on over 2.5 goals inplay. Usual trade out if no goals come before HT. There isn't much money on the market so keep your stake small on this bet.

We don't feel you will need any cover on the 0-0 for obvious reasons but if you want the security its available at 15.

Preview:
Stabaek sit in 1st place and are the inform team so far this season in the Tippeligaen. Unbeaten with a 100% win record at home. They have been solid at the back conceding just 4 goals in 10 games and possess a superb goal difference of +14 which might not sound a lot but compared to 2nd place Fredrikstad who are just +5 it highlights their dominance so far. Their opponents in this match are a very defensive team and despite the worst scoring record in the league they have only conceded 5 goals in the last 10 games. Whether they can keep Stabaek from scoring we have our doubts as they are averaging 2.5 goals a game at home. The last time these met Tromso got battered 5-0 back in October. Stabaek seem to have improved since then so it could be another high scoring game (the last 6 meetings finished over 2.5 goals) but Tromso have been very tight at the back this season so we are a little cautious about the goals market here as a main bet. We prefer the straight win so will be backing Stabaek and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will look to back them again once we have confidence they can equalize. Trading out after they draw level.

We will also consider the over 2.5 goals market as a side bet inplay. Trading out at HT with the usual trade out plan.

There hasn't been any goalless matches between these two in 15 years so you shouldn't need any cover on the 0-0 but its there if you need it inplay.

Preview:
This is Spain's 1st final in 24 years and over 40 year since they have taken home the silverware. They have looked the more convincing of the two sides throughout the tournament remaining unbeaten in the process. Their Semi Final win over Russia was the most convincing win any of us can remember in the knock out stages and a triumph for attacking football. Germany have been less convincing but incredibly sharpe in front of goal. Against Portugal they were very impressive, and as Spain play a similar style we are hoping for an end to end game, especially in the 2nd half. In recent years Germany haven't had the best time in major competition finals only winning 1 of the last 6 in full time. They have also rarely keep a clean sheet, so we shouldn't see a goalless match. H2H is slightly in favor of Germany but its not one sided. Spain have the most recent bragging rights with their 3-1 win back in 2003. Meetings between these two have produced a 1st half goal on 78% of occasions which does conflict with the majority of recent finals finishing low scoring and level at the break. We are pretty confident we will see a few goals here but probably a little later in the game so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. We will stagger our lay stake for shorter odds. We are also going to have a small side trade (£25) on the goals market in play but wont trade out of this at HT if no goals come.