July 2008
trading advice given
Profit for Month = £625
Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
|
|
|
-£93 |
02/07/08 |
|
3 - 1 |
£52 |
05/07/08 |
Kalmar FF v Halmstads |
1 - 1 |
£19 |
05/07/08 |
Brann V Bodo/Glimt |
4 - 1 |
n/a |
06/07/08 |
|
2 - 2 |
£15 |
06/07/08 |
St Patricks v Finn Harps |
5 - 1 |
£42 |
07/07/08 |
Hammarby v Norrkoping |
4 - 3 |
£41 |
08/07/08 |
|
0 - 1 |
-£125 |
12/07/08 |
Tranmere V Liverpool |
0 - 1 |
£16 |
12/07/08 |
|
2 - 2 |
£24 |
13/07/08 |
|
4 - 1 |
£67 |
13/07/08 |
|
1 - 3 |
£42 |
14/07/08 |
Lyn V Brann |
1 - 1 |
£3 |
15/07/08 |
|
2 - 1 |
£24 |
16/07/08 |
|
1 - 2 |
£61 |
18/07/08 |
SV Ried v SV Kapfenberg |
2 - 1 |
£57 |
19/07/08 |
Kaizer Chiefs v Man Utd |
1 - 1 |
£26 |
19/07/08 |
IFK Goteborg V Gefle |
3 - 0 |
£49 |
20/07/08 |
Tromso V Ham-Kam |
2 - 1 |
£56 |
20/07/08 |
|
1 - 2 |
-£10 |
21/07/08 |
|
3 - 2 |
£30 |
22/07/08 |
Celtic V Middlesbrough |
1 - 1 |
£18 |
23/07/08 |
Viking V Rosenborg |
0 - 1 |
£24 |
25/07/08 |
Shamrock Rovers V Sligo Rovers |
1 - 0 |
£38 |
26/07/08 |
Gefle V IFK Goteborg |
0 - 1 |
£24 |
26/07/08 |
|
1 - 0 |
£33 |
27/07/08 |
|
1 - 2 |
£32 |
27/07/08 |
|
2 - 1 |
£14 |
28/07/08 |
|
1 - 1 |
£21 |
29/07/08 |
|
1 - 0 |
£10 |
30/07/08 |
|
0 - 1 |
£5 |
go
back to results page
Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 01/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan (Sweden) |
| Teams: - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Unbeaten at home Goteborg have won their last 7 home games. This season they have been very impressive, full of confidence, scoring an average of 2.8 goals a game, with the majority coming inside 30 min's. Trelleborg haven't been so impressive looking a little lost in their last few games. On the road they are yet to win losing their last 3 and have issues defensively, failing to keep a clean sheet this season. These teams haven't met much in the past but Goteborg have a 100% record over Trelleborg when playing at home, with the last matchup finishing 2-0 back in October. For us we will be backing Goteborg and trading out after they take the lead if they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again once we have confidence. As Goteborg have a habit of scoring in the 1st half we will also be backing over 2.5 goals inplay, trading out after a goal. If no goals come before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. If 2 come in the 2nd half and your concerned get back in.
If your concerned no goals are coming, not likely but could happen, consider a little cover on the 0-0 inplay.
|
Our Trading Result:
We backed IFK Goteborg at 1.46 and backed over 2.5 goals inplay at 2.8. Goteborg started strong with the majority of play. They went behind 29 min's in against the run of play for us to trade out at 1.67 on the goals bet. After HT Goteborg started well so we put another £25 on them at 3.6 to give us higher average odds so we could trade out after they equalize. Regrettably Trelleborg scored again on the counter attack for us to end with a losing trade. Lots of members cut their losses after the 1st goal for about a £10 loss, but we followed our plan so ended in a larger loss. Our selection process for this match and the Stabaek game last week has delivered 94% strike rate over the last 5 years, so we have been seriously unlucky with 2 losers in a week.
|
Profit made on this trade = -£93
|
| Date: 02/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen (Norway) |
| Teams: - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Aalesund have major issues keeping clean sheets, especially on the road. They have conceded a massive 31 goals in 10 games losing all of them. Against Rosenborg who have a decent scoring record averaging 2.7 goals a match at home (over the last 10 matches) they are very unlikely to prevent them from scoring, and considering 9 of their last 10 finished over 2.5 goals Rosenborg might find themselves on the score sheet a few times. Aalesund haven't beaten Rosenborg at home as far as we can remember but there has been a few score draws in recent years. This was when they had a better vain of form so we feel a draw is the best they can hope for here. There has been a few shock results in the last week or two in the Scandinavian leagues so we will stay away from backing Rosenborg as a main bet and focus on the goals market which has about an 80% of delivering so fingers crossed.
So we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. We will follow our usual trade out plan at HT if we don't see any goals but if 2 come in the 2nd half and a 3rd looks likely we will look to get back in. We will also consider a side trade on Rosenborg in play
|
Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odd of 1.7. The 1st goal came from Diego Silva to put Aalesund ahead after 38 min's for us to trade out at 1.38 with £110 for £30 if the game finished over. About 2 min's into the 2nd half Aalesund were reduced to 10 men which gave us confidence to back Rosenborg as they were now on a mission to equalize. We backed them at 2.32 and advised those who asked about to to do so. They got the equalizer just under 10 min's later for us to trade out at 1.71 with £60 for a further £22 if they went on to win. Roseborg easily scored two further goals for those who waited.
|
Profit made on this trade = £52
|
| Date: 05/07/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: Kalmar FF v Halmstads - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Kalmar are sitting top of the Allsvenskan with a 100% win record at home so far this season. A lot to do with this is there ability to score, averaging 2.7 goals a game over the last 10 matches. When their opponents have scored, they only failed to win once but they pulled this back to a 2-2 draw managing to win 9 of the last 10. Halmstads are sitting mid-table and haven't been too inspiring this season, they haven't beaten any of the top 5 teams , losing all these encounters. On the road they have conceded in 90% of games this season which is good news for us as Kalmar have a 100% scoring record, so we should see some goals here. H2H Kalmar have won 5 of the last 6 and if you look back further you will see some key tends, goals being one (they have never had a goalless match between them) and lack of draws (there hasn't been any). In general Kalmar start strong and have been on the score sheet before 30 min's in most their games so we should be able to profit from a goals trade.
Unfortunately the over 2.5 goals market hasn't much liquidity so we will use this as a side bet but we do have enough confidence that Kalmar can get at least a draw here so will be backing them and trading out after they take the lead. (some of you don't like backing teams so laying the draw could be an option as it has paid out on 100% of the H2H meetings, stagger your stake for value). If Kalmar go behind inside the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again to get higher average odds, trading out after they equalize. Laying 0-1 (if Kalmar go behind) is also a consideration.
|
Our Trading Result:
We backed Kalmar at 1.67 when picking the trade and backed over 2.5 goals inplay at 2.38 with £50 as a side trade. Despite some decent chances and the fact it should have been 3-1 at HT it went into the break goalless so we traded out of the goal bet at 3.85 for no loss on under as usual. Both teams had looked like scoring in the 2nd half with Magnus Arvidsson putting Halmstads ahead after 70 min's. Lots of members had got in on the draw around HT because of the stats supporting someone scoring so would have been able to trade out for a profit as the price drifted. We stuck to the preview and layed 0-1 at 1.51 with £125 and advised those who asked to do it also as we expected Kalmar to maintain their 100% scoring record. So overall £19 profit.
|
Profit made on this trade = £19
|
| Date: 05/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: Brann V Bodo/Glimt - SCORE: 4 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Only 2 points separate these two with Bodo sitting in 4th and Brann in 6th. Brann are strong favorites here which isn't what we were expecting to see as Bodo are sitting above them in the league. Admittedly Brann have won 3 of their 5 home games this season and Bodo have only won 1 of their last 6 on the road but on paper we give them a similar chance of winning here. You only have to look at their H2H history to see. Brann have won 6, draw 1 and Bodo have won 5. In fact 5 of the last 7 have gone to Bodo. The only thing we feel is worth considering here is the goals market, their isn't much liquidity so smallish stakes maybe required but the over 2.5 goals market should deliver us a profit as Brann have seen a 1st half goal in most their matches and the H2H results support this on 80% of occasions.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal inplay. If we don't see one in the 1st half we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. Back in if concerned a 3rd is on its way.
|
Our Trading Result:
Whilst we would love to say we got in on this one before the 1st goal came but it was too early for us. The majority of feedback highlighted that most got in later in the 2nd half once the odds had drifted again so would have made a nice profit after the 2nd goal just before HT. We ended up laying Brann at 1.2 with a small stake and backed over 2.5 with £100 at 1.75 once the odds had drifted which gave us reasonable profit overall after the 2nd goal but this isn't following the preview so no official profit, but would have been a positive trade for who ever got in.
|
Profit made on this trade = £0
|
| Date: 06/07/08 |
| Time: 16.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
AKI were very impressive mid-week with a superb 4-1 win on their travels. They come into this match having won 5 consecutive games and unbeaten at home this season. A key feature of their home games is the ability to keep a clean sheet (83%). With the exception of the recent 4-1 win they are not big scorers in general averaging a goal a game, doing just enough for the points. We do feel this game is likely to deliver more than normal as GAIS are pretty poor defensively on the road. Whether GAIS will get on the score sheet we have our doubts as they have only scored twice this season on their travels, conceding in all matches against similar ranked teams and yet to win.
AIK are likely to win this but as the draw price isn't too high we prefer to lay the draw and trading out after a goal. We will stagger our stake for lower odds. We will also be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal inplay. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. Back in if 2 come and a 3rd looks likely.
Usual trade out on the draw if we don't see a goal before the odds reach 1.8.
The 0-0 correct score is there if your concerned inplay no goal is coming.
|
Our Trading Result:
Not the typical start this one! The market didn't go inplay for quite a while. We looked on Betdaq and they didn't have it so ended up playing Blackjack for 25 min's until an inplay member contacted us and told us it was back inplay. We got in on the draw bet at 3.25 and backed overs with £50 at 3.9 with only £10 accepted before a goal came. Typically with these Scandinavian game the non favorite scored 1st. This enabled us to trade out on the goals bet at 2.04 with £17 and after about 10 min's we got 3.3 matched on the draw bet with £100. This gave us £15 overall. Feedback from members most waited until AIK took the lead before trading out on the draw for a decent profit.
|
Profit made on this trade = £15
|
| Date: 06/07/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Irish Premier |
| Teams: St Patricks v Finn Harps: 5 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
League leaders St Patrick's will be confident after the 3-0 away win against Derry City last week ending a three game winless run. Against poor away teams they have a decent win rate, 80% so far this season. Scoring has been a little hit and miss but against a team that is yet to keep a clean sheet we are very likely to see St Patrick on the scoresheet. Finn Harps have only picked up 1 win on their travels this season and this was against 2nd from bottom Cobh Ramblers which to be honest is no difficult task. Against top half teams they have lost all away matches this season and with their key central defender Marc Mukendi suspended we are likely to see a repeat of the 3-0 loss they suffered against St Patrick in April this year.
We will be backing St Patrick and trading out after they take the lead. If they going behind in the 1st 30mins we will consider backing them again to get higher average so we can trade out after they equalise. later in the game we will consider Laying Finn.
We also like over 2.5 goals here so will be backing it and trading out after a goal.
|
Our Trading Result:
We backed St Patrick at 1.44 and unfortunately missed the goals bet as the early goal caught us out yet again. Finn Harps opened the scoring after 6 min's too everyone's suprise but it did enable us to back St Patrick again for a value price of 2.22. We were 100% positive they would pull this back and were rewarded by an equalizer about 15 min's later. St Patrick were dominating play from this point so lots of members hung in their for a big profit. We stuck to the preview and traded out after they equalized at 1.5 for £42 profit on the win.
|
Profit made on this trade = £42
|
| Date: 07/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan (Sweden) |
| Teams: Hammarby v Norrkoping: 4 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Hammarby are undefeated at home this season having held off three off the the top 4. Against bottom 6 teams they have a 70% win record over the last 3 seasons. Norrkoping find themselves sitting at the bottom of the league with only 1 win from their 12 games. This came against fellow strugglers Ljungskile in their last match but should give them some confidence coming into this match. H2H Hammarby are undefeated in the last 5 meetings winning 4 of the last 5. We can't see Norrkoping taking anything more than a draw from this match as they seriously have issues keeping a cleans sheet against top half teams.
We will be backing Hammarby trading out after they take the lead. Backing again if they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's. later in the game we would be looking to lay Norrkoping if they are ahead.
A side trade on over 2.5 goals in the 1st half is also worth consideration. Trading out at HT for no loss on under as usual. Back in if 2 come and a 3rd looks likely.
|
Our Trading Result:
We backed Hammarby at 1.57 and back over 2.5 goals with half the stake we were looking to get on at 2.0. It didn't take long for Hammarby to take the lead enabling us to trade out fo both bets. We got out at 1.25 on the back bet with £110 for £29 on the win and 1.4 on the goals bet for a further £12 so overall £41. Great comeback from Norrkoping in the second half but still a winner.
|
Profit made on this trade = £41
|
| Date: 08/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan (Sweden) |
| Teams: : 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
This season Elfsborg have been superb, especially at home winning 5 of their 6 games and haven't conceded a single goal. Their only draw came against the much improved Hammarby side which is a much tougher test than their opponents here. Against teams in the bottom 3 Elfsborg have a 80% win rate over the last few season which is what we are expecting to happen here. Gefle have looked disorganized so far this season without a win on the road losing 4 of the 6 games played. Historically they have always got on the score sheet when playing Elfsborg but with Elfsborg's new found ability to keep clean sheets this trend might end here. From what we have seen of Elfsborg this season we find it hard to see Gefle taking more than a draw here especially with the poor display we have seen in their last few games. For us its a Elfsborg win so will be backing them and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will look to back them again for higher average odds so we can trade out when they equalize. Obviously don't do this is they are playing poorly.
Elfsborg defensive record might keep the score low but we do feel they will get on the score sheet in the 1st half as they have done against similar teams. So we will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one in the 1st half we will look to trade out for no loss on under 2.5 at HT. If 2 come and your concerned get back in.
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Our Trading Result:
We are starting to think these Scandinavian teams have something against us! We backed Elfsborg at 1.46 and over 2.5 goals as a side trade at 3.0. No goals before HT so we traded out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual on the goals bet. Elfsborg were by far the dominant side with numerous chances but failed to put one in the back of the net. Gelfe managed to take the lead through their only decent chance after 67 min's. Elfsborg responded as expected by going behind so we backed them again at 9.8 with £25 as the odds had drifted quite a bit. We also backed under 2.5 at 1.3 (not in the preview but advised those who contacted us to do so. This minimized the loss to £70) basically because they failed to pull it back we were left with a £125 loss excluding the under 2.5 bet. We should get this back at the weekend as there are some decent trades available.
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Profit made on this trade = -£125
|
| Date: 12/07/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Friendly |
| Teams: Tranmere v Liverpool : 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Looking at the two big 4 matches on offer we feel this is the most likely to give us a result. Liverpool will make a short trip to neighbours Tranmere Rovers in a friendly match at Prenton Park. The last time these two met was in 2001 where Liverpool knocked the league one side out in the FA Cup Qtr finals 4-2. Historically 75% of H2H games have seen over 4 goals which might be a challenge here as the Reds have Torres, Reina, Alonso, and also Holland striker Dirk Kuyt all out. We are looking forward to seeing some of the new signing getting a run out but are a little concerned this match won't be all one sided so will leave backing Liverpool alone. We still feel we will see goals here but are expecting Tranmere to get on the score sheet adding to the total.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay here and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out as usual with the loss on under. If we see two in the 2nd half and are concerned a 3rd is on its way we will consider getting back in.
If Tranmere score 1st and Liverpool look like equalising we will consider a small bet on the next goal market.
|
Our Trading Result:
Not the goal feast we were hoping for but still a profitably trade!
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.6. We had to wait until a few min's before the break for Benayoun to open the scoring but this enabled us to trade out at 2.18 with £117 with the profit weighted towards over. No further goals so only the smaller profit of £16.
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Profit made on this trade = £16
|
| Date: 12/07/08 |
| Time: 18.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: T-Mobile Bundesliga (Austria) |
| Teams: : 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
The season has only just kick off for these two so not much form to consider. Last season Rapid finished top with Salzburg in 2nd so expected a fairly even match. Salzburg had the better start this season with a win compared to Rapid's 3-1 unexpected loss to Sturm Graz. Historically Rapid Wien are a strong home team. They won 9 of their last 10, scoring 27 goals in these games. At home they very rarely fail to score even against teams of a similar ability. The last time these two met (Mar 08) Salzburg got battered 7-0 so they should be out for revenge here. If Salzburg's opening game is anything to go by ( 6-0 win) we should be in for an entertaining match. 6 of the last 7 games have all delivered over 2.5 goals so we are definately expecting a few here. With how close the odds are we should be able to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal whoever scores so this is our preferred option. We also like the side trade on over 2.5 in the 1st half as we have a strong feeling Salzburg will be on the score sheet inside the 1st 45mins.
So to confirm, we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. We will also be backing over 2.5 goals in the 1st half and trading out after a goal. Usual trade out if no goal comes in the 1st half for the goals trade. Out at 1.8 on the draw if we don't see a goal.
Those who are concerned inplay the 0-0 correct score is there for your consideration if the match is tight.
|
Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.45. Unfortunately we got caught out on the goals bet as the 1st goal came about 2 min's before we were going to get in. This still enabled us to profit though trading out at 4.6 with £75 slitting th profit evenly across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £24
|
| Date: 13/07/08 |
| Time: 11.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: T-Mobile Bundesliga (Austria) |
| Teams: : 4 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The Antlers are now 10 home games without a loss. They have been averaging 2 goals a game in these matches with an average scoreline of 2.6. Obviously from this you can see they have a pretty good record at keeping clean sheets which has in effect been a important fact in them winning. FC Tokyo are no easy opponent and have scored against the Antlers in their last 5 meetings, which is what we expect to happen again here. With both teams scoring likely we should see the scoreline push past over 2.5 as it has done in their last 4 meetings. The Antlers have looked the sharper of the two in recent encounters and should avoid defeat.
For us we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from the Antlers. It makes sense to stagger your lay stake for shorter odds or wait a while for the odds to drift just incase FC Tokyo open the scoring. 15 min's or so, depending on how open it is.
We like the probability of a 1st half goal so will backing this inplay during the 1st half as a side trade. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual, back in if 2 come and we are concerned a 3rd is on its way.
For those who like the safety the 0-0 is available at 20 !!! so £10 should cover you if the match remains goalless and you need to trade out at 1.8 on the draw as usual.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds 3.5 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.8 with £50. No goals before HT but fairly obvious we were going to see some. We still traded out for no loss on under as usual at 4.2. FC Tokyo opened the scoring after 58 min's. The odds shortened a little so we ended up waiting for the odds to drift for a couple of min's but then the Antlers equalized as expected catching us out.
After this point they were on a mission so we advised everyone who contacted us to hold out for another goal from them and get back in on the goals market moving the loss onto under. We got back in on the goals market at average odds of 1.75 with £100 which was probably the best call we have made in the last few months as they took the lead after 72 min's for us to trade out on the draw bet at 8.2 with £39 and win £19 on the goals bet. They followed this up with 2 more goals!
Ammended we for got to mention we put £10 on the 0-0 for the safety so £67 overall
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Profit made on this trade = £67
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| Date: 13/07/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: Norrkoping V Kalmar : 1 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
This should be straight forward. Norrkoping are sitting at the bottom of the league with one 1 win from their 13 games (against 2nd to bottom Ljungskile) we haven't really seen any signs that give us confidence they can end their home winless run against Kalmar. They have managed to pull off a few draws at home but these were again against teams outside the top half. Kalmar are sitting in pole position undefeated at home but have slipped up on the road in two games so far this season. Admittedly these were against strong home teams so we are expecting Kalmar to win here. H2H Norrkoping have yet to defeat Kalmar and with both teams form this should continue.
We will be backing Kalmar and trading out after they take the lead if they go behind we will look to back them again if this happens inside the 1st 30 min's. After this point we will look to lay Norrkoping. We will also consider laying 1-0 if Norrkoping take the lead early on.
This is another game that could have a big score so we will be backing over 2.5 goals in the 1st half and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5. Again if we see 2 in the 2nd half and a 3rd looks likely we will get back in on over 2.5.
If the game is tight (not likely) consider a little cover on the 0-0 if your concerned.
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Our Trading Result:
This one was much more straight forward! We backed Kalmar at 1.75. Unfortunately they took the lead before we got in on the goals market but it enabled us to trade out at 1.28 with £110 for £42 on the win. A comfortable win for the league leaders as expected.
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Profit made on this trade = £42
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| Date: 14/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: Lyn V Brann : 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Only one point separates these two so its very unlikely to be one sided. SK Brann haven't made the best of starts to the season and their away record isn't what we were expecting from them pre-season (only 1 win from the last 6). Brann definately have the better squad but we are yet to see it on their travels. Lyn have looked the better team so far with only one slip up at home against league leaders Stabaek. In the last 7 meetings between these two the home side has walked away with 3 points. On form they are a little closer than normal so we might not see a repeat of the 6-0 defeat Brann suffered the last time these two met at Lyn's home ground but we should see a few goals.
We got asked for a nice easy trade yesterday so this is it. We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. Whoever scores the odds will move in our favour. It does make sense to chase the price down for better value.
We also like the probability of an early goal probably from Lyn as Brann have looked a little shaky at the back, so we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal as a side bet. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5. Back in if 2 come early in the second half and a 3rd looks likely.
The 0-0 is their for your consideration if the game is tight although you shouldn't need it.
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Our Trading Result:
Well we were right about Lyn scoring 1st! Its a shame the goal came so early. We were expecting a tight 1st 15 min's but a goal after 2 min's caught most of us out (not Carl Marshall who joined yesterday and had put £100 on both the lay bet and the goals bet, earning his annual subs back in one hit! Well done mate). We only managed to get £25 on the lay bet as we were looking to stagger our stake. After Lyn scored we traded out with just over £21 at 4.4 We also missed the goals market.
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Profit made on this trade = £3
|
| Date: 15/07/08 |
| Time: 18.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: : 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Undefeated at home Helsingborg take on the very impressive 3rd place AIK. Most trends support a scoredraw here which is what most are expecting to see. H2H history is in Helsingborg's favour but the last match went to AIK 2-3 with 2 or more goals scored in 90% of these games. This is a very difficult call but we should see a few goals. As a few members have asked us to name a winner in this game we would go for Helsingborg as they have scored an average of over 2 goals a game in their last 10 home games compared to AIK's away goal average of 1.3. We won't be backing them though we prefer to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. It shouldn't matter who scores 1st as the odds should move in our favour.
We also will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side bet in the 1st half. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under as usual, back in if 2 come early in the 2nd half and concerned a 3rd is coming.
You shouldn't need any cover on the 0-0 but its there for your consideration if the game is tight in play.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.1 with only £25 as the goal yet again came early. AIK opened the scored 12 min's in for us to trade out of both bets. We got out at 3.95 on the draw with £87 and 1.47 with £30 on the goals bet. £24 overall and a Helsingborg win as quoted above.
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Profit made on this trade = £24
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| Date: 16/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: Halmstads v Elfsborg : 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Another game where the teams are fairly evenly matched so we should be able to profit whoever scores 1st. Elfsborg have been the more impressive of the two this season, especially defensively (only conceded 4 goals in 13 games). When these two have met before there has always been goals but in recent years the draw features prominently. Halmstads have the better H2H history but whether they can take anything more than a draw here we have our doubts as Elfsborg have been very tight at the back in 2008. Under 2.5 goals is well support with all of Elfsborg home games finishing under 2.5 and 9 of the last 10.
For us we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. We should see one as highlighted above these two have had a goal in 100% of their meetings. We will also be backing over 2.5 goals as a side bet in play as we should be able to get a good price and if we don't see a 1st half goal should be safe to trade out for no loss on under at HT as this game is likely to be low scoring. Usual trade plan if two goals come early in the 2nd half.
The 0-0 if there for your consideration in play if your concerned no goals are on the way although you shouldn't need it. Usual trade out point of 1.8 on the draw if it remains goalless.
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Our Trading Result:
Great trade this one! We layed the draw at 3.3 and backed over 2.5 goals as a side trade at 3.15. Elfsborg delivered a goal at the perfect time for us to trade out of both bets. We got out at 4.3 with £73 on the draw and 2.0 with £70 on the goals bet for £61 overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £61
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| Date: 18/07/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: T-Mobile Bundesliga |
| Teams: SV Ried v SV Kapfenberg : 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The Austrian season has only just kicked off but early signs from these two are a few issues at the back, with Kapfenberg continuing where they left off last season, now conceding and scoring in 8 straight away games. SV Reid have looked the sharper team up front which was reflected in their home win over Altach. We are expecting Kapfenberg to put up more of a fight in this meeting, with both teams likely to get on the score sheet. Historically these two play and end to end game which has been reflected in the score line (21 goals in the last 5 H2H meetings). We aren't expecting a goal extravaganza but 2-3 looks likely. We wouldn't want to pick a winner here despite SV Ried winning the last 3 at home as its a little too early into the season so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, chasing a slightly better price by staggering your stake makes sense early on.
We also like the chance of an early goal so will be backing over 2.5 goals in play and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. Back in if 2 come and a 3rd looks likely (we have seen 3 a few times from these 2 in the 2nd half so be on your toes with this one).
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Our Trading Result:
Another decent prediction! We layed the draw at average odds of 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals with £42 of the £50 we were looking to get on (the 1st goal came a little too soon). SV Reid scored about 14 min's in for us to trade out on both bets. We got out on the draw bet at 4.7 with £70 and 1.5 on the goals bet with £50 for £57 profit overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £57
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| Date: 19/07/08 |
| Time: 14.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Friendly |
| Teams: Kaizer Chiefs v Man Utd : 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Kaizer Chiefs are one of the more established South African sides, last season they weren't too impressive and early signs this year is more of the same. Against a stronger than expected Utd tour side they will have great difficulty controlling play, their central midfielder is very small and lacks presence and defensively they are look weak. We can't really find anything in the South African sides favour other than the weather. Obviously no Ronaldo but with Tevez, Rooney and a strong squad they should breeze this one.
We will be backing Utd and trading out after they take the lead (currently available at 1.47). If they go behind we should see them up their game and equalise so we will look to back them again if its early in the game for higher average odds. If for some bazaar reason it remains goalless and the Chiefs take the lead in the 2nd half we will look to lay them.
Laying 1-0 is also a consideration if the Chiefs take the lead inside 30 min's.
For obvious reason we like the look of over 2.5 goals so will be backing this inplay and trading out after a goal. With this one we would be cautious about trading out for no loss at HT, so if you are doing this it makes sense to get back if 2 come in the 2nd half.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Utd at 1.4 as we saw the odds shortening from when we picked the trade. We also backed over 2.5 goals at 2.4 inplay. The Chiefs took the lead in the 37th min through a penalty for us to trade out on the goals bet at 1.75 with £67 for £17 profit. We then were inundated by emails as Utd had gone behind. We advised members to stick to the preview. Because the goal came just before HT some layed the Chiefs and other backed Utd again as we did. We got 2.8 matched with another £50 just before HT. Utd pulled it back inside 15 min's into the 2nd half for us to trade out at 1.8 with £160, weighting the profit towards a Utd win. As the game finished in a draw we finished with £26.
Laying 1-0 also paid of for those who did it, we didn't as it was past 30 mins in.
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Profit made on this trade = £26
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| Date: 19/07/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: IFK Goteborg V Gefle : 3 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
IFK are one of the better home teams in the league, averaging over 2 goals a game. Because of their ability to score at home they have maintained a decent record over the last 10 home games 7W-2D-1L. In general their opponents Gefle haven't been very inspiring especially on their travels. They do come into this match having beaten one of our favorite teams Elfsborg in a recent away game, but if you watched it as we did you will know that they didn't deserve the 3 points, and returned to form losing their next away game. This is the only away win they have managed to pick up this season so far. We will be very surprised if they can beat another top 6 team on their travels and with them probably needing to score more than one goal to win we find this unlikely when you consider IFK's scoring record. H2H IFK have won all recent encounters when playing at home and there has never been a goalless match or draw between them in this time. We do have a little concern about IFK's line up so prefer the goals market as the main bet. This will also enable us chase a better profit.
So to confirm we will be backing over 2.5 goals in play and trading out after a goal as we are expecting a goal in the 1st half . If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. If we see 2 goals in the 2nd half and a 3rd looks likely we will consider getting back in.
We will also be looking at backing IFK inplay and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will look to back them again if its early in the game, trading out after they equalise.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.38 with £84 of the £100 we were looking to get on and backed IFK with £25 of the £50 we were looking to get on. The game was easy to read so a little annoyed we got caught out here. Anyway IFK opened the scoring after 17 min's enabling us to trade out at 1.66 on the goals bet with £110 for £41 if the game finished over 2.5. We traded out of the back bet at 1.19 with £30 for another £8 on the win so £49 overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £49
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| Date: 20/07/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: Tromso V Ham-Kam : 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Tromso come into this match having won 4 of the last 5. The loss came against league leaders Fredrikstad which was to be honest a very even match. At home they have been a bit hit and miss but still have only lost 2 of the last 10, and against bottom 6 teams they haven't had any issues. We have been very impressed with their ability up front in their last 3 matches where they have scored 9 goals. Against one of the worst away teams in the league (conceding an average of 2.3 goals a game) we should see a few more from them. Ham-Kam have looked very disorganised so far this season and find themselves propping up the table in last place. We really can't see them keeping a clean sheet here and if they score we will be surprised as Tromso have look very tight at the back in their recent games.
For this match we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay as we think we will see a 1st half goal and also backing Tromso and trading out after they take the lead. Usual trade out at HT on the goals bet if we don't see a goal, back in if 2 come early in the 2nd half and a 3rd looks likely. If Tromso go behind we will look to back them again inside the 1st 30 min's, trading out after they equalise after this point we will look to lay Ham-Ham.
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Our Trading Result:
Typically with an early goal we got caught out on one of our bets. We managed to back Tromso at 1.51 with a full stake but only got £25 of the £100 we were looking to get on before Ham-Kam opened the scoring. After the goal we backed Tromso again with half a stake at 2.32. Then turned to the goals market to trade out but it went suspended again. This was the expected equaliser so we traded out of 1.14 with £30 on the goals bet and 1.55 with £170 on the back bet. So overall £56
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Profit made on this trade = £56
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| Date: 20/07/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: : 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
In the previous trade we highlighted how poor Ham-Kam have been away from home. Well Aalesund have a worst record, losing 10 in a row and 7 out of 7 so far this season. They have conceding an average of 2.7 goals a game in these matches. They obviously have a few issues, especially defensively. In this match up we do expect Brann to win as they have superior fire power (averaging over 2.5 goals a game at home) but Aalesund played very well against them back in April in the reverse fixture, winning 4-2. H2H Brann haven't lost to Aalesund at home as far as we can find but they are likely to concede here. 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two finished over 2.5 goals and when you consider Aalesund's defensive record on their travels the over 2.5 goals market looks very good.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one before HT we will follow our usual trade out plan.
We will also look to back Brann as a side trade, trading out after they take the lead or if they go behind, we will follow the usual plan.
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Our Trading Result:
The goals came at a decent time in this match so we managed to get all our stake on the goals bet at average odds of 1.8 and £50 on the side bet at 1.41. The 1st goal came from Aalesund after 27 min's for us to trade out of the goals bet at 1.36. We expected this match to follow a similar format to the previous match so when Brann went behind we backed them again with half a stake at 2.34. About 5 min's later Brann were two down. We didn't think it was beyond them to bring this back so stuck in there. Lots of members traded out around 6 after the 2nd goal so could have made a small profit depending on their staking. We had quite a few emails about laying Aalesund later in the match as this has worked previously to recover losses and had minimal risk when favorites need a goal and odds are short. We advised those to lay around 1.2. We got 1.19 matched for £50 so when Brann scored we traded out of this bet at 1.53 with £70. This gave us a loss of £47 on should Aalesund win. So as the score remained 1-2 we had a loss of £47 and a win of £37 on the goals bet so overall we lost £10.
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Profit made on this trade = £10
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| Date: 21/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: : 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Kalmar are sitting at the top of the league. Undefeated at home with a 100% scoring record and averaging 2.7 goals a game over the last 10 at home. They have already taken on and defeat a hand full of the top half teams at home this season and should add Malmo to this list. The H2H history between these two is fairly evenly split with Kalmar having the better of Malmo in recent years. Malmo haven't had any decent results against top 6 teams this season on their travels and have conceding in these meetings. Our preferred trade here is over 2.5 goals as Kalmar have kit the back of the net in the majority of games inside 30 min's. So we will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss if the game finishes under 2.5. If two goals come early in the 2nd half consider getting back.
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Our Trading Result:
Nice easy one this, obviously going to be goals so most got their stake on. We only got £80 of our £100 stake on so got caught out a little but the converted penalty that came in the 18th min enabled us to trade at 1.44 with £99 for £30 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £30
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| Date: 22/07/08 |
| Time: 21.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Friendly |
| Teams: : 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Celtic take on Middlesbrough in the Algarve Challenge Cup opener as they look to overcome a shock defeat in their last game against Fulham. To be honest we were expecting them to slip up in one of these pre-season matches. Against Middlesbrough this should be a tougher test but with another week of pre-season training under their belt we feel the Scottish Champions will win this one. Southgate's boys won't be an easy pushover though as they have shown their resilience as a tough unit to break down defensively. We are expecting a goal in the 1st half but not too early so will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, staggering our stake for shorter odds and backing over 2.5 goals inplay as a side trade. If we don't see a goal in the 1st half we will follow our usual trade out plan on the goals bet by trading out for no loss on under. Back in if two come and your concerned a 3rd is on its way.
The 0-0 correct score is there for your consideration inplay if the game is tight and your concerned its going to finish goalless.
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Our Trading Result:
The match started as expected giving us enough time to stagger our stake on the lay bet and goals bet. We got in at 3.35 on the draw and 3.01 average odds on the goals bet. There were a few decent chances and nearly a goal midway the the 1st half. Unfortunately we went into the break goalless so traded out at 5.44 on the goals bet for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. The 1st goal came about 30 seconds before we were going to trade out, very lucky. We traded at 4.3 with £77 for £18 on the draw. From feedback only a few members managed to trade out at 1.8, most of us were luckily waiting for bets to be accepted or about to place them. We advised those who did to lay Middlesbrough with both getting under 1.2 which would have paid out as Celtic grabbed the equaliser as expected.
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Profit made on this trade = £18
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| Date: 23/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: Viking V Rosenborg : 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Viking at home have won 7 of their last 10 and have a decent win rate over bottom half teams like Rosenborg, scoring in a large majority of these meetings. We are expecting them to win here but pretty positive they will concede. One thing we know about Rosenborg is they can't keep a clean sheet on the road. They have conceded in the last 10 straight games and against Viking 14 of the last 15. Saying this they should also score as they have looked pretty sharp upfront scoring in 9 of their last 10 on the road. We should be pretty safe to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal. Also we have seen a 1st half goal in 85% of their meetings so will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay. If we don't see one we will follow the usual plan of trading out at HT for no loss on under.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals as a side trade at 2.48. Rosenborg opened the scoring after 36 mins for us to trade out at 3.85 with £90 on the draw bet and 1.8 with £65 on the goals bet. We were expecting Rosenborg to concede but to our suprise they didn't, about time they kept a clean sheet! Because of the result we took the slightly smaller profit of £24
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Profit made on this trade = £24
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| Date: 25/07/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Irish Premier |
| Teams: Shamrock Rovers V Sligo Rovers : 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
We give this one a pretty good chance of a score draw as these two are difficult to separate on recent form. Shamrock Rovers despite only winning 2 of their last 10 at home are now unbeaten in their last five home matches in all competitions. One of these was a 2-1 win over Sligo in the FAI Cup. The other time these two met this season was on the road where Sligo got the better of them losing 2-3 in a very close fought match. Probably a true reflection of how Shamrock are improving was the 1-1 away result against league leaders St Patrick which is no easy achievement. Sligo's most recent away games ended in a draw and a win which shows they have the ability to perform well against bottom teams on the road. Against teams outside the bottom 6 they still have issues taking anything more than a draw so we feel Shamrock will avoid defeat here. To support this H2H Shamrock have avoid defeat since 1997 winning half of these matches.
For us we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Shamrock. We are expecting an open game with a decent chance of a 1st half goal so will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay. If we don't see a goal in the 1st half we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual, back in if we see two early in the 2nd half and concerned a 3rd is coming. Usual trade out point on the draw bet if we don't see a goal before the odds reach 1.8.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.2 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 3.3 inplay. We were surprised that Shamrock didn't open the scoring in the 1st half as they had the better of chances. We went into the break goalless so traded out on the goals bet for no loss if the game finished under 2.5 at 5.6. Shamrock opened the scoring after 69 min's for us to trade at 5.2 with £60.
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Profit made on this trade = £38
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| Date: 26/07/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: Gefle V IFK Goteborg : 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
These two only met a week ago in the reverse fixture where IFK won convincingly 3-0. Admittedly IFK have performed better at home this season but have shown great improvement up front in their last 3 matches so should overcome Gefle who have lost all their home games against top half sides. IFK should walk away with 3 points here and with no draws in their H2H meetings we should see a winner. We are split over the goals market here but its still worth a side trade as they have never had a goalless match in their H2H meetings with around 65% having a 1st half goal.
We are still a little cautious when it comes to these Scandinavian games so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal rather than backing IFK. It makes sense to stagger your lay stake inplay for better value. We will also be trading on over 2.5 goals inplay. If we don't see a 1st half goal we will follow the usual plan at HT. Back in if two come early in the 2nd half and concerned a 3rd is on its way.
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Our Trading Result:
We suffered the curse of Betfair removing the inplay market on this one but on the positive side this time. We only managed to get £25 on the laybet as we were looking to stagger our stake and nothing on the goals market so with the game ending in a win for IFK as expected we walked away with £24. Mixed feedback from members but nobody reporting a loss.
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Profit made on this trade = £24
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| Date: 26/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: : 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Fredrikstad have been very impressive this season especially at home. Winning all but one of their games (against leaders Stabaek). In their last 10 home games they have scored 24 goals only failing to score in one match (against Stabaek). Alot to do with this success is their new recruits, especially in midfield but their recent loss of star player Elyounoussi to Dutch side SC Heerenveen is likely to impact them going forward against the stronger teams in the league. We don't feel Brann will be able to exploit this from what we have seen of them this season. H2H Brann have a very good record over Fredrikstad but not when the are in this kind of form. The key thing that stands out here is goals with 90% of these meetings finishing over 2.5. This is supported by Fredrikstad at home with the last 7 all finishing over 2.5 goals.
We prefer to back over 2.5 goals here as a main trade but the market has very little liquidity so will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal as the main bet and using the over 2.5 market as a side trade inplay.
We will follow the same plan for trading out as usual. Out at HT on the goals bet for no loss on under if we don't see a goal and 1.8 on the draw if no goals come before the odds shorten to this point.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.6 and back over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.26. No goals before HT so we traded out at HT for no loss if the game finished under 2.5. Shortly after HT Fredrikstad opened the scoring for us to trade out at 5.2 with £65.
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Profit made on this trade = £33
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| Date: 27/07/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: : 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This is a battle of the bottom teams. Ham-Kam have never beaten Lillestrom when playing at home but this time out they are more evenly match. Despite being bottom Ham-Kam have still remained fairly difficult to beat at home avoiding defeat in 8 of the last 10. We were impressed with their resilience in the recent 2-1 win over Rosenborg and feel they will edge the win here. Lillestrom on the road are having a tough time this season losing all their games. They really have issues keeping a clean sheet too, conceding an average of 2.8 goals a game. We do feel Ham-Kam will win this but because the match odds are fairly evenly match it will be safe to lay the draw and trade out after a goal whoever scores just incase. An early goal is likely so we will be backing over 2.5 goals as a side bet inplay. Usual trade out on both these trades if it doesn't go our way.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.65 and back over 2.5 goals with £37 of the £50 we were looking to get on at 2.2. Lillestrom opened the scoring after 20 min's for us to trade out at 1.58 on the goals bet at 4.4 on the draw bet. Nice and simple.
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Profit made on this trade = £32
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| Date: 27/07/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Tippeligaen |
| Teams: : 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Bodo are the only undefeated home team in the Tipeligaen. There matches against top half teams have mainly ended in a score draws. One think we have been able to bank on from them when at home is them scoring. Against a lyn team that is now undefeated in 6 and scored in all these game we should be in for an entertaining match. When these two have met in previous years there tends to be a winner, with only one draw in the last 15 meeting. Their previous results have been fairly evenly spilt with Lyn winning the last meeting 3-1. We feel the only real option here is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal as picking a winner would be a coin toss. As with the Ham-Kam game we will be able to trade out in profit whoever scores 1st. The over 2.5 goals market is also of interested so will be trading on this inplay. Same trading plan as usual if things go wrong.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.85 and missed the goals bet as the opening goal came too early for us. The goal after 9 min's from Lyn enabled us to trade out at 4.5. Not much profit but still an easy winner,
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Profit made on this trade = £14
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| Date: 28/07/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: : 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The last 20 times these two have met we haven't seen a goalless match. 11 of the last 12 meetings with Orebro playing at home all finished over 2.5 goals. A lot to do with these results is Orebro's record of conceding (in 100% of home meetings against Hammarby) and its not just against Hammarby they have this problem. They have conceded 19 goals in the last 10 home games. Can they prevent Hammarby scoring in this match? We don't think so because since June Hammarby have looked very impressive up front and have scored 10 goals in the last 4 matches. We do feel they will score though as they have done so in the majority of H2H meetings. So out of caution we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If Orebro score 1st we should only get a small positive movement but still trade out. If you want a better price consider staggering your stake inplay. The over 2.5 goals market is a must here so will be also trading on this inplay.
Usual trade out plan on the goals trade at HT if it remains goalless. It makes sense to get back in if a 3rd looks likely after the break.
Not that we think you will need it but the 0-0 is there if your concerned its going to remain goalless inplay.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.47 with £48 of the £100 we were looking to get on. Orebro opened the scoring after 17 min's for us to trade out. We got out at 3.9 with £88 on the draw trade and 1.7 with £60 on the goals bet. Because the match ended in a draw and under 2.5 goals we took the much smaller profit of £21
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Profit made on this trade = £21
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| Date: 29/07/08 |
| Time: 18.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: T-Mobile Bundesliga |
| Teams: : 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Ok I know a few of you will be getting itchy feet here as the Austrian League only kicked off a few weeks ago but from what we have see from both these teams so far it looks pretty cut and dry that Sturm will avoid defeat here. Altach have only won a single match in their last 10 games, this season they have a record of 3 consecutive losses. Defensively they have looked very poor conceding 9 goals in these 3 matches. Against the fluid playing Strum Graz they are likely to struggle to keep a clean sheet with over 2.5 goals highly probable. H2H supports Sturm avoiding defeat as they have done in the last 7 meetings, winning 6 of them. Altach usually score but we haven't seen anything from them this season that convinces us they will here but because of this laying the draw and trading out after a goal looks the slightly safer option. Please feel free to stagger your lay stake for better value. We also like the probability of a 1st half goal so will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.65 and backed over 2.5 goals with £40 of the £50 we were looking to get on at average odds of 2.26. Altach opened the scoring through a penalty about 22 min's in for us to trade out on the draw at 3.6 with £100 and 1.52 with £56 on the goals bet. Most members reporting a similar situation to us with no loss or a small loss like ourselves on the draw and a win on the goals trade (hence why we do them together). So overall £10 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £10
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| Date: 30/07/08 |
| Time: 18.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Allsvenskan |
| Teams: : 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
have been pretty disappointing so far this season with only 1 win in the last 15 games, currently propping up the bottom of the table. Their main issue is their ability to stop their opponents from scoring as they have been conceding 2 goals in most matches. Against 2nd places Elfsborg they should have no chance. H2H Elfsborg have scored in the last 12 meetings with no goalless games between them. When it comes to IFK scoring we can't see it as Elfsborg have only conceded 5 goals in 15 matches but if they do Elfsborg should be able to overcome this. Their previous meeting this season was a convincing 3-0 win to Elfsborg which we are expecting to see again here.
We are going to be backing Elfsborg and trading out after they take the lead, as they usually take a whilst to break down teams on the road we are going to be staggering our back stake during the 1st 30 min's or so, chasing a better price. If they go behind we will back them again for high average odds so we can trade out after they draw level. If they go behind later in the game we will consider laying IFK at short odds.
We will have a small side trade on the over 2.5 goals market as we are only 50/50 on a 1st half goal here. Following the usual trading plan if we don't see one before HT. Back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Elfsborg at average odds of 1.85 and over 2.5 goals at 3.0 with £25. No goals before HT so we traded out at 5.0 on the goals bet for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. We still felt Elfsborg would win here and advised all that contacted us that we would be holding out until the last 10 min's but were concerned they would score after this time. So we did decide to cut the potential loss with just over 10 min's left trading out at 3.0 with £60 leaving a little profit on the Elfsborg win and a smaller loss if it went against us. A little annoyed they scored in the last 10 min's with our profit being cut from around £70 to £5.
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Profit made on this trade = £5
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