February 2008
trading advice given
Profit for Month = £1047
Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
|
|
|
£54 |
| 02/02/08 |
Man City V Arsenal |
1 - 3 |
£60 |
| 02/02/08 |
Tottenham V Manchester Utd |
1 - 1 |
£42 |
| 02/02/08 |
Portsmouth V Chelsea |
1 - 1 |
£40 |
| 03/02/08 |
W Bremen V Bochum |
1 - 2 |
£23 |
| 03/02/08 |
Fulham V Aston Villa |
2 - 1 |
£10 |
| 04/02/08 |
Tunisia V Cameroon |
2 - 2 |
£52 |
| 05/02/08 |
England U21 V Republic of Ireland U21 |
3 - 0 |
£10 |
| 06/02/08 |
England V Switzerland |
2 - 1 |
£73 |
| 06/02/08 |
Rep of Ireland V Brazil |
0 - 1 |
£40 |
| 07/02/08 |
Ivory Coast V Egypt |
1 - 4 |
N/A |
| 09/02/08 |
Aston Villa V Newcastle |
4 - 1 |
£70 |
| 09/02/08 |
Everton V Reading |
1 - 0 |
£40 |
| 10/02/08 |
Chelsea V Liverpool |
0 - 0 |
£40 |
| 10/02/08 |
Catania v Inter Milan |
0 - 2 |
£83 |
| 11/02/08 |
Arsenal V Blackburn |
2 - 0 |
N/A |
| 12/02/08 |
Weymouth V Torquay |
0 - 0 |
- £70 |
| 13/02/08 |
Brann V Everton |
0 - 2 |
£40 |
| 14/02/08 |
Slavia Prague V Tottenham |
1 - 2 |
£33 |
| 15/02/08 |
Ajax V Sparta Rotterdam |
6 - 2 |
£12 |
| 16/02/08 |
Liverpool V Barnsley |
1 - 2 |
£33 |
| 16/02/08 |
Man Utd V Arsenal |
4 - 0 |
£17 |
| 17/02/08 |
Kilmarnock V Rangers |
0 - 2 |
£43 |
| 17/02/08 |
Preston V Portsmouth |
0 - 1 |
£3 |
| 18/02/08 |
Bristol City V Crystal Palace |
1 - 1 |
£2 |
| 19/02/08 |
Liverpool V Inter Milan |
2 - 0 |
£41 |
| 19/02/08 |
Olympiacos v Chelsea |
0 - 0 |
£0 |
| 20/02/08 |
Lyon V Manchester Utd |
1 - 1 |
£20 |
| 21/02/08 |
Atl Madrid v Bolton |
0 - 0 |
£17 |
| 22/02/08 |
Mainz v Carl Zeiss Jena |
2 - 2 |
£40 |
| 23/02/08 |
Portsmouth V Sunderland |
1 - 0 |
£40 |
| 23/02/08 |
Newcastle V Manchester Utd |
1 - 5 |
£37 |
| 24/02/08 |
Reading V Aston Villa |
1 - 2 |
£81 |
| 25/02/08 |
Manchester City V Everton |
0 - 2 |
£8 |
| 26/02/08 |
Juventus V Torino |
0 - 0 |
- £70 |
| 27/02/08 |
Middlesbrough v Sheffield Utd |
0 - 0 |
£0 |
| 28/02/08 |
Feyenoord V Zwolle |
2 - 1 |
£57 |
| 29/02/08 |
Mgladbach v Erzgebirge |
2 - 0 |
£26 |
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Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 01/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 1 |
| Teams: - SCORE: 1- 2 |
Our Recommendation:
The two sides sit at opposite ends of the table with Bayern top on goal difference with Hansa Rostock finding themselves in 15th, just two points clear of the relegation zone. The first meeting of these two this season was a very one sided affair with Bayern winning 3 - 0. We are not expecting another 3-0 win here as Hansa are capable of good football and have improved recently but this should still go to Bayern.
We will give it a little time in-play to evaluate this game as this is the first day back and is likely to be slow starting. We will be backing Bayern around 1.5 and trading out after they take the lead. If Hansa score first consider backing the draw and trading out after Bayern equalize or backing them again at higher odds (obviously don't do this is they are playing poorly).
We are not sure about the over 2.5 goals market at the moment but if the game is open and Toni and Klose are on form it should be considered in-play as a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
A nice easy one to start the month with here! We got in about 5 min's in on the back bet at 1.45 as they were obviously the better team as expected. We got a bit greedy on the over 2.5 goals bet and decided to wait for better value which back fired as a goal came from Franck Ribery on the 10 minute mark. We traded out of our back bet after the goal and decided to weight the profit towards the Bayern win giving us £31 if they took all 3 points and left £1 on the draw and Hansa win. Watching the game we decided and advised those who contacted us the goals market should still be considered up to half time. This time we got our £50 side bet on after the odds had drifted out to 1.7 trading out after the next goal from Toni at 1.24 with £50 for no profit if the game finished under and £23 if it finished with 3 goals or more. So £54 profit overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £54
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| Date: 02/02/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Man City V Arsenal - SCORE: 1 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
City have slipped to sixth and only picked up two wins in their last ten games. Alot to do with this is their inability to beat teams in the top 10. There winning ways at home could becoming to an end in this match we feel! Especially when H2H Arsenal have only lost once in the last 8 to City that was back in August 2006 and with Adebayor scoring in eight of his last nine starts and City faultering up front at the moment this should be an end to their unbeaten home record.
We will be laying the draw here as around 3.6 and trading out after a goal hopefully from Arsenal.
We also feel under 2.5 goals is likely as 6 of Arsenal’s last 9 games against top 10 teams have produced -2.5 goals and 7 of City's last 10 have had the same result.
If you don't like this option we prefer the risk of backing over 2.5 goals in-play during the first half and trading out after a goal. If one doesn't come it should be safe to trade out with no loss on under at HT.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.5 on the lay bet and in at 2.5 on the over 2.5 goals bet. We also had a little side bet on Adebayor scoring so we were over the moon when he scored (we won't report the profit) and we were able to trade out at 5.9 with £59 for £41 profit on the win and £39 if it finished in a draw. We also traded out on the goals bet at 1.62 with £90 for £40 if the game finished under and £19 if it finished over. Unfortunately we took the smaller profit on the goals bet as more goals followed.
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Profit made on this trade = £60
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| Date: 02/02/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Tottenham V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
It's now four wins in a row with four clean sheets for Utd, and with Ronaldo in the form he is there can be little chance of opponents keeping clean sheets. Spurs will take confidence in that they have won their last 4 home games in the league and the additions of Hutton and Woodgate should give ensure they are more solid at the back. Spurs record against the Big Four is really quite bad, their H2H history against Utd is even worse and after losing at Old Trafford last Sunday we can't see Spurs taking all the points here but we haven't forgotten the 5-1 whipping of Arsenal in the Cup a few weeks ago. So we prefer to give it some time inplay to see how it starts. If Utd are dominant we will back them around 1.9 or if its hard to decide we will take the safer option of laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally under 3.6.
The over 2.5 goals market should also be considered as a side trade as Spurs practically always concede against Big Four teams and 75% of United’s away games against teams outside the top 6 have delivered over 3 goals over the past few seasons. Get it in-play as usual for better value.
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Our Trading Result:
This one didn't exactly go as planned but still a positive result. Quite obviously to anyone who watched the match, Man Utd definitely weren't the dominant side. Hence the final result! We got in on the goals bet before the draw bet as we were waiting for the odds to shortened to 3.6 but Spurs opened the scoring before we got in. So we backed over 2.5 goals at 2.24 in-play about 15 min's in and traded out at 1.5 with £75 for £25 across both options after the goal. We also felt that Spurs could pull this one off so got in at 3.4 after goal on the draw bet. This wasn't the best decision as we had to wait ages for the odds to drift out to the 4.1 we were looking for. We traded out of the draw bet with £83 for a further 17 profit. Those who waited a little longer could have got much better odds.
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Profit made on this trade = £42
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| Date: 02/02/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Portsmouth V Chelsea - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Portsmouth may still be hanging on to their top 10 status on paper but their recent performances are far below that standard. On the road they have been OK but at home they have only managed 3 wins so far this season and these were against teams in the bottom 3rd. They have also failed to score in 7 of the 11 games (which why they have obviously recruit Defoe from Spurs). Since the start of last season Chelsea have been practically invincible away to mid-table teams winning 92% of matches managing clean sheets in 85% of them. The last 4 meeting with Pompey playing at Fratton park have all finished 0-2 to Chelsea which we see as the most likely result.
We are a little concerned that Chelsea have played a lot of games in recent weeks and with some key players out for the African Cup of Nations it might be tighter than expected so we will give it some time in-play before making a decision. So same thought process as in the Spurs game If Chelsea are dominant we will back them around 1.8 or if its hard to decide we will take the safer option of laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally under 3.6.
Not much chance of a high scoring game here but we do feel we will have a first half goal so back over 2.5 inplay for better value and trade out after a goal. If no goal comes in the first half trade out at HT for no loss on under or if you prefer split it across all options.
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Our Trading Result:
Another difficult to call one so we took the option to lay the draw and told those who contacted us about it to do the same. We got in at 3.5 a short time in and also got in on the goals market 2.84 after a decent shot from Pompey. No goals in the first half so we traded out for no loss if the game finished under at 5.2 just before HT. 55 min's in Anelka opened the scoring for Chelsea for us to trade out at 6.0 with £58 giving a £42 profit on the win and £40 on the draw. 10 min's later Pompey's new signing Defoe brought them level which was well deserved. So the smaller profit of £40 for this one but still a profit!
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 03/02/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams:Fulham V Aston Villa - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Fulham are a club in grave danger of relegation. With their recent managerial fiasco they now at last have someone decent in charge. But still they have only managed 2 wins so far this season and haven't won in the last 14 league and cup games. What they must find frustrating is they have lost the lead in 11 Premier League matches throwing away 25 points. If you had layed Fulham to win after they had scored in these matches you would have paid for your summer holiday by now!
Villa are unbeaten in eight League games and under Martin O’Neill have lost only 12% of matches away to sides below them in the league. They are in the best form we have seen them in during the last 10 years and with the coveted 4th place fourth Champions League spot in reach we should see a strong Villa performance.
There is only one thing that puts us off backing Villa outright and that is 5 of the last 6 meeting between these two have ended in a draw. So we will be laying the draw as goals are likely and trading out after a goal, hopefully when Villa take the lead. If Fulham score first you should be able to trade out at similar odds. We would then look to back Villa as they are highly likely to grab an equalizer (don't back them if the aren't playing well).
It would be worth considering a side trade on the goals market in-play as Fulham have only kept a clean sheet in 7% of their games over the last few seasons and Villa are scoring an average of 2 goals a game on the road (don't get in until it opens up)
Those with a nervous disposition, consider backing the 0-0 correct score either before or as we will if the game is tight in-play around HT.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.35 just after the matched turned in-play. Neither team were very convincing up front but Fulham especially lacked finishing around the goal mouth in the 1st half so we left the goals market alone and advised those who contacted us to do so. We did tell them we felt Villa would score but if they were concerned to back the 0-0. We backed it at 4.9 with £40 to cover our potential trade out liability. 68 min's in the game completely changed with Villa taking the lead through a Aaron Hughes og. so we traded out at 5.0 with £50 for a profit of £50 if the game didn't finish in a draw and £35 loss if it did. So we were kicking ourselves when Fulham equalized as we were stuck with our options really as we had advised members not to get in on the goals bet so despite being Villa supports had a sigh of relief when Bullard's free kick went pass Carson. Hell of a turnaround in the second half from Fulham!
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Profit made on this trade = £10
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| Date: 03/02/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 1 |
| Teams:W Bremen V Bochum - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Werder Bremen have never been beaten by Bochum at the home and it isn't likely to happen today especially with Bremen coming into this with 8 consecutive home wins, scoring an average of 3 goals a game, and historically always starting strong after the winter break.
With two wins at the start of the season for Bochum they have now lost 7 of the last 8 on the road which is not the form you would want to take with you to face a team that are likely to finish 1st or 2nd this season.
With Bremen wanting the steal Bayern München thunder by going joint top with the win here and Bochum fighting to stay out of the relegation zone, it will be a tough fight but we can only see it going one way and that's to Bremen.
We will be backing Bremen hopefully over 1.4 and trading out after they take the lead and as a side trade we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play as this is very likely. we will give it some time for these to drift for better value.
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Our Trading Result:
We had to wait quite a while to get in on this one 22 min's in fact but it was worth it. We got in at 1.42 on the back bet and 1.92 on the over 2.5 goals bet. Bremen opened the scoring just before HT for us to trade out at 1.15 on the back bet with £120 for £24 profit if Bremen won and £20 if they didn't. We also got out on the goals bet at 1.86 with £50 and because it was only £3 profit we left it on over 2.5 goals, so £23 profit overall. It is definitely the day of the underdogs with both Fulham and Bochum winning.
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Profit made on this trade = £23
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| Date: 04/02/08 |
| Time: 20.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: African Cup of Nations |
| Teams:Tunisia v Cameroon - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
The Tunisians enter this game as Group D leaders, a group that included the highly fancied Senegal, and a very competent Angolan team so they definitely didn't have a walk through to get here. Cameroon easily won over their last few opponents with a 5-1 win over Zambia and a 3-0 victory over Sudan, with Samuel Eto’o putting five goals in the oppositions net in 3 games. So this one is a tough call, even though Cameroon have looked disorganized in mid-field. If we had to pick a team for overall ability it would be Tunisia but we are definitely expecting Eto'o to score for Cameroon. So the only real option here is to lay the draw as goals are likely and trade out a goal, hopefully from the favorites Cameroon.
If shots are coming from all angles and it is obvious a goal is coming please consider backing over 2.5 goals in-play and trading out after a goal.
We can't see it but if it is really tight and no goal is in sight as usual consider backing the 0-0 correct score in-play to cover your trade out liability.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.45 but unfortunately didn't get in on the goals market until after the 1st goal as we were about 2 seconds late getting in so we ended up taking 1.7 after the odds drifted again. We are pretty positive most members would have got in on this side trade as it was very open and end to end. After the first goal we got out on the draw bet by backing the draw at 5.2 with £66 for £34 profit if the match finished in a win and £32 if it finished in a draw. We then traded out on the goals bet after the goal at 1.23 with £65 for £20 if the match finished over 2.5. So a nice easy winner here for all of us.
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Profit made on this trade = £52
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| Date: 04/02/08 |
| Time: 20.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: African Cup of Nations |
| Teams: England U21 V Republic of Ireland U21 - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
With England having a 6 point cushion at the top of their group and an unbeaten record from the six qualifying games so far, its going to be a tough game for Ireland to pull anything off here, as they haven't really shown any form in the lead up to this match, and managed to only pick up 3 points from their games. If there was more value in England's price we would have looked to back them to win but at 1.2 that is currently available its not really worth the risk. Both teams are missing some key players but England look to have fielded the stronger team so we have decided the goals market looks the better value.
So our recommendation is to back over 2.5 goals in-play once the game opens up and trade out after a goal. Ideally over 2.1
If England go behind its worth backing them and trading out after they equalize or take the lead which is very likely.
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Our Trading Result:
When it comes to England are judgment is impaired because there is no way we saw 3 goals coming in the second half, well until about 10 min's in that is, it was like watching two different teams. Anyway we backed over 2.5 goal in-play at 2.6 we would have probably waited a lot longer but we advised to get in over 2.1. At HT we felt Ireland had put on a good show and the game was fairly tight and even. So we traded out for no loss on under 2.5 goals by laying over 2.5 at 4.1 with £100 leaving us a liability of £150 if the game finished over 2.5. 55 min's in the game dynamic had changed and it was very open and England scored 5 min's later via an og. by Halloran. 8 min's further in they scored again where we knew trading out on the goals bet was a bad idea so we advised those who contacted us to turn the trade out around by laying under 2.5 so when another goal came we would be in a positive position. We layed under 2.5 at 1.8 with £160 which gave us a £10 profit if the match finished over 2.5. We also advise to back 2-1 and 3-0 and 2-0 if they were concerned. We won't report the profit on the correct score market as we didn't mention it in advance so a lot of work for £10. If we had simply waited we would have taken the full profit of £160.
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Profit made on this trade = £10
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| Date: 06/02/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: International Friendly |
| Teams: England V Switzerland - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The record between these two is heavily weighted towards England with Switzerland only picking up 3 wins from the 19 encounters. England will take comfort they have a 100% record over the Swiss when playing at home, but a word of warning the last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw. There are various trend supporting a home win here and we can find little to appose it. We are a little concerned that this is Capello's first game in charge but on a positive note the five predecessors in this role all began their tenures with victories. So with Capello needing a positive result and the players, playing to prove they deserve a place we should see an England win here.
We will be laying the draw here as we are confident of a goal (only 1 of the last 19 have had no goals between these two) and as usual trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour, ideally from England . If your not happy laying at the available odds give it a little time in-play for them to drift or back England outright which we will also consider is they are dominant.
If the game is open please consider trading on the over 2.5 goals market in-play.
If it looks like its going to be goalless backing the 0-0 correct score to cover your liability on the lay bet in-play. In fact its probably worth you getting a £5 bet on now at the odds of 13 and backing it later again if needed. You can always trade out of it if the game is open.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 4.2 in-play and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.8 in-play as it was open with chances at both ends. We also backed England at 1.43 after Rooney hit the side netting. It took a while but England found their groove and took the lead through Jermaine Jenas goal 5 min's before HT enabling us to trade out on all bets. We backed the draw at 9.2 with £45 for £55 profit on the win and £49 if it ended in a draw. We also traded out on the win bet at 1.15 with £60 for £12 profit across all options and finally we traded out at 2.3 on the goals bet with £61 for £11 across both options. We also had £5 on the 0-0 correct score which we didn't trade out of so overall £73 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £73
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| Date: 06/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: International Friendly |
| Teams: Rep of Ireland v Brazil - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The record between these two is heavily weighted towards England with Switzerland only picking up 3 wins from the 19 encounters. England will take comfort they have a 100% record over the Swiss when playing at home, but a word of warning the last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw. There are various trend supporting a home win here and we can find little to appose it. We are a little concerned that this is Capello's first game in charge but on a positive note the five predecessors in this role all began their tenures with victories. So with Capello needing a positive result and the players, playing to prove they deserve a place we should see an England win here.
We will be laying the draw here as we are confident of a goal (only 1 of the last 19 have had no goals between these two) and as usual trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour, ideally from England . If your not happy laying at the available odds give it a little time in-play for them to drift or back England outright which we will also consider is they are dominant.
If the game is open please consider trading on the over 2.5 goals market in-play.
If it looks like its going to be goalless backing the 0-0 correct score to cover your liability on the lay bet in-play. In fact its probably worth you getting a £5 bet on now at the odds of 13 and backing it later again if needed. You can always trade out of it if the game is open.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.2 just after the match turned in-play. As expected the game was farily close with some decent defending from Ireland and some great examples of passing play from the Brazilians. We left the side bet on the goals market alone and advised those who contacted us about it to do so. For those who got in they could have traded out with no loss on under as we usually do by backing at the same stake. Brazil broke the deadlock 67 min's in which is the perfect time, admit a little stressful for us to trade out at 5.8 with £55 for £45 profit. We had a side bet on the 0-0 which was £5 so £40 overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 07/02/08 |
| Time:20.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: African Cup of Nations |
| Teams: Ivory Coast V Egypt - SCORE: 1 - 4 |
Our Recommendation:
The last time these two met was two years ago back on Egyptian soil, with Egypt winning through a dramatically penalty shoot out.
We aren't expecting a similar result here as the cup-holders Egypt, haven't showed the form we feel they need to beat Ivory Coast this time, and as the game is likely to deliver end-to-end, non-stop attacking football we shouldn't see another full time 0-0 result.You can't completely write off Egypt as they did put in a good show against Cameroon in their opening match, so if they can show that level of commitment its likely to be closer than you think. Ivory Coast will be fired up for this encounter as they have gone on record that they will win this to avenge their loss to the Egyptian side two years ago.
We are expecting it to be fairly tight for the first 20 min's or so and because its a cup match anything could happen so don't hold us to the slow start! We will be laying the draw once the odds have drifted a little ideally under 3.5 and trading out after a goal hopefully from Ivory Coast.
Back the 0-0 correct score to cover your trade out liability if your concerned. We are expecting a goal or two so will only jump in on this if there is a lack of goal mouth activity.
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Our Trading Result:
A goal was scored by Egypt as we were waiting for the odds to shortened to 3.5 so we didn't manage to get in. The odds did fluctuate down to 3.4 after the goal and back up to 3.8 so those who got in could have traded this successfully. Those who hung in there would have seen Egypt batter Ivory Coast for the full profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £ N/A
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| Date: 09/02/08 |
| Time:12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Newcastle - SCORE: 4 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
You might of heard us say this before this season but Villa have an excellent record against bottom half teams since O’Neill took over. To put this into perspective they have won 79% of them and lost less than 6% of these games. We all know Villa had a minor blip last week but when this happens they tend to respond well winning 80% of their matches following a loss. To compliment the high probability they will win here, they have also scored in all home games this season so we shouldn't have any worries about a goalless match, especially when Newcastle are currently conceding an average of two goals a game on the road, with only one clean sheet to their name.
We want to back Villa here but with Agbonlahor and Curtis both out for this fixture and the previous H2H throwing up conflicting trends we are going to take the safer option of laying the draw around 3.6, (shorter if possible) and trading out after a goal, ideally from Villa.
The over 2.5 goals market is of interest so we will consider trading on this in-play, we won't get in until things open up.
For those who like the safety consider backing the 0-0 in-play if the game is tight. We won't consider it unless we see this as we are highly confident of a goal or two here.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.5 when we were working on the site earlier this morning. The odds had drifted out to 3.8 before the game so unfortunately some members didn't get in as Owen scored after 4 min's. This also caught us out on the over 2.5 goals bet as we were looking to get in around 10 min's in if the game was open. Anyway after the goal we traded out at 3.8 with £92 for £8 profit across all options. We were going to leave this game alone after trading out on the draw bet, but after about 30 emails asking what's the plan now? we changed our mind and decided to jump in on the goals market. As we missed the market earlier when Owen scored we gave it some time for the odds to drift on over 2.5 goals and got in at 2.24 as a side bet near HT, confident Villa would still score as they have a 100% scoring record at home. In the second half Villa upped the ante and grabbed two goals in a matter of 3 min's for us to take home the money on the goals bet. From the feedback from members it looks like a lot of them got in on the draw bet after Villa equalized, trading out after they look the lead or did what we did on the goals bet.
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Profit made on this trade = £70
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| Date: 09/02/08 |
| Time:15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Everton V Reading - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Last season these teams were only separated by 3 points at the end of the season. This season its a completely different picture with Everton currently in 4th place and Reading 4th from bottom, there isn't much chance they will be in a similar position this year. Everton are currently enjoying a six-match unbeaten run. Reading come into this match without an away win this season and on the back off 6 straight away defeats. Why we like Trading on Reading this season is they are a banker for conceding on the road (averaging 2.75 goals a game).
A common picture this season has been Reading down 1-0 or 2-0 at HT. We are expecting to see this again especially as Everton tend to score fairly early at home managing to do so in just under half their games this season, and against leaky Reading it is more than likely.
We will be backing Everton here and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind we will consider backing them again and trading out when they draw level or take the lead, depending on how they are playing.
We are also interested in trading on the over 2.5 goals market in-play if the game goes as expected.
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Our Trading Result:
What a boring first half! We got in at 1.62 on the Everton back bet. Nothing really happened in the 1st half with lots of scrappy play, which suited Reading. We left the goals market alone and told everyone who contacted us to do the same. Thankfully it opened up a little in the second half and as expected Reading let one in after 62 min's, by way of a Phil Jagielka. This enabled us to trade out at 1.19 with £115 for £40 profit on the Everton win.
That's 7 winners for us today including the 'further trading advice' in the members area.
Members note, just incase you missed it in the members area: we have called it a day and won't be doing the final 3 trades.
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 10/02/08 |
| Time:16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Chelsea V Liverpool - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Chelsea have a superb record over Liverpool when playing at home with 9 of the last 10 being won by Chelsea. Under Benitez, Liverpool just can't seem to beat top 4 teams on the road losing 100% of their encounters. It does look like this will go to the Blues but we are a little concerned that there might be a spanner in the works with Chelsea's recent form against big 4 teams (not winning any of their last eight such Premier League games). So we prefer to consider backing Chelsea as a side trade.
The strongest trend for us is under 2.5 goals, with all of Chelsea's home matches this season against good defensive teams delivering this result and the last 4 home games against Liverpool doing the same.
With Lampard, Drogba, Kalou, Mikel, Carvalho and Terry all to return to the Chelsea side either for this match or in the near future and a Liverpool side that are low on confidence and without some key players including Torres, Alonso and Agger will can't see Liverpool taking any points here so our recommendation is to back under 2.5 goals and trade out once the odds have drifted under 1.3 if possible, and Back Chelsea as a side trade if they are playing well in-play.
As we are bound to get asked if there is an early goal and the odds on the under 2.5 goals bet don't reach 1.3 - back under 2.5 again to give yourself higher average odds so you won't have to wait as long to trade out and you will obviously be able to trade out higher than 1.3.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 goals at 1.62 before kick off. As expected the game delivered few chances that either teams defense couldn't easily cope with. Chelsea were obviously not worth considering as a side trade as it was so evenly matched. The best from Chelsea came 82 min's in but yet again every time either team surged forward, they were immediately closed down, hence the final result. We traded out at 1.22 with £100 by laying under 2.5 goals.
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 10/02/08 |
| Time:19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Catania v Inter Milan - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
We all know Inter have had a bit of a slump since Christmas and with a dose of luck continued their winning ways. But we can't ignore that they still remain unbeaten on their travels since the start of last season.
One thing that defines them is their ability to grind out the win's even when they are not at their best and with a 100% record against teams in the bottom half of the league, we aren't going to question their ability to win here, but we do feel this will be a tough match for them.
We will be backing Inter if the start well and trading out after they take the lead and will be looking to trade on under 2.5 goals.
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Our Trading Result:
Typical Inter, toying with them for 60 min's then scoring two in a matter of 3 min's to put the game out of reach. We backed Inter at 1.8 after Catania settled down and backed under 2.5 at 1.86 as a side trade. Inter were in 2nd gear for most of the first half but weren't really threatened and maintained control. We traded out of the goals bet at 1.3 with £50 for £23 profit if the game finished under 2.5 and had to wait until 64 min's in for then to open the scoring. After the goal we traded out on the Inter win bet at 1.16 with £100 for £60 if Inter managed to win. So £83 profit here. Those who waited a few more min's than us would have much better odds after the second goal.
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Profit made on this trade = £83
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| Date: 11/02/08 |
| Time:20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Arsenal V Blackburn - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Arsenal at home are practically indestructible in their current form which is reflected in the odds on Betfair. Blackburn have an interesting record against Arsenal and the easiest way to explain this is to highlight the Gunners win rate is only 52% over the last 12 years against Blackburn. Recent form is better though with a 3 wins over them last season and a 1-1 draw back in August at Ewood Park. Blackburn seem to have overcome there losing streak and are now 7 games without a loss. Whilst this won't bother Arsenal, they have the form and ability to frustrate them.
We do find it difficult to see Arsenal squandering a chance to improve their lead at the top of the table, particularly at home, where they remain unbeaten this season, so we will be backing Arsenal to win once the odds have drifted a little for better value and trading out once they take the lead. We are a little concerned by Arsenal list of injuries so if we get any feelings this is a bad trade in the first 10 min's or so we will leave this alone.
With Rovers frequently scoring two goals on the road and Arsenal matches averaging 2.6 goals a game at home, it will be worth considering the over 2.5 goals market as a side trade in-play. As usual don't get in if goals don't look likely!
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Our Trading Result:
We wanted to see how Arsenal would start with the team they put out, unfortunately they scored 4 min's in preventing us getting in on either bet before the goal. We decided to evaluate the game and hopefully get in on the goals bet once the odds drifted but with Blackburn putting in a better close to the first half, and little value at the odds available on the back bet for Arsenal, we felt it best to leave this one alone so no profit but more importantly no loss.
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Profit made on this trade = £ N/A
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| Date: 12/02/08 |
| Time:20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Weymouth V Torquay - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
We must be missing something here, there is no way Torquay should be 1.82 to win this match!
Torquay are in great form sitting in 2nd place with 2 games in hand. They have a 100% record against poor home teams like Weymouth this season. The type of football they play is very open and entertaining with goals usually the order of the day, scoring an average of 2.3 on the road and they have hit the back of the net in 93% of games. We have seen them go behind a few times because of they way they play, but they usually turn this around in their favour especially against teams of Weymouth's standard. Weymouth come into this with only 1 win in the last 10 with nothing really positive to highlight other than they showed some promise back in August/September but it has disappeared over the last few months.
We have Torquay on paper as winners here with goals also very likely so we will be backing Torquay and trading out after they take the lead and trading on the over 2.5 goals market in-play if the game is open as expected.
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Our Trading Result:
Its always the way, when the odds look too good there is usually a reason! We got in when we picked the trade at 1.82. The game definitely wasn't as expected in the first half with Weymouth having the better of play. We advised everyone who contacted us and the in-play members to leave the goals market alone for obvious reasons. Torquay didn't really get into the game until 55 min's in where their superior fitness levels showed with the next 35 min's or so be one big onslaught. Unfortunately no goals, lots of missed chances and some good saves from the Weymouth keeper. Feedback from the members, lots seem to have backed the 0-0 to cover their potential loss which would have paid off. We can't admit to this as we didn't do it as we felt Torquay would score so we ended up trading out at 3.55 by laying Torquay with £30 leaving a £5 profit on them winning and a £70 loss if it ended in a draw or Weymouth won. We also layed Weymouth at 14.0 with £80 but as this required a large betting bank and liability which most members wouldn't risk we will report a loss £70
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Profit made on this trade = -£70
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| Date: 13/02/08 |
| Time:19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Uefa Cup |
| Teams: Brann V Everton - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Everton come into this UEFA Cup tie against Norwegian side Brann with great form in this competition. They topped Group A with four wins out of four, which included some excellent results away from Goodison at Nunrberg 0-2 and AZ Alkmaar 2-3, no easy task.
Brann might have won their first league title in 44 years way back in November, but they have not played any competitive football since their last Uefa Cup match on December 3rd and their preparation has been limited to a month of sunshine training in Spain. They didn't really set the qualifying stages alight as they only won 1 of their 4 games but won't be injury depleted like Everton. This is a difficult game to call as the Norwegian Tippeligaen has yet to kick off, so it is difficult to judge what sort of form the Norwegian side are in.
Everton will have the big Nigerian back with a point to prove after going AWOL so a small side bet on him scoring is worth considering but the only real option here is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal, hopefully from Everton. If Brann score first it might be worth trading out and getting back in once Everton equalize, obviously this wil depend on what we are seeing.
If the game is tight jump in on the 0-0 correct score to cover your trade out liability.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw a little time in-play at 3.55. The game was tight early on with no real chances until 30+ min's in. Everton looked a little nervous in defense and were missing Arteta's creativity. This improved in the second half and they finally took the lead through a leon Osman goal, for us to trade out at 7.0 with £47 for £50 profit on the draw bet if the game finished in a win. We did get a little concerned in the 1st half this might finish 0-0 so put £10 on at 6.6 with a view to back it again later on but the goal came so an overall profit of £40.
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 14/02/08 |
| Time:20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Uefa Cup |
| Teams: Slavia Prague V Tottenham - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Slavia Prague would have had their fingers crossed when the draw was made, not to meet an English side, as they have a poor record against Premiership teams (1 win from the last 6 meetings). When Tottenham's name was pulled out of the hat, they definitely wouldn't have been cheering as they lost 1-0, home and away to them last season.
Its not only Spurs who have a record of defeating Slavia. They lost 4-2 to Sevilla when Ramos was in charge last season. So with a manager who knows how to beat them, and a completely re-invigorate Spurs team who in our opinion are better now than last season, we are likely to see a Spurs win here. Especially as Salvia's domestic league has been in winter hibernation since December, meaning they haven’t played any competitive football of late.
Whilst we feel Spurs will win, its a Cup match so we prefer the option to lay the draw and trade out after a goal, hopefully from Spurs.
We do feel Spurs might score early so trading on the over 2.5 goals market in-play could be an option if the game is open.
Slavia held Arsenal to a goalless draw last year at home (then lost 7-0 at the Emirates) so if the game is tight back the 0-0 correct score for your trade out liability in-play.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw earlier today at 3.65 and didn't have to wait long for a goal, 4 min's in fact which is so common these days for Spurs. They definitely had the better of play whilst we were listening (couldn't watch tonight as we all had to entertain our partners, Valentines day if anyone had forgotten) but after Robbie Keane scored the second goal 30 min's in we turned off and focused on eating. We traded out after the goal at 5.4 with £65 for £33 profit. As we weren't watching the game we left the goals market alone but we are sure most of you would have got in as the goals came with little effort and there could have easily been more.
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Profit made on this trade = £33
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| Date: 15/02/08 |
| Time:19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Eredivisie |
| Teams: Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam - SCORE: 6 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This trade has taken us all day to decide as we couldn't agree which match to choose. Porto look good on paper but have had a few dodgy results of late on the road, but the odds are good value. FC Koln's odds are to short as they only have about a 35 % of winning, with the draw very likely so we liked the idea of laying them. But in the end the safest option has to be backing over 2.5 goals on this match. 9 of the last 10 H2H meetings with Ajax at home have delivered this result (the one exception had two goals) with the average score line delivering 5 goals a game.
It is pretty obvious everyone else feels the same, hence the odds of 1.4 which are currently available, so our recommendation is to back over 2.5 goals by stagger your stake, getting on a little at a time to give yourself higher average odds, then trading out hopefully after a goal.
We will also consider backing Ajax inplay if we can get more value. Over 1.5 would be great value, considering they have won the last 11 meetings when playing at home, and again trading out after they take the lead.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.41 with £25 and another £25 on at 1.51 a few min's before the 1st goal so we only managed to get half our total stake on. We regrettable then traded out for a £12 profit if the game finished over 2.5 goals. The reason we say regrettably is a plethora of goals followed with 6 in the first half alone. From the feedback we got back most members let the bet run or put the rest of the stake on after the second goal.
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Profit made on this trade = £12
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| Date: 16/02/08 |
| Time:15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA Cup |
| Teams: Liverpool v Barnsley - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Barnsley are a good home team but are terrible on the road. Their last away league win was back in September, since then they’ve suffered nine defeats in twelve games. There is obviously a large gap between these two in ranking and when there is this much of a disparity the home team has won 100% of the time over the last 3 years. This is obviously reflected in the odds and we would only consider backing liverpool if they went behind in the early stages, so our focus is going to be on the goals market. Historically the Red usually win these matches by two goals or more (77% of the time) so we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trading out after a goal. It might pay to stager your staking for better value as we feel Barnsley will take 30 min's or so to be broken down.
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Our Trading Result:
We staggered our stake as highlighted above with the view to get it all on before 30 min's and had 2.16 matched at average odds. Please accept our apologies that we got the time of the goal wrong by 1 min and 36 seconds, we will try and be more accurate next time! After the goal we traded out at 1.62 with £133 for £33 across both options as we weren't that confident that we would see another 2 goals.
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Profit made on this trade = £33
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| Date: 16/02/08 |
| Time:17.15hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA Cup |
| Teams: Man Utd V Arsenal - SCORE: 4 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
These two are the most successful club's in FA Cup history with a combined record of 21 trophies from 35 finals. Ferguson has one up on Wenger as he has won five of them over Wenger's four, but Utd will need to deliver a better performance than they did in the recent derby match to get something here! Its a tough call to choose a winner and we wouldn't want to make it, so we are following the stats as usual with the most dominant trend when these two meet being lack of goals. 88% of Arsenal's H2H meetings against Utd away from home have finished under 2.5 goals. When they have met in a Cup match its a similar picture with around 70% of games having the same result. We don't think it will be goalless especially with Rooney Adebayor and Ronaldo playing so don't wait for ages to trade out.
Ideally back under 2.5 goals and trade out once the odds have drifted a little or if the game is tight you should be able to stick it out until 30 min's in. If you get caught out consider backing under 2.5 again for higher average odds so you will be able to trade out sooner.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.71 on the under 2.5 goals bet. Quite obviously it wasn't going to be low scoring from watching the first 10 min's. We traded out at 1.45 with £118 for £17 profit on both options, a short time before Rooney scored. Hopefully most members took notice of the 'don't wait for ages' comment in the pre match preview. Those who contacted us, we advised to get out at 1.5 so it looks like those who were concerned got out in time. What a turnaround by Utd from last weeks derby match!
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Profit made on this trade = £17
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| Date: 17/02/08 |
| Time:14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Kilmarnock V Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This one shouldn't need much of an explanation but here we go. This match up pitches 2nd from bottom against league leaders in what will be a sure test of character for the Killie. They haven't beaten Rangers when playing at home in the last 17 matches and you have to turn time back to 1994 for the last Killie home win. To support the likely away win, goals are also very common when these two meet. You will probably be surprised to know Kilmarnock have managed to score in 80% of the H2H matches and have opened the score on quite a few occasions but usually end up losing but have managed 6 draws over the years.
This game is a must win for Rangers as Celtic are will only be 1 point behind if they fail to win here, so we will be backing Rangers to win and backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value, and trading out after a goal and when Rangers take the lead . As usual consider waiting for the odds to drift for value on the goals bet, and stager your staking if this is your preferred option.
We haven't decided which is our main bet yet but we are leaning toward the goals at the moment.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals inplay at average odds of 2.06 and had actually forgot we had backed Rangers at 1.42 earlier with £50 (we were putting on quite a few bets at the time). Any way Rangers were playing as expected at took the lead after 25 min's for us to trade out at 1.56 on the goals bet with £132 for £30 across both options and 1.14 on the back bet with £50 for £13 profit if Rangers won.
Nice to see the Fiorentina game also went our way in the 'Further trading opportunities section'.
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Profit made on this trade = £43
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| Date: 17/02/08 |
| Time:16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA Cup |
| Teams: Preston V Portsmouth - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Having already knocked out Derby from this competition Preston go into the game with nothing to lose, hoping for another Premiership scalp. They aren't unfamiliar with this stage of the competition as they have been here 3 times in the last 5 years. Historically no Premiership side has lost to a Championship side at this stage of the competition in 13 years and with the ranking difference between these two we can't see an upset here even if Preston feel they can. To support Pompey they have been winning their away games this season and frequently preventing the home team from scoring. When this is complimented by the fact that in 40% of Preston's home games they have failed to score we see a Pompey win here.
As the draw price is better than expected we have chosen to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal ideally from Pompey rather than back Pompey outright, plus it should be slightly safer!
Please consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability either before or in-play, if your worried it might finish scoreless. The better option might be to put a bit on now then get the rest on if the game is tight so it doesn't eat into your profits.
If the game is open the over 2.5 goals market should be considered as a side trade in-play, trading out after a goal.
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Our Trading Result:
Late goals, we hate them, that's two matches in two days with last minute goals.
Anyway we layed the draw at 3.35 a short time in- play and backed the 0-0 with £30 at average odds 7.8 for £194 cover for our trade out liability. Despite a few reasonable shots in the first half we weren't inspired to back over 2.5 goals but those who did and contacted us, we advised to trade out at HT for no loss if the game finished under 2.5 as we usually do in this situation. The game picked up and become end to end in the last 25 min's, but as there were no goals we traded out at our usual 1.8 with £65 leaving a small profit of £33 on the win, and a liability of £183 which was covered by the 0-0 bet. We chose to leave a profit on the win as they both looked like scoring (the idea for this was to cover all scenarios). So a small token profit of £3.
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Profit made on this trade = £3
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| Date: 18/02/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Championship |
| Teams: Bristol City V Crystal Palace - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Bristol City currently find themselves in 3rd place, 2 points behind leaders Stoke, but with a game in hand. So if they win this match they will be in pole position, and with decent home form since the end of November its going to be a tough challenge for Palace to take the points here.
We actually thought a few weeks ago Palace would be top by now as they had gone 15 games without a loss and were looking really sharp. Unfortunately for them this went pear shape in on the 19th Jan after beating Bristol 2-0 at home. They are now on a winless run of 4 with 3 of them being losses. From what we have seen the players look tired but they will take confidence in that they have already beaten City this season so they could do it again.
Its a tough call here, but there are a few things that stand out when these two meet. Firstly the away team has never won, and we have about 20 trends pointing to under 2.5 goals but a strong possibility of a first half goal. After a long discussion we feel City will score in the first half and at best Palace might grab a draw, so we will be laying the draw around 3.35 and trading out after a goal, hopefully from City. We will also consider backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trade out after a goal or at HT if no goal comes. We will give it 10 min's to decide if its worth getting in on. If your not sure ask. Please also consider backing 0-0 for our trade out liability, hopefully we won't need it!
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Our Trading Result:
We got in at 3.2 before kick off on the lay bet. The first 15 min's were fairly lively so we put a £25 bet on over 2.5 goals at 3.25. We opted for the smaller side bet as there really hadn't been any decent shots on goal at the time. We advised the inplay members and those who contacted to do so as well. Then the game went flat and we regretted the decision and traded out just before HT at 5.8 with £25 for no loss on under 2.5 as we usually do and advised above. Palace started the second half well and managed to grab the lead 61 min's in by way of a Lee Hills goal. We gave it a little time for the odds to drift as we had put £25 on the 0-0 as the game wasn't going as expected. We traded out after the goal and Bristol made the strategic change and brought Byfield on which concerned us, so we managing to get 4.6 matched with £69 for £30 profit if the game finished in a win and £27 if it finished in a draw. So overall £2 profit.
We did lay over 2.5 goals after the goal and advised those who asked us about it to do so, but as its not in our preview we won't report the profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £2
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| Date: 19/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Liverpool V Inter Milan - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Liverpool confidence domestically must have hit rock bottom by now with the recent lost against Barnsley. Thank god they have have had a better time of it in the Champions league and with it being the only thing left that the Reds have a chance in, they should be fired up for this one (hopefully). They have managed 2 Champions League finals in three years and have managed to out smart and out play some of the best sides in Europe to get there. We personally feel you will see a surprisingly strong performance from Liverpool tonight.
When it comes to Inter domestically they are superb but can't seem to replicate this in Europe. You might be suprised to hear that Inter have not won a knockout-stage away legs in 5 years to a team ranked below them, and have a bad habit of doing just enough to draw.
This one is a close call and is likely to be a tight match. We feel their will be a goal, but probably not more.
Our preferred option here is to lay the draw around 3.1 and trade out after a goal.
We will also be backing under 2.5 goals as a side trade and trading out ideally before a goal, if its end to end get out and don't risk getting caught out. If a goal come before you trade out consider backing it again to trade out earlier or wait for the odds to drift.
Consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability if your concerned no goals are coming.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.1 and backed under 2.5 goals at 1.58. Not too much was happening apart from a Materazzi getting sent off after 30 mins, but definately a better game than the Chelsea one! We traded out on the goals bet at 1.23 with the weight of money on the under 2.5 goals for £16 profit. We also had £10 on the 0-0 correct score at 7.6. It got to the usual trade out point of 1.8 but it came a little early as the starting odds were shorter than normal for us so we felt their still could be a goal so opted for some profit left on the win especially with the advantage of an extra man for the Reds so we traded out with £65 for a £35 profit on the win and a £158 loss if it ended in a draw plus we had a little safety on the 0-0. So not ideal but a profit of £41. The feedback we got from lots of members was they waited it out, so well done if you did and to be honest it was a decent decision with Inter down to 10 men and Crouch and Pennant coming on to influence the game.
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Profit made on this trade = £41
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| Date: 19/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Olympiacos v Chelsea - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Its ninth time lucky for Olympiacos as they have finally qualified for the
knockout stages. Chelsea on the other hand have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League in three of the last four seasons. We might be in for a bit of a shock here as Chelsea have only won 30% of their away legs at this stage previously and have yet to keep a clean sheet. On a positive note they have managed to score though in 70% of matchups. We have been discussing laying Chelsea here as the odds don't stack up but without watching the game for 10 min's or so we aren't willing to commit to this before kick off.
We prefer to give it some time inplay (10-15 min's) to consider the lay bet on Chelsea and if they are holding their own we will lay the draw instead, which is more than likely what we will do unless Olympiacos are all over them.
We will also consider trading on over 2.5 goals in-play as we can't see it being goalless especially with Chelsea's record of conceding and scoring.
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Our Trading Result:
We got in about 15 min's in and as it was fairly even, we opted to lay the draw at this time. We can't remember Olympiacos having a decent shot on goal in the first half, definitely not what you expect from a home team with their record. We advised those who contacted us about the goals bet to leave it alone, for obvious reasons as we did. At HT most members felt we had chose the wrong trade and laying the Chelsea win was the better option as they felt it would end in a stalemate, we opted to wait until the odds shortened to 1.8 against their recommendations, and have to admit we had it wrong chaps sorry. We traded out at 1.8 with £100 and probably would have got out at 2.0 as Chelsea were content playing pass the parcel for 20 min's before hand, with no real urgency to score. Highly frustrating when you are trying to make so money. In the end we did make the right decision and layed Chelsea at 3.8 with £118. So we ended up with no profit or loss. A word to the wise if you think its going to be goalless don't forget to back the 0-0. As we didn't mention it in advance would could do it! Talk about making hard work for yourself.
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Profit made on this trade = £0
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| Date: 20/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Lyon V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
This isn't going to be a walk in the park for Utd as Lyon are a very good team especially at home. Their record against home teams of Lyon's ability in the Champions league isn't ideal, as they have managed to only win 8% of these games. There are some signs that lyon are having a few issues at the moment and they have had fractured performances recently not to dissimilar to Utd's recent blip.
The most recent H2H meetings between these two were open and end to end, delivering over 2.5 goals, so hopefully we will see a similar result here.
Personally we feel this one will likely end in a draw and with all things considered give the game a 70% chance of delivering over 2.5 goals, so laying the draw will be the better call.
We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. It shouldn't matter who scores but ideally Man Utd as the odds will drift a little further.
We will feel fairly confident of goals here especially if Karim Benzema starts for Lyon and Ronaldo and Rooney for Utd, so will consider a small side trade on the over 2.5 goals market in-play. It might take 30 min's or so for things to open up, if its tight leave the side trade alone.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at
3.15, great game to watch and open with some good chances in the first half, with the best coming from Rooney. Basically exactly what we were expecting to see just slightly less goals. We also had a side bet on the goals market as the game was open. We got in after Rooney nearly scored putting £25 on over 2.5 goals at 4.1. Those who got in on the goals bet couldn't have lost either way if they traded out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 goals or stuck in like we did. We didn't bother backing over 2.5 again as we highlight in the top tips area, because our starting odds were high, and opted to give it 15 min's for a goal and only risk £25. The 1st goal came from Benzema for lyon and enabled us to trade out at 3.2 on the goals bet with £32 for £7 profit either way. We also traded out at average odds on the draw bet of 3.85 with £80 for £20 profit on the win and £13 if the game finished in a draw. We opting to stager our trade out as the odds didn't drift much initially, as everyone expected Utd to equalize. Those with nerves of steal could have got 5.2 match before Utd equalized. So £20 profit overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £20
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| Date: 21/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Uefa Cup |
| Teams: Atl Madrid v Bolton - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Atletico have shown poor form in the Primera Division recently, taking just four points from their past five matches. But in European competition their home form is very impressive so despite losing 1-0 in the reverse fixture we should see a home win here, especially as Bolton have only won a single game on the road this season, conceding an average of just under 2 goals a game.
Some people are a little concerned that Atletico have lost their influential forward Sergio Agüero for this match after receiving a two match ban in the Bolton game, for the Red card he received. But we are confident the public ear bashing from their president Enrique Cerezo immediately after that match has refocused them, and if the Spaniards play to their full potential, then it will be hard to see Bolton stopping them here.
We will be backing Atl Madrid and trading out after the take the lead. If Bolton score first we will consider backing them again and trade out after they equalize (we will wait until they are showing signs of equalizing).
A small side bet on the 0-0 correct score will give those who are concerned some protection.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed
Alt Madrid at 1.65 before kick off and backed the 0-0 correct score with £10 at 11.0 to give us a bit of security, and as we felt Bolton wouldn't score before kick off this meant we were safe should anything but a Bolton goal be scored. Bolton delivered a good display of football and played to their strengths. Atletico basically played Bolton's game and why they were playing the long ball in the area against a team that is dominant in this situation we have no idea. The highlight of the game for us was when Maxi tried to perform an overhead kick and just fell on to his ass without making any contact with the ball. As the game progressed we put another £10 on the 0-0 at 4.6 to give us £20 at average odds 7.8. We let the back bet run so lost £100 on this but traded out at 1.14 on the 0-0 correct score bet with £130 for £117 profit should the game finish goalless or £100 should a goal be scored. So it worked out in the end.
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Profit made on this trade = £17
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| Date: 22/02/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 2 |
| Teams: Mainz v Carl Zeiss Jena - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
2nd from top Mainz 05 meet rock bottom Carl Zeiss Jena in this encounter. Everything points to goals here with Mainz scoring an average of 2.6 goals a game at home and Jena conceding 2.5 goals a game on the road, with the average score at the end of 90 min's over the last 10 matches delivering over 4 goals a game. If this isn't enough to convince you the last 7 meetings between these two have also finished over 2.5 goals.
Jena have improved a little lately on the road (only 1 loss in the last 6) and might take a while to breakdown, but when they play teams in the top 4 the result is usually the same. They lose and concede goals.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trading out after a goal. It might pay to stager your stake for better value.
(i.e. £25 and 1.9, £25 at 2.4, £25 at 3....)
If Mainz are playing as expected we will consider them at odds over 1.7 as a side trade.
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Our Trading Result:
We only managed to get £75 matched at average odds of 2.15 before Mainz scored the first goal. Jena were trying hard and it was a little closer than usual which then opened up after the goal. We traded out at 1.62 with £75 for a £40 profit if the game finished over 2.5 goals. We decided to get the £25 we didn't get on earlier on at around 2.4 in the 2nd half but unfortunately we didn't get our bet matched before another goal came to take Mainz 2 up which was followed 4 min's later bu a Jena goal to put an end to the bet for those who were waiting for 3 goals. Those who got on the back bet for Mainz would have profited as they lead at 2 point in the game.
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 23/02/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Portsmouth V Sunderland - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Sunderland managed to beat Portsmouth in the reverse fixture back in January, but we are not giving this much weight as Pompey put out a weak team that was hampered by the African Cup of Nations and injuries. This time they are playing at home, where Sunderland have never beaten them and the team Harry will be fielding will be much stronger.
This season all but two of Sunderland's points have come from home games and with 9 straight losses in a row on their travels, we don't feel Sunderland with be able to do the double over a reinvigorated Pompey.
We will be backing Pompey over 1.7 if possible and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind in the early stages we will consider backing them again so we can trade out after they equalize.
We will also consider a side trade on over 2.5 goals in-play if the game is open and there looks like goals are coming, trading out after a goal.
You shouldn't need any insurance on the 0-0 as Sunderland are conceding an average of 2.5 goals a game on their travels and haven't kept a clean sheet yet. Obviously if you feel this is going to end in a stalemate consider it in-play.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed Pompey at 1.72 and for the first 25 min's were regretting the decision as they look half a sleep. For obvious reasons we left the goal market alone and advised those who contacted us about it to also do so. We even chose to put £10 on the 0-0 correct score. The last 15 min's of the 1st half Pompey started to get into the game which restored some of our confidence. Harry brought on Kanu on 64 min's in so we started to feel a goal was coming, 5 min's later Defoe converted a penalty to give us the trade out odds we wanted. We traded out at 1.17 with £125 for £50 profit if Pompey won and £25 if it ended in a draw or Sunderland won. So overall £40 profit. |
Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 23/02/08 |
| Time: 17.15hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Newcastle Utd V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 1 - 5 |
Our Recommendation:
With Kevin Keegan the savior of the toon yet to work his magic at St James' Park and with rumors the club is up for sale it won't do the players any favour's coming into this match. They are now 9 games without a win and have lost 88% of games this season to top half teams.
Whilst we feel he is the man for the job its going to take the rest of the season to sort things out and playing a Utd team who are so in form and chasing 3 points to catch Arsenal up, its a tough ask for them to walk away with anything here. The price to back Utd is short, so we will consider it as a side bet inplay if they are looking dominant. We prefer to chase a little more profit by supporting over 2.5 goals. Utd have scored at least 2 goals in the last 6 encounters and if you can remember last months 6-0 white wash, it should be safe to say Utd will score, and with Utd only stopping 30% of teams from scoring when they are away from Old Trafford we won't be supervised if Newcastle grab one.
So we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play staggering our stake for better value and trading out after a goal.
We will consider the side trade on Utd in-play (they have won 58% of away games, so make sure they are dominant before you get in and chase a better price, or if Newcastle score 1st and fairly early it might pay to back Utd and trade out after they equalize). Don't get in if Newcastle are holding their own.
A few members 'Utd fans' have asked us to highlight backing the 0-0 for a small bet say £10, and trading out around 30 min's in as Utd tend to take a while to score on the road. Obviously this eats into your profit but on a positive note it covers you if no goals are scored early.
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Our Trading Result:
We got out over 2.5 goals bet matched at average odds of 2.26. We didn't feel the 1st half would be goalless but to support our members recommendation we backed the 0-0 at 16. We traded out of the 0-0 bet 25 min's in at 11 for a £50 profit if the game finished 0-0 and no profit if the game had any goals. As we traded out earlier than advised we will report a £10 loss for this bet as most people seemed to have got caught out. Our plan was to trade out of the 0-0 then back Utd to win once the odds were over 1.6 if possible. Unfortunately we didn't get our win bet on Utd as Rooney scored a little too soon, but his goal did enable us to trade out at 1.64 with £120 for a profit of £47. So overall we ended £37 up.
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Profit made on this trade = £37
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| Date: 24/02/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Reading V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Reading are on a bad run, 7 losses in a row, now 3rd from bottom and very likely to be playing Championship football next season unless they dramatically turn things around. Villa are having a much better run of it, with a slip up at Fulham recently but other than that 9 games without a loss. Reading have conceded a goal in 89% of their games this season and only scored once in the last 6 matches. Villa have hit the back of the net in all of the last 10 matches and averaged 2 goals a game. On paper Villa have been the away draw master this season with 40% of their games ending in a stalemate, but with Reading's current form and the fact they have only drawn 9% of games at home over the last few seasons we feel this will likely end with Villa taking 3 points.
We have decided to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal as we are practically guaranteed one, hopefully from Villa. If Reading score first, Villa will likely equalize so we would advise trading out before they do and get back in on the draw bet at the lower odds after they do. We won't consider this if its in the second half.
If the game is open its worth considering a small side trade on the goals market in-play and if Villa are dominant a side trade on them to win should be considered.
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Our Trading Result:
We had a good feeling about this one and boy did it pay off. We layed the draw at 3.4 a short time in, backed Villa at 2.42 as they were obviously going to score with Reading making the same old mistakes and backed over 2.5 goals at 3.1 before the penalty. We were a little shocked by Barry fluffing the penalty but were confident a goal would come soon. Just before HT Ashley Young delivered to put Villa ahead and enable us to trade out on all 3 bets. We got out on the draw at 4.6, the goals bet at 2.32 and the back bet at 1.39 for two likely ending profits £81 if Villa won and £32 if it ended in a draw or Reading won.
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Profit made on this trade = £81
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| Date: 25/02/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Manchester City V Everton - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Since Man City's superb performance against Utd 2 weeks ago they have had 15 days to induct new signing Benjani and prepare for this encounter. Saying this we aren't sure how to judge what's going on at Man City this season or what we will see from them. At home they started the season off with 9 straight wins and now are 4 games without one. Then they perform their socks off against Utd. We are more confident we know what we will see from the ever improving Everton team, who have haven't lost since the turn of the new year and are not sitting in 4th place. Their previous away form to top half teams has been pretty poor, but they are in the best away form we can remember with only 1 loss in the last 8. Its a tough call here with the most dominant trends coming from the under 2.5 goals market but with all things considered we feel this trend will be bucked tomorrow and will be laying under 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal by either laying over 2.5 or backing under 2.5 goals.
If you want a bit of security just in case a goal doesn't come, consider backing the 0-0 with a small stake (you won't need much as your liability is only around £65)
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Our Trading Result:
We layed under 2.5 goals at 1.55 a few min's in-play with £100 and put a small side bet of £7 on the 0-0 as highlighted above. As expected the game bucked the trend and Yakubu opened the scoring after 30 min's for Everton to take the lead. Whilst we would have personally waited for another here, as the game looked like another one was coming, we traded out after the 1st goal as members have previously asked us to keep it simple as its hard to make this decision. (thanks for the 50 emails highlighting you waited for the second goal). So we traded out at 1.9 by backing under 2.5 with £79 giving us £15 profit if the game finished under 2.5 and £20 if it finished over 2.5 goals. So overall either £8 or £13 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £8
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| Date: 26/02/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Juventus V Torino - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Juventus are in decent form at home without a loss in the last 10. They have been scoring well (average 2 goals a game) and almost bullet proof in defense with 8 clean sheets in those matches. They had a wake up call at the weekend where they lost away to 2nd from bottom Reggina which will probably have a positive influence on this result as they want to close that gap on Roma. Torino are this seasons draw specialists with 58% of their games ending in this result. They have shown improvements recently and are now 5 games without a loss. If Juventus take the lead they tend to hold it (over 90% probability) and if Torino take the lead it will very likely end in a draw.
We feel this should go to Juventus as they have never been beaten by Torino at home and have won 5 of the last 6 encounters. The price isn't too bad either.
We will be backing Juventus in-play as we want to see how they start after the loss at the weekend. Then ideally backing them to win. If we aren't completely confident we will lay the draw and trade out after a goal.
Those who want to cover the 0-0 correct score please do. We probably won't.
Please also consider backing over 2.5 goals inplay as we are expecting a goal around 30-45 min's in. Don't get in if its tight.
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Our Trading Result:
This one didn't go too well for us. We back Juventus at 1.82 inplay when they have a decent attacking spell. The game was closer than expected pre-match but we also felt that both teams looked good on the break so put a £25 bet on over 2.5 goals in-play at 3.45. It got to HT so we traded out at 5.7 on the goals bet with no loss on under 2.5 goals as we usually do on the goals bet. We stayed in on the back bet as we still felt Juve would score but finally decided to trade out with £30 at 2.98 before the odds drifted quickly in the last 10-15 min's. This left us a £21 profit if Juve managed to take the win and a £70 loss if it ended in a draw or Torino won. We left the 0-0 market alone as we highlighted we would probably leave it alone in the preview, so unfortunately a loss.
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Profit made on this trade = £70
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| Date: 27/02/08 |
| Time: 20.05hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA Cup |
| Teams: Middlesbrough v Sheffield Utd - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Middlesbrough are lucky to be having this rematch because in the last meeting Utd deserved to go through, hopefully they will have their head in the game this time. They have been showing improving form of late and if you excluding their slip up at the weekend they haven't lost in 8 games so if they bring some of that form with them should walk away winners here.
Why we like this match is, supported but Boro's form they also have a strong home record when playing in this competition. With no losses in the past decade and a 70% win rate, winning all matches against teams below them. We should also see goals here as they have managed to score in all of their last 10, with 9 of them having 1st half goals. We are also likely to see Utd on the score sheet as Boro have conceded a goal in 77% of these matches so complimented by their win rate, +2.5 goals is likely.
Our preferred option here are to lay the draw and trade out after a goal, as its a Cup match ideally from Boro. We will also be looking to get in on the over 2.5 goals market in-play as a side trade due to the history of goals in these Boro home FA Cup games. Wait until it opens up or stager your stake for better value.
I know we said it yesterday but cover the 0-0 for your trade out liability if you like the safety. We probably won't unless it looks tight.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw about 10 min's in at 3.6 as we got caught up. A short time after we felt this was similar to the last meeting and backed the 0-0 at 7.4 with £15 and felt we would put some more on if the game stayed the same. After a couple of decent corners and shots from Boro we felt we might see a goal which was reflected in the stats so backed over 2.5 with £25 at 3.3. Unfortunately nothing really happened so before we traded out on the goals bet we backed the 0-0 at 4.9 with £20 giving us £162 cover for our trade out liability. We traded out as usually on the over 2.5 goals bet with £25 leaving no loss on under 2.5 and the liability on over. The second half was fairly uneventful and we traded out on the draw bet at the usually 1.8. We did make a little bit of a faux pas on our calculation of our trade out liability so ended up using £123 to trade out leaving a loss on all options if a goal was scored and a 40 pence profit if it ended 0-0. So basically £0 profit as we don't report the pennies.
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Profit made on this trade = £0
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| Date: 28/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Dutch Cup |
| Teams: Feyenoord V Zwolle - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
With what we have seen of Zwolle recently we could be in for an upset here, especially if Feyenoord continue to have problems defending set pieces. We can't criticise their scoring ability especially at home (2.3 goals a game) but defensively they have been making some real howlers recently. Second division team Zwolle is challenging promotion. They are just behind the leader RKC. Last week they scored seven goals against a defensively good team. Their recent form is very impressive so we won't be surprised if they end up scoring a few. The price is short on over 2.5 goals but with this being a cup game it make sense not to back either team and stick to what looks the most probably result.
We will ideally be backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value and trading out after a goal. If it doesn't move fairly quickly we will look to lay under 2.5 instead. If we don't see a goal before HT we will probably trade out with no loss on under 2.5
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Our Trading Result:
There was no drift early on so we layed under 2.5 at 3.35 with £50 and the plan was to get shorter odds with the rest of the stake after another 10 min's or so. Feyenoord scored shortly after so we traded out at 6.8 with £25 this gave us a fairly even spread across both options. The members who missed this and contacted us we advised to wait for the odds to drift to under 4 and get in. About 35 min's in the odd returned to where we got in before so we put the other £50 on at 3.25 this time and were reward by another goal just before HT, this time from Zwolle to trade out again at 6.8 with £15 as we felt Feyenoord would score again. So an over all profit of £57.
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Profit made on this trade = £57
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| Date: 29/02/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 2 |
| Teams: Mgladbach v Erzgebirge - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Top place Mönchengladbach take on 4th from bottom Erzgebirge and if the last time these met is anything to go by we should be in for an exciting game. These two haven't met at Mgladbach's home ground yet but with their home form we can't see Erzgebirge walking away with anything, especially as they have lost 9 straight away games, conceding no less than 2 goals in each. But they should score as defensively Mgladbach have conceded in 8 of their last 10 at home.
We like both the over 2.5 goals market and the home win here but we might be hampered by the little amount of money on the goals market so will have to stick to backing Mgladbach and trading out after they take the lead. We will probably give it until 60 min's for a goal. If Erzgebirge score first and its early it will be worth considering backing Mgladbach again at higher odds to hopefully trade out after they equalize.
If the money picks up on the over 2.5 goals market (around 6 time our stake in the boxes on Betfair) we will look to trade this in-play.
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Our Trading Result:
We gave it a few min's before getting in at 1.47 on the back bet. Early on we weren't 100% a goal was coming soon so decided to leave the over 2.5 goals market alone even though there was enough money there. Those who got in would have made a profit as one came 33 min's in. After the 1st goal we traded out at 1.19 with £101 for £26 profit should Mgladbach win.
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Profit made on this trade = £26
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