Traders Advantage Results

December 2007 trading advice given

Profit for Month = £1023

Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed results table below)

Date
Teams
Score
Profit
01/12/07
Celtic V Hearts
1 - 1
£52
01/12/07
H Berlin v Leverkusen
0 - 2
£35
01/12/07
Reading v Middlesborough
1 - 1
£30
02/12/07
Parma v Empoli
1 - 0
£48
02/12/07
Valencia v Ath Bilbao
0 -3
-£115
03/12/07
Manchester Utd V Fulham
2 - 0
£70
04/12/07
AC Milan V Celtic
1 - 0
£46
05/12/07
Osasuna V Sevilla
1 - 1
£78
06/12/07
Empoli V Juventus
2 - 1
-£50
08/12/07
Everton V Fulham
3 - 0
£58
08/12/07
Reading V Liverpool
3 - 1
£3
09/12/07
Middlesborough V Arsenal
2 - 1
£35
09/12/07
Tottenham V Man City
2 - 1
£39
09/12/07
Blackburn V West Ham
0 - 1
- £100
10/12/07
Swansea v Horsham
6 - 2
£56
11/12/07
Real Madrid V Lazio
3 - 1
£53
12/12/07
Barcelona v Stuttgart
3 - 1
£36
14/12/07
Energie Cottbus V Hannover 96
5 - 1
£47
15/12/07
Wigan V Blackburn
5 - 3
-£50
15/12/07
Fulham V Newcastle
0 - 0
-£80
16/12/07
Liverpool V Manchester Utd
0 - 1
£39
16/12/07
Parma V Reggina
3 - 0
£75
17/12/07
FC Köln V Kaiserslautern
2 - 1
£48
18/12/07
Man City V Tottenham
0 - 2
-£50
19/12/07
Chelsea V Liverpool
2 - 0
£65
20/12/07
AZ Alkmaar V Everton
2 - 3
£47
22/12/07
Arsenal V Tottenham
2 - 1
£37
22/12/07
Aston Villa V Man City
1 - 1
£32
22/12/07
Almeria V Getafe
0 - 2
£39
23/12/07
Inter Milan V AC Milan
2 - 1
£97
23/12/07
Aberdeen V Rangers
1 - 1
£49
23/12/07
Blackburn V Chelsea
1 - 0
£34
26/12/07
Tottenham V Fulham
5 - 1
£32
26/12/07
Everton V Bolton
2 - 0
£47
26/12/07
Man City V Blackburn
2 - 1
£24
29/12/07
Tottenham V Reading
6 - 4
£42
29/12/07
Celtic V Gretna
3 - 0
£26
30/12/07
VVV V Ajax
2 - 2
£28
30/12/07
PSV V Breda
2 - 0
£23

 

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Trades Completed in Detail

Date: 01/12/07
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Clydesdale Bank Premier
Teams:Celtic V Hearts - SCORE: 1- 1
Our Recommendation:
Celtic sit on top of the Scottish Premier League (which isn't much of a surprise to most people) having won 10 of their 13 games so far this season. They are full of confidence after beaten Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday, giving them a good chance of qualifying for the Champions League knockout stages.

Back in August Celtic thrashed Hearts 5-0 but did manage to get knocked out of the Scottish Cup by them, so it doesn't always go Celtics way, not that another League Cup is much of a motivator to Celtic.

Looking back over the last 15 meeting at Tynecastle, Hearts have managed to win 26% of the meeting but this season Celtic are particularly strong and we feel Scott McDonald and Aiden McGeady, will cause Hearts far too much trouble for this game to end in an upset.

We will be backing Celtic around 1.88 and trading out after they take the lead.

5 of the last 6 matches between these two have had 3 or more goals, so the +2.5 goals market is also of interest as a side bet in-play.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on earlier this morning at 2.04 and got in on the goals bet in-play at 2.36 with £50 about 20 min's in. Neither team were at their best today, definitely not what we usually see when these teams meet. We decided to trade out of the goals bet at half time with £35 for a £15 loss if the game finished under. Celtic upped their game in the 2nd half taking the lead after 73 min's for us to trade out at 1.2 with £170 for £67 profit across all options, giving us a £52 profit overall



Profit made on this trade = £
52


Date: 01/12/07
Time: 14.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga 1
Teams: H Berlin v Leverkusen - SCORE: 0- 2
Our Recommendation:
Hertha at home this season have been very good, winning 5 of their 7 matches and losing just 1. On the road they have been appalling so lucky for them they are at home today.  Leverkusen are in good form, 5th place in the league with three wins in their past three league games. In two of those they scored 4 goals which might have been against Duisburg and Bielefeld, but I doubt Leverkusen were complaining. Leverkusen are a tough proposition for Hertha and looking at recent results they won their last two games in Berlin 3-2 and 5-1.

We are not 100% confident of picking a winner here so we will focus on the strongest trend, the goals market. The last 9 times these teams have met there has been 3 goals or more and the last 4 with Hertha at home have had at least 4 goals.

So we will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play as it a little short at the moment and trading out after a goal or two.

Our Trading Result:
We got in 20 min's into the game at 2.12 as the odds were ridiculously short. It took 30 min's or so for the game to open up and for Leverkusen to take the lead. The odds dropped to 1.5 and we got our bet matched at 1.55. Those who waited could have got 1.27 matched after the second goal 5 min's into the second half.


Profit made on this trade = £
35


Date: 01/12/07
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Reading v Middlesborough - SCORE: 1- 1
Our Recommendation:
Reading played well last week but took their eyes off the ball in the final minute vs Man City. Whilst they're definitely not the most inspiring team in the Premiership, you can certainly see they are trying hard this season and on a positive note, they have won 75% of their games against bottom half teams when playing at home. With nearly a fully fit squad Reading should take all 3pts here.

We find it very hard to find anything positive about Middlesborough's recent form especially as they have lost 11 of their last 16 away to bottom half sides.

Head to head supports a Reading home win with the most recent encounter finishing 3 - 2.

With only one draw in the last 14 for Reading and Middlesborough conceding an average of 2 goals a game on the road, we feel laying the draw is slightly safer than backing Reading outright. So we will be laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour. Ideally after Reading take the lead.

The over 2.5 goals market is of interested as Reading have the highest +2.5 goals record in the Premiership. We will be looking to trade on this in-play as a side bet depending on what we see.

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.4 a few min's in-play as we were still watching the Hertha game. We got in on the goals bet at 2.86 around 30 min's in. Reading looked the better team but Boro were better than expected. Reading took the lead 54 min's in so we traded out on the goals bet as it didn't look like any more were coming at 3.2 for no loss if the game finished under and we got out at 5.0 on the lay bet with £68 for £30 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £
30


Date: 02/12/07
Time: 14.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Serie A
Teams: Parma v Empoli - SCORE: 1- 0
Our Recommendation:
Parma come into this match without a win in 4 games (3 draws, 1 defeat) and are in desperate need of 3 points. On a positive note they have only lost 1 of their last 10 matches at home and have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of them. To compliment this they have a 100% record at home against teams below them in the league over the last few seasons.

Empoli are having a tough time this season but with their new appointed manager Alberto Malesani promising to lead them away from the relegation zone, they should be motivated.

We won't be holding our breath though as the last 6 games with Parma playing at home have gone against them.

We will be backing Parma around 2.1 and trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 2.04. Parma started strong managing to go one up 21 min's in enabling us to trade out at 1.38 with £140 for £48 profit on the Parma win.



Profit made on this trade = £
48


Date: 02/12/07
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Primera Division
Teams: Valencia v Ath Bilbao - SCORE: 0 - 3
Our Recommendation:
Despite no chance of qualifying for Champions League knock out stages the recent 0 - 0 result against Schalke confirmed to us Valencia are definitely playing better football under Ronald Koeman’s control and their defense did look a lot tighter which has been a previous concern when trading on them.

Valencia's have a 100% home record against bottom half teams over the last few seasons and have won over 70% of them. When you take into consideration Bilboa haven't beaten Valencia at home in 13 years this does look a little one sided.

We will be backing Valencia around 1.7 and trading out after they take the lead.

We do have a warning for you the last 3 meetings have ended in a draw so if Bilboa score first you should consider backing the draw in-play.


Our Trading Result:
We got in a few min's in at 1.7. Valencia started fairly well but went one down 33 min's in. At this time it did look like they still had a chance so we waited for an equalizer, the next goal came from them again. At this time we backed the draw at 8.6 with £15 as there was still 30 min's for them to pull it back. Unfortunately this didn't happen and they finally lost 3 - 0. Their improvement in defense obviously wasn't long term !


Profit made on this trade = - £
115


Date: 03/12/07
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Manchester Utd V Fulham - SCORE: 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Manchester United come into this match on the back of that 0 -1 loss to Bolton. We do fear for Fulham here as the usual reaction from Utd after losing is to destroy the next team they play to boost their morale, and with Man Utd unbeaten at home this season Fulham will need to be at their best to stop the now fit Rooney and Tevez from scoring.

On a positive note Fulham are still the strongest first-half club in the Premier League, leading in seven and drawing in six of their 14 games at the break.

If you consider that only one club has scored against Man Utd at home this season, and 8 of their last 10 at home have finished under 2.5 goals, complimented with Fulham first half stats. It points to under 2.5 goals.

We will be backing under 2.5 goals around 2.55 and trading out under 1.9, hopefully before a goal.

In the unlikely event that Fulham score first its worth backing Man Utd or laying Fulham as a side bet because Fulham have failed to win their last 16 away games when they have opened the scoring.

Our Trading Result:
The odds had drifted so we got in at 2.64 before Kick off. The first 20 min's were an absolute nightmare all Man Utd with Ronaldo scoring after 10 min's. Fulham start to come back into the game after about 25 min's and had a few chances before half time. The odds nearly got to our trade out odds before the second goal 58 min's in but we were forced to wait for them to drift again. Fulham held them off enabling us to trade out with about 10 min's to go at 1.6 with £150 for £70 profit. This was easily the most stressful trade so far this season!


Profit made on this trade = £
70


Date: 04/12/07
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture:Champions League
Teams: AC Milan V Celtic - SCORE: 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
With Milan just requiring a point to finish top of the group, and Celtic needing just a point to qualify, this game has a draw written all over it. This is strongly reflected in the draw odds on Betfair. You can lay the draw at 1.97, an absolutely ridiculous price. If your a cynic then yes its points toward a draw, but do you feel Milan will take it easy on Celtic to help them qualify? Not likely, especially when Celtic won 2-1 in the reverse fixture at Celtic Park. Also considering Celtic have lost all of their last six matches away from home in the Champions League and, conceding 13 goals managing to only score 3. This has a higher probability of a home win than a draw.

We will be laying the draw at 1.97 and trading out after a goal hopefully from Milan (we would rather see Celtic win but we have to follow the stats)

Back the 0-0 correct score if your concerned its available at 4.4

Our Trading Result:
Obviously we got in on this one when we picked the trade at 1.97. There were some good chances in the first half but no goals. Its unusual for us to back the 0-0 half way through a game but the hype must have rubbed off on us. We put £25 on at 2.36 to minimise our loss should it finish 0-0 so when a goal came from Milan's Inzaghi 70 min's in we were kicking ourselves. We took the 6.0 that was immediatley on offer after the game returned in-play, and traded out with £25 for a profit of £71, minus the correct score bet for an overall profit of £46.



Profit made on this trade = £
46


Date: 05/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: La Liga
Teams: Osasuna V Sevilla - SCORE: 1 - 1
Our Recommendation:
With all the additional commitments Sevilla have had this season they have played 25 games already and they are looking tired. When you consider all the disruption of management with the death of Puerta, and Ramos jumping ship to Tottenham they are very unsettled which is probably the reason they are struggling domestically, sitting down in 15 place.

Osasuna have had none of the problems that Sevilla have had to cope with, but they go into the match on the same points as Sevilla and one place below them in the league.

With Osasuna coming into this after a morale boosting win and Sevilla traveling to Pamplona on the back of 3 domestic losses and considering there issues this season we feel Osasuna have this one.

What really weights it in Osasuna's favour for us is the strong head to head history. They remain unbeaten by Sevilla at home in since 1993.

We will be backing Osasuna around 3.2 and trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We got in about 20 min's before kick off at 3.15. As expected Sevilla weren't at their best during the first half and went 1 down 18 min's in for us to trade out at 1.73 with £182 for £78 profit across all options.



Profit made on this trade = £
78


Date: 06/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Coppa Italia
Teams: Empoli V Juventus - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Empoli are having a season they will want to forget, they are currently rock bottom of Serie A managing to win only 2 games so far this season and picked up just 10 points in 14 games.

With Empoli's major concern being their Serie A survival they have hinted in the press that they will be resting their key 1st team players for the far more important Serie A survival game against Cagliari this weekend. This is obviously great news for Juventus and with their excellent record over Empoli (won 78%) we feel Juventus will come out winners here.

We will be backing Juventus around 1.8 and trading out when they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We got in 1.93 and were wandering why the odds were drifting before kick off. This was obvious in the first half as Empoli despite having some key players missing were playing very well and took the lead 20 min's in. We didn't trade out as some of our members did but waited to see what was going to happen in the early part of the second half. Unfortunately they scored again so we ended up taking 13.0 as trade out odds with £50, for a loss of £50 if the Empoli won or drew. At this time we advised most the members who contacted us to back 2-0, 2-1, 2-2 those who did would have taken a large profit on the goals market to cover the loss. As we didn't mention it in advance we won't report the profit.



Profit made on this trade = £
50


Date: 08/12/07
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Everton V Fulham - SCORE: 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Everton are unbeaten in the last 9 games, have just qualified for the knock-out stages of the UEFA Cup, sitting a respectable 9th place in the premiership and are our favorite long shot for some silverware this year. They do have a problem stopping the ball hitting the back of their net though, managing just one clean sheet at home this season.

Fulham have been doing fairly well at home this season but on the road they have had some problems, not managing to win any of the last 10. On a positive note they have managed to score a goal in 7 out of the last 10 but they definitely have a problem holding the lead.

Head to head history for these teams is very consistent, as an example If we go back to the millennium the team that is at home wins the match with the last one going to Everton (4-1).

With the head to head trend, Fulham scoring and conceding in the majority of their away games, and Everton only Keeping one clean sheet at Goodison this season we should have a good opportunity to trade on both the Everton win, and the goals market.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals, once the odds have drifted a little in-play as a primary bet and trading out after a goal or two and if Everton start well we will be trading on them as a side bet.

Our Trading Result:
We got in about 15 min's in on the goals bet at 2.32 and at 1.7 on the back bet once Fulham settled down. The first half was very open (lots of rain too) but unfortunately no goals. At half time we couldn't all agree on the trade out strategy so stayed in to see what was going to happen in the next 15 min's. Yakubu open the scoring a few min's into the second half enabling us to trade out on the win bet at 1.24 with £60 for £20 profit on the Everton win and another goal from Yakubu came shortly after for us to trade out at 1.65 on the goals bet with £141 for £38 profit. Yet another goal came 20 min's later giving anyone (the Everton supports and Dave Arnold) a much larger profit.


Profit made on this trade = £
58


Date: 08/12/07
Time: 17.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Reading V Liverpool - SCORE: 3 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Reading have been struggling this season after such a great effort last year. They have made for exciting attacking football but their gung-ho tactics have left them shockingly open at the back. This isn't an ideal way to play against unbeaten Liverpool as they are blasting goals past their opposition without a care in the world.

This season Liverpool have won 80% of their games against teams of a similar ranking as Reading and with Reading having the highest record of games ending over +2.5 goals we should see a few goals here especially if Reading score.

We will be backing Liverpool around 1.7 and trading out after they take the lead. We will also be looking to trade on over 2.5 goals in-play.

Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.62 as the match turned in-play and our goals bet on at 2.36 a short time in. Reading opened the scoring 17 min's in so we were fairly confident of the goals bet coming off as highlighted in the prematch preview. Liverpool equalized about 10 min's later at this point we traded out on the goals bet at 1.17 for £53 profit. Despite equalising Liverpool were looking very awkward with the most rediculous set up for this match with Torres, Voronin and Crouch upfont, sorry we don't get it Rafael. Reading took the lead again after 60 min's for us to call it a a day and traded out at 4.5 with £50 for a loss of £50 if Reading won or the game finished in a draw. The worst Liverpool performance of the season!


Profit made on this trade = £
3


Date: 09/12/07
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Middlesborough V Arsenal - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Middlesborough are struggling at both ends of the pitch and haven’t now won in ten, their longest sequence without a win in 10 years. They can't be looking forward to a meeting with the league leaders who are undefeated in 22 Premier League matches stretching back to last season. We were initially looking to trade on Arsenal as our primary bet but with Flamini, Hleb and Fabregas joining Dutch forward Robin Van Persie on the sidelines we feel the price is a little short even though the players replacing them are all internationals.
We will be focusing on the goals market as our primary bet (76% of Boro’s home games against top half sides have had 3 goals or more) and head to head history with Boro at home averages over 3 goals.

So we will be backing over 2.5 in-play for better value and trading out after a goal or two.

We will also consider trading on the Arsenal win in-play as a side bet depending on how they start. (if they look like Liverpool yesterday we will leave them alone)

Our Trading Result:
We were waiting for the odds to drift as usual so the early Boro goal caught us out. This gave us some time to take stock of what was going on. Middlesborough were definitely the dominant team which gave us deja vu of yesterday so we left the back bet alone as highlighted above. We didn't get on the goals market until after Walcott came on about 60 min's in at 2.8. Another goal came from Middlesborough 13 min's later giving us trade out odds of 2.04 for £35 profit. Those who got in before kick off or waited for the 3rd would have taken more profit.



Profit made on this trade = £
35


Date: 09/12/07
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Tottenham V Man City - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Tottenham have done the double over City for the last three seasons but with their leaky defense at present its a tough ask to repeat it. They have conceded more goals at home than any other side in the Premiership but their goals for tally of 17 is only bettered by Arsenal. However, considering their ability to find the net they've managed just two home wins out of seven.

Man City, by contrast are goal-shy on the road but if they are going to score there will be no better chance than against Tottenham.

Head to head is stacked in Spurs favour but with the mini miracle performed at City since Sven took over its a tough call.

With the very high probability of a few goals we should be able to lay the draw around 3.4 and trade out after a goal and the odds are in our favour. Ideally after Tottenham take the lead.

Also the over 2.5 goals market is of interest so we will be looking to trade on this in-play once the odds have drifted a little.

Our Trading Result:
The odds were drifting on the draw in the lead up to this match so we took 3.55. If you had some faith you could have got under 3 in-play before the goal. We took 2.54 on the goals bet in-play. Chimbonda scored just before half time for us to trade out on both bets. We traded out on the draw bet at 6.0 (6.2 available) for £39 profit and traded out with no profit or loss on the goals bet at 2.54. Those who waited on the goals bet would have take the full profit.



Profit made on this trade = £
39


Date: 09/12/07
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Blackburn V West Ham - SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Blackburn are one of the most improved teams this season despite the 'faze' they have recently gone through (not winning in 4 games prior to the recent 3-1 whipping of Newcastle). However, an outstanding start to the season ensures they are still in contention for a place in Europe next year.

West Ham still suffering with injury problems have played some decent football over the last few weeks so we can't wait to see how strong they will be when their key players are back.

Blackburn are very hard to beat especially at home and with West Ham still not at full strength we feel their is value in backing them.

Head to head strongly supports a home win (similar trend to Everton V Fulham yesterday) and over 2.5 goals (the last 9 with Blackburn at home have finished over 2.5 goals with the average scoreline reaching 4 goals a game)

We will be backing Blackburn around 1.95 and trading out after they take the lead.

Also the over 2.5 goals market is definitely of interest so we will be looking to trade on this in-play once the odds have drifted a little.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Blackburn at 2.1 a few min's in and got in on the goals bet at 2.62. The game was open in the first half but the introduction of Ashton and new team tactics in the second half seemed to tip the balance in West Hams favour. They took the lead 7 min's into the second half where we decided to trade out on the goals bet at 3.15 for no loss if the game finished under as the odds were drifting very quickly prior to the goal. We decided to give it some time to see if Blackburn equalized but unfortunately they didn't. So we turned our trade out strategy to the goals market backing 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 to end in a small profit. As we didn't mention backing the goals market in advance we won't report the profit again, but please consider this as an option in the future.


Profit made on this trade = - £
100


Date: 10/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: FA Cup second round
Teams: Swansea v Horsham - SCORE: 6 - 2
Our Recommendation:
The first leg saw non-league side Horsham play their socks of at their home ground Atspeed Stadium, and hold Swansea to a 1-1 draw. It definitely wasn't what Swansea were expecting to come home with. Watching the match it was pretty obvious that Swansea were having difficulties playing on a pitch that resembled a glue pot in torrential rain.

We can't see this ending in an upset for the Coca Cola League One leaders especially at their home ground so they should win convincingly.

To back Swansea there is little value, so we will be trading on over 2.5 goals instead. The odds are short at the moment so it will be worth giving it a little time in-play for them to drift. Not too long though or your likely to get caught out.

Our Trading Result:
We waited as long as we dare and got in at 1.65. The first goal came 20 min's in from Horsham superstar Farrell (this is definitely the week for upsets) as the odds were short we decided to hang in there for an equalizer from Swansea. It only took 60 seconds for the goal to come enabling us to trade out at 1.06 with £100 for £56 profit if the game finished over another minute later Horsham took the lead again!!! What a game, those who waited would have taken the full profit and witness one of the most entertaining games this year.


Profit made on this trade = £
56


Date: 11/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League (UEFA)
Teams: Real Madrid V Lazio - SCORE: 3 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Real Madrid are in pole position to book one of the places on offer to the knockout round and they will be firm favorites to secure a place. There is a small chance Real Madrid could be knocked out in the group stages, but having lost only once in their last 24 Champions League home games and with their ability to rise to the occasion we are confident of them going through. Lazio have been very inconsistent domestically and frequently struggling in games they should win so we feel with Madrid have this one. As they are a little short at the moment we won't considering backing them but with both teams styles frequently throwing up goals this would be our preferred trade. Head to head strongly supports over 2.5 goals with the last 3 games averaging over 4 goals a game.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play once the odds drift a little and trading out after a goal or two. Currently available at 1.78 on Betfair

Our Trading Result:
The odds on over 2.5 steadily shortened in the lead up for this match to around 1.58. We waited for 10 min's but they had only drifted to 1.7 which we begrudgingly took as we didn't want to get caught out. Real Madrid were on fire driving 3 goals past Lazio in 36 min's. We traded out after the 2nd goal from Raul at 1.09 with £156 for £53 across all options.


Profit made on this trade = £
53


Date: 12/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League (UEFA)
Teams: Barcelona v Stuttgart - SCORE: 3 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Barcelona have already won their group and you might think they aren't bothered about the result of this match or will be resting key players. We feel differently about this as Barcelona have rarely rested their first team players at the end of the group stages and with Ronaldinho and Eto'o wanting to impress as they bid to regain fitness, we should see a decent performance from the team that has won 86% of their home group matches over the last 5 years.

Stuttgart have been very poor away from home in the Champions League and there is no hiding that the German outfit have had a miserable time of it in Europe this season losing their opening four games in Group E.

Stuttgart will have 6 of their best players out for this match so if Barca don't win this they must have had a night out drinking before hand.

The last time these teams met Barcelona won 0-2 away from home, we feel a similar result (not too high scoring) is on its way so will be backing Barcelona around 1.51 and trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Barcelona when we picked the trade last night at 1.51. So when Stuttgart scored a lucky goal after 3 min's and the odds went up to 2.2 for a short time, we were a little annoyed knowing there was a high probability Barcelona would still win for us to trade out with a better profit. Barca were dominant after going behind and took the lead after 57 min's for us to trade out at 1.13 with £100 for £36 profit. Another goal followed 10 min's later for those who waited for a better profit. We were right about Ronaldinho and Eto'o wanting to impress, they both scored.



Profit made on this trade = £
36


Date: 14/12/07
Time: 19.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams: Energie Cottbus V Hannover 96 - SCORE: 5 - 1
Our Recommendation:
On paper this match should go to Hannover. They are sitting in 6th place not to far of the pace. Their form away has been pretty good only losing 2 of the 8 away games (one was to league leaders Bayern München). They also have a strong record on the road against teams outside the top 7. They come into this match on the back of a 4-3 win over 2nd place Werder Bremen which is no easy task.

Cottbus as most people are aware have been having a season they would like to forget, sitting bottom with only 2 wins from their 16 games. The first few months of the season they were disorganized and struggling at both ends, with the usual management issues when you are not on top of your game, but we have seen big improvements in them recently and as they come into this with 4 points from their last two games and recently signed some very competent key players this could be a very interesting match.

Cottbus recent improvement in form stops us backing Hannover outright so we will be laying the draw around 3.4 and trading out after an goal and the odds are in our favour, ideally after Hannover take the lead.

If Hannover don't score first stats show us the likely end result is them losing or at best a draw.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.5. Cottbus are definitely a changed team ! They opened the scoring 11 min's in but as usual when a non-favourate scores the odds end up sitting just under 4.0. As most the members know we wait for 4.1 as a minimum but we have to admit we traded half our stake out at 3.9 and decided to wait for a little while for the odds drift to trade out the rest. We weren't surprised when another goal came from Cottbus after 30 min's for us to trade the rest of our stake out at 8.0 for £47 profit on the win.


Profit made on this trade = £
47


Date:15/12/07
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Wigan V Blackburn - SCORE: 5 - 3
Our Recommendation:
Wigan haven't won a game since August, losing 9 of the last 10. They have only scored 12 goals in 16 games and conceded 30. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know they have a serious problems going forward, even with the return of Emile Heskey (not at his best), they do have a need for another decent striker. Having watch then twice this season, they really are as bad as it looks on paper.

Blackburn have had a funny few weeks lately, with only a win at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago their best result in quite a while. In the games they have not won they have still looked good, and with only one loss away this season against Man Utd they should have the ability to walk away with a win here, especially with Bentley back from suspension and an unbeaten head to head history against Wigan.

We will be backing Blackburn around 2.3 (currently available on Betfair) and hopefully trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Blackburn at 2.26. Within the first 15 min's Wigan were 2 up, shocked is an under statement but they deserved it. We decided to wait until around half time to see how Blackburn responded. 37 min's in they were 3 down leaving us nowhere really to go. We advised those who contacted to back 3-2 as a bit of a punt which was available at 15.5 when we backed it for £20. Santa Cruz grabbed one back for Blackburn giving them a glimmer of hope. The first 20min's of the second half Blackburn were highly motivated with Santa Cruz getting himself a hat trick for us to trade out on both bets. We got out of the correct score bet at 3.7, for £60 profit and as Emerton was sent off for Blackburn reducing them to 10 men it was a big ask for them to score again so we layed Blackburn at 4.5 with £50 so we could end in profit. We won't report the goals profit in the figures as we didn't mention it in advance.


Profit made on this trade = - £
50


Date:15/12/07
Time: 17.15 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: - Fulham V Newcastle SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Poor Fulham, if a Football match lasted just 45 min's they would be sitting second in the Premiership. They have been very unlucky and sometimes a little layed back to put it nicely not to be in a better league position. With only 2 wins and 7 draws from 16 matches they find themselves just above the dropzone. Their main issue is their inability to stop the opposition scoring, managing it in only 5% of games over the past few season when playing teams mid to top of the table. This kind of explains why they frequently have scoreline's with 3 goals and over.

The goals market is what we are interested here as its could go either way as Fulham really need a win and Newcastle have been unconvincing recently.

To support our interest in the goals market 5 of the last 6 head to head match ups with Fulham at home have finished over 2.5 goals.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two, we will look to get it matched in-play once the odds have drifted a little.


A word of caution, goals usually come late in Fulham games!

Our Trading Result:
We back over 2.5 goals in-play at 2.58 as the game looked fairly open with a couple of chances. Not much happened after getting in and about 5 min's before half time we backed under at 1.26 to minimize our potential overall loss to £80 if there where no late goals. At half time the pressure was on from members to pick a correct score so we advised 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1. So again little or no no loss (depending what stakes you used) as we covered the correct score bets but as usually we don't report them in the trading figures so unfortunately our worse day for a long time, £80 loss. Poor Fulham, what a way to lose another match, goal in the dying seconds.



Profit made on this trade = - £80



Date:16/12/07
Time: 13.30 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: -Liverpool V Manchester Utd SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Man Utd have won five times more than any other side at Anfield in the Premier League, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. What stands out when these teams meet is despite both teams great ability to score goals, the scoreline tends to be low. This is more prominent in recent years with the last 5 matches finishing under 2.5 goals. There is also a lack of draws with only 1 on the last 14 match-ups.

Both teams have similar motivation here to win so its going to be a very exciting game but with the home supporters desperate for another League title, and a win at home over the reigning Champions for Rafa to take into his meeting with the new owners (which follows this game) this could tip the balance in Liverpool's favour. Hopefully he won't pick some 'new formation' which none of the player can get on with.

We will be laying the draw here around 3.25 and trading out after a goal and the odds are in our favour.

We will also be backing under 2.5 goals around 1.75 as a side bet and trading out under 1.5

Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.2 and our under 2.5 side trade on at 1.71. As expected a tight game with only one real chance coming before we traded out on the goals bet at 1.39 with £50 for £15 profit if the game finished under. The only goal came from Tevez just before half time to put Utd in front. We had to wait a little while for the odds to drift out on the draw to our usual trade out point of 4.1. We backed the draw with £75 for £24 profit on the win for an overall profit of £39


Profit made on this trade = £39



Date:16/12/07
Time: 14.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: -Parma V Reggina SCORE: 3 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Parma are unbeaten in 19 matches when at home to teams in the bottom third of the league such as Reggina , managing to winning 70% of them. The reason we picked Parma was not just the stats it was the same reason we drop Celtic from our selection 'Injury Problems and Suspensions'. Reggina have half a team out which isn't the best situation to be in when you are sitting in the relegation zone. In the local press Renzo Ulivieri has hinted he is looking for a draw here so we will have to see how Parma feel about that. The last 4 match-ups have delivered over 3 goals a game and with the holes in defense at Reggina we should see a similar result.

We will be backing Parma here and hopefully trading out after they take the lead.

We are also interested in over 2.5 goals market as Parma frequently open the scoring in the first half so we will see how they start, and look to get this in-play.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Parma at 1.84 and got our side bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.42. Parma took the lead after 26 min's for us to trade out at 1.26 with £110 for £53 profit. We also traded out on the goals bet at 1.75 with £65 for £22 profit and an overall profit of £75. Their 2nd half produced 2 more goals for Parma giving those who waited over £150 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £75



Date: 17/12/07
Time: 19.15 hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga 2
Teams: FC Köln V Kaiserslautern - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
FC Köln have been on a role at home recently winning their last 4 matches. They seem to have a knack of convincingly defeating the teams that are in bottom 3rd of the table. Having beaten the 3 teams immediately above Kaiserslautern in the league over recent weeks you would understand why they are strong favorites. The problem we have with backing them outright is the head to head history, Köln have not beaten Kaiserslautern in the last 18 meetings which confirms Kaiserslautern are definitely Köln's bogey team.

We are going to be trading on the least conflicting trend which is over 2.5 goals. The last 4 meetings have produced an average of over 4 goals a game and both teams all-team match up reflect a high score line.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play as usual after the odds drift a little for better value and will be trading out after a goal or two.

Laying FC Koln might be worth a side trade for those who are interested as its a fairly low liability.

Our Trading Result:
We got in on over 2.5 goals in-play at 1.78 as the odds were stuck around there for about 5 min. We layed FC Köln at 1.68 as a side bet before the match turned inplay. Simpson opened the scoring for Kaiserslautern after 19 min's giving us the perfect opportunity to trade out on both trades. We got out on the goals bet at 1.35 with £132 for £30 profit and backed FC Köln at 2.74 with £31 for another £18. We would have probably waited a little longer for Köln to equalize if we didn't have the additional profit on the lay bet.



Profit made on this trade = £48



Date: 18/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Carling Cup
Teams: Man City V Tottenham - SCORE: 0 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Manchester City are up against Tottenham for the second time in just over a week. Last time out they lost 2-1. This time they are at home, and as they have turned Eastlands into a fortress this season winning 9 straight home games, this should be pretty straightforward especially when Spurs have only taken 3 points once this season on the road. With the return of Elano to the City line up this should go their way.

We will be backing Man City around 2.5 and trading out after they take the lead.

Our Trading Result: We got in at 2.52 about 10 seconds before Defoe scored from Spurs. Its wasn't a fluke as they nearly scored a couple of min's later with the same play. 20 min's in Zokora was sent off for Spurs giving City a great advantage. The odds dropped to under 3 shortly after and we traded out half our stake at 3.05 but were fairly confident of an equalizer due to Tottenham's defensive record so we let the bet run. It didn't come and Spurs continued to out play City. With 20 min's to go we backed 0-1(2.12), 1-1(3.85),0-2(10.5) to cover our potential loss and as the game finished 0-2 and we ended with a small profit. As we didn't recommend the correct score market in advance we wont report the profit.


Profit made on this trade = - £50



Date: 19/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: Carling Cup
Teams: Chelsea v Liverpool - SCORE: 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Chelsea seem to take this competition seriously as they have won two Carling Cup trophies in the last three seasons, although Blues’ boss Avram Grant has stated on record that the European Cup is the Clubs main focus this season. We can't see Liverpool just sitting back either as Benítez has consistently got the better of Mourinho in knock-out tournaments (excluding the 2005 Carling Cup Final).

As this match is being played as Stamford Bridge it should go to Chelsea as Liverpool’s record there is awful. In the 3 recent Champions League trips played there, the Reds failed to score a single goal. If you also consider they haven't lost at home in years the likely outcome here is a full time draw which goes to penalties or a Chelsea win. Whilst a stale mate will suit the penalty experts at Liverpool it is likely to motivate Chelsea to secure the win early.

Whilst we feel Chelsea will win this we are going to go for the slightly safer option of laying the draw around 3.3 and trading out after a goal and the odds move in our favour.

Those who are worried about the 0-0 you can back it at 9.4 for your trade out liability.

Whilst this is likely to be low scoring we feel there will be a first half goal from Chelsea so backing over 2.5 goals in-play after the odds have drifted and trading out after a goal could be profitable.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.3 just after the game turned in-play. We weren't that confident of the goals market as the game went flat when we would normally get in so we only used £25 and waited until about 35 min's in for thinks to pick up, getting 4.4 matched. Chelsea were definitely the better team and open the scoring after 58 min's. The odds shot up to over 9.0 about a minute later after Crouch was sent off reducing the Reds to 10 men and drifted quite quickly out to 11.0. We traded out at 8.4 with £34 so most the members beat us on this one. We also got out on the goals market at 3.85 with £28 for for a small profit of £3


Profit made on this trade = £65



Date:20/12/07
Time: 19.45 hrs GMT
Fixture: UEFA Cup
Teams: AZ Alkmaar v Everton - SCORE: 2 - 3
Our Recommendation:
The Dutch side have the longest unbeaten home record in Europe, a ridiculous 32 matches stretching back to the 70's.

With Everton's place already secure in the last 32, they have left 6 of their best players at home to give them a well earned rest, and decided to give their youngsters a run out instead. When you also consider , Phil Neville, Alan Stubbs and Nuno Valente are also out injured, you probably won't know who 10 of the players are!

With Alkmaar home record and their need to secure a win here and the fact the Everton have their youngsters playing this should go to AZ Alkmaar so we will be backing them and hopefully trading out after they take the lead.


Our Trading Result:
We got in on this a couple of min's in at 3.25, we didn't even know Everton had scored a minute in until one of the other traders said ' these odds are a bit high put the TV on'. This seem to be the typical feedback we were getting from our members. So when AZ equalized about 15 min's later we traded out a 2.0 with £150 for £71 if AZ won and £47 if it went to Everton or a draw. It ended in a Everton win which was well deserved so £47 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £47



Date:29/12/07
Time: 15.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Tottenham V Reading - SCORE: 6 - 4
Our Recommendation:

With Spurs scoring an average of over 2.5 goals a game at home and Reading conceding an average of 2.5 goals on the road, we should see some goals here! Also with Tottenham's excellent record against bottom half teams (won 84% over the few seasons) we should see a home win to support the goals especially with the influence of Ramos and Reading terrible away record.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals with a split stake £50 fairly early and another £50 once they have drifted for better value. Then trading out after a goal or two.

We will also be trading on Spurs as a side bet if they start as expected.

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.69 on the over 2.5 goals bet with the first £50 of our £100 stake and backed Spurs at 1.5. Spurs opened the scoring after 7 min's for us to trade out on the back bet at 1.19 with £55 for £14 if Spurs won. As we had only got in with £50 instead of £100 on the over 2.5 bet we waited for another. The next one came from Reading taking them even just over 5 min's later. We decided to trade out at 1.1 with £50 leaving all the profit on over as Spurs were very likely to score again. So an overall profit of £42



Profit made on this trade = £42



Date:29/12/07
Time: 15.00 hrs GMT
Fixture: Clydesdale Premier
Teams: Celtic V Gretna - SCORE: 3 - 0
Our Recommendation:

This match is likely to have a similar result to the Spurs one. Celtic are scoring an average of 2.8 goals a game at home and Gretna are conceding an average of 2.5 on the road. With Celtic needing to bounce back after dropping points at home to Hibs they are likely to make an example of the SPL's bottom side.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals with a split stake £50 fairly early and another £50 once they have drifted for better value. Then trading out after a goal or two.

Our Trading Result:
We got in a 1.47 with our 1st £50 a short time in once the game opened up a little. No real chance in the first 25 mins enabling us to get in for the 2nd half of our stake at 1.83. The first goal came from Celtic (obviously) about 10 min's before half time. The odds only shortned to 1.51 so we felt it was worth waiting for another as our average odds were only 1.65. Just after half time they scored again so we took the 1.3 that was on offer and traded our with £127 for £26 across all options as we weren't 100% confident of another.



Profit made on this trade = £26



Date: 30/12/07
Time: 11.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Eredivisie
Teams: VVV v Ajax - SCORE: 2 - 2
Our Recommendation:

Having watch these teams in the reverse fixture back in September we noticed there was a clear difference in ability. VVV are one of those teams that concede more than they score but have shown some reasonable form recently picking up points from their last 3 home games. Ajax are probably the most consistent team in the league performing well at home and away. Why we like them is they are a banker for a goal away hitting an average of 2.6 goals on the road and scoring in the last 10 away games. When this is complimented by VVV's record of conceding in the majority of home games and the last meeting finishing 6-1 to Ajax, we should have plenty of opportunity to trade on this match.

The odds are about right for the away win at 1.44 but where possible we want better value, so we will only consider this as a side bet or if VVV score first. We will be backing over 2.5 goals in-play once the odds have drifted a little for better value as they are a little short at the moment at 1.5 and trading out after a goal or two.


Our Trading Result:
God we hate technology sometimes! During this game not only did we lose our Satellite signal so we were trading blind for some time (relying on members for info) then after we got our bets on we had to reboot our Internet as we lost our signal. Anyway we got in at 1.8 on the over 2.5 bet and at the same time backed Ajax at 1.52. The first goal came from Ajax despite VVV having the majority of the possession early on. We decided to get out on both bets before anything else went wrong. Trading out at 1.22 with £60 on the back bet and 1.60 with £100 on the over 2.5 bet. If we had waited like the majority of members we would have seen two more goals for 100% on the goals bet and the win bet. Sometimes we get it wrong.. but still a profit admittedly a small one in comparison.


Profit made on this trade = £28



Date: 30/12/07
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Eredivisie
Teams: PSV v Breda - SCORE: 2 - 0

Our Recommendation:

PSV currently find themselves in an unwelcome 2nd place in the league having lost a few of their recent games. (Resting players injuries etc.) They come into this match with excellent home form, winning 8 of the last 10 and losing 1. What we like about PSV is they always score well at home averaging just under 3 goals a game. When Breda play PSV at home its usually a home win (90% of head to head matches have finished this way) and a high score affair with the 3 most recent matches finishing 3-0,3-0,4-0 all to PSV.
 

The price to back PSV is short (1.4) so we will only consider this as a side bet after the odds have drifted a little. We prefer the goals market here as Betfair seemed to have to two priced back to front so we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay for better value and trading out after a goal or two.

Our Trading Result:
We got in at 1.84 on the over 2.5 goals bet and 1.5 on the PSV Back bet. PSV spent most there time during this match closing Breda down which to be honest is what needed to happen with their recent form, but this style of play changed the dynamic of the game and you could tell by the atmosphere the home fans were disappointed. Therefore we were over the moon when Koevermans scored just before half time as we felt this could end 0-0. We then traded out at 1.78 with £109 for £8 profit on the goals bet and 1.15 with £60 for £15 profit on the back bet.


Profit made on this trade = £23



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