01/01/08

0 - 2

£33

02/01/08

1 - 0

£31

03/01/08

£40

04/01/08

£62

05/01/08

£80

05/01/08

- £100

05/01/08

£6

06/01/08

£48

06/01/08

1 - 1

£30

06/01/08

£30

07/01/08

£39

09/01/08

£19

11/01/08

£44

£27

£56

£42

£40

£40

£28

£36

£5

£2

- £50

-£20

£76

£115

-£75

£54

-£50

£6

£30

£75

£36

£28

£35

£58

£23

£33

£56

Our Recommendation:
We are not going to try and call the result here especially after the hugely entertaining 7-4 reverse fixture. We prefer the goals market here as Reading have rarely found scoring at the home an issue and let them just as often. If Pompey were at home we would leave this alone but their away form has been fairly consistent scoring in 9 of the last 10 and averaging just under 2 goals a game.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play once the odds have drifted a little and trading out after a goal or two.

We will also be putting a small side bet (under £10) on the 0-0 (currently at 13 on Betfair) as there are 4 scoreless results in their head to head history. If the game is open we will trade out of this hopefully before a goal.

 

 

Our Recommendation:
Everton have already beaten Middlesbrough this season in a 2-0 home victory back in September but the home side seem to be be improving in form picking a few points up recently. Why we like this game is at the Riverside you usually get a first half goal, just over 80% of games have delivered this and there hasn't been a goalless match there in two years.

We want to back Everton here but with the absence of Arteta (who misses out due to suspension) we feel their strikers may struggle to get supplied, especially from set pieces. As well as head to head history is conflicting.

So we will be laying the draw here around 3.3 and trading out after a goal hopefully from Everton as we feel this is a little safer

Backing over 2.5 goals as a side bet in-play and trading out after a goal or two should deliver some profit so we will be look at this too.

Our Recommendation:
Blackburn might have a few problems at the moment but their record against promoted teams is very good. Going back over a few years they have won 79% of matches when playing at home and scored in 95% of them. The good news for those fans of goals is in 70% of Rovers home games when they have scored the end result has been +2.5 goals.

With the last few meeting going to Blackburn and Sunderland yet to keep a clean sheet on the road conceding an average of 2.6 goals we should see Blackburn score and win.

We will be backing Blackburn (currently available at 1.62) and trading out after they take the lead and as a side trade we will be trading on over 2.5 goals market in-play once the odds have drifted a little.

Our Recommendation:
The first leg ended in a 2 - 1 win to Levante which was the second time Almeria have lost away to Levante in a matter of weeks. If you were to look at Levante's form you would think Almeria are either rubbish or really unlucky as Levante have only managed to win two league matches from 17 games and haven't picked up a single point on the road, conceded an average of 2 goals a game and sporting a humorous -22 goal difference. I think you get the picture.

We feel Almeria will win this, they have won the last two home encounters between these two, held two top 5 clubs to a draw and bet Sevilla in recent weeks and have just recruited some new players straight into the team including the brilliant young Brazilian full back Guilherme.

Whilst we do feel Almeria will win this, as its an unpredictable Cup Match we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and backing the draw after a goal hopefully from Almeria.

Considering Levante's appalling record at keeping a clean sheet especially on the road, the +2.5 goals market is worth considering for a side trade in-play. Don't get in if the players have forgot where the goal is like yesterdays Blackburn game.

Our Recommendation:
This is a game that sees students and mentor meet again with both teams knowing each other’s game inside out in which should be a very tense clash. Academica so far have been fairly predictable at home this season. Losing to the top 6 and winning or drawing with the rest. Braga (a top 6 team) have a superb record against Academica not losing in the last 12 and winning the last 5 match ups. We can't find anything to disagree with the trend continuing so we will be backing Braga around 2.6 and trading out after they take the lead.

Neither team are scoring that well averaging around a goal a game but Braga are better defensively. This is likely to finish under 2.5 goals so if you fancy a side trade its available at 1.6 which is about right.

Our Recommendation:
After Tottenhams hugely entertaining 6-4 League win over Reading a week ago, it really would be asking too much for more of the same, but of course as this season has shown us already, Spurs can't help themselves when it comes to scoring and conceding goals. Man for Man it should be a a Spurs victory here and with Reading having a drastically different line up than last time they met (potentially a weaker one) we find it hard to appose Spurs. When this is complimented by the fact all 3rd round Premier League clashes have traditionally featured lots of goals (76% in the last 5 years) we feel this will be the most probably result.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play as the odds are a little short (current available at 1.63) and trading after a goal or two. You won't want to wait to long...

Also as the stronger team tends to make it through to the next round (75% last 5 year) a side trade on Spurs to win or lay the draw when the odds come in should be a decent decision.

 

Our Recommendation:
Man City have had the better of West Ham in the most recent encounters between the teams, winning the last three and keeping clean sheets along the way. The most recent we watch was when the sides met in the opening fixture of the season back in August where City managed a comfortable 2-0 win. What stops us backing City here as the main trade is the Hammers recent improvement in form (wins against Blackburn and Manchester United) so we prefer the goals market. Not because either team are scoring well or conceding lots but more because 3rd round FA Cup Matches between Premiership teams through up lots of goals historically. We have our fingers crossed for a goal in the lasts 10 min's of the 1st half.

We will be backing over 2.5 in-play once the odds have drifted for good value then trading out after a goal.

Give it about 15 mins in-play to decide if City are worth backing as a side trade. If they don't start well, leave alone.

 

Our Recommendation:
This will be the 3rd time Villa have met Utd at this stage since the millennium. Unfortunately this tends to be a predictable result for Villa, they lose! But as Villa supporters we would like to remind those Utd fans of the 1957 FA Cup Final where they actually managed to win!

Historically this match up delivers goals with the last two finishing 2-1 to Man Utd. Which is our preferred trade here.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play as usual for better value and trading our after a goal hopefully from Villa.

We hate to say it but a side trade on Utd to win would be a good decision as they have won the last 10 games they have played at Villa Park. Get in if they start well.

 

 

Our Recommendation:
Burnley are on a bad run in the Championship, without a win in six. But they will be motivated by there excellent home form in the FA Cup. Not losing in the last 10 years, winning six of their eight fixtures, in fact they actually managed to beat an under-strength Liverpool back in 03/04. This won't faze Arsenal as they have a superb record on the road in the Cup. In 22 away matches over the last 10 years, they have only been defeated twice. When you look at previous Premiership Vs Championship matchups with similar difference in class the most common trend is goals, with around 70% delivering this result.

So we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trading out after a goal or two. Currently available at 1.9.

We won't consider backing Arsenal as a side trade unless Burnley take the lead as they are very short as expected or they drift out.

We all know about Arsenal's habit of scoring late so in the unlikely even this match is at 1-1 or 2-2 going in the last 15 min's it might be a good idea to lay the draw and trade out after a goal.

 

Our Recommendation:
Although Liverpool's form has not been good, an away cup tie seems to suit their style of play. Of course these two met 2 years ago Liverpool winning a thrilling match 5-3. Liverpool had a large dose of luck on that occasion but, if anything, Liverpool are stronger now and Luton weaker - they were, after all, in the Championship the last time and now languish in the Division 1 relegation zone (though that's partly due to the 10-point deduction). All of this, plus the fact they will want to get back to winning ways quickly, seem to point to an away win. One caveat is that Luton's home forms has recently been good, but their last defeat came against the other half of Merseyside (1-0) in the Carling Cup. So you may profit by waiting to see how it develops before plumping for Liverpool with a decent odds. If Torres is playing then the chances of a Liverpool win will be even stronger.

Not as obvious as you might think so the advice here is to wait and see if Liverpool match Luton's expected determination, and then back Liverpool at odds greater than 1.4, especially if Torres starts.

Otherwise, if Luton start better than Liverpool, consider backing over 2.5 goals, again once the odds drift to better than 2.0, possibly waiting until the second half to back Liverpool if available at better than 1.9.

 

Our Recommendation:
Real Madrid at home are practically invincible and are currently on a winning streak of 15, obviously looking to extend it to 16 with this match. Zaragoza can't be looking forward to this, currently winless in 7 games and only an 18% win rate on the road and half that against top 4 teams. What we find interesting is Madrid frequently concede in their home matches (9 goals in 10 matches) especially to teams in the top half. But their ability to score outweighs this greatly managing to score at least 2 goals in all home games on this current winning streak.

This should be as safe as it can be to trade on over 2.5 goals so that is our recommendation. Back over 2.5 goals in-play and trade out after a goal or two. You might want to get in fairly early with half your stake and let odds drift out for better value before getting in with the rest.

A side bet on Real could be a good idea, but at the current price its a little short. Leave it up to you.

Our Recommendation:
2nd Place Torquay meet Nigel Clough's 5th placed Burton at home which is likely to prove a stern test for both teams. Torquay will welcome the fact that they have won 9 of their last 10 home games including a 4-2 whipping of 3rd placed Stevenage. Burton will be no pushover though as they managed to beat Torquay back in September 3-1 and will be looking to do the double over them.

There are a few things that stand out to us here. The lack of draws when Torquay play at home (14 games without a draw) and when Burton have played against offensively good home teams the last 3 seasons the probability of a match finishing over 2.5 goals is 93%.

So from this we will be laying the draw around 3.5 and backing the draw after a goal, hopefully after Torquay take the lead, and trading on over 2.5 goals once the odds drift out a little.

Those who like insurance the 0-0 draw is available at 15.5

Our Recommendation:
Only 2 weeks ago we traded on the same match, so here we go again.. this time in the first leg of the semi-final of the Carling Cup.  Arsenal  are unbeaten in the last 20 meetings in all competitions between these two bitter rivals. You will have to wind the clock back to 1999 to see the last Spurs win. If you remember last years 1st leg meeting in the Carling cup Spurs lead 2 - 0 at one point only to be pulled back to 2 - 2, we pretty sure Wenger will want to avoid this happening again. With the Ramos influence and the prolific goal scoring team that Spurs are likely to field against Arsenal's youngsters, we are not confident enough to back Arsenal as the main bet here, preferring to follow the most prominent trend, goals.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two. If Spurs score first we will consider waiting a while for the second goal, depending on how Arsenal react.

We will also consider trading on the Arsenal win if they hold their own against this experienced Spurs side as they still haven't totally fixed their issues at the back especially from free kicks.

Our Recommendation:
The last 3 matches Atletico have played at home against Valladolid were won by a 1 goal margin, with the most recent finishing 4-3, hell of a game to watch! But this time out Valladolid look to be showing a total lack of interest in winning this match and will start without any of what we consider influential players, they don't even have any decent ones on the bench, opting for their reserve team to play this one. With Mista, Forlan, Aguero, Reyes confirmed in the team for Atletico for this match we should see them take the win here and probably by 2 goals.

We will be backing Atletico and trading out after they take the lead. As a side bet we will also be backing them on the handicap -1 giving Valladolid a goal advantage. If your not happy with this look to get in on the over 2.5 goals market in-play and trade out after a goal.

Our Recommendation:
NEC are on an eight game winless run which has left them down in 14th place just above the relegation zone managing just three wins all season. Its going to be a tough ask for NEC to take 3 points here. Twente are solid at the back conceded just 14 goals in the 18 league games, and matching league leaders PSV for defensive ability. NEC seem to be lacking the motivation needed to deliver a decent result this season despite having a good squad, this is evident when you look at their scoring record only managing 15 goals in 18 games.

Recent league head to head history supports an away win here with the last 3 going to Twente and 6 of the last 7.

We do have a fly in the ointment on this one because NEC have beaten Twente this season but in a cup match, which knocked them out in the 2nd round of the KNVB-Beker. They are still rather mift about this, so hopefully this will fuel them on to a decent win.

We are going to give if a short time in-play on this one to see how they start but there are two options here for you.

As there has only been 3 draws in the last 27 matched between these two laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal hopefully from Twente is a good and hopefully safe option. You will be glad to know there isn't a 0-0 in their history!

Or

If Twente start the better of the two back them and trade out after they take the lead.

Our Recommendation:
With over 85% of Arsenal's home games against newly promoted teams (since the last time Birmingham visited) yielding 3 goals or more we should see some goals here. Especially with what we would consider a defensive crisis for Arsenal in this match up, injuries and the African Cup of Nations take 5 potential first team defensive players. Birmingham won't ever have a better chance to score and if they do we should definitely see 3 goals here.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal here. If Birmingham score first we will consider giving it some time for an equalizer from Arsenal if the first goal comes early (depending how they are playing).

Our Recommendation:
Villa have lost only one game at home to teams below them in the league under O’Neill managing to win just under 70% of them and scoring at least one goal in all home matches (good news if you like to lay the draw). Reading are scoring fairly well on the road managing to in the last 8 games but they don't tend to score first, usually walking away with a consolation goal with a 88% probability that the home team (Villa) will score first.

We will be backing Villa and trading out after they take the lead.

The over 2.5 goals market is of interest. 70% of Readings away games have had +2.5 goals and with both teams scoring in the majority of games its worth trading on in-play once the odds have drifted a little.

Our Recommendation:
As you would expect when undefeated Inter play a team sitting 3rd from bottom everything points to the inter win. You won't be supervised to here that Inter have won 92% of the games on the road to teams in the bottom half. With Siena losing 69% of their recent encounters to Big Four teams over the last few seasons, we should see the Inter win here. Don't be surprised though if Siena score as they have done so in 50% of the recent meeting between these two.

This is the first official match back for Inter after the Christmas break so give it a short time to see how they start, just incase they are still in holiday mood, then look to back Inter and trade out after they take the lead.

We also feel you could profit from backing under 2.5 goals as a side bet and trading out under 1.7

Our Recommendation:
This match pitches bottom Vs top so Levante can't be looking forward to this encounter especially when Madrid have an 88% win rate against teams likely to be relegated. With the long running saga of financial issues, players walking out and unpaid wages at Levante we can't believe that Levante will be able to tip the trend in their favour so we will be backing Real Madrid and trading out after they take the lead over 1.4 if possible.

We also feel you could profit from backing over 2.5 goals as a side bet in-play and trading out after a goal.

Our Recommendation:
Crewe find themselves struggling down in 21st position in the league having picked up just 25 points from their 23 games. Most of these have come from home matches and if you were to take them on this alone they would be top half. Leeds Utd are just outside the promotion places, but if they hadn't had 15 points deducted for their financial issues they would be sitting top 8 points clear of current leaders Swansea. Crewe are not easy to beat at home and looking at the head to head history, Leeds haven't beaten Crewe at home yet.

With Leeds new signing's and Crewes need for points to stay out of the relegation zone its a tough call, so rather than following the favorite (Leeds) we are opting to lay the draw around 3.5 if possible and trade out after a goal either way.

There isn't much chance of a 0-0 but back it if for your trade out liability if your concerned either before or at HT.

Our Recommendation:
I wouldn't want to guess the score on this one... the last two meetings have delivered 14 goals with the hugely entertaining 6-4 Spurs win and last weeks 2-2 draw, who knows how many goals we will see this time. We are leaning towards slightly less goals(2 or 3).

With Spurs having played four testing games in twelve days, having won only 8% of games this season on the road and looking tired in their most recent match against Chelsea, we feel Reading have a good chance here. They have been scoring reasonably well at home and have managed to win 54% of home games so far this season.

Saying this we are not 100% confident that Reading will win so have opted for laying the draw around 3.5 because of the probability of both teams scoring enabling us to trade out either way after a goal. But ideally after Spurs take the lead as the odds will drift further.

If Spurs start like men possessed with Berbatov and Keane shooting from all angles we will opt to back them instead of laying the draw. You should have enough time to evaluate the game as you will have to wait for the odds to shorten on the draw as they are currently at 3.75.

If the game is open like the last few meetings we will consider backing over 2.5 goals in-play and trading out after a goal. Be warned if Reading are inhibiting Spurs style of play and slowing the game down at any opportunity don't get in on this side trade as it will go against you.

Our Recommendation:
Excluding the 0-0 result from the reverse fixture back on the 5th Jan, Man City have had the better of West Ham in the most recent encounters between the teams, winning the previous three and keeping clean sheets along the way. With City still unbeaten at home we feel the Eastlands factor will be the deciding factor here but don't expect loads of goals as they aren't exactly scoring well at the moment. We feel 1-0 is the most likely result but being a cup match anything could happen.

We will be laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after a goal, hopefully from Man City.

As you all know we lost money on this one 11 days ago with it ending 0-0. So back it if your concerned. We will back it around HT if there are no goals before the break, as we feel there will be a goal in the 1st half.

Our Recommendation:
Napoli come into this on the back of a 5-2 whipping at San Siro. The good news is their home form has been pretty good this season not losing in the last 5. Saying this we have notice a drop in form since some key players have been out of the squad especially Lavezzi and leading scorer Zalayeta. The good news is they have a fully fit squad so we are fairly confident they will repair the damage done in the 1st meeting where they lost 2-1.

Lazio are sitting just above the relegation zone and have been very disappointing in the league this season. They have only managed 4 wins in 18 games and these were all against bottom half teams. They might have won the first leg but this was against a Napoli team that Edy Reja wouldn't have fielded unless he had injuries and suspensions.

There are some conflicting trends here and head to head history is very evenly split so it make sense to lay the draw rather than back Napoli outright.

We will be laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after a goal, hopefully from Napoli.

There are a few 0-0 draws in their history so backing this should be considered as a safety option for your trade out liability either before or at HT.

Our Recommendation:
Reading have scored in just over 75% of home games over the last few season and when their opposition score the probability of a game finishing over 2.5 goals is over 70%. Reading managed to shut out United at Old Trafford on the opening day of the season, but with the worst defensive record in the League and currently only 2 points from the relegation zone, it is highly unlikely that they will be able to prevent a very inform Utd team, who are also the highest scoring team in the League from finding the net especially when they have big problems in central defense.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals here in-play for better value, staggering our stake to get better average odds and to ensure we get some money on rather than wait too long and miss the boat. Then obviously trading out after a goal.

If Utd start as expected a side bet on them should be considered, trading out after they take the lead.

Our Recommendation:
In 88% of Bolton's recent away games they have conceded in the first half and haven't won an away game this season. Not really the record you want to take to a team who will feel like they have won the lottery with Keegan and probably Shearer returning to St James Park. Even though Nicolas Anelka has now joined Chelsea we are a little concerned with the new Bolton line up especially if the new signings make their way into this match, so we won't be backing either team here. The most probable result here is over 2.5 goals (around 75%) and if Newcastle score in the first half this rises to 93%.

So we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trading out after a goal or two.

Because of the lack of draws between these two (only 1 in the last 17 match-ups) you could also consider laying the draw as a side trade, or if your happier with this as the main trade swap these around.

Our Recommendation:
Over the last 3 seasons Juventus have a 100% record against poor away teams (this is what we consider Sampdoria as they have lost 7 of 9 games played this season) At their temporary home, Juventus have conceded only one goal in the last 7 games and this was against league leaders Inter. Sampdoria have failed to score in 71% of their losses away this season and have a 100% loss rate to Big Four clubs since the start of 2005 season. To support this 4 of the last 5 Head to head home meetings have gone to Juventus so obviously we do see a Juventus winning here but please give it a couple of min's in-play to see how Sampdoria start as they can be a tricky customer.

We will be backing Juventus and ideally trading out after they take the lead and as a side trade we will be backing under 2.5 goals and trading out once the odds have shortened in our favour. (late ammendment due to request under 1.75)

Our Recommendation:
Here we go again.. The 3rd time in as many weeks. City come into this with a psychological edge having defeated the visitors 1-0 on Wednesday in their FA Cup Third Round replay and beaten them 2-0 at Upton Park in the opening fixture of the season. The head to head history also supports a home win with 71% of matchups going to City. From this you would probably think we would be looking to back City, but West Ham’s improvement in form and defensive strength on the road deters us from backing the home win here unless they score first. What we feel most confident about is under 2.5 goals with 7 of the last 8 matchups finishing with this result and 75% of West Ham’s away games following a home victory have finishing under 2.5 goals.

We are going to put our neck on the chopping block for this one, we do feel both sides will be looking to score early and a goal will come in the first half then the team that takes the lead will then defend deep so it will be low scoring but also feel there will be a first half goal. So our recommendation is to back over 2.5 goals in-play staggering your stake for better value then trading out after a goal.

If your not happy with this follow the stats which do support under 2.5 but it is very short at 1.65

If no goal comes in the first half. You should be able to trade out with no loss on under.

A side trade worth considering is when City score first in a home match they have a 91% win rate so they should be backed if they score first.

Our Recommendation:
Liverpool started the season with a win over Villa at home and they haven’t lost any of their last 12 league games against Villa, in fact they have taken more points off Villa than any other club in the Premiership. But Liverpool's inconsistent season has seen them slip to tenth at the weekend as Everton leapfrogged them, Manchester City edged ahead of them and more concerning for them Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea all moved further away. Villa on the other hand are unbeaten in six League games, having won their last three, and playing with greater consistency than Liverpool. All things considered we feel this will end in a scoring draw which doesn't really suit either team.

To reduce the risk of a loss we have opted to lay Liverpool at 1.58 (instead of backing the draw) and trade out when either Villa take the lead or the odds on Liverpool drift past 2.3.

You could cover your backside by trading on the goals market in-play as a side bet here. The head to head history supports +2.5 goals (77% when Liverpool are at home)

Our Recommendation:
Spurs haven’t beaten Arsenal in nine years (21 matches), so a League Cup semi-final would be the ideal time to do it. It does look like Arsenal are Spurs bogy team, will tonight be the night they break Arsenals Psychological hold over them? In the last meeting we saw them outplayed the Gunners on their own patch only to lose out when Theo Walcott equalized 11 min's from time. A point to note, this was against the youngster, this time out Wenger has decided to field a strong squad with Fabregas, Adebayor and Hleb to name a few. They may not start but if things go pear shaped for the Gunners they will have the quality to pull it back.

We don't feel it will be Spurs night, and will be backing Arsenal and trading out after they take the lead.

The goals market is worth considering as 90% of Spurs home games this season have had +2.5 goals and 2 of the 3 meetings this season between these teams have had 3 goals or more.

Our Recommendation:
Everton know this is their only genuine chance of winning silverware this season, following their rather embarrassing FA Cup exit at the hands of Oldham. For this match Everton will be missing the likes of Yakubu and Pienaar, and Osman who is still not fully fit, and they are having to play 2 games in 3 days which is likely to have an impact.

Chelsea already have the advantage on aggregate here and are very good at defending an advantage even without some of their key players. Avram Grant will most likely keep it tight, not necessarily going out to win the game but definitely looking to grab an away goal.

The head to head history points to a Chelsea win with no win's in the last 18 attempts for the Toffees, and to support this they have won only 9% of the two-legged cup ties when we have trailed after the first leg.

We got burn 't yesterday so we are opting for the safer option here of laying the draw and trading out after a goal (hopefully from Chelsea).

We don't think it will be high scoring so trading on under 2.5 goals could be an option for those who like a side trade. Or if you think there is going to be a first half goal like we do the over market could be more appealing.