1
 

 


David Lauder's Results - 2009-2010

Profit = £2681

90% Strike Rate

JOIN HERE!

Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed results table below)

Date
Teams
Score
Profit
03/01/09
Hearts V Hibs
0 - 0
£46
11/01/09
Hibs V Hearts
0 - 2
£39
11/01/09
Man Utd V Chelsea
3 - 0
£14
17/01/09
Bolton V Manchester Utd
0 - 1
£47
18/01/09
Aberdeen V Celtic
4 - 2

-£58

18/01/09
Lazio V Juventus
1 - 1
£14
23/01/09
Derby V Nottingham Forest
1 - 1
£18
24/01/09
Manchester Utd V Tottenham
2 - 1
£22
31/01/09
Manchester Utd V Everton
1 - 0
£37
01/02/09
Liverpool V Chelsea
2 - 0
£36
08/02/09
West Ham V Manchester Utd
0 - 1
£25
08/02/09
Barcelona V Sporting Gijon
3 - 1
£3
15/02/09
Celtic V Rangers
0 - 0
£44
15/02/09
Inter V AC Milan
2 - 1
£7
21/02/09
Manchester Utd V Blackburn
2 - 1
£6
21/02/09
Barcelona V Espanyol
1 - 2
-£65
24/02/09
Inter Milan V Manchester Utd
0 - 0
£26
24/02/09
Lyon V Barcelona
1 - 1
£6
01/03/09
Manchester Utd V Tottenham
0 - 0
£16
01/03/09
W Bremen V B Munich
0 - 0
£28
04/03/09
Kilmarnock V Celtic
1 - 2
£21
04/03/09
Newcastle V Manchester Utd
1 - 2
£11
07/03/09
Real Madrid V Atletico Madrid
1 - 1
£36
14/03/09
Hibs V Hearts
1 - 0
£5
14/03/09
Manchester Utd V Liverpool
1 - 4
-£102
21/03/09
Bayern Munich V Karlsruhe
1 - 0
£17
28/03/09
Netherlands V Scotland
3 - 0
£23
01/04/09
England V Ukraine
2 - 1
£34
04/04/09
Hamburg V Hoffenheim
1 - 0
£20
08/04/09
Liverpool V Chelsea
1 - 3
-£33
09/04/09
Hamburg V Man City
3 - 1
£31
11/04/09
Chelsea V Bolton
4 - 3
£18
11/04/09
Liverpool V Blackburn
4 - 0
£34
14/04/09
Chelsea V Liverpool
4 - 4
-£2
15/04/09
Porto V Manchester Utd
0 - 1
£19
18/04/09
Arsenal v Chelsea
1 - 2
-£10
18/04/09
Getafe V Barcelona
0 - 1
£32
26/04/09
Lille V Marseilles
1 - 2
-£20
02/05/09
Real Madrid V Barcelona
2 - 6
£51
03/05/09
Liverpool V Newcastle
3 - 0
£36
03/05/09
Rangers V Hearts
2 - 0
£30
05/05/09
Arsenal V Manchester Utd
1 - 3
£41
06/05/09
Chelsea V Barcelona
1 - 1
£34
09/05/09
Rangers V Celtic
1 - 0
£32
10/05/09
Manchester Utd V Manchester City
2 - 0
£32
NEW SEASON BELOW
15/08/09
Chelsea V Hull
2 - 1
£52
16/08/09
Manchester Utd V Birmingham
1 - 0
£34
22/08/09
Arsenal V Portsmouth
4 - 1
£32
23/08/09
Hearts V Rangers
1 - 2
-£100
23/08/09
Fulham V Chelsea
0 - 2
£47
12/09/09
Stoke V Chelsea
1 - 2
£35
12/09/09
Manchester City V Arsenal
4 - 2
£4
12/09/09
Lazio V Juventus
2 - 0
£8
15/09/09

Zurich V Real Madrid

2 - 5
£22
15/09/09

Besiktas V Manchester United

0 - 1
£15
30/09/09
Manchester u v. Wolfsburg
2 - 1
£22
30/09/09
Real Madrid v. Marseilles
3 - 0
£17
30/09/09

Appoel Nicosea V Chelsea

0 - 1
£18
04/10/09

Rangers v. Celtic

2 - 1
£39
04/10/09

Chelsea v. Liverpool

2 - 0
£14
10/10/09
Denmark V Sweden
1 - 0
-£24
17/10/09
St Johnstone V Rangers
1 - 2
£30
21/10/09
Chelsea V Atletico Madrid
4 - 0
£25
21/10/09
Real Madrid V AC Milan
2 - 3
£63
24/10/09
Chelsea V Blackburn
5 - 0
£10
24/10/09
Inter V Catania
2 - 1
£22
31/10/09
Man Utd V Blackburn
2 - 0
£23
04/11/09
Seville V Stuttgart
1 - 1
£25
04/11/09
Arsenal V AZ
1 - 1
£22
05/11/09
Hamburg V Celtic
0 - 0
£15
07/11/09
Herts V Hibs
0 - 0
£58
07/11/09
Wolves V Arsenal
0 - 4
£31
08/11/09
Falkirk V Celtic
3 - 3
£33
08/11/09
Chelsea V Manchester Utd
1 - 0
£18
14/11/09
Ireland V France
0 - 1
£45
22/11/09
Dundee V Celtic
2 - 1
£42
29/11/09
Arsenal V Chelsea
0 - 3
£38
03/12/09
Fulham V CSKA Sofia
1 - 0
£17
05/12/09
Falkirk V Rangers
1 - 3
£30
05/12/09
Manchester City V Chelsea
2 - 1
£3
09/12/09
Juventus V Bayern Munich
1 - 4
£15
09/12/09
Atletico V Porto
1 - 1
£10
12/12/09
Manchester Utd V Aston Villa
0 - 1
-£70
12/12/09
Barcelona V Espanyol
1 - 0
£14
12/12/09
Valencia V Real Madrid
2 - 3
£27
13/12/09
Liverpool V Arsenal
1 - 2
£22
26/12/09
Birmingham V Chelsea
0 - 0
£30
02/01/10
Barcelona V Villareal
1 - 1
£2
03/01/10
Hibs V Hearts
1 - 1
£21
09/01/10
Birmingham V Manchester Utd
1 - 1
£23
09/01/10
Inter Milan V Siena
4 - 3
£19
15/01/10
Bayern Munich V Hoffenheim
2 - 0
£23
16/01/10
Hamilton V Rangers
0 - 1
£33
27/01/10
St Mirren V Rangers
0 - 2
£13
30/01/10
Hamilton V Celtic
0 - 1
£56
30/01/10
Bayern Munich v. Mainz
3 - 0
£29
30/01/10
Burnley V Chelsea
1 - 2
£20
31/01/10
Arsenal V Manchester Utd
1 - 3
£5
03/02/10
Rangers V St Johnstone
0 - 2
£20
10/02/10
Motherwell V Rangers
1 - 1
£30
13/02/10
Bayern V Dortmund
3 - 1
£40
13/02/10
Xerez V  Real Madrid
0 - 3
£21
14/02/10
Bayern V Fiorentina
2 - 1
£27
20/02/10
Inter Milan V Sampdoria
0 - 0
£47
23/02/10
Stuttgart V Barcelona
1 - 1
£34
27/02/10
Chelsea V Man City
2 - 4
-£120
28/02/10
Rangers V Celtic
1 - 0
£10
06/03/10
Wolves V Manchester Utd
0 - 1
£20
07/03/10
Inter V Genoa
0 - 0
£21
10/03/10
Real Madrid V Lyon
1 - 1
-£20
14/03/10
Man Utd V Fulham
3 - 0
£35
20/03/10
Hearts V Hibs
2 - 1
£4
20/03/10
Aston Villa V Wolves
2 - 2
£17
21/03/10
Arsenal V West Ham
2 - 0
£11
27/03/10
Bolton V Manchester Utd
0 - 4
£8
28/03/10
Real Madrid V Atletico Madrid
3 - 2
£32
03/04/10
Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
4 - 1
£17
06/04/10
Barcelona V Arsenal
4 - 1
£20
10/04/10
Aston Villa V Chelsea
0 - 3
£20
10/04/10
Real Madrid V Barcelona
0 - 2
£17
11/04/10
Blackburn V Manchester United
0 - 0
£17
13/04/10
Chelsea V Bolton
1 - 0
£20
14/04/10
Barcelona V Deportivo
3 - 0
£20
24/04/10
Real Zaragoza V Real Madrid
1 - 2
£23
25/04/10
Chelsea V Stoke
7 - 0
£34
01/05/10
Bayern Munich V Bochum
3 - 1
£25
01/05/10
Villareal V Barcelona
1 - 3
£19
02/05/10
Real Madrid V Osasuna
3 - 2
£11
02/05/10
Lazio V Inter Milan
0 - 2
£21
08/05/10

Real Madrid V Athletic Bilbao

5 - 1
£8
08/05/10

Sevilla V Barcelona

2 - 3
£14
09/05/10
Chelsea V Wigan
8 - 0
No Trade
09/05/10
Manchester Utd V Stoke
4 - 0
£12
15/05/10
Chelsea V Portsmouth
1 - 0
£26
16/05/10
Barca V Valladoid
4 - 0
No Trade
16/05/10
Malaga V Real Madrid
1 - 1
£12
13/06/10
England V USA
1 - 1
-£18
14/06/10
Italy V Paraguay
1 - 1
£40
15/06/10
Brazil V N. Korea
2 - 1
£24
16/06/10
South Africa V Uraguay
0 - 3
-£2
17/06/10
Mexico V France
2 - 0
£30
18/06/10
England V Algeria
0 - 0
£14
27/06/10
Argentina V Mexico
3 - 1
£25
28/06/10
Brazil V Chile
3 - 0
£31
03/07/10
Spain V Uraguay
1 - 0
£14

 

go back to results page
Trades Completed in Detail



Date: 03/01/09
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Teams: Hearts V Hibs - SCORE: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
These are usually tight games, with under 2.5 in the last 6, though before this there were some high-scoring games.  Both teams have been rather inconsistent of late.  Hibs did get an impressive home win at home to Celtic, but lost 4-2 at home to Kilmarnock last time out.  Hearts similarly have failed to establish themselves clearly in third place.  They beat Rangers 2-1 at home but lost their last match 1-0 to Aberdeen. If the opening looks tight we will back under 2.5, getting out quickly if it opens out.  We will also lay the draw later on if it is available at odds of 3.2 or better.  Finally a small cover trade on 0-0 will be considered.

Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 with £88 at 1.75 and traded out gradually with £106 at average odds of 1.28 for £34 profit.  We also backed 0-0 with £4 at 9.6. This allowed us to lay the draw at low odds later on with plenty of cover, so we layed at average odds 1.74 with £28, giving a loss of just £20 on this (and overall another profit of £12 with the 0-0 trade).  So overall a profit of £46 - a good start to 2009!


Profit made on this trade = £46



Date: 11/01/09
Time: 12.15hrs GMT
Teams: Hearts V Hibs - SCORE: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
As with the last Edinburgh derby we can expect a tight opening. See preview from last week). However, as it's a cup game we cannot guarantee that will completely follow the patterns of previous league game and so we only trade under 2.5 as a side trade, trading out completely after 15-20 mins or sooner if its open. Our main trade will be to lay the draw at 3.2 or better. We may consider a small cover bet on 0-0.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw, twice, firstly at 0-0 and then after Hearts took the
lead, with £105 at average odds of 1.69 trading out with £111 at 1.39 for £27 profit.  We layed the draw with £20 at 2.94 and after the goal traded out £6 at around 8 average odds.  We also layed Hibs for £4 (as after the sending off they were never a threat), to give total profit £17, and overall a profit £39 (due to £5 cover on 0-0)



Profit made on this trade = £39



Date: 11/01/09
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Teams: Man Utd V Chelsea - SCORE: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
Our main trade will be to lay the draw.  We will also look to back under 2.5 trading out after 15 min's or so (faster or slower according to how open the game is).  I cannot pick the winner here, hence the lay draw is the one to support, but if I had to guess, Chelsea do not inspire too much confidence at the moment, but you cannot rule out them raising their game for this.


Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 with £140 at 183 and layed with £145 at 1.58 (all average odds) for £5 profit. We layed the draw with £25 at 2.91 and after the first goal traded out with £12 at 4.58; in addition we layed Chelsea with £4 at 29 (ie when still 1-0) and layed Man U with £4 at 1.33. This gave a £14 profit on this market. The £5 on 0-0 meant also £14 profit overall.




Profit made on this trade = £14



Date: 17/01/09
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Teams: Bolton V Man Utd- SCORE: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Bolton have lost all 5 of their home matches against top 7 teams (Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton and Wigan), scoring just one goal.  They have also lost 6 out of their last 7 and failed to score in their last 3.  By contrast Manchester United have won their last 4 and not conceded a goal in their last 9 league fixtures. Head-to-head Bolton did manage a 1-0 win last season, but I cannot see this happening here.  And overall, in the previous 4 home games against United, they lost 3 and drew 1.  The only possible concern is whether Tevez (who is likely to replace Rooney) is up to the task.  But given United’s excellent defence and other players capable of getting a goal, the worst possible result I can see here is a draw.  We will therefore lay Bolton, the amount will depend upon whether Bolton look dangerous.  If Bolton score first, we will consider laying them again, and trade out after a goal.  Those who do not like the large liability involved will be recommended to lay for half the amount recommend in-play.  As an alternative if it is tight we will consider backing 0-0 and United as the odds drift upwards.  (We will only look to lay Bolton at odds lower than 9.6)

Our Trading Result:
As the lay odds drifted higher than when the preview was written, I switched to plan b) and we backed 0-0 with £9 at 10.5 later trading out with £5 at average odds 3.29.  We also backed United with £39 at average odds of 1.74 and later on layed Bolton with £8 at average odds of 11, for a profit of £35 on this market.  We also backed under 2.5 with £60 at 1.72 and traded out completely at average odds 1.43 for just over £16 profit. So overall a nice total profit of £47 (and it would have been a little more had it remained 0-0).



Profit made on this trade = £47



Date: 18/01/09
Time: 14.00hrs GMT
Teams: Aberdeen V Celtic - SCORE: 4 - 2

My Recommendation:
After a very poor start to the season Aberdeen have hit form, winning 5 out of the last 6.  Celtic have not been playing at their best recently so it is likely that we will have a closely fought game here.  However, unlike Rangers, Celtic seem to be able to pull out a result even when playing poorly, so they may just edge this one.  Nevertheless we will lay the draw, as usual chasing value.  If a goal is scored before we are in then we will simply look at another trade to follow later in the day.  0-0 cover may also be utilised. 


Our Trading Result:
Alas we got caught out here on the under's. We backed under 88 at 2 and had traded out with 52 when first goal went in.  After the 2nd followed immediately I decided lightening would not strike 3 times in quick succession so we backed again with to trading out in the next 5 min's, with the intention of shifting the loss to under's. Of course lightening did strike 3 times and we were left nursing a 69 loss.  We got some of this back by backing and laying Aberdeen but were still left with an overall loss of 58 (£4 on 0-0).  Ouch. But we will hopefully shortly get this back!


Profit made on this trade = -£58



Date: 18/01/09
Time: 19.30hrs GMT
Teams: Lazio V Juventus - SCORE: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
Lazio are no easy team to beat at home but Juventus are in superb form winning 9 of their last 10. With the news Inter have dropped 3 point at Atalanta (well deserved) they will be all out for the win here as they can close Inter's lead to 1 point. H2H is in Juventus' favour in recent years, they have also avoided defeat on the last 8 occasions. Both sides look like scoring here and considering Lazio have conceded 1st in 6 of their last 7 against big 4 sides this looks likely which is supported by the fact Juve have taken the lead in 70% of matches against top half sides over the last few seasons. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. The opener looks like it will come in the 1st half but we will make a decision about the goals market in play and also if we are going to grab any cover on the 0-0.

Our Trading Result:
This proved trickier than it should have been.  But we finished on top,
though we had to ride our luck, with £23 profit on main market thanks to backing the draw as otherwise we had a loss on this; I felt that a draw was beginning to look inevitable from about 65 minutes tough it is true we had to ride our luck a little in the last 5 minutes when it suddenly open out again.  (my profit as much higher but I am not reporting that as it involved backing the draw with a higher stake than I was comfortable asking the in-players. Overall a profit of £14 (£9 loss on correct score).



Profit made on this trade = £14



Date: 23/01/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Derby V Nottingham Forest - SCORE: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
Forest have done well recently, particularly away from home.  It is likely that they will give Derby a tough time, as Derby come into the match on a poorer run of form (losing their last 3 league fixtures) and of course both teams sit uncomfortably near the drop zone in the championship.   Yet we cannot really identify a clear favourite hear, so laying the draw makes sense.  Considering their low league placing, neither team has a spectacularly bad defensive record, so backing under cautiously near the beginning might make sense, but it would not be sensible to rely on it finishing under 2.5 at the end


Our Trading Result:
Although we backed under 2.5 as planned, I was quite surprised at how few chances there were, so we decided to wait longer on both the lay draw and trading out of under. Overall we backed under with £108 at 1.94 and traded out with £113 at 1.72 (involving 2 trades in and out following the goals) for £19 profit.  We also layed the draw with just £13 though we also backed the draw for £88 later on (at 1-1) and traded out again (backing during the injury break, when of course there is no risk of a goal).  We traded out some more towards the end in the hope of a late goal.  This left £5 profit on this and £18 profit overall as backed 0-0 with £6.



Profit made on this trade = £18



Date: 24/01/09
Time: 17.15hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Tottenham - SCORE: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
This is the clash of United reserves and Spurs reserves.  Happy Harry has a knack of pulling off cup shocks at Old Trafford, having won there with both Portsmouth and West Ham.  Can lightening strike three times? Well, I do not think so, as Spurs confidence is really low.  In addition, it is likely that they will be without at least 4 regulars compared with the team that struggled against Burnley. United of course also have their injury problems but they have the strength in depth to cope better.  We should of  course be careful that Harry has not been pulling a fast one with regard to his teamselection as there is some uncertainty as to injury situation.  If it turns out Harry fields a stronger side than expected we may adopt a cautious approach. We could see Spurs giving United a tough game, but as I cannot see them winning, we will lay Spurs here, trading out after a goal.  If it still level going into last 15 minutes we will trade out (as in this case, you never know whether Happy Harry might strike again). 


Our Trading Result:
We layed Spurs with £21 at average odds 7.44 (£10, unfortunately just before Spurs scored then a further £11 after).  We also backed United later on with £55 at 1.12 trading out partially towards the end for a profit of just under £24 and an overall profit of £22 (the £2 was due to a trade on the half-time market which we had not completely traded out of when United scored there quick 2 goals)




Profit made on this trade = £22



Date: 31/01/09
Time: 17.15hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Everton - SCORE: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Everton have beaten United just once in 26 outings (a 1-0 win at home in April 2005).  Yet they have performed well this season despite having injuries to some key players.  They are on a seven-match unbeaten run but although I think they could run United close, they will do well to get a draw here.  United are on one of their runs and this has been built on a fantastic defensive record.  Next to Barcelona, they are the form team in Europe and it will be worth monitoring this game to see whether we can profit from backing them or perhaps laying Everton.  If Cahill does not pass a fitness test then Everton will also be without their key threat and it will be still tougher for them to get a result.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Everton with £24 and also backed them with a small amount to increase out profit to £25 on the main market.  Although this gave us a large liability on Everton they never really threatened to win this.  They did manage to keep it tight as expected so we were able to back under 2.5 with £64 at average odds 1.78 and trade out with £76 at 1.49 for a further £12 profit and £37 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £37



Date: 01/02/09
Time: 17.15hrs GMT
Teams: Liverpool V Chelsea - SCORE: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
The preview for this game almost writes itself.  The last 6, and 9 out of last 10, have finished under 2.5 and we can expect another tight game here.  So no rocket scientist needed to work out that under 2.5 is a reasonable trade and since it is hard to pick the winner – a case can be made for both teams- we will also lay the draw. 

Our Trading Result:
Since chances were at a premium, I made under 2.5 our main trade backing with £99 at 1.61 and trading out with £119 at average odds 1.24 for £36 profit (My actual figures were slightly different due to an adjustment, but also came out at £36 profit).  As for the main market, we layed the draw with just £22 at average odds of just less than 3 to allow for an easy trade out, which in the end we did successfully to leave no loss on that market, for overall profit of £36.


Profit made on this trade = £36



Date: 08/02/09
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Teams: West Ham V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
West Ham have been on an excellent run of form.  They are unbeaten in the last 6 games. However, their wins this season have all come against bottom half teams, though they have managed creditable draw against top 5 teams (Chelsea and, last week, Arsenal).  So though United can expect a tough game, I feel it is worth backing either the draw or a United win.  Which is another way of saying that laying West Ham will be a good option.  We will trade out if West Ham look to be playing out of their skins.

Our Trading Result:
We simply layed West Ham with £26 here. Nice easy trade.


Profit made on this trade = £25



Date: 08/02/09
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Teams: Barcelona V Sporting Gijon - SCORE: 3 - 1

My Recommendation:
I make no apologies for including Barcelona again in the selections. Sometimes you just have to go with talent and form.   We do not need to talk about Barcelona's form- it is just incredible and the only danger is complacency, but with at the helm, I do not think this will be an issue. So lets look at Gijon.  For a newly promoted team, you might say they are the Hull City of La Liga,    After losing their opening  5 fixtures, including a 6-1 drubbing at home to Barcelona, they have recovered well and currently sit in a very respectable 12th position.  But Barcelona should be far too strong for them again and we will back Barcelona, chasing value by waiting for the odds to come up.  Of course this will only work if Barcelona do not score early on, so we will need to see what happens. 

Our Trading Result:
We backed 0-0 with £5 to allow us to trade 'for free' with up to £140 intending to chase value - but the odds did not shift upwards in time so just the £8 profit and £3 overall.



Profit made on this trade = £3



Date: 15/02/09
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Teams: Celtic V Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
We will lay the draw and trade out after a goal for either side.  We have only seen two 0-0 draws in the last 42 Old Firm league fixtures.  No trade on the under market unless it looks very tight. Rangers have a good record in recent meetings here, with 2 wins and a draw out of the last 6, including the 4-2 last time. They will not get a better chance to go to the top of the league, but none of this really makes a differences once the actions starts.  

Our Trading Result:
It was clear from Rangers line-up that 0-0 was always a likely scoreline (despite this being historically unusual as mentioned in the preview).  We backed 0-0 with £8 at 9.6 and traded out at average odds 2.33 for £55 profit.  We originally layed the draw with £25 at average 3.01 but later adjusted that (laying the draw once more at the end to cover for the late goal), for £44 loss on this market (which of course was covered by the 0-0 trade).  We also backed under 2.5 with £75 and traded out with £90 at 1.22 for £33 profit and overall £44 total profit.



Profit made on this trade = £44



Date: 15/02/09
Time: 19.30hrs GMT
Teams: Inter V AC Milan - SCORE: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
A 0-0 draw is also a rarity.  And I would not like to predict the result in this one any more than the Old Firm Derby.    Hence the strategy will be exactly the same.  For both these games we can be fairly safe in saying that the worse case scenario will be to break even. You would think that home advantage does not count for much in this fixture, but the last 4 have all be won by the home team, so it does show the value of the extra support.  

Our Trading Result:
A superb game. We backed 0-0 with £6 and layed the draw with £20 before the goal, after which we backed Inter  - a strategy which appeared to pay off when it went 2-0. As AC increasingly threatened, particularly after it went 2-1 we had to lay off but were still left with £23 profit on Inter.  We also backed under with £66 at 1.77 and had mainly traded out when the two goals game – but not completely so we made an £8 loss on that, for an overall profit of just £7.



Profit made on this trade = £7



Date: 21/02/09
Time: 17.30hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Blackburn - SCORE: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
With United continuing to be tight at the back (understatement of the year: just for the record, it is now 14 consecutive clean sheets), and Blackburn's poor record against the top 5 (their record is played 6, lost 6), not to mention their poor recent  head-to-head record against United (lost 4 and drawn 1) you will not to be surprised to learn that I am expecting a United win here.    Not since the start of the season have United been held at home, but with big Sam in charge we could find that Blackburn are hard to break down. So we back Unted here, but stagger our stake to chase value, and also take some cover on 0-0 (and possibly under 2.5 if it looks tight at the start). 

Our Trading Result:
A very tricky trade. We backed United and layed Blackburn, but after the equaliser we traded out, only managing to recoup a small profit of £14 when United got in front. Overall just £6 profit due to a back of 0-0.


Profit made on this trade = £6



Date: 21/02/09
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Teams: Barcelona V Espanyol - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Though Espanyol have an excellent recent record against Barcelona, I do not think this should be given as much weight as Barcelona's recent form.  The only slight concern might be if they decide to rest key players in view of the forthcoming Champions League fixture.  If this is the case we may play cautiously or leave alone. But if Messi and company are playing we will adapt the same strategy as the Manchester United game and chase value on Barcelona.  Just in case you were away on Mars recently, Barcelona's recent record reads: 10 wins and 1 draw, the 2-2 away to Betis last week bringing the winning sequence to a close.  I think that they will be keen to get back to winning ways today. (NB: There is an overlap in match times, so if we are still trading on United game we may not be able to get on this until later).

Our Trading Result:
We layed Espanyol with £6 and backed Barcelona with £36. Unfortuantely we got badly caught out by the red card, wish totally changed the game as Barcelona never looked the same team after this.   This meant that we were always 'chasing the game,  By some backing of epsanyol at 2-1 and trading out, we managed to reduce the loss to £60 (plus £6 on 0-0) for a total loss of £65.   Not a good day in the main trade area (slightly compensated for by good results in the 1-2-1 trades).


Profit made on this trade = -£65



Date: 24/02/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Inter Milan V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
Recently United's defence looked virtually unbreakable, and backing under 2.5 would have been a clear recommendation.  But now they have serious issues at the back which may get worse should O'Shea fail to make it. Yet United also have match winners in abundance so there is enough evidence to be cautious about backing under 2.5.   Instead, we may look to lay the draw, but it will depend upon how things shape up and we will definitely chase value. After Saturday's shocking refereeing in the Barcelona derby, I am particularly nervous about another Spanish referee who has also been involved in his fair share of controversies.

Our Trading Result:
A nice straightforward trade.  It always looked like it was going to be tight, so we backed under 2.5 with £122 at 1.53 and traded out with £122 at average odds 1.31 for overall profit of £26.


Profit made on this trade = £26



Date: 24/02/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Lyon V Barcelona - SCORE: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
Due to the aforementioned unpredictability we will adopt a similarly cautious approach here. I like the chances of Barcelona, but it is also not as clear cut as it would have been a few weeks ago.  In favour of a Barcelona win is that they can be at their best when making fast breaks from deep within their half.  Against is the fact that they have surprisingly stuttered recently in La Liga, though perhaps they have lacked motivation due to their massive lead. Lyon have begun to find some form and have the players to surprise Barcelona.  So we will again look to lay the draw, but only if we can get good value. Other options could yet be considered in-play. 

Our Trading Result:
Sometimes you have to hold your hands up and admit when you are wrong.  I really expected Barcelona to raise their game to the previous levels, but they were a great disappointment.  Having layed Lyon for £22, it became clear that Lyon were well on top after taking the lead,  This at least gave us the opportunity to back Lyon and lay them again at much lower odds to allow us to escape from a tricky position with £6 profit. (I also layed Barcelona on the half-time market, but I decided against recommending this to the in-player as it would have given a rather large liability, so this is not included in the total profit)



Profit made on this trade = £6


Date: 01/03/09
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Tottenham - SCORE: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
Given how many eggs Harry has been saving from the UEFA Cup basket we should not make the mistake of assuming that Manchester United will have an easy win.  Nevertheless I feel that United will not give up lightly the chance of chalking up the second step towards what could be an unprecedented quadruple, and it would be a surprise indeed if they were not at least level after 90 minutes.  Although Harry has done an excellent job, United should have too much fire power for them. We will need to check carefully how Welbeck and Gibson react to the pressure of a cup final but they will have plenty of players around them who have seen their share of cup finals.  If we are concerned that Spurs are on top we will trade out or consider laying the draw.  We may also takes some insurance  by backing 1-0 correct score for Spurs.

Our Trading Result:
It is always tough to lose on penalties though United should really have won this in normal time.  We layed Spurs with £41 at 5.8.  We also took some cover by backing 1-0 to Spurs with £11 at 10.5 (£3 of which was late on).  We traded out of the main market towards the end to cover for any late Spurs goal with £13 at 9.88 leaving £27 profit and £16 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £16



Date: 01/03/09
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Teams: W Bremen V B Munich - SCORE: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
Bonus trade, so no preview.

Our Trading Result:
As a bonus of the in-players, I also monitored the Bremen game, and following the sending off it looked like a good opportunity to lay Bremen.   We traded out of this slightly, and as the game wore on it looked like fatigue was playing a part so I backed 0-0 with £15 at 4.66 and layed with £9 at 2.54 for £39 profit.  This was mainly to cover the lay draw, as I felt there was a strong possibility of a late goal.   Though none came, we only had £11 liability on this and so overall a profit of £28. So a good start to March in the chat room with £44 profit overall!


Profit made on this trade = £28



Date: 04/03/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Kilmarnock V Celtic - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Kilmarnock’s form going into this game has been abysmal.  Their last win in the SPL was 12th December (a 4-2 away win to Hibs), and they have failed to win their last 4 at home, 3 of those ending in defeat  It is therefore no surprise that Kilmarnock are joint bottom of the form league (taking the last 6 games).  They also have won of the worst records against the Old Firm.  Indeed you have to go back nearly 8 years for their last victory against Celtic.  As for Celtic, they have been struggling of late to score goals.  At least that was the case until they knocked seven past St. Mirren last Saturday.  Although that was largely attributable to some dire defending, this is bound to have given them confidence.  Therefore we would expect to see a Celtic win, though a draw in not to be ignored either, We will judge our options in play.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Kilmarnock with £34.  As Kilmarnock threatened later on, we traded out with £3 on 2-1 and £10 on Kilmarnock, to still leave a £21 profit. 



Profit made on this trade = £21



Date: 04/03/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Newcastle V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Bonus trade. No preview.

Our Trading Result:
As with our last trading day, we did a bonus trade on this game, laying Newcastle with £12 for an overall profit of £11.


Profit made on this trade = £11



Date: 07/03/09
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Teams: Real Madrid V Atletico Madrid - SCORE: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
Preview From T.A. We might trade this differently.
Atletico haven't got the better of Real since 1999, and with Real on an amazing run of 10 consecutive wins, scoring 24 goals and conceding only 2 we don't fancy their chances of winning here. Atletico have had trouble against top 6 sides recently on their travels losing the majority, only winning 20% of these encounters so Real should maintain their undefeated record against Atletico this Millennium. Having watched Atletico's recent match against Barca we are a little concerned they could score here but defensively they still look to have problems so we should see Real win or at least draw here. We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If Atletico take the lead we will opt to use 1.5 our lay stake on the back side to get ourselves green on the draw and hopefully trade out after they draw level. A 1st half goal looks likely as the opening goal in both these sides respective home and away games has come before the break 91% of the time. So we will be having a small side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half. Same plan as above for the goals trade if things go wrong.

Our Trading Result:
This turned out to be a rather tricky trade.  We originally layed Atletcio, since I felt the odds on the draw were a bit high to lay (and we were about to shift to laying the draw when the goal came) but I became increasingly concerned about Real’s form, and decided to shift the loss to Real.  On reflection it would have been better to wait a bit longer as Real equalised shortly afterwards.  After the goal we just rode our luck by backing the draw and reducing our loss on Real gradually. In the end we had £44 profit on draw, reduced by £8 with cover trades on the correct score. Rather nervous last 10 minutes for us, but an absolutely fabulous game, and all credit to Atletico who almost pulled of the double over the big 2.


Profit made on this trade = £36



Date: 14/03/09
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Teams: Hibs V Hearts - SCORE: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Hearts come into this with the more solid form and Hibs have not won against their rivals in the last five, so Hearts are rightly favourites. As this is a derby we should play safe and lay the draw.  We will also back under at the start and trade out, and this strategy has certainly paid of handsomely in our last 2 Edinburgh derbies, but we cannot assume that this will finish under like these and so will be prepared to trade out quickly if necessary.

Our Trading Result:
Not match action here trading wise.  We backed under 2.5 and mainly traded out to leave just £5 profit.  Similar story on the lay draw bet where we only got on with a small amount and traded out again– so £5 profit but little consolation for the next one.


Profit made on this trade =£5



Date: 14/03/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Liverpool - SCORE: 1 - 4

My Recommendation:
Hopefully we will be able to concentrate on this game once our we are finished trading on the derby.  A couple of weeks back and United would have been nailed on to win this.  All this changed with Liverpool’s impressive performance against real Madrid, with Torres and Gerrard at their best.  Against Inter United were not at their best but still got the goals.  With the game very hard to call (alright United are still probably the likely winners), we will lay the draw, and try to get lower odds (but there will surely be some goals in this).

Our Trading Result:
We got caught out by 2 goals just after I had decided that United were well on top. The Vidic error came totally out of the blue, and right after we layed Liverpool for £22.  The only consolation was we manged to reduce our loss by backing Liverpool in the second half before the red card as it became increasingly apparent that United were not going to get back in.  But still a nasty loss of £102.  On to the next one and hopefully more successful!


Profit made on this trade = -£102



Date: 21/03/09
Time: 14.30hrs GMT
Teams: Bayern Munich V Karlsruhe - SCORE: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Bayern come into this on the back of 2 comfortable wins that show they appear to have put ear;ier poor form behind them, while Karlsruhe have lost their last 5 failing to score in any and they now looked to doomed to relegation.  With Frank Ribbery returning from injury and in need of points to try to close the gap on leaders Hertha Berlin, they should be too hot to handle for Karlsruhe.  Bayern have tended to do well against bottom 6 teams at home with 4 win and a draw, the draw coming a while back against Bochum, whom they beat 3-0 last week.  We will back Bayern to win, staggering our stake for value and trade out after a goal, If Karlrushe socre first we will back Bayern again if it is in the first half and Bayern are on top.  I would expect Karlsrube to pack their defence and try to hit Bayern on the break, so we may also take some cover on 1-0 to Karslruhe if it is still 0-0 towards the end.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Bayern with £165 at average odds 1.15 and layed Karlsruhe with £4 for £27 profit, We also covered 0-0 with £8 and 1-1 with £2 for overall £17 profit . Not a convincing performance by Bayern, but enough against a struggling team. 


Profit made on this trade = £17



Date: 28/03/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Netherlands V Scotland- SCORE: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
It pains me to say this, but I cannot see Scotland getting a result here. They have lost 7 out of the last 8 competitive away fixtures against teams in the top 20 (and Netherlands are currently ranked 3).  The exception was of course the amazing win against France, though that was against a French team that was struggling.  By contrast, the Netherlands have won every competitive home game since 2005 (when they were held to a 0-0 draw against Macedonia).  If they manage to keep tight at the they may be able to frustrate them for some time, so it may not be like the last time (6-0), but even a draw would be an achievement.  We will look to back Netherlands later on once the odds are higher; if Netherlands look in control we will also consider laying Scotland.

Our Trading Result:
Although Scotland made a good start they never really looked like doing anything.  I layed Scotland with £24 and would have back Netherlands at better than 1.4, but it was too late as Netherlands took the lead and never had a problem after it. So a total profit of £23. We also backed under with £33 but traded out for no loss well before the 2-0


Profit made on this trade = £23



Date: 01/04/09
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Teams: England V Ukraine - SCORE: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
I like Fabio Cappello:  Maybe not as somebody to have a quick pint with down the local, but certainly as a manager. You see, he has this revolutionary idea: 'Only pick players who are in form'. (I wish someone had taught that one at football manager school).  Not because they are called David Beckham. Not because the media says you have to. Not because he is left footed or likes Star War films. No, he only picks them if there is a modicum of chance that they might actually perform ON the pitch.  Of course there is one area where this revolutionary theory might break down: Form at club level has rarely been a precursor to form for England. But by instilling some discipline into the team, he seems to have been able to ensure that those who were playing well the week before would reproduce it again.  So while last year I would have avoided supporting a trade on England like the plague, I think they have finally hit upon some reliability.  It will not be easy against Ukraine, but we will wait to see how play develops before getting involved.  I do not totally rule out a draw, so I might decide to lay Ukraine rather than back England.

Our Trading Result:
And as was mooted in the preview, England were indeed reliable once more, well at least in the end.  We were in fact on a nice profit on the draw as well, but for safety’s sake were glad to see the second England goal.  We backed England with £80 at average odds 1.6 (£3 of this with the score at 1-1.) We layed Ukraine with £21 and backed the draw £32.  This gave an overall profit of £34.  What a fantastic night of football with England, Scotland, N. Ireland and Ireland all doing well (But commiserations to all the Welsh fans reading this!).    After the 2-1 for England we switched to the Scotland game – and much to my relief they held on (Fortunately we did not get involved in this one though!)



Profit made on this trade = £34



Date: 04/04/09
Time: 14.30hrs GMT
Teams: Hamburg V Hoffenheim - SCORE: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
E.T Preview used for this match.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Hoffenheim with £21.  Hamburg werenever under serious threat until near the end when they went down to 10 men. So an easy profit for us. Total Profit: £20


Profit made on this trade = £20



Date: 08/04/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Liverpool V Chelsea - SCORE: 1 - 3

My Recommendation:
We have quite a lot of recent history to look at with games between these 2 in the Champions League.  The trend has been for low scoring games, though one wonders if Liverpool’s recent scoring form may counter this.  Altogether they have been drawn together 4 times and all 8 matches have been close, with 2 wins each and 4 draws. Six of the 8 games had 1 goal or less, the exception coming in their last CL meeting last year, a 3-2 win for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the second leg.  Another close encounter can be expected, though Liverpool will be favourites to edge this. We will therefore lay the draw, trading out after a goal and also take some cover on 0-0. Unders will only be considered if it is a tight opening.

Our Trading Result:
We did not get time to lay at 0-0 except for £5, but at 1-1 we layed with a further £62 and since Chelsea were on top did not trade out to leave £67 profit on this market. That is the good news; unfortunately we were caught on the unders – as I had expected it to be much tighter. We would have traded out had the goal come about 10 minutes later, and with £10 on 0-0 we were left with a £33 loss here.



Profit made on this trade = -£33



Date: 09/04/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Hamburg V Man City- SCORE: 3 - 1

My Recommendation:
Martin Jol has got Hamburg firing on all cylinders and they are definitely better than they were about 2 months ago and currently sit joint top of the Bundesliga with Wolfsburg. At home they have been superb, scoring in 100% of their games this season only losing to Wolfsburg, winning 84% of their matches. Alot to do with this is the amazing form of rookie Mladen Petric who will probably find himself at Barca, Utd or one of the other big boys in the next few seasons. City are highly likely to concede against Hamburg's strong attacking force and considering they have only kept a clean sheet on their travels in 6% of games it looks pretty likely that the deadlock will be broken. City have frequently under achieved this season but with the likes of Wright-Phillips they definitely have the ability to trouble Hamburg so we aren't writing them off but expect a Hamburg win here. We will potentially be laying the draw and trading out after a goal from either side, other trades will be confirmed inplay.

Our Trading Result:
Well what an evening - how frustrating that I could not contact you directly today in the chat room. Although I made a nice profit in this match, I am only reporting the part about laying the draw at 1-1, as that is the only message I go thorough at the Break.
Altogether we (or I if you did not read the email in time) layed the draw with £51.  When Hamburg went 2-1, I did no trade out that point, feeling that Hamburg were on top - and indeed I backed Hamburg, but am not reporting that bit here. I was also left with £20  on 1-1 (I took a little cover when it quietend down but then traded out of it partially) which meant an overall reported profit of £31.
If you did not manage to get the message in time, do not worry, I will soon be back with another trade for you!




Profit made on this trade = £31



Date: 11/04/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Liverpool V Blackburn - SCORE: 4 - 0

My Recommendation:
We are so used to seeing Liverpool doing well in the Champions League whilst failing to deliver in the Premiership that it comes as a surprise to see the reversal of that trend in recent matches.  Although Blackburn will more than likely make a tough fight of this, I cannot see them getting a win here, especially when you consider that Liverpool remain unbeaten at Anfield and put 9 goals past Villa and Real Madrid in their last 2.  Given the fact that a draw cannot be ruled out, we may consider laying Blackburn. We will trade out if Blackburn, who will be missing a number of players, look like causing a surprise.  We will also wait to see whether Gerrard makes it before finalising the strategy.

Our Trading Result:
A nice straightforward one to start our trading day. We layed Blackburn with £28 at 13.5. At 1-0 felt an easy win from Liverpool wa on the cards so backed Liverpool with £77 at 1.11 for a total profit of £34 (Also layed Liverpool with £41 at 1.02 when 2-0).


Profit made on this trade = £34



Date: 11/04/09
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Teams: Chelsea V Bolton - SCORE: 4 - 3

My Recommendation:
Additional trade for inplay members.

Our Trading Result:
After we secured the profit on the Liverpool game decided to do a bonus trade on this game as really expected a comfortable Chelsea win. And tell me anyone who would have disputed that at 4-0!  Incredible comeback from Bolton, but they held on (Certainly made it exciting for us, though we had only a small loss on the draw).  We backed the draw with £12 at 5.35 (at 0-0) and Chelsea at average odds 1.38 and then again at 1-0. At 2-0 we did a partial trade out, and altogether we had a £18 profit at the end on this. I was highly amused when Paul Merson said "Bolton are back in it" when it went 4-1, but he obviously knows something we do not. We also looked at the Roma game, but as the goals kept coming we decided to get out completely (leaving a small profit on Lazio, but will not count this)




Profit made on this trade = £18



Date: 14/04/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Chelsea V Liverpool - SCORE: 4 - 4

My Recommendation:
Normally I do not like matches that already seem decided, but think that both Chelsea and Liverpool will be highly motivated to get another good result.

Our Trading Result:
I have to hold my hands up and say I never expected 4-4!  We did not lay the draw due to the high odds and at one stage we were really struggling to find any profit, and with the game going from end to end I plumped for the draw, and while it might have been a lucky call it was thankfully the correct call, though we were sitting on a rather nasty loss had Chelsea won.  Nevertheless, we ended up with £38 profit on the main market. Before the start I felt there would be goals (maybe 3 or 4 but certainly not 8!), however the tight opening lured me into backing 0-0 and under, so overall we had a marginal loss of £2. Probably the hardest game to read for a while (and the most excting), so we are happy to come through without a large loss!



Profit made on this trade = -£2


Date: 15/04/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Porto V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
After yesterday’s game, I do not think we can necessarily expect a quiet, little restful game here to recover our irregular pulses.  We can expect goals here, though anything between 1 and 10 inclusive seems not totally fanciful after last night’s amazing game.  Indeed, the Champions League statistics do bear this out, so even if I see both teams assembling on the half-way line to discuss their plans for dinner during the first 10 minutes we will be avoiding under 2.5 here. With second leg goal-less draws a rarity in the Champions League, and both teams well capable of scoring, the only course of action will be to lay the draw, trying to chase value here.   We may not wait as long as yesterday, however, so that we do not get caught out by an early goal.

Our Trading Result:
Once again the early goal and once again did not get a chance to get on the lay draw completely, but we did manage to match £15 at average odds just under 3.45.  After the goal I thought United looked in command and likely to add to their lead, so we backed them with £77 at 1.48.  The strategy almost paid off handsomely when Vidic decided to take 2 points for the conversion rather than 1 for the goal by blasting over the bar from close range.  We subsequently traded out of both trades, and a similar strategy with lay / /back on Porto brought a total profit of £19 – and a nice relaxing one after last night!


Profit made on this trade = £19



Date: 18/04/09
Time: 17.15hrs GMT
Teams: Arsenal V Chelsea - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
This is the 5th time these two have met since the Millennium in the FA Cup. All the previous encounters have been won by Arsenal. Personally this is what we expect to see again here with Arsenal returning to form, scoring well and looking strong defensively. Chelsea despite being superb up front have looked suspect defensively and this is likely to be the deciding factor. An Arsenal win is also supported by their record on neutral turf which has seen them avoid defeat in 88% of games winning the majority. H2H both sides have scored in 5 of their last 6 meeting which is what we expect to see here. A low scoring game is strongly support in the stats but with these 1st leg semi's usually seeing a winner inside 90 min's and both sides likely to score we are a little concerned about backing under 2.5 goals here. I will confirm the trading plan inplay.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with just £12 at just over 3.2. We were planning to lay for a lot more, but had decided to wait as a goal was not looking likely; on reflection probably should have got on with a bit more, but after 1-1 we layed the draw again.  Well into second half I decided that a goal was looking less likely so we covered our liability by backing 1-1; unfortunately another goal keeping ricket caught us out as and though we made £40 on main market we were still trading out of the 1-1 when it went 2-1. we hbacked Chelsea considerably at the end to increase our profit on the main, but overall a £10 loss.




Profit made on this trade = -£10



Date: 18/04/09
Time: 19.30hrs GMT
Teams: Getafe V Barcelona - SCORE: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Bonus trade due to small loss on previous game.

Our Trading Result:
Given the slightly unfortunate loss on the last one I decided to do a bonus trade.  Barcelona were in total and utter control from when we joined this, so decided to lay Getaffe with £32.  We adjusted slightly in second half, thinking we might be able to increase our profit on Barca, but as Getafe improved slightly in second half traded out again, still leaving a £32 profit.  The only miracle is how this finished 1-0 not 10-0, but still a nice profit to make up for The FA Cup!



Profit made on this trade = £32



Date: 26/04/09
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Teams: Lille V Marseilles - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
For the first time in 8 years the French title looks like heading out of Lyon. And a win from Marseilles today would establish them as firm favourites to capture Les Gonnes’ crown.  Marseilles have the best record away to top half teams, undefeated with 3 wins and 4 draws.  They are also the form team in Ligue 1, having won 5 in a row and undefeated since 1st February.  But Lille will not be easy pickings, and drew 2-2 in the reverse fixtures.  They are also undefeated at home to top half teams, with 5 wins and 2 draws.  Head-to-head Lille have the edge (2 wins, 3 draws 1 defeat)  So we will be best advised to opt for the safer lay of the draw, trading out after a goal for either side.  With the draw odds at 3.2 (at last check), we should be able to profit after a goal from either side. The only thing that might threaten a profit here is the chance of a 0-0 draw; Marseilles have been involved in 3, while Lille have had 4, so we will also take some cover on this.   A tight opening may lead to a side trade on under 2.5, trading out after 20-25 minutes. NB: You might want to lay the draw before the match with £20, at 3.2 or better, in case the odds increase prior to kick off.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw after the goal we traded and were stitting on a modest profit on Marseilles which we subsequently increased to £39 by backing ad laying them and covering the draw. We also took £9 cover on 0-0; We backed under 2.5 with £55 and  decided to leave a liability of £27 - as at the time a goal did not look likely and this gave us extra cover in case of 0-0. After the 2 goals we backed more with the idea of trading out- although I managed to reduce my loss on this for an overall profit, many did not and were left with a £50 loss on this market, so to be fair I will report this- making an overall loss of £20
Overall still a good month, but slightly unfortunate tonight.



Profit made on this trade = -£20



Date: 02/05/09
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Teams: Real Madrid V Barcelona - SCORE: 2 - 6

My Recommendation:
Unlike when we traded on the reverse fixture, when I correctly predicted a win for Barcelona, we cannot be so confident that an admittedly brilliant Barcelona team will come out on top here.  The reason is that Real’s form since Ramos took over has easily been the best in La Liga, with 14 wins and a draw since their 2-0 defeat at the Nou Camp.  Barcelona have also shown occasional defensive lapses, but with Messi on the park we are not going to back against them.  The current high draw odds mean that we may have to rely on a later rather than an early goal to profit, but laying the draw should be the safest option to at least break even. 

Our Trading Result:
What an absolutely scintillating performance from Barcelona. Chelsea must be a bit worried!  At 4-2 I was telling the in-players that this was one of the best performances I had ever seen at club level, but I realised after that I was probably understating the case.  Ironically we did not get on the lay draw, but after it went 2-1 Barca really began to motor so I advised backing Barcelona on the Half-time market with £200 at 1.25..seconds before it went 3-1. This is the third time we missed out by seconds, (I managed to match the half-time market as well, but did not count this as the in-players only had seconds to get matched, and I do not know anyne with such quick fingers!) but it did not matter for so dominant were Barca that we got on with £300 at 1.18 for £51 profit.
Nice.



Profit made on this trade = £51



Date: 02/05/09
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Teams: Liverpool V Newcastle - SCORE: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
Having now watched Newcastle carefully in their last 4 fixtures under Shearer, it is not hard to see why they are struggling.  Lack of goals and overall lack of quality, with even players of the standing of Owen really struggling, lie at the root of their demise. So although I will be sorry if it happens, I cannot see Newcastle avoiding the drop. Against a Liverpool team increasingly desperate to keep their faint hopes of a first Premiership title, I can see only one result here, though Newcastle will probably put up some stern resistance given their even more desperate situation.  However, we will decide our strategy in-play.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Newcastle with £36.  Had Newcastle threatened we would have reduced our liability but such was Liverpool’s dominance that it was never in doubt, and the game merely confirmed my earlier view that it will take a miracle (the messiah?) to save Newcastle now.


Profit made on this trade = £36



Date: 02/05/09
Time: 15.30hrs GMT
Teams: Rangers V Hearts - SCORE: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
Rangers have won 7 and drawn 1 of their last home game against Hearts, the last draw coming in the last meeting, when Rangers blew a 2-0 half-time lead.  With Rangers needing 3 points, regardless of the earlier Celtic result, a narrow home win or a draw is the likely outcome here.  Further support for this is found in the fact that the Gers have the best defensive record in the SPL, and they have finally found some scoring form, However, we will decide our strategy in-play and for sure Rangers can expect a tough game.

Our Trading Result:
Though ‘Gers have played better and Hearts made it a very tight, edgy game as expected, our profits were never really threatened here.  We layed Hearts with £33 at 9.7.  We traded out mid-way in the second half with £2 on Hearts at 160, for an overall profit of £30.


Profit made on this trade = £30



Date: 05/05/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Arsenal V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 1 - 3

My Recommendation:
We will decide our plan inplay.

Our Trading Result:
We did not get time to get on the lay draw as the odds were rather high, but again it did not matter for us.  We layed Arsenal on the half-time market with £20 (and United dominating at 1-0).  Again many of the in-traders did not get time to get on this before 2-0, and usually I do not count it (our reported profits for the last 3 matches would have been even higher as it seems to becoming a regular occurrence!).  However, as the advice was given a whole minute before the goal (and not 10-20 seconds before the goal as the previous 3!!) I will count it this time (But I was only partially matched with £13). At 2-0 we backed United heavily, as I felt they were good value given their dominance, eventually having a total of £230 at 1.14 (some of that coming at 3-1 when many had left thinking it was over –well it was, but this only made a small difference to our final figures).  At 3-0 and 3-1 later on we also traded out, in the end laying Arsenal with £117 at 1.04 and backing the draw with £4 at 30.  Finally, we covered the 2-2 (when the score was 2-0) with £2, to give an overall profit £28, which with the half-time market brought overall £41 profit. 


Profit made on this trade = £41



Date: 06/05/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Chelsea V Barcelona - SCORE: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
We will decide our plan inplay.

Our Trading Result:
Once again we did not get on the lay draw and once again it did not matter (seems to be a habit!), as were waiting for the odds to drift down to 3.4, which was probably just about 5 minutes away when Chelsea scored. I was fairly impressed by Chelsea’s defence, so we layed Barcelona with £24 on the half-time market, trading out later with £10.  We also layed Barcelona with £28 on the main, later trading out (some after the red card), to leave £20 profit and £34 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £45



Date: 09/05/09
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Teams: Rangers V Celtic - SCORE: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
We will decide our plan inplay.

Our Trading Result:
Needless to say I enjoyed this one!  I am not yet making any predictions for who will win the title, but this obviously was a vital result. We layed the draw with £42 at average odds 3.06 (Some were matched with £39 before goal). After the goal, with Rangers defence looking solid, I was always fairly confident that the draw would be the worst case scenario, so as well as trading out slightly by backing the draw, we also layed Celtic and backed and layed Rangers.  Our final figures were: Layed draw with £42 at 3.06, backed draw with £37 at 4.41; Backed Rangers with £55 at 1.36; layed Rangers with £39 at 1.24 and layed Celtic with £18 at 13.5, for a total of £32 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £32



Date: 09/05/09
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Manchester City - SCORE: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
We will decide our plan inplay.

Our Trading Result:
We layed City with £34; City never really threatened, even when United took the foot off the gas at 2-0, so no trade out was warranted and overall a straight forward £32 profit here.


Profit made on this trade = £32



Date: 15/08/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Chelsea V Hull - SCORE: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
We will lay Hull to begin – as the odds have drifted rather high, just lay with £12 for now; otherwise, if comfortable with the higher liability, lay with £24. If Hull look more dangerous than expected, we will trade out a little by backing Hull. If still 0-0 later on, and Chelsea are in charge, we will consider backing Chelsea at higher odds.   Otherwise will just take the profit on the lay.  If still 0-0 near end we may cover the last minute goal by backing correct score 1-0 to Hull.

Our Trading Result:
Hull kept this “interesting” (or should I say Chelsea did, with some incredible misses in front of goal); We layed Hull with £24 on main market and £32 on Half-time market.  We backed £2 on Hull before end of half for overall profit of £52.  (Some who took option for smaller stakes will have had £40 profit).  In the end Hull may have come away with a lucky point (but that’s why I decided to lay them rather than back Chelsea in what looked a home “banker”).   


Profit made on this trade = £52



Date: 16/08/09
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Teams: Man Utd V Birmingham - SCORE: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
We cannot rule out another tight match (on the scoreline at least), so we will lay Birmingham with £36 as I expect, worse case scenario, a draw, but more likely a United win.

If Birmingham socre first in first half we will consider laying them again if United look on top.As usual, use half that stake if you prefer a lower liability. Summary, lay Birmingham with £36.

Our Trading Result:
Game went rather as expected; we layed Birmingham and later on backed with £120 when it was 1-0 (at a time when another goal looked likely).  When none materialised we traded out of the back bet, leaving £34 profit overall.


Profit made on this trade = £34



Date: 22/08/09
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Teams: Arsenal V Portsmouth - SCORE: 4 - 1

My Recommendation:
You will probably not need me to tell you that Pompey have made a diabolical start to the season. Thus far, they have not been able to fill the gaps, most notably with Crouch's transfer to Spurs. Against this, Arsenal look highly effective and arguably even more so away from the Emirates, when teams feel obliged to have a go at them leaving nice gaps at the back. 

Our strategy will be to lay Portsmouth and possibly back Arsenal if they are dominant later on and therefore at higher odds. Should Pompey score first early on we will consider laying Pompey again, trading out later if necessary.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Portsmouth with £34.  I decided to go for the lay (despite the large liability) as I felt the only danger would be if Arsenal dominated without scoring; it was noticeable last season that they scored 6 more goals away than at home. We would have traded out partially had Pompey looked a threat at 0-0 – but this result was never in doubt from the kick off so we did not trade out and another nice profit for us.




Profit made on this trade = £32



Date: 23/08/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Hearts V Rangers - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Prior to Thursday night I probably would not have selected this match as Hearts often give the ‘Gers a tough game, then I saw their Europa League qualifier against Zagreb on Thursday night and it must have been painful viewing for Hearts fans as I have rarely seen a worse performance from them in Europe.  Having said this, we need to be careful not to assume they will not give ‘Gers a tough time here, but unless they field an entirely different team, and given their recent form,  I do not see them repeating their performance last year when they beat Rangers 2-1. 

Strategy : Lay Hearts with probably a small amount to begin with and then decide in-play whether to increase this or trade out. 


Our Trading Result:
We layed Hearts wih £10, but when rangers went down to 10 men it threwmy plans somewhat and I felt that Hearts would get a draw or a win. Both turned out to be wrong calls, though we di trade out more towards the en as Gers looked more dangerous, but still a nasty loss of £100.  Sorry, I go this wrong  - perhaps it is best not to trade when one's own team is involved!

We always get it back and with interest so stick with it!



Profit made on this trade = -£100



Date: 23/08/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Fulham V Chelsea - SCORE: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
Roy Hodgson rightly received the plaudits for his superb 7th place finish, when most punters had as usual written them off as relegation fodder.  Their record last season against the big 4 also commands respect: 2 wins, 1 draw (against Chelsea) and a defeat.

But I am suitably impressed enough by Chelsea’s new resilience, grinding out results even when playing poorly, and believe that they should get at least a draw here. If Fulham look dangerous I may change strategy in-play, otherwise we will lay them, possibly trading out after a goal for Chelsea and laying them further should Fulham score first. 


Our Trading Result:
we lay fulham with £32 and backed them after the goal with £133 at 1.17 , later on redcing the liability on thedraw with £5 for £47 profit. Normal service is resmed.


Profit made on this trade = £47


 

Date: 12/09/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Stoke V Chelsea - SCORE: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Stoke have made a good start to the season, with 2 wins and a draw from the first 4. However Chelsea should at least get a draw and more likely another win. I base this on their faultless start to the season, and even more their superb away record, particularly playing away to teams of a similar rank to Stoke last season their record is just as impressive, with 6 wins and only 1 loss (against Spurs).

We will lay Stoke however in respect of their good start. If Stoke score first early on then we will consider laying Stoke again.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Stoke with £23. As planned, since Chelsea were still looking the stronger team, we layed Stoke with a further £23 at 3.3 after Stoke took the lead. The goal for 1-1 increased Chelsea's dominance, and so we layed £14 again, hoping for an early breakthrough in the second half. When none materialised, we traded out gradually in the 2 nd half with £23. So overall laid Stoke with £60 at 8.28 and backed Sotke with £23 at 17.91 for £35 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £35


 

Date: 12/09/09
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester City V Arsenal - SCORE: 4 - 2

My Recommendation:
Regulars will know that i sometimes trade on more than 1 match where a suitable opportunity arises. The idea is also that we trade out of one either when we have secrued a profit or when one more risky than anticipated -  Iam not expecting the Stoke game to be like that, but will do so if necessary. The City - Arsenal game should have goals.  With City missing Tevez, and given that poor old City do not have the resources for an adequate replacement (!),Arsenal may just edge this one. But, seriously, it is impossible to predict, so we will go for a safe lay of the draaw here, trying to chase value and trading out after a goal for either side.  Although I expect goals, I will not trade on overs as it might be one market too many to manage.

Our Trading Result:
As I expected, a very open game, particularly in 2 nd half. But as I was chasing value only layed draw with £5 before goal. Also had cover of £5 on 0-0. In second half layed Arsenal (and backed again at higher odds) to give an overall profit of £9 and £4 profit overall.



Profit made on this trade = £4




Date: 12/09/09
Time: 17.45hrs GMT
Teams: Lazio V Juventus- SCORE: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
This game is also just waiting for a lay of the draw. Both teams started well, and Lazio may turn out to be the surpsire package in Serie A this season, so thoughI favour a Juve win slightly, I have sufficient respect for Lazio at home to play the safer lay draw, trading out as usual


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with just £15 and backed 0-0 with £4 for cover. The intention was to lay with more, but I was concerned by the lack of clear cur chances and when there was one neither side looked too good. This proved correct as the breakthrough did not come until late on. However after the goal I backed Juventus with £65 as it seemed to transform them and they looked like adding a second; we  traded out towards the end prior to the 2-0 this left just £12 profit on main market and £8 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £8



Date: 12/09/09
Time: 17.45hrs GMT
Teams: Zurich V Real Madrid 2 - 5 and Besiktas V Manchester United 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Advised inplay.

Our Trading Result:
Real Game: I suspected that Real would run out easy winners, though with respect to their notoriously leaky defence I decided to lay Zurich with £24. The defence lived up to billing by letting in 2 from 3-0 up, but the trade was never in any danger.

Utd Game:We layed Besiktas with £24 but traded out later with £5 and then £2 after the goal just to play safe with this one, though probably we need not have as whilst it wasn't one of United's better performances they never looked under threat.


Profit made on this trade = £37



Date: 30/09/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams:Manchester u v. Wolfsburg 2 - 1
Teams:Real Madrid v. Marseilles 3 - 0

Teams:Appoel Nicosea V Chelsea 0 - 1

My Recommendation:

Manchester u v. Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg were the shock Bundesliga champions last season and thier start to this season has showed it was no fluke.  But CL is still a different prospect, and while I do not think it will be an easy game, a United win or at worst a draw should be the outcome here. We will do cautious lay of Wolfsburg and adjust as necessary. As usual an early goal for Wolfsburg will mean that we consider laying them agan if United on top. If United take the lead and Wolfsburg are coming back into it we wll trade out.

Real Madrid v. Marseilles
Marseilles recent form has not inspired confidence whilst RM have targeted the CL along with La Liga. Early signs indicate that this is a different breed of 'gallactcio" from the last one and I expect a home win, so will back Real at higher odds id possible (if still level) though may also consider a lay of Marseilles depending on how the action unfolds

Appoel Nicosea V Chelsea
Bonus Trade so no preview

Our Trading Result:

Real Madrid 3 Marseilles 0
Very easy win. We layed Marseilles with £24 and this was never under threat.

Total Profit: £22

Manchester United 2 Wolfsburg 1
This was always likely to be the tighter of our 2 selections and so it proved. We layed Wolfsburg with £24. Even when United went behind I was only slightly concerned as United were for the most part in control without dominating, And they did not keep u waiting long for the equaliser but we played safe by trading out with £5.

Total Profit: £17

Appoel Nicosea 0 Chelsea 1
As regulars will know, I often do bonus trades when the opportunity arises. And contrary to the commentators, I felt Chelsea looked quite comfortable at 1-0 and more likely to get the next goal than Apoel. So we backed them with £155 at 1.14 but took over towards the end with £2 on 1-1 for an overall profit of £18 and relatively comfortable total for the evening of £57.

Total Profit: £18




Profit made on this trade = £57



Date: 04/10/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Rangers V Celtic 2 - 1
Teams: Chelsea V Liverpool 2 - 0

My Recommendation:

Rangers V Celtic
The recent pattern of these games has been to be tight affairs, with slightly less goals than a few years back. As usual it will be predictably unpredictable, but laying the draw at lower odds should recoup a profit. We may cover the 0-0 if it looks tight, but I think at least one goal is the only safe prediction: there hasn't been a goalless Old Firm derby at Ibrox for 11 years.

Chelsea V Liverpool
Both teams have stuttered lately; but all this will be forgotten and like the last one, I would not like to pick a winner. So again we lay the draw, chasing lower odds.


Our Trading Result:

Rangers 2 Celtic 1
We only layed the draw for £10 but after the goal we back Gers with £40 but layed off through the 2 nd half. We also layed Celtic £20 on the half-time market. In the end we had £44 profit, with £5 cover on 0-0 for £39 profit overall.

Total Profit: £39

Chelsea 2 Liverpool 0
We layed the draw with £30 and backed 0-0. After trading out we were left with £19 profit for £19 overall with the £5 back of 0-0.

Total Profit: £14


Profit made on this trade = £53



Date: 10/10/09
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Teams: Denmark V Sweden 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Denmark are the surprise top team in the group and only need a draw in this game, but Sweden desperately need a win.  Given the (friendly?) rivalry between these 2 I do not think either will hold back too much, though we cannot rule out a low scoring match as historically this has been the case. Nevertheless I expect 1 goal from either side, and therefore we should be able to trade out easily by laying the draw - hopefully at odds of around 3.0

Our Trading Result:
We were quite unlucky here, as a goal either any time up to 10 minutes earlier or later would have ensured a profit. We layed the draw with £54 at average odds of 2.57; but the longer it went without real openings the longer 0-0 became a real possibility, so we were forced to back 0-0 as cover with £76, though we were going to shortly trade out of that, for no loss on 0-0 and what would have been a large profit had we got a late goal. Alas, the goal came at exactly the wrong time so had an overall loss of £24.


Profit made on this trade = -£24



Date: 17/10/09
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Teams: St Johnstone V Rangers - Score: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
St Johnstone are back in the SPL after a long absence.They did manage a first away win last time away to Hamilton, but otherwise they have struggled and Rangers should have too much for them in this game.

We will back Rangers or possibly lay St Johnstone if it looks like they are holding out well.

Our Trading Result:
Rangers made a slow start, so we decided to delay our trade, which proved a good move when St Johnstone took the lead.  This allowed us to lay St Jonhsonte at lower odds of less than 3.0 with £25. When Gers equalised they looked to have better control of the match, so we layed them again with £9, trading out with just £2 for £30 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £30


 

Date: 21/10/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams:Chelsea V Ath Madrid 4 - 0
Teams:Real Madrid V AC Milan 2 - 3

My Recommendation:

Chelsea V Ath Madrid
Chelsea's recent record in the CL group stages read 9 wins and 3 draws.   And they have started with 2  from 2 in the CL  this season.  Though they have dropped points in the Premiership recently, it was really failing to take chances rather than not creating them that cost them against Villa. Atletico had an even worse result last weekend, losing 3-0 to Osasuna and they now have only 7 points from 6 La Liga games. With Chelsea keen to get their season back on track, a win for the Blues is a good possibility, though we may wait to see how they start before getting involved and may lay Atletico.  We also need to look out for with Diego Forlan rested and Sergio Aguero who can pose threats, but I expect Atletico's leaky defence to do the trick for our trade

Real Madrid V AC Milan
We may decide to use this one as an alternative. Milan have had a poor start to the season, though they did manage a comeback victory over Roma at the weekend. Real's attack looks unstoppable, but their defence is still leaky and we cannot rule out Milan pulling off a surprise though the 'smart money' is on a home win. Therefore, if we do get involved we will do so cautiously, but may consider laying Milan if they take the lead; if Madrid are on top we may reverse that by laying them immediately.


Our Trading Result:

Chelsea V Ath Madrid 4 - 0

Very straightforward win for us. We layed Atletico with £26 at around 9 average odds and after it went 1-0 decided to wait before trading out in the hope that Chelsea would score again, they duly obliged for a £25 profit.

Total Profit: £25

Real Madrid V AC Milan 2 - 3
I was keeping an eye on this game throughout, and when the Chelsea game went 2-0 it presented an opportunity to get involved. As Milan looked threatening, it was always on the cards that they would cause an upset. After Milan went 2-1 Madrid looked stunned, so we layed them £32 at 6.6 trading out with £7 at around 10 average odds. At 2-2 it looked like it could go either way, so to eliminate the liability we layed the draw with £40 to ensure, at worst, only a small loss should Madrid take the lead. When Milan scored we were celebrating a good win and were disappointed when the referee ruled it out (why?). But justice was done when it went 3-2 for a nice £63 profit.

Total Profit: £63


Profit made on this trade = £88



Date: 24/10/09
Teams:Chelsea V Blackburn 5 - 0
Teams:Inter V Catania 2 - 1

My Recommendation:

Chelsea V Blackburn
Chelsea will probably not have an easy game here, but I think that they will have learnt from their last 2 Premiership games and though a draw might not be a shock result an away win certainly would.
Nevertheless we will pay Blackburn some respect by waiting to see how they start before wading in, and we may also take a side trade on unders if it is tight at the beginning (but likely with a quick trade out if it gets open)

Inter V Catania
No preview but the trading advise was to lay Catania with £15. If Catania score first lay again with £15. If Inter score as expected, then back Catania with £2 to reduce liability. If Catania are ahead near last 10min's then split loss by backing Catania


Our Trading Result:

Chelsea V Blackburn

The odds were not favourable so we only layed Blackburn with £7 and backed Chelsea at 1-0 with £55 for £10 profit. We backed under but then traded out as it became open for only £5 and overall a £5 profit

Total Profit: £10

Inter V Catania
As expected Inter dominated. We layed Catania with £15 and after 1-0 Inter were totally on top so backed them again with £122 at 1.11(covering the draw with £3 at 11.5. After 2-0 there seemed no way back for Cataia, nevertheless we also covered the draw again just in case by backing it with £2 at 90 for an overal profit of £22

Total Profit: £22


Profit made on this trade = £32



Date: 31/10/09
Time: 17.30hrs GMT
Teams: Man Utd V Blackburn - Score: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
Usual plan for game of this type.

If United are on top we will lay Blackburn immediately.  If Blackburn look threatening we will wait.  Should Blackburn take the lead early on lay them again unless something unusual is happening. 

I expect a United win but in case it is tighter than expected we will not back United. If Blackburn are ahead late on we would split the loss by backing Blackburn - but given current form this is highly unlikely.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Blackburn with £24 - no real dramas as Blackburn never threatened. We did get involved in the Ossasuna game by laying them with £32 -I decided it was getting a bit risky so we backed out of this one; though we would have won, I think the goal at the end for 1-1 proved Osasuna could be dangerous so probably the correct call. Still, overall a £23 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £23



Date: 31/10/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Seville V Stuttgart 1- 1 Arsenal V AZ 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
In case of Stuttgart game, they are really struggling in the Bundesliga and this form has been reflected so far in the Champions League, whilst Seville are storming ahead and not likely to let up.

We will lay Stuttgart or back Seville deciding actual strategy in play

For the Arsenal game 2 scenarios are likely: 1) An easy win for Arsenal 2) A very tight game with either a narrow win or a draw

As the odds are not ideal, we may need to check it out carefully before getting involved, so I expect to start in Seville!

Our Trading Result:

Seville V Stuttgart

We layed Stuttgart with £24 at around at around 8 and after Seville took the lead backed Stuttgart with £2 at 26. At 1-1 we layed Stuttgart with £12 but took cover on the 1-2 with £7, for an overall profit of £25

Total Profit: £25

Lyon V Liverpool

Instead we focused on this one, as I felt Liverpool were showing more of their traditional good away form in Europe. So we layed Lyon with £33 at 3 and traded out again with just £8 at around 4.5 for a £22 profit.

Total Profit: £22


Profit made on this trade = £47



Date: 05/11/09
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Teams: Hamburg V Celtic - Score: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
No trading plan given pre-match, decision made by what was physically going on during the early stages of the match.

Our Trading Result:
No dramas here: Hamburg were for the most part in control but disappointed in front of goal. We layed Celtic with £25 at 7.4 and traded out during last 15 minutes with £9 at around 20 (average odds) for £15 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £15



Date: 07/11/09
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Teams: Hearts V Hibs - Score: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
Hibs, currently 2 nd in the SPL, are the form team coming into this Edinburgh derby, having won 4 and drawn 2 in the last 6. But, cliches at the ready, this is a derby and anything can happen. Overall head-2-head shows not much to choose between them, though Hibs won the last 2. The main pattern has been tight games, with few goals: the last 9 have shown less than 2.5 goals. Though I haven't often attached the under's market this season, it will be hard to resist backing under 2.5 should the opening look tight. But I will prefer to trade out again. The other trades will most likely be to lay the draw, possibly taking some cover on 0-0.

Our Trading Result:
A low scoring game always looked likely, and it soon became apparent that 0-0 would was on the cards as well so we left the lay draw alone. We backed under 2.5 with £99 at 1.66 and layed with £122 at average odds of 1.21 (having begun to trade out late in the first half) to leave £37 profit. We also backed 0-0 with £6 at 9.2 and layed with £23 at 2.12 (we threw in an extra lay of £20 at 1.05 in case we got lucky with the late free-kick from Hearts), to leave £21 profit and £58 profit overall.


Profit made on this trade = £58



Date: 07/11/09
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Teams: Wolves V Arsenal - Score: 0 - 4

My Recommendation:
Arsenal's recent form suggests an easy away win. Yet given its an away game I may plump for laying Wolves, to be decided in-play.

Our Trading Result:
Arsenal started like a snail, so we decided to play safe and just layed Wolves for £8 at around 8.4. To be honest, I was a bit concerned that Wolves might take the lead, but as so often happens in games like this Arsenal scored with practically their first meaningful attack of the half, thanks to generous defending from Wolves. After this I could see that the game had changed and more spaces were appearing in the Wolves defence, so we backed Arsenal with £155 at 1.18. Our play was generously rewarded with 2 more Arsenal goals. We finished by trading out again, laying Arsenal with £100 at 1.01 - never hurts to be cautious! This still left a £31 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £31


Date: 08/11/09
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Teams: Falkirk V Celtic - Score: 3 - 3

My Recommendation:
Falkirk only survived relegation by winning their last match last season. Their form this season suggests that it will be another struggle to stay up. Their record against Celtic is also fairly poor having lost the last 6. In previous seasons I would have strongly backed the away draw, but Celtic's recent form suggests it will be safer to lay Falkirk.

Our Trading Result:
After a pedestrian first half when Celtic played really poorly, things really heated up after Celtic missed a penalty at the end of the first half. We layed Falkirk with £26. At 2-1 to Falkirk needless to say some of the in-players were getting nervous, but there was still plenty of time and sure enough Celtic came back into it right away; at 2-2 I felt Celtic would close it out so we layed Falkirk again with £12, reducing liability by backing Falkirk with £4 at 120 at 3-2 to Celtic, for a total profit of £33. Our decision not to back Celtic proved to be correct for sure.



Profit made on this trade = £33


Date: 08/11/09
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Teams: Chelsea V Manchester Utd - Score: 3 - 3

My Recommendation:
As usual it will be hard to pick a winner here, but we usually get at least one or two goals and therefore will lay the draw at lower odds. We will trade out after a goal from either team and try to get lower average odds on the lay draw to ensure a profit. Its possible that we will take a small amount of cover on 0-0 if it looks like a tight game - but I will be surprised that even if we get a cagey opening it does not open out later on.


Our Trading Result:
The game started quite cagey so we backed under 2.5 with £40 at 1.77, trading out later on with £40 at average odds of 1.4 for £14 profit. We started with £6 cover on 0-0, but increased this with £12 later on and just before the goal we took a little more, ending up with £34 on this Market. Yes, this timing was a little unfortunate, as otherwise we would have made a larger profit and we were about to lay the 0-0. But by this time we had layed the draw with £43 at average odds of 2.77, having gradually layed the draw at decreasing odds throughout the game; and after the 1-0 Chelsea looked solid so we backed them with £34 at 1.24, trading out again by laying them at 1.18 and lower and backing the draw slightly. This left £42 profit on Chelsea. We also took a little cover on the 1-1 (£4) at 15 average odds, this left an unfortunate loss of £38 on the correct score, but an overall profit of £18.



Profit made on this trade = £18


Date: 14/11/09
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Teams: Ireland V France - Score: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
It should be a good opportunity to lay the draw, both teams will be looking for a good result here and we should get at least one goal allowing us to trade out, though its hard to say who will come out on top.


Our Trading Result:
The match went fairly much according to plan. A tight first half followed by more of the same in the second, so we backed under 2.5 with £120 at 1.49 and traded out with the same amount at 1.27 average odds for £25 profit. We backed 0-0 with £6, later increasing this to £22 but trading out again before the goal to eventually leave just £3 loss on this market. We layed the draw with £32 at average odds 2.79; after the goal we backed the draw with £12 at average odds 8.2 and also backed France with £50 at 1.18 and layed them with £39 at 1.11 to leave £23 profit on this market and overall £45 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £45


Date: 22/11/09
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Teams: Dundee V Celtic - Score: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
Given Celtic's recent form, only one win in the last 5 SPL, and the fact that this is a traditionally hard fixture, we will need to be cautious.

We will lay the draw at lower odds initially and decide other strategies in play

Our Trading Result:
I originally planned to lay the draw but Celtic started the game much better than I had seen them in recent fixtures, so we layed United with £25 at 4.4. Despite Celtic's dominance they needed a penalty to take the lead. After the goal we traded out by backing United with £2 at 65. A superb late rally from United saw them take the game 2-1 and so we finsihed with a £42 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £42

Date: 29/11/09
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Teams: Arsenal V Chelsea - Score: 0 - 3

My Recommendation:
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that we should get some goals in this game. Chelsea have the edge on head-2-head and will be seeking to protect their 100 per cent home record against an Arsenal team that is still smarting from the loss of Van Persie. Though the home side will be expected to win, it should not be forgotten that Arsenal are the Premiership's top scorers with36 goals, so we will lay the draw, trading out after a goal to either team and trying to chase value.

Our Trading Result:
The old master (Ferguson) was probably right when he said the Premiership would be a 2 horse race between United and Chelsea by the second half of the season, though the way Chelsea are going its going to take something of a form dip to stop them. We layed the draw gradually getting better odds of 2.97 with £36. At 2-0 I was reasonably confident that Chelsea would close the game out, so we backed Chelsea with £144 at 1.14, but we paid Arsenal the respect of later trading out by backing the draw with £6 at average odds 22 and laying Chelsea with £91 at 1.08 average odds to leave £41 overall profit. We also got involved in the over/ under market which we mainly traded out of for just -£3 and overall £38 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £38


Date: 03/12/09
Time: 20.05hrs GMT
Teams: Fulham V CSKA Sofia - Score: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Fulham under Roy Hodgson have developed a fairly justified reputation for being tough to beat at home and they were unlucky not to get more than 1 point from their last 2 games against Roma in the Europa league.

By contrast, Sofia have had a pretty poor Europa League campaign.

We will therefore look to lay them, perhaps just with a small amount to begin with and then get in with more if it looks like Fulham are in charge

Usual trade out plan after a goal from Fulham and if Sofia score first will look to lay them again if its early on.

Our Trading Result:
Strange one this; I expected a low scoring game so backed under 2.5 with £130 at 1.9.  But first 15 mins contradcited this with a penalty miss, hitting post and a goal. We did trade out a bit but were left with rather too much for cmofort at 1-0.  Though we would have won a lot it was the correct decsion as it is far too risky to leave a large lability on under for too long.
Still we left £4 profit on this after the trade out. We were similarly cautious on main market, layng CSKA with just £10, since Sofia hit a  post, though this did not reflect their threat early on.  We later backed Fullan again after 1-0 with £130 when it looked like they would increase their lead,  but backed out later on by laying with £32 and at 1.08 and backing the draw with £8 at 12 to leave £13 profit and overll £17.



Profit made on this trade = £17


Date: 05/12/09
Time: 12.30hrs GMT
Teams: Falkirk V Rangers - Score: 1 - 3

My Recommendation:
It shouldn't be forgotten that Falkirk gave Celtic a scare recently in the exciting 3-3 draw. But nor should it be forgotten that Falkirk still sit bottom of the SPL with only 8 points and one solitary win at home to Hamilton. Its true that Rangers will have to improve on recent performances, but I expect them to come out at least with a draw if not a win here, so we will lay Falkirk, probably trading out after the first goal.

Our Trading Result:
We started cautiously but by the time of the goal had layed Falkirk with £19 at average odds 10; after the goal I felt Rangers' confidence would grow so I backed them with £120 at 1.17. I would probably have started a slow trade out but Boyd saved us the both by making it 2-0. Prior to the 2 nd Falkirk did look to come back into it so we backed draw with £5 at 9.0. On the downside I was about lay Rangers with £50 at 1.03 when Falkirk pulled a goal back. We took a further £2 on the draw in the second half and layed Rangers with £10 at 1.11 to still leave a total profit of £30.



Profit made on this trade = £30


Date: 05/12/09
Time: 17.30hrs GMT
Teams: Man City V Chelsea- Score: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
We will look to lay the draw at short odds inplay.

Our Trading Result:
Expected a Chelsea win here, so have to admit I got it wrong, but main thing we came out with a small profit. Probably should have layed the draw quicker but I decided the odds (3.7) were too high so we backed the draw with view to laying out quickly but caught with £17 which we covered by laying half-time market (City). This gave £19 profit. After the goal for City I decided it was an off day so layed Chelsea - its good if you are prepared to admit it wasn't going anticipated!. This still left -£11 and -£5 on 0-0, to give just a £3 profit. The key to successful trading: Making a profit even when you misjudge the match (a late goal for Chelsea would have left us with £60 profit but it would not be deserved.



Profit made on this trade = £3


Date: 09/12/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Juventus V Bayern Munich - Score: 1 - 4

My Recommendation:
Both of these matches present possibly good opportunities to lay the draw, but in both cases we will wait to try to match lower odds of around 3.1. If there is a goal in one of the games before we have had a chance to lay the draw, we will simply concentrate on the other. As with most such trades our main concern will be whether there is a goal or not. However, in both cases there is strong evidence to suggest at least one goal. In the case of the Bayern game it should be quite open as they know that nothing less than a win will ensure their progress to the knock put phase. Juventus only need a point but are unlikely to sit back and invite Bayern to attack them for 90 minutes. Its true that the reverse fixture finished 0-0, but Bayern were quite happy with a draw in that game. Similarly in the second game Atletico need a win just to make it to the Europa League and given their fire power I would not back against them getting at least one. . Although they had previously failed to score, they finally showed their attacking capabilities in the 2-2 home draw to Chelsea. Ideally we should be able to get involved in both with the usual trade out after a goal (as in both games an equaliser certainly cannot be ruled out. (NB: I am also considering Zurich v. Milan as possible trade if we cannot get on one of the above before a goal, I will decide this prior to kick off).


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with £48 at average odds less than 4.8 (We got involved in 2 stages, at 0-0 and 1-1, haivng traded out slightly after the first goal). After the 2-1 to Bayern, we traded out of the draw again but also layed Juventus with £12 as I was increasingly confident of the away win. This left profits on both the draw and most importantly £28 profit on Bayern. We also got involved in the under market, having traded out but not quick enough to prevent £13 loss on that and overall £15 profit. (We did not get on the Porto game as the goal came too quickly to lay the draw.




Profit made on this trade = £15


Date: 09/12/09
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Teams: Atletico V Porto - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
Both of these matches present possibly good opportunities to lay the draw, but in both cases we will wait to try to match lower odds of around 3.1. If there is a goal in one of the games before we have had a chance to lay the draw, we will simply concentrate on the other. As with most such trades our main concern will be whether there is a goal or not. However, in both cases there is strong evidence to suggest at least one goal. In the case of the Bayern game it should be quite open as they know that nothing less than a win will ensure their progress to the knock put phase. Juventus only need a point but are unlikely to sit back and invite Bayern to attack them for 90 minutes. Its true that the reverse fixture finished 0-0, but Bayern were quite happy with a draw in that game. Similarly in the second game Atletico need a win just to make it to the Europa League and given their fire power I would not back against them getting at least one. . Although they had previously failed to score, they finally showed their attacking capabilities in the 2-2 home draw to Chelsea. Ideally we should be able to get involved in both with the usual trade out after a goal (as in both games an equaliser certainly cannot be ruled out. (NB: I am also considering Zurich v. Milan as possible trade if we cannot get on one of the above before a goal, I will decide this prior to kick off).


Our Trading Result:
This was our back up trade if one of the above did not materialise. I intended to lay Zurich at the start, but observing how badly Milan were playing left alone. After it went 1-0 I glad of this decision! I did not feel confident enough until Zurich went down to 10 men, at which point we initially layed with £12 (and then a bit more towards the end before backing Zurich again to reduce the liability and an overall £10 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £10


Date: 12/12/09
Time: 17.30hrs GMT
Teams: Manchester Utd V Aston Villa - Score: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Villa have an awful record at Old Trafford. No wins in over 17 years in the league.
Much has been made in the media about the injury crisis at Old Trafford but I think if you you look at the players filling in it is certainly over hyped.  Having said that Villa are always a tough team so we will start with cautious lay and possibly lay the draw if it is still level later on, at less than 3.0 Cover on 0-0 will only be taken if there are few opportunities.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Villa with £16 at 8.9.Towards end we backed Villa with £100 at 1.9 and traded out again in late on in hope of a late goal.  Adjusted a little towards the end to reduce loss but still left with -£70.
I had some concenrs before the game but felt that United would squeeze a draw, unfortunately not and Villa's first win at Old trafford since 1982 (Could they not have waited one more match?) 



Profit made on this trade = -£70


Date: 12/12/09
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Teams: Barcelona V Espanyol - Score: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Espanyol's recent form suggests this will be an easy win for the home side.
They have lost 4 in a row in La Liga, conceding 13 goals and scoring none. Of course they may raise their game for this derby match, but even then a draw would be a bit of surprise - nevertheless we will lay Espanyol rather than back Barca just to cover that.


Our Trading Result:
At least no dramas here after the last one eneded our good run. We layed Espnayol with £9 and backed Barcelona with £30 for £14 profit overall.



Profit made on this trade = £14


Date: 12/12/09
Teams: Valencia V Real Madrid- Score: 2 - 3

My Recommendation:
Bonus trade for members to help recoup form the earlier loss.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with £20 at around 2.88 averages, as no goals in first half we were able to get on at good odds. After the goal we layed Valencia with £12 at 11, and backed draw with £4; we traded out little more on draw to leave an overall profit of £27. Fantastic game this.


Profit made on this trade = £27


Date: 12/12/09
Teams: Liverpool V Arsenal - Score: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Usually we get goals in this fixtur, so we will lay te draw and trade out fter a goal from either side.  As the odds are little high on the draw we may try to wait until it drops to arond 3.2.  This is because the oucome is farly unpredictable, but my only prediciton is that it will not finish 0-0.



Our Trading Result:
We made a rather cautious lay of the draw, both at 0-0 and 1-1 with £21 at 2.9 and backing with £13 at 3.92.   It was increasingy clear that Liverpool were struggling so we layed them with £27 at 12 and backed them again with £10 at 21.  Finally we layed Arsenal with £14 at 1.14 to cover the late equaliser for an overall profit of £22.



Profit made on this trade = £22


Date: 26/12/09
Teams: Liverpool V Arsenal - Score: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Birmingham have won their last 5 in the Premiership so will likely present a stern test for Chelsea. However, all these wins came against bottom half opposition and their record against Chelsea is not good with no wins at home in the last 5.

The best strategy will be to lay Birmingham, with a narrow win for Chelsea or a draw the most likely outcome here. If Birmingham score first we will consider laying them again then trading out.

Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 with £33 at 1.72, layed with £38 at 1.4 for £8 profit. We layed Birmingham with £28 at 7.94 and covered 1-0 Birmingham wih £4 at 24 after the sending off for a total profit of £30



Profit made on this trade = £30


Date: 02/01/10
Teams: Barcelona V Villareal - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
Barcelona will be keen to protect their 100 per cent home record in La Liga and I expect them to do so even though Villarreal are likely to provide decent opposition. Indeed the Yellow Submarines achieved an excellent 3-3 draw at the Nou Camp last season and won 2-1 the previous season. It should be remembered, however, that Barcelona were still re-building during the 2007-08 season were nothing like as strong as they are now - in my opinion, they are the stand out team in Europe. Out of respect for Villarreal's recent record we will lay them rather than back Barcelona, though this policy may be reconsidered if Barcelona look strong. If Villarreal score first we will consider laying them again.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Villarreal with £10. After the goal Barcelona were in total control for 10 minutes and should have added to their lead, so we backed Barcelona with £66. Credit to Villarreal who suddenly started to play well. Even at 1-1 I was confident Barcelona would not lose so we backed the draw with £20 at 3.0 and layed Villarreal with £16. I was hopeful that Barcelona would edge it but in the end Villarreal probably deserved the point as it was the least impressive performance from Barca for some while and they probably missed Messi.




Profit made on this trade = £2


Date: 03/01/10
Teams: Hibs V Hearts - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
This game has had an amazing sequence of 10 games in a row finishing under 2.5 with the last one 0-0. So backing under 2.5 if the opening is tight is well supported, though we will trade out as the sequence has to end some time and we will not want to hang around to find out. Hearts made a dismal start to the season and 3 weeks ago Hibs would have been the clear favourites to win this. But they have shown a clear improvement in this time, including a 2-1 win against Celtic. It is therefore hard to predict the outcome and so we will lay the draw, trading out after a goal for either team.

Our Trading Result:
We were in a strong position on the unders market, having backed it with £150 at 1.64 and layed with around £124 at around 1.47. However, the goal seconds before half-time made things a little trickier. We backed again with £36 and again manged to lay most but not all of this before the goal. After the 1-1 it presented an opportunity to increase our profit on under and cover this, in case we got caught by another quick goal, by laying the draw. This worked out quite well, though a late goal would have given us an even better profit. Our final figures were: backed under 2.5 with £205 at 1.75 and layed with £203 at 1.44 for £61 profit; layed draw with £42 at 1.95 for -£40 and overall profit of £21.




Profit made on this trade = £21


Date: 09/01/10
Teams: Birmingham V Manchester Utd - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
All the indications are that United will be in for a tough game here. Their last 2 performances have left Ferguson fuming, but never underestimate the power of the mighty one! Against that, Birmingham have been one of the surprise teams of the season and this is surely an indication of what good management can do for you. Yet I think United will rise to the challenge here, but if they perform anything like they did in the game against Leeds I can assure you that we will get out faster than Usain Bolt out of the blocks. And let's not forget that Birmingham are unbeaten in the last 6 home fixtures and the last time United came up against a similarly ranked team (Fulham, one place below Birmingham), they got thumped 3-0. So although we will lay Birmingham we will do so cautiously with plenty of cover plans at the ready, including a possible cover of backing Birmingham on the half-time market if things look tricky or a complete trade out. It should be an interesting game -given the recent weather, any game is an interesting one!

Our Trading Result:
Sure enough United did have a tough game but not for the first 40 minutes, so we layed United with £24 and were fairly confident that United would take the lead. Of course as happens from time to time in football the first time Birmingham had an attack they scored, having hardly crossed the half-way line to that point. The period when United started to look to be really struggling was when they equalised. It was lucky though as we were about to back Birmingham with a view to laying them late on.   Still we had a few unlucky ones so it probably balances out.  But  we were pleased in the end to get out of this with a profit.




Profit made on this trade = £23

Date: 09/01/10
Teams: Inter Milan V Siena - Score: 4 - 3

My Recommendation:
Inter sit top of Serie A with 42 points against Siena, bottom with 12, not the lowest points total of any top tier team in Europe, but not far off. So it does not take much working out to appreciate that Inter will be hot favorites here. The only danger is if Siena decides to park the bus and hold out for an unlikely point whilst trying to sneak one at the other end. And given Inter have only scored 3 at home in the last 3 (2 wins and a draw), while Siena have managed 4 away goals in the last 3 (all defeats), which for a bottom placed team is well above average, we cannot assume this is an impossible scenario. Nevertheless Siena's defensive record (33 conceded, the worst in Serie A) does not offer them much hope of succeeding with this tactic, so our best strategy will be to back Inter at higher odds along with a small lay of Siena (as the odds will not be favourable for a larger one).

Our Trading Result:
Not good for the nerves this one: Inter put in a very poor performance and only towards the end did they show so form. Having laid with £20, we decided to stick it out, though some of the inplayer decided to trade out and made a loss. Nevertheless I had seen Inter under Mourinho pull out many games so even at 2-3 with 7 minutes left felt they could get a goal. And then the last gasp goal helped them to the win. Quite a game.



Profit made on this trade = £19


Date: 15/01/10
Teams: Bayern Munich v. Hoffenheim - Score: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
The return of the Bundesliga following the winter break sees Bayern up against the surprise team from last season, Hoffenheim. At one stage Bayern looked to be really struggling, trailing in the Bundesliga and tipped for an early exit from the Champions league. But they have found form, finishing the pre-winter break with 4 wins on the trot and pulling off a great escape in the Champions League. The reason is partly explained by the return of Robben and (briefly) Ribery, both of whom really make Bayern tick. Although Hoffenheim is not an easy fixture, they have never really found the form of the first half of last season when, prior to his injury, Ibisevic was scoring with ease. Perhaps of most significance, they have failed to beat any of the 6 teams above them this season (4 defeats and 2 draws).

Unfortunately, Ribery has been ruled out so we will need to exercise some caution. But Hoffenhein are missing a few players to injury or the African Cup of Nations while van Gaal intends to name the same starting line-up that found form last year. Furthermore, with Robben fit I think a narrow win for Bayern is the most likely outcome, although a draw cannot be ruled out.

So we will lay Hoffenhiem and trade out after a goal. If Hoffenheim score first but Bayern are on top, we will lay Hoffenheim again.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Bayern with £20 at 9; Bayern dominated from almost start to finish and the only surprise was that it took them so long to make it 2-0.   After the first goal we backed Bayern with £60 at 1.19.  Having recently seen too many games with goals against the run of play we later decided to cover the draw by laying Bayern again with £28 at lower odds and backing the draw with £2 at 9.2 for an overall profit of £23.



Profit made on this trade = £23


Date: 16/01/10

Teams: Hamilton V Rangers - Score: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Hamilton gave 'Gers a real fright in the corresponding cup game last Sunday. You will not be surprised to learn that I watched this game and in all honesty Rangers were very poor in the first half, blowing a 2-0 lead to finish 3-2 down at half-time, though the first goal came through a rather questionable penalty decision (just to prove it, the ref balanced it by giving back a gift penalty to Gers in the second half). Normally I would expect a very easy win here, but with half the first team missing we will go for a very small lay of Hamilton or not get involved if they are playing poorly.

Our Trading Result:
Although there were 5 goals in the first half of Sunday's game, this never looked likely here, particularly with Rangers missing Boyd and Miller, so we backed under 2.5 with £100 at 2.18 and were able to trade out gradually with £139 at 1.6 for a total profit of £33.


Profit made on this trade = £33

Date: 27/01/10

Teams: St Mirren V Rangers - Score: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
Rangers' form recently has been less than impressive, but when you consider their recent injury list: Boyd, Miller, Thompson, De Beasley, Mendes, Bougherra (African Cup Duty) abd Edu (to name but a few), then it's hardly surprising. However a good proportion of these are now returning for duty against Saints, notably long-term absentee Mendes. This, plus Saints poor record against Rangers makes me more confident of the outcome than I was prior to our last Rangers trade, the narrow 1-0 win against Hamilton. This year, it pays sometimes to be cautious about backing the Old Firm, which is why I omitted St Johnstone v. Celtic last weekend from the line-up - which looked fully justified as Saints were 1-0 up for the most part until they went to 10 men- but here I am sure that Rangers will get at least one point and more likely 3, so we will lay Saints, possibly trading out after a goal to Rangers.

Our Trading Result:
Excellent result for our trading -in the end- though things got off to a difficult start - not because of the early goal for Gers, but because my PC decided to play AWOL and I could not log on until one minute after the goal (which came after only 2 minutes!). Slight shame as I remember giving instructions to Walter Smith for them not to score until I had logged on, So we could not put plan A into operation, which was to lay St Mirren with £24.  But I felt Gers were still comfortable enough to get the win, and though it wasn't an entirely convincing performance overall, St Mirren never really had the fire power to cause serious problems.  So we backed Gers with £80 at around 1.19, trading out partially later on (to cover the draw with £2), to leave £13 profit.  Not as much as it might have been, but the important thin. as always, is the profit!



Profit made on this trade = £13

Date: 30/01/10

Teams: Hamilton V Celtic - Score: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Celtic certainly did not have any luck against Hibs, but their inability to find the net must be concerning Mowbray. This could be a tricky game for Celtic on current form, though in the end they should come out on top. Hamilton have pulled out some decent displays against Rangers recently, but that was built on a strong rear guard action as well as difficult playing conditions rather than any real threat up front. Nevertheless, this is giving me slight concern so I feel only a small lay of Hamilton is justified initially to see how they perform. The rest will be judged in play

Our Trading Result:
As expected, Celtic struggled up front again, so we backed under 2.5 with £99 at 2.06, trading out gradually with £127 at 1.47 (some of which after the 1-0) for £42 profit. We also layed Hamilton with £15 at average odds 11.4 for an overall profit of £56.


Profit made on this trade = £56

Date: 30/01/10

Teams: Bayern Munich V Mainz - Score: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
Bayern Munich have well and truly put their early season problems behind them, and have now won their last 6 in a row. Mainz have probably performed above expectations, since they now sit in a lofty 12 th place in the Bundesliga. But most of this is built on an excellent home record, including a 2-1 win against Bayern at the start of the season. It's a different Bayern now, and Mainz have only managed one away win all season, against Bochum. The Mainz coach has joked that he needs a 5-5-2 formation to quell Bayern, but there is the possibility that they wil be able to keep it tight for some time, so for this reason we will lay Mainz.

Our Trading Result:
As under 2.5 was available at 2.96, which was superb value given the intention of the Mainz coach to 'park the bus', we backed this with £55, trading out rather faster than in the last game with £64 at 2.37 for £9 profit. We also layed Mainz with £21 for an overall profit of £29.



Profit made on this trade = £29


Date: 30/01/10

Teams: Burnley V Chelsea - Score: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
Chelsea are really beginning to turn the heat on their main title rivals with three wins in a row, the last 2 of which saw them score 10 times (7-2 v. Sunderland and 3-0 v. Birmingham, Their away form is also extremely solid and they have not lost since the 2-1 reverse to Villa last October. Burnley sit in the relegation places and though it is very tight at the foot of the table, their current form does not give much hope, losing the last 4 in a row without scoring a goal. It should not be forgotten that Burnley pulled off a magnificent home victory against Manchester United near the start of the season, but I think Chelsea will be a different prospect, so we will lay Burnley and trade out after a goal if Chelsea take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
Chelsea made this harder for themselves than it should have been, conceding a sloppy goal when Burnley had hardly threatened. We layed Burnley with £18, later backing Chelsea with £77 after the opening goal. There did not seem to be a way back for Burnley, but goals against run of play can happen. Afther that we layed Burnley for another £12 and covered the draw: We had a somewhat higher liability on Burnley than I would have preferred, but I still felt it more likely that Chelsea would win. This left us £20 profit on Chelsea.



Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 31/01/10

Teams: Arsenal V Manchester Utd - Score: 3 - 1

My Recommendation:
Neither team can afford a draw here so, at some point at least, we should get an open attacking game, with hopefully at least 1 or 2 goals.  The record between them shows 3 goalless draws in the last 20, but I do not think this is to significant, as the circumstances of this game are rather different. For games like this, it is too tough to pick a winner, so we will lay the draw starting at 3.2 or better, staggering our stake to get a better return. A small side trade on unders will only be considered if it looks tight at the beginning, though the recent record does not support unders, with 3 of the last 4 finishing 2-1


Our Trading Result:
Another successful trade, but only just as we got caught out on the unders market. Fortunately we backed Manchester United having already layed the draw for £52 profit, which made our £47 loss on the unders easier to take.  We were in the process of increasing our trading odds in order to trade out completely - we only needed 5 minutes to do it, but alas the second goal came right after. But its been an excellent month with 100 per cent success rate and now we will try to get the record of most consecutive wins (we stand at 15 in a row).  It has to come to an end sometime, but it would be good to get through February unbeaten!



Profit made on this trade = £5


Date: 03/02/10

Teams: St Johnstone V Rangers - Score: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
When I first listed this selection, I was fairly confident that Rangers' selection problems were clearing. But the latest is that Edu, Bougherra (we knew about him) de Beasley, Boyd and Miller   -to name a few - are all out.  This will undoubtedly make it tougher, and St Johnstone may well put up a stern resistance. So we will adopt a cautious wait and see policy similar to the recent Hamilton-Rangers game.  If Gers are struggling up front we will back under's up to about 15 minutes (or later if the play suggests it) and then trade out. We do not want to get caught again on this market, however, so if the worst happens (a goal before trade out) we will trade out with same stake laying under's and take the loss on under 2.5. A small lay of St Johnstone will also be made if Gers look in control, increasing our stake if we get more confident.  If its still 0-0 towards the end we may reduce any potential loss by covering 1-0 to the Super Jays.  Having said all of the above, I cannot see any other result than a win for Gers or maybe a draw, but it is the cup and stranger things have happened.



Our Trading Result:
I decided to play this one cautiously due to the injuries, but probably it turned out not to be necessary as the "Super Jays" never really posed a threat the entire match. (Perhaps I had too many memories of the close run thing and win on penalties in the cip last season).  We backed under 2.5 with £150, trading out execpt for £20 by the time of the first goal and £10 by the time of the second. We ledft some profit on under (even though we expected a   thrid goal with did not come, for £10 profit in this market.  We laso layed St Johnstone with £6 and backed Gers later on (at 2-0) to increase profit to just £11, laying off slightyl at the end for £10 profit and £20 overall.



Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 10/02/10

Teams: Motherwell V Rangers - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
The last 4 corresponding fixtures at Fir Park have all ended up draws and another tight affair can be excepted here.  All of these were either 0-0 or 1-1, so backing under's will be tempting, though again we need to be careful not get caught on it before a goal.  Under new manager and former Scotland boss Craig Bwon, Motherwell have accumulated a very impressive 13 points out of 15 - so it certainly will not be easy for the 'Gers.  Yet with key men coming back from injury, I think they might just sneak all 3 points.
We will also consider laying Motherwell if Gers look on top and trading out if Rangers take the lead.

Our Trading Result:
I decided that the pitch made it too risky too lay Motherwell at the start, which proved correct when they took the lead; instead we backed under with £170 at average 2.09, trading out with £184 at 1.89  (mainly but not all before the first goal), for £22 profit.   We then layed Motherwell with £8 late on for total profit £30.



Profit made on this trade = £30


Date: 13/02/10

Teams: Bayern V Dortmund - Score: 3 - 1

My Recommendation:
Dortmund come into this on the back of 2 defeats, the last being a 3-2 reverse at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.  By contrast, Bayern have been in hot form, with 8 wins in row and 11 in all competitions.  But Borussia will still not be an easy game, as they still sit 5th and before their last 2 they were on a running win of 5. But with a strong incentive of putting further pressure on leaders Leverkusen, currently ahead of Bayern only on goal difference, I think Bayern could get a win here. We will lay Borussia, if Bayern look in control, trading out after a goal.  If Borussia score first we will consider laying them again.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Borussia with £12 but Bayern looked to be struggling and we layed them on the half-time market - but things got complicated at 1-1 as it looked like Bayern might take the lead, so we also covered that market for £16 profit - (We backed and layed the draw on this market.  In second half Bayern were in total control so we layed Borusia again with £16 (backing out with £2 after 2-1) for total profit of £24 on this market and £40 overall.


Profit made on this trade = £40


Date: 13/02/10

Teams: Xerez V  Real Madrid - Score: 0 - 3

My Recommendation:

No Preview Bonus Trade to replace the removed Lyon Match.

Our Trading Result:
We did this as bonus trade in place of the cancelled Lyon game.  We layed Xerez with just £12 to begin with, but gradually increased this to £24 as the first Real goal began to look just a matter of time, laying off with £2 for £21 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £21



Date: 15/02/10

Teams: Bayern V Fiorentina - Score: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
Bayern are on an incredible winning run and it seems that they are set to continue this.
By contrast Fiorentina have not been able to emulate the form that won them a Champions League spot last season and in fact have lost 4 out of their last 5 Derie A games. But this is the Champions League and teams sometimes over perform, so it would be more sensible to lay Fiorentina than to back Bayern, even though I feel a home win is the most likely scenario here. If there are any surprises to the team line up we may go for a cautious lay, but if Riberry and Robbin are playing Bayern will be hard to stop.

Our Trading Result:
Not the best performance from Bayern by a long way, in fact it had more similarities to their early season form.  It was a narrow win in the end, but our £28 lay of Fiorentina always looked fairly secure.


Profit made on this trade = £27

Date: 20/02/10

Teams: Inter Milan V Sampdoria - Score: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
Sampdoria sit at a highly respectable 5 th position in Serie A, but this has mainly been built on excellent home form, where they are currently undefeated. Their away home is not quite as impressive, particularly against the top teams. The head-to-head also highly favours Inter, with 5 win and 2 draws in the last 7. Inter also have a highly impressive record at the San Siro, having not lost all season. We will therefore go for a cautious lay of Sampdoria.

NOTE: We will cover the postponed St Johnstone v. Rangers fixture in addition to the normal fixtures next month (or whenever it is re-scheduled)

Our Trading Result:
If in-play traders were allowed to set the football rules, they would ensure that it was impossible to send off players. It makes things very tricky indeed. We had layed Sampdoria with £14, but not more as Inter did not look that much on top. When Inter went to 10 men I was not too concerned, but when they went to 9 that was another matter! So we layed Inter, and backed Sampdoria in order to reduce liability on Sampdoria. I was not concerned about Inter winning and my only concern would have been, as I said at half-time, if Sampdoria went to 10- which of course they did. So we then had to reduce liability on Inter (we layed the draw at low odds). In the end we got ourselves a hard fought £13 profit on the main market. We also backed under 2.5 with £100 at 1.88 trading out with £100 at average odds of 1.53 for a profit of £34 and overall £47.



Profit made on this trade = £47


Date: 23/02/10

Teams: Stuttgart V Barcelona - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
If this fixture had taken place a few weeks back I would have confidently told you that Barcelona were going to walk away with a win, but Stuttgart have improved on their early season form.  So we we will need to make sure they do not decide to play the game of the season here. I think in some ways this tie should suit Barcelona, as sometimes they are not at their best when they are forced to break down the opposition.   So I am cautiously optimistic that Barca will come away with at least a draw.
If Barcelona play like they can do, with Messi on top form, a win is still not out of the question. Our strategy for this one will be to start with a cautious lay of Stuttgart, perhaps with just £6, enough to deal with any surprise early goal for Stuttgart. If Barcelona look in charge, we will increase this amount. 

Our Trading Result:
This was the proverbial game of 2 halves.  We layed Stuttgart with just £6 and decided to keep it at that as Stuttgart seemed to get better and better as the first half dragged on, indeed when they went 1-0 I was concerned they would increase their lead, so we backed them with £44 at 2.16.  We also backed under 2.5 with £100 at 2.1. We finished with final figures of backed with £137 at 2.2 layed with £150 at 2.02 for £14 profit. In the second half Barcelona were more like the Barca we know, so we layed Stuttgart again with £70, (before and after the goal) eventually finishing with £20 profit and £34 overall.



Profit made on this trade = £34


Date: 27/02/10

Teams: Chelsea V Man City - Score: 2 - 4

My Recommendation:
City have struggled without Tevez, but things could be less clear cut now that he is back.  Otherwise I think Chelsea would have won easily, but with Tevez on the pitch you can never quite rule them out, so we will do a very cautious lay of City at the start and then see how play develops.

Our Trading Result:
This was bad match to trade and as you saw in the preveiw I had my misginvings about Tevez, who can turn a game on his own. I traded it quite well, just it was good trading on the wrong match. We layed City with £20 and things went well until the Tevez goal. We backed out when things were hopeless in order to reduce our loss, but still a nast £120 loss unfortunately and the end of our 100 per cent  record for the year.  Not good!



Profit made on this trade = -£120


Date: 28/02/10

Teams: Rangers V Celtic - Score: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
This should be a fairly open game, as Celtic desparately need the 3 points. Its unliekely, with his experience of these games, that Walter Smith will play for a draw.  Our only issue therefore is at what point to lay the draw.  If it is a tight open we may have  small side trade on unders but woud trade out to leave a profit on over as I expect there will be more than 2 goals in this. 

Our Trading Result:
Last time I predicted a title for Gers was the season Celtic clawed back a substantial lead largely due to the heavy fixture list Rangers had (550 games in 5 days or something like that). So I am not going to do it again, but it certainly looks good. Slightly akward trade for us however. We layed the draw with £50 at average odds 3.0, but with the sending off I felt that a draw could not be ruled out, though Celtic's chance had become slim so we layed them with £20 and backed the draw with £60, leaving £10 profit on Rangers and only a small loss on the draw.  Rangers delivered just in time for £10 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £10


Date: 06/03/10

Teams: Wolves V Manchester Utd - Score: 0 - 1

My Recommendation:
Manchester United are without Rooney, which will obviously make things a little harder here. But Wolves record is woeful, only having one at home and 1 out of 9 in the last 9 in all competitions. They also tend to leak goals, so I expect this will finish as a win for United, though a draw cannot be ruled out either, so we will lay Wolves and trade out after a goal for United. If Wolves score early we will lay them again if United are on top.

Our Trading Result:
Wolves put up a good fight, but that was to be expected and they lacked fire power to take advantage of their chances. We layed them for £24, trading out with £2 for a total profit of £20.



Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 07/03/10

Teams: Inter V Genoa - Score: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
Genoa's ninth place in Serie A is largely built on a solid record at home. Away from home it is a different story and they haven't registered a win since a 3-1 victory against Bologna at the beginning of the season. By contrast, Inter have one of the best home records in Europe and it would be major shock if they gave this up against Genoa, even if they may give them a stern test. We will lay Genoa, trading out after a goal for Inter.

Our Trading Result:
Another uninspiring performance from Inter but enough for us to profit, as they never eally looked in danger of losing, though we did trade out towards the end with £3 at odds over 50, having layed Genoa with £26 for an overall profit of £21



Profit made on this trade = £21


Date: 10/03/10

Teams: Real Madrid V Lyon - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
I was extremely impressed at Real's second half performance last Saturday, coming back from 0-2 for a 3-2 win against Sevilla.  They would have been too hot for almost any team in Europe in that second half, and if they reproduce any of this against Lyon they will be struggling. Having said that, Real are still prone to defensive lapses so you cannot rule out Lyon getting one away goal, though I am even more convinced that Real will not lose, so we will lay Lyon trading out after a goal if its for Real.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Lyon with £12 and were a little sorry that we did not get a chance to lay more as Real looked like steamrolling Lyon into the ground. We backed Real with £120, but as Real missed chance after chance it seemed likely that they might regret this. As Lyon came back into the game we backed the draw with £4 at 9.5 average odds then with £90 at 2.0 after the equaliser. We layed off the draw towards the end and unfortunately ended up with a loss of £20.  The poor level of Real's play was the problem here, a really rather dismal 2nd half performance made for a rather tricky trade!



Profit made on this trade = -£20


Date: 14/03/10

Teams: Man Utd V Fulham - Score: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
Fulham beat United 3-0 earlier in the season, one of United's worse ever defeats. But United come into this game full of confidence having got into the winning habit in the Premiership with 3 good wins in a row and also following the excellent win against AC Milan in the Champions League. Meanwhile Fulham had a tough time of it away to Juventus in the Europa League and this may also count against them. Though they are never easy to beat, I expect United to edge this one. We will lay Fulham, trading out after a goal.

Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 due to a quiet opening with £110 at 2.24 (average odds) and layed with £134 at 1.83 for £23 profit.  We also layed Fulham with just £14 (due to high odds) and layed off with £2 at 150 for a profit of £12 in this market and overall £35 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £35


Date: 20/03/10

Teams: Hibs V Hearts - Score: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:
This has been a very low scoring game of late, and we have profited more than once by backing unders. Given that Hibs have scored just 3 goals in the last 5 and Hearts are going throug ha rough patch, I see no reason to cange this strategy, so we will back unders and trade out after  about 10 minutes - simply because we cannot guarantee it will stay low scroing, but i expect a rather cautious opening. If this fails to materiliase we will get out somewhat faster.

Our Trading Result:
As expected it was a tight opening and so we backed under 2.5 at a rather low 1.56, but traded out manly before the goal and then again in the short interval between the first and second goals, for just £4 profit (altogether we traded out with £124 at 1.51) 



Profit made on this trade = £4


Date: 20/03/10

Teams: Aston Villa V Wolves - Score: 2 - 2

My Recommendation:
If we have traded out of the above game we will also trade on this, which kicks off 30 minutes later.

Our Trading Result:
The Villa supporters here will not have been pleased with their performance and nor were we as we layed them with £23, however fortunately they did get the goal they probably just about deserved on the balance of play before then end after which we backed Wolves for £17 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £17


Date: 21/03/10

Teams: Arsenal V West Ham - Score: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
The return of Fabregas plus incentive to top, temporarily at least, should mean that we get a good performance from the Gunners.  However West Ham are know for their resilience, so for this reason we will lay West Ham rather than back Arsenal, trading out after a goal for the home team.  

Our Trading Result:
I was fairly confident that Arsenal would win before the start, but after a rather narrow escape in the Villa game and given the high odds I decided to play this cautiously. So we layed Hammers for £14 trading out later (when Arsenal went to 10 men) with £2 for £11 profit overall.



Profit made on this trade = £11


Date: 27/03/10

Teams: Bolton V Man Utd - Score: 0 - 4

My Recommendation:
United will not want to drop points now that the heat is on, and I expect them to continue their winning form or at worst to get a draw, though Bolton is not going to present an easy opportunity. So we will lay Bolton, trading out after a goal to United or laying Bolton further if they score an early goal and United are in charge.   

Our Trading Result:
I expected Bolton to pose more of a problem for United when I learned shortly before kick off that Rooney and Ferdinand were missing; but with the 'nicely taken' own goal the game really swung away from Bolton.  We layed them for £6 and backed under with initially £55 but traded out well before the goals for £2 profit and a total of £8.



Profit made on this trade = £8


Date: 28/03/10

Teams: Real V Atletico Madrid - Score: 3 - 2

My Recommendation:
Real Madrid are one of the few top teams with no worries about the Champions League so I expect a full strength team for this game, and for this reason I really see no reason why Real will not win, particularly given their recent form in La Liga. But with Forlan and Aguero on the other side it will be safer not to rely on an easy win, and instead for a lay of Atletico.  

Our Trading Result:
We layed Atletico with £33. Despite going 0-1 I felt that Real's pressure would pay off so we sat on it and when they equalised early in the second half our trade never really looked under threat. An excellent second half display from Real despite conceding a silly penalty, and a total profit of £32.


Profit made on this trade = £32


Date: 03/04/10

Teams: Barcelona V Ath Bilbao - Score: 4 - 1

My Recommendation:
The La Liga title looks like going down to the wire, and Barcelona will not want to drop any points here. Their form continues to impress and it was one of the oddest results of the year when they were held to a draw after pummeling the Gunners for over an hour. We do not want to underestimate Athletico as they have had a good season, sitting in 6 th place in La Liga, but their recent form away is not so inspiring with 5 defeats and 3 draws. Athletico's away wins tend to come against bottom half teams. We will lay Athletico, trading out after a goal for Barca, or holding on for a while if Athletico take an early lead, possibly laying them again if Bara are in control.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Bilbao for £20, playing it safe by trading out with £2 on Bilbao after the 1-0, though we need not have as Barca ran out easy winners for our £17 profit and an untroubled start to our month's traiding.



Profit made on this trade = £17


Date: 06/04/10

Teams: Barcelona V Arsenal - Score: 4 - 1

My Recommendation:
After the superb action at the Emirates we are expecting another open game at the Nou Camp.  Its probably true that we cannot expect another performance like the first half an hour then, but I still expect Barcelona to have too much for Arsenal. The loss of Puyol is undoubtedly a blow, but this more than compensated by Arsenal's loss of Fabregas.  Arsenal still offer some threat with the pace of Walcott, but Barcelona will have Abidal back and he should cope better than Maxwell did against the England starlett.  And of course, Barcelona have Messi!  As I often do, I will cover the draw (which is not out of the question) by laying Arsenal.  If Arsenal look threatening we may change strategy, but I consider this unlikely.


Our Trading Result:
Another superb Barca performance, another profitable Barca trade and the same scoreline but to be honest we were quite unlucky not to have a larger profit. We layed Arsenal with £40 (mostly at 0-0) and backed them with £120 when it was 2-1. This gave £54 profit (since we traded out a little in the 2 nd half). But we were tempted by the unders at 2.8 and were just about to finish trading out when we were caught by the 2 quick goals without warning. leaving us with £34 left on this market, so overall a £20 profit. On to El Classico. Surely Barca cannot make it a hat=trick of 4-1 in that one, can they?



Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 10/04/10

Teams: Aston Villa V Chelsea - Score: 0 - 3

My Recommendation:
Yes, it is a cup tie and the cliche has it that such games are unpredcitable. I am not expecting Chelsea to have it all their own way in the game as in the recent Premiership fixture, but they should still be too strong for a Villa team that have been struggling of late.  Villa might be able to keep it tight for a while however, so we will lay Villa rather than backing Chelsea, trading out after goal.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Villa with £23, and after the 1-0 we reduced our liability by backing Villa with £2 at 65 for an overall profit of £20.



Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 10/04/10

Teams: Real Madrid V Barcelona - Score: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
What a game we have in prospect here, and it may go a long way to deciding the La Liga title.  I really think Barcelona can come out on top here, but on the other hand I would never recommend actually trading against a Madrid team that is also in excellent form. So the obvious trade will be to lay the draw, trading out after a goal for either team and chasing value. Of course we need at least a goal for this to work, but I do not think there is any danger of 0-0.  If this finishes goalless I am going to immediately back New Zealand to win the World Cup.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with just £8 hoping to get slightly lower odds, but after Barcelona took the lead I felt that Real were rather shocked and so as well as backing the draw we layed Real, with a total of £20 (and in fact I had recommended a further £12 but it came just before  Barca went 2-0 up so I will not ocunt that).  But overall we still had £17 profit on Barca.



Profit made on this trade = £17


Date: 10/04/10

Teams: Blackburn V Manchester United - Score: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
United have not had an easy ride and the way they blew a winning lead against Bayern might have knocked their confidence.  Added to this, Rooney will be missing, all of which encourages a cautious approach to this game. We will only get involved (by laying Blackburn) if I think they have put the mid week disaster behind them.  Against this, Blackburn are mid-table and so have a lot less to play for, and I laways consider motivation to be a strong plus factor.   If we get involved and United take the lead we will most likely trade out, as after mid-week I do not think United can be trusted as much as before to hold on.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Blackburn for £25 at average odds of 7.5, but traded out towards the end with £8 at average odds of 18 but still leaving a profit of £17.



Profit made on this trade = £17


Date: 13/04/10

Teams: Chelsea V Bolton - Score: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Its highly unlikely that Chelsea will not take full advantage of United's recent lapse in form.  Our only problem here is going to be the odds on Bolton, which might make a lay of the draw less attractive, so we may consider a combination of laying Bolton with a smaller amount and backing Chelsea.  However, as usual, much of this will be judged in play depending on particular on how big the Bolton bus is and whether Chelsea dominate as I expect. 


Our Trading Result:
We layed Bolton with £12 and also £11 on the half-time market.   Not a brilliant performance from the Blues but enough for us to profit with £20.


Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 14/04/10

Teams: Barcelona V Deportivo - Score: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
As Barca continue in superb form its only sensible that we take advantage.  As with yesterday's game, the odds might make it harder and necessitate smaller initial stake.  As mentioned, we will not get involved if for any reason Messi does not play (do you notice a theme here?). We will trade out if Barca take the lead and Deportivo look threatening.  


Our Trading Result:
The odds on the main market remained around 34 on Deportiva, too high to lay them; fortunately we managed to get less than half those odds on the half-time market - a market i only use when I have 100 per cent confidence in my selection - so we layed Deportiva with £21 and Barca did the rest, leading 1-0 at half-time for £20 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £20


Date: 24/04/10

Teams: Real Zaragoza V Real Madrid - Score: 1 - 2

My Recommendation:
This was originally a trade on the Barcelona game but we swapped to the Real Madrid game as Sky decided to start their coverage 15 minutes after kick-off by which time Barca had already taken the lead, so we traded the Real game instead.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Zaragoza with £24 and though it was not what you would call an easy game we were never in any danger.


Profit made on this trade = £23


Date: 25/04/10

Teams: Chelsea V Stoke - Score: 7 - 0

My Recommendation:
Chelsea cannot afford to slip up here and with a massive incentive to win I think they will. Stoke have done well, contradicting many people's prediction of relegation, but their away record of just 2 wins, one against lowly West Ham, hardly inspires confidence. It is unfortunate that Terry is missing but they have the resources to overcome this.  We will lay Stoke, again with a small amount if the odds are against us, and back Chelsea later on if available at better odds.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Stoke with £24 on the half-time market (as better odds were available and £12 on main market, for total profit of £34.




Profit made on this trade = £34


Date: 01/05/10

Teams: Bayern Munich V Bochum - Score: 3 - 1

My Recommendation:
Bochum have just sacked their manager having failed to win in the last 10.  The contrast of their fortunes with Bayern could not be greater.  They have a chance of an unprecedented treble but they cannot afford to drop points here as they are level on points with Schalke.  I think they will get the win here but as the odds may reflect this, we will most likely adopt a similar strategy to other recent matches of this sort, perhaps using the half-time market to lay Bochum if the odds are favourable, and backing Bayern only later on if still level and the odds are more favourable.


Our Trading Result:
We layed Bochum as planned on the half-time market for £26.  During the opening period it was so one sided that Bochum hardly crossed the half-way line and Bayern duly took a 2-0 lead into half-time for £25 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £25


Date: 01/05/10

Teams: Villareal V Barcelona - Score: 1 - 3

My Recommendation:
This will not be an easy game for Barcelona as Villareal are on a decent run, but Barca's form this season speaks for itself and I think they will be able to lift themselves from the disappointment of exiting the Champions League.  Certainly they cannot afford any slip ups.  In conclusion, we will make a cautious lay of Villareal, reducing our original amount inplay according to how the action unfolds.


Our Trading Result:
An absolutely superb first half display from Barca with the little man getting things going again. We layed Villareal for £20 for overall £19 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £19


Date: 02/05/10

Teams: Real Madrid V Osasuna - Score: 3 - 2

My Recommendation:
Another must win game and so far Real have done very well at keeping in touch with Barca, and I expect them to do so again here. As the odds are not very tempting we might need to wait and see how play develops before wither backing Madrid or laying Osasuna.


Our Trading Result:
Never in doubt? Not exactly,  We layed Osausan with £12 half-time as odds on main were far too high (around 40).  It was a bit of a roller coaster but we got there in the end for a £11 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £11


Date: 02/05/10

Teams: Lazio V Inter Milan - Score: 0 - 2

My Recommendation:
No Preview - Bonus Trade!


Our Trading Result:
We did this as a bonus trade, laying Lazio with £24, and backing Lazio with £2 at 100 after the goal,(though we probably need not have worried as in the 2nd half Lazio looked like they were happy to lose and possibly take the scudetto away from their city rivals. 


Profit made on this trade = £21

 

Date: 08/05/10

Teams: Real Madrid V Athletic Bilbao - Score: 5 - 1

My Recommendation:
Real probably realise this is their last realistic chance to overtake Barcelona.  Despite some stutters, they have a superb recrod and if they do not win La Liga they will have accumulated a record points total for a seconf place team.  I would expect Real to come out on top, though once more it will not be easy and as the odds will not be very favourable may have to combine a small lay of Bilbao with backing Real as the odds drift upwards.


Our Trading Result:
I decided against the half time market here following their perfomrance last time, but we need not have worried as Real run out easy winners in the end. Due to the odds we layed Athletic for just £8 for another easy profit.


Profit made on this trade = £8


Date: 08/05/10

Teams: Sevilla V Barcelona - Score: 2 - 3

My Recommendation:
Though Barcelona have an excellent recent recrod against Sevilla, 3 wins and a draw, including away, it is clear that this is their toughest game next to their win at the Bernebau.  We will use this as a side trade, and may not get involved unless Barcelona look in control, and will concentrate on the Real Madrid game


Our Trading Result:
The odds allowed us to be a bit bolder here, laying Sevilla for £12 and backing Barca with £33 after they went ahead, for overall £14 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £14


Date: 08/05/10

Teams: Manchester Utd V Stoke - Score: 4 - 0

My Recommendation:
We will apply the same strategy.  Like the Chelsea game a home win is most likely though a draw cannot be rules out which is why we will lay Stoke.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Stoke with £12 for an easy profit.



Profit made on this trade = £12


Date: 15/05/10

Teams: Chelsea V Portsmouth - Score: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
We will lay Portsmouth here, though I think Chelsea will win, it is not out of the question that it could be tight.

Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.46 with £55 and traded out with £55 at 2.25 (average) for £11. We also layed Portsmouth with £16 for an overall profit of £26



Profit made on this trade = £26


Date: 16/05/10

Teams: Malaga V Real Madrid - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
We will lay Malaga if Real are on top.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Malaga for £24 at 7.43 trading out partily with £12 at 7.57 for overall profit £12



Profit made on this trade = £12


Date: 13/06/10

Teams: England V USA - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
So after months of waiting we are finally up and running. Its not going to be an easy win for England but I expect them to at least avoid the defeat so we will lay USA here.

Our Trading Result:

Was it the fact that I was watching a Hyundai advert while England scored the first goal. Thanks ITV HD!

No I will not use this as an excuse- but I thought England would go on to win this easily - it looked like it in the first 10 minutes. We already layed USA with £20, then backed Engalnd with £99. But then came that goalkeeping classic moment - it happens. We managed to reduce the liability to £18 by the end, but the first loss in a little while. On second thoughts, I will blame the advert!


Profit made on this trade = -£18


Date: 14/06/10

Teams: Italy V Paraguay - Score: 1 - 1

My Recommendation:
This, on face value, should be a tough one for Italy.  Paraguay finished joint second in qualifying, but this is a poor indicator for performance in the tournament. Evidence for that can be found with Serbia, Denmark and,em, England.  Originally I had this down for a lay draw, but the more I consider this the more I think Italy's World Cup pedigree will ensure that they at least avoid defeat, so laying Paraguay is also under consideration. It will depend upon how the action unfolds as to which strategy I follow.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Paraguay with £30 and backed under with £99.  We traded out of that for £10 profit. Have to admit I was concerned about Italy so we traded out by backing the draw and laying Italy some after 1-0 leaving a potential liability on Italy, reducing the potential loss gradually as the game progressed. Things got a bit difficult, but we held out for a £30 profit on the draw and overall £40 profit.


Profit made on this trade = £40


Date: 15/06/10

Teams: Brazil V N.Korea - Score: 2 - 1

My Recommendation:

On the face of it and easy game for Brazil, but its likely that North Korea will park the bus, so we will start with a small lay on North Korea and then back Brazil at higher odds

Our Trading Result:
The odds were not suitable on main, so we layed North Korea with £18 at 27 and backed them with £5 at 42.  We also backed the draw (Half time) with £5 at 3.25 and layed with £8 at 1.41 for a £20 profit on this market. On the main we backed Brazil early on with just £33 for £4 profit and £24 overall.



Profit made on this trade = £24


Date: 16/06/10

Teams: South Africa V Uraguay - Score: 0 - 3

My Recommendation:

We will finalise strategy in play but most likely we will lay the draw here, covering the 0-0 with £5.  If there's any change I will report this here.  

Our Trading Result:
It looked to me like this was heading for another drab goalless draw, though I did say if there was to be a goal it would most likely be Forlan, even if he had hardly touched the ball.  True to form he fired in shortly after this, as we were trading out of £99 back of unders, which we eventually traded out completely for no loss. Other trades were £5 back on 0-0 and £4 lay of draw for an overall loss of just £2.



Profit made on this trade = -£2

 

Date: 17/06/10

Teams: Mexico V France - Score: 2 - 0

My Recommendation:
Shame we could not cover Argentina game, but alas the evening fixture is France v Mexico. Having said that, there are signs that some of the players have finally remembered how to score goals, and we should surely get more than 1 here.  We will therefore lay the draw as I think there is only marginal favour of one of the other taking the lead (France must surely improve - but we will not rely on it, I do not have a lot of confidence in their manager!)

We may cover 0-0 with a little if it looks like being like the first round matches.  If it is still 0-0 after 75 minutes we will back the draw and 0-0 to reduce potential loss, trading out again of 0-0, and leaving a little profit on - under 2.5 will be considered if its tight, but only if we have to as the odds have been quite poor and have been slow to drift down, probably a result of the record low scoring start to the competition.  

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw with £42 at average odds 2.82. After the goal I was fairly confident that France were heading for defeat and so backed the draw with just £20 and also layed France for £12, trading out partially with £4 at higher odds to reduce the  liability, for an overall profit of £30.



Profit made on this trade = £30


Date: 18/06/10

Teams: England V Algeria - Score: 0 - 0

My Recommendation:
I would not expect England to be as poor as they were in the first matches. Despite the excuses (USA tough to beat, goal keeping freak error) they were really poor especially in front of goal.  Nevertheless I will prefer to play a waiting game to see if England look to be playing better and if so will lay Algeria, for a small amount, increasing this to £24 if confident. If Algeria score first early on we will lay them again,  A late goal for Algeria (hopefully the least likely scenario) and we will reduce loss by backing Algeria.  

Our Trading Result:
We layed Algeria for £21 later backed Algerai for £6 at higher odds for an overall profit of £14



Profit made on this trade = £14


Date: 27/06/10

Teams: Argentina V Mexico - Score: 3 - 1

My Recommendation:
Argentina have been the stand out performers so far. Will this to be decide who plays England. Well, I do not know but you may by the time you read this. We will lay Mexico with a small amount, increasing stakes if Argentina perform as expected. Trade out aftyer a goal for Argentina, maybe lay again after an early goal for Mexico.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Mexico as planned with £26 for £25 overall.



Profit made on this trade = £25


Date: 28/06/10

Teams: Brazil V Chile - Score: 3 - 0

My Recommendation:
We will adopt a similar strategy as the Argentina game and lay Chile.

Our Trading Result:
We layed Chile with £31. Never a problem.



Profit made on this trade = £31


Date: 03/07/10

Teams: Spain V Paraguay - Score: 1 - 0

My Recommendation:
Spain finally have hit the form that we recognised earlier in the season.  The loss against Switzerland looks increasingly like a blip, so we will lay Paraguay following a similar strategy to the last 2 games

Our Trading Result:
We layed Paraguay with £24, trading out with £10 as became increasingly concerned about Spain.



Profit made on this trade = £14

 


 

 
 
 
 








go back to results page - go back to top of page