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Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
|
Manchester U V Newcastle U
|
|
|
20/01/08 |
Inverness CT V Rangers |
0 - 1 |
£29 |
20/01/08 |
Ath Madrid V Real Madrid |
0 - 2 |
£82 |
27/01/08 |
Ath Bilbao v Barcelona |
1 - 1 |
£150 |
03/02/08 |
Ajax v Feyenoord |
3 - 0 |
£62 |
10/02/08 |
B. Munich V W. Bremen |
1 - 1 |
£100 |
17/02/08 |
|
2 - 1 |
-£10 |
19/02/08 |
|
2 - 1 |
£38 |
24/02/08 |
St Mirren V Celtic |
0 - 1 |
£51 |
27/02/08 |
Inter Milan V Roma |
1 - 1 |
£10 |
04/03/08 |
Manchester Utd V Lyon |
1 - 0 |
£30 |
08/03/08 |
Manchester Utd V Portsmouth |
0 - 1 |
£135 |
08/03/08 |
Liverpool V Newcastle |
3 - 0 |
£ N/A |
15/03/08 |
Liverpool V Reading |
2 - 1 |
£8 |
23/03/08 |
Lyon V PSG |
4 - 2 |
£40 |
29/03/08 |
Rangers V Celtic |
1 - 0 |
£170 |
06/04/08 |
Middlesbrough V Man Utd |
2 - 2 |
- £40 |
08/04/08 |
Liverpool V Arsenal |
4 - 2 |
£47 |
13/04/08 |
Juventus v AC Milan |
3 - 2 |
£64 |
16/04/08 |
Celtic V Rangers |
2 - 1 |
£10 |
19/04/08 |
Roma V Livorno |
1 - 1 |
£5 |
22/04/08 |
Liverpool V Chelsea |
1 - 1 |
£60 |
27/04/08 |
Celtic V Rangers |
3 - 2 |
-£55 |
29/04/08 |
Manchester Utd V Barcelona |
1 - 0 |
£49 |
04/05/08 |
Hibernian v Rangers |
0 - 0 |
£34 |
04/05/08 |
AC Milan v Inter Milan |
2 - 1 |
£27 |
10/05/08 |
W Bremen v Hannover |
6 - 1 |
£8 |
07/06/08 |
Switzerland v Czech Republic |
0 - 1 |
£99 |
08/06/08 |
Austria V Croatia |
0 - 1 |
£45 |
10/06/08 |
Holland V Italy |
3 - 0 |
£97 |
12/06/08 |
Croatia v Germany |
2 - 1 |
£30 |
13/06/08 |
Holland V France |
4 - 1 |
£33 |
15/06/08 |
Czech Republic V Turkey
|
2 - 3 |
- £52 |
18/06/08 |
|
2 - 0 |
£85 |
19/06/08 |
Portugal V Germany |
2 - 3 |
£128 |
17/08/08 |
Aston Villa V Manchester City |
4 - 2 |
£32 |
go
back to results page
Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 12/01/08 |
| Time: 17.15hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Manchester U v. Newcastle U - SCORE: 6 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Manchester U have won their last 6 encounters with Newcastle. They have also won their last 10 league matches at home. The last time they failed to win at home in the league was a 0-0 draw with Reading last August.
Against this, Newcastle are (at time of writing) without a manager and their record in the last 10 away Premiership matches reads 6 defeats, 2 draws and 2 wins (None of the wins or draws coming against the Big 4). Indeed their only away successes were against Bolton and Fulham. If you needed further evidence, it is likely that they will have all their big guns fit and ready and they have had the 'luxury' of a whole week off – something they will not get once the Champions League gets going again. Neither have not suffered badly with departures to the African Cup while, by comparison, Newcastle will be missing 3 of their senior squad.
So everything seems to point to a home win. Of course the odds to some extent reflect this, with Man U. at 1.28 when this was written. It is therefore advised that you wait for the odds to drift upwards to get better value (Though you do risk being taken by surprise if Man U start quickly). There is some evidence to suggest that the 'risk' of missing out is worth it. Manchester U, on average, take around 41 minutes to score their first goal – much better than many teams, but perhaps not as quick as you would expect for a team second in the league. At home, in the last 6 of their last 7 league matches, their opening goal came after more than 20 minutes. The exception was against Fulham a month ago (Ronaldo after 10 minutes).
If Manchester U start strongly, you are advised to ‘risk’ waiting around 20 minutes before backing them and laying out when they score first (Completely or partially depending upon the level of dominance). You will need to judge when to get on partly by how well Man U start and partly how quickly the odds drift to 1.4 or better. However, if Manchester United start poorly (and it has happened on more than one occasion this season, though mainly away from home), then you should consider waiting for the second half and either backing Man U at odds of 1.9 or better, or laying the draw. But honestly, I cannot see any result other than a home win. Of course, to enter the cliché of the month competition, “football’s a funny old game”, so do bear in mind Plan B if things do not go as expected.
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Trading Result:
The game went almost exactly to plan. Manchester U dominated and, also as expected, the breakthrough did not come right away, in fact not until early in the 2nd half. I got in at around 1.3 for £30 profit. As Manchester U were in charge I decided to back them further at 1-0, securing a total match profit of £77. Since this was not recommended pre-match this is not reported in the official report but listed as "inplay" profit. This terminology will be adopted for future trades.
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Inplay Profit = £47 Match Profit = £30
Total =£77
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| Date: 20/01/08 |
| Time: 14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Inverness CT v Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Although it should be an away win, Inverness usually give the 'Gers a hard match at home. I can certainly see at least 2 goals in this, possible even an early one (and who knows, maybe even for Inverness!) so consider trading on the overs once the odds look favourable. The braver might also want back an away win - but that could be a 'gamble' more than a trade.
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Trading Result:
If ever there were a match that demonstrated the value of trading rather than conventional gambling this was it. After 20 minutes it was already clear that the match was a closed shop – few chances and Rangers looked lethargic. Indeed it wasn’t until the last 20 minutes that the match opened out, with Rangers finally upping the tempo so the draw was layed (as were Cally for a small amount), yielding £35. However the 0-0 had also been covered with £6 hence the overall £29 profit (0-0 would have yielded a bigger profit). For the overs, I did not get in until average 2.9 having been under whelmed by the lack of goalmouth action. This was adjusted just after half-time giving a massive 66p profit on the trade (Total liability had been reduced to £42 on overs by the end)
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Inplay Profit = £29 Match Profit = £0.66
Total =£29.66
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| Date: 20/01/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Athletico Madrid v. Real Madrid - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
Although it is hard to predict the winner of this match, (especially as it is a derby) it is highly likely that there will be goals at some point. If anything, current form points to an away win. Copa del Rey excluded, Real Madrid have recently found it hard to stop winning. They have won 6/6 of their last Primera league matches and have not been beaten at the Calderon since 1999 . However, Real could easily have dropped points in all 3 of their last matches and Athletico will almost certainly raise their game for this one. They have the further boost of a good mid-week cup win behind them.
With all these facts in mind, a trade on over 2.5 is advised at better than 1.96 (don't wait too long if it looks reasonably open). As usual, trade out after the first goal or two. You might want to cover this with a small trade on 0-0 (but only a small amount as I would be truly amazed if this were to finish goalless) If, on the other hand, it looks tighter than expected (with players like Robinho, Van Nistelrooy and, yes, even Forlan on the pitch, surely not!) then lay the draw at odds better than 3.4 and wait for the first goal to trade out (a similar cover bet can be made on 0-0 in this case).
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Trading Result:
The first goal came after only thirty seconds (!) and so there wasn’t enough time to get the trade on. However, if you decided to get on the overs right away, well done, you would have made a very nice profit!
Real Madrid looked on top form from the start and some heavy in-play backing for Real on the Half-time and full-time markets still brought an overall profit of £82.
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Inplay Profit = £82 Match Profit = £0
Total =£82
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| Date: 27/01/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Ath Bilbao v Barcelona - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Athletic have been struggling of late and their home record this season is none too impressive with only 2 wins out of 10. Furthermore, Barcelona are showing some signs of recovering their old form. Athletic’s record at home to Barca reads 4 defeats, 1 win and 1 draw. Therefore, an away win is the most likely outcome. The overs market is probably best avoided: Recent Barca results show that in their last 10, 5 were over and 5 were under.
Despite the evidence in favour of a Barca win, I will be starting cautiously since on some of these occasions the home team can raise their game particularly with the vocal support behind them at the Estadio San Mamés. If this is the case, then a lay of the draw at better than 3.5 could be the better option. Even then a Barca goal on the break would be possible (in which case trade out again) and you should still be able to cover your losses if Athletic score first.
However, if Barca dominate then look to back them at better than 1.8.
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Trading Result:
The match started slowly and in all honesty I could not see an early goal coming. As the draw odds were higher than anticipated (4.2) I decided to wait until 3.5 to trade and if you had got in just when it hit 3.5 you would have made a very handy profit. Everything changed after 30 min's. when Athletic, true to form, missed a wonderful chance to take the lead, Aduriz spooning the ball over from 5 yards out. It was just then that the draw odds hit 3.5 but I just missed it for the Athletic miss seemed to finally spur Barca into life and a minute later they took the lead. So made nothing on the recommended trade, but you should have made something. However, I made an excellent profit in-play (£150) by first backing then laying Barca (Who never hit any sort of form) and then backing and laying the draw. The latter was rather risky since the price took longer to drop than I anticipated, although there were less than 10 minutes left! This is the first result I got wrong, but if I make as much profit from all such results then I will not complain. (I have not counted a further smaller profit made on the under's nor a £4 loss on the 0-0). However, if had followed my advice exactly you would also have made a tidy profit on the trade.
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Inplay Profit = £150 Match Profit = £0
Total =£150
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| Date: 03/02/08 |
| Time: 11.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Eredivisie |
| Teams: Ajax v Feyenoord - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
The last 5 matches between these 2 were all relatively high scoring affairs; indeed the last 3 had at least 4 goals each. Games involving both of these also average more than 2.5 (though Feyenoord only marginally). So there is a strong likelihood of more than 2.5 goals here again, and for that reason I advise backing over 2.5, and trading out after the first goal. You might want to see how the play develops and this way should achieve odds of better than 1.9 (of course you risk not getting on in time, but that's always better than backing too early and finding the match, unexpectedly, turns into stalemate). Watch the weather., however, as poor conditions will not assist an open match. For those that do get on early I also advise covering any potential loses with a small amount on 0-0. Finally, in case it takes a time for the first goal, you could consider laying the draw if things look open and the odds are less than 2.8.
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Trading Result:
The match went rather as anticipated but not the odds started at just over 1.6. The tactic was to make a small trade and wait for better odds. However an early goal put pay to the chance of an more substantial trade. A small cover trade on 0-0 meant that there was only a low profit on the trade (£12) but the bolder amongst you would have been able to profit nicely. The only real surprise is that Ajax’s victory margin wasn’t greater and 5-0 or 6-0 would have been a fairer reflection on the play. I have seldom seen so many appalling misses in one game! Backing Ajax further on the half-time and full-time markets brought a total match profit of £50.
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Inplay Profit = £50 Match Profit = £12
Total =£62
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| Date: 10/02/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 1 |
| Teams: Bayern Munich V Weder Bremen - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
This match could go a long way to deciding the final destination of the Bundesliga title. At the start of the season Bayern were expected to walk away with the title, but a series of indifferent performances meant that they finished level on points at the winter break. They turned in a rather unconvincing performance in their last match, a 2-1 away win against struggling Hansa Rostock. But Bremen started even more poorly, going down 2-1 to Bochum. Bayern are rightly favorites to win this one, but with Frank Ribbery out, and considering recent form, there is insufficient evidence to recommend backing them. However, one thing I am fairly sure of is that there will be goals in this match, though possible not many. Going back to last season, there has never been a goalless match involving either of these sides against another top 5 team. The average number of goals has been just over 3. Despite the absence of Ribbery, both team possess players well capable of finding the net. In view of this, I recommend laying the draw. The only potential problem is that you may have to wait a little while for the odds to drift to better than 3.5. Therefore, if a goal looks likely in the first 15 minutes, back over 2.5 and then trade out as soon as possible. But remember that while overs is a reasonable trade, laying the draw is the safer option, so keep overs as a modest side trade.
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Trading Result:
For the second match in a row there was an early goal. Now, you will remember that I advised you to trade on the overs to cover an early goal, but I must admit that I didn't expect one as early as 6 minutes, when Diego put Bremen in front. It seems to becoming a habit in my selected matches for there to be early goals (you will remember the Real Madrid match recently had a goal after 30 seconds!). So once more, due to the unfavorable odds I did not get on, but with Bremen controlling things in the first 20 minutes I was able to trade in and out (twice) to net £100 on the half-time market.
There was a rather tricky time when Bayern rallied after 20 minutes or so, but Bremen finished the half strongly. By the time of the missed penalty and equalizer from Bayern, I had had enough time to reduce my liability.
There was no trade in the second half. A nice profit at the expense of some half bitten nails. Next time I am trading on the overs before match begins to cover these early goals.
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Inplay Profit = £100 Match Profit = £0
Total =£100
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| Date: 17/02/08 |
| Time: 19.55 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Ligue 1 Orange |
| Teams: Marseille v Paris St-G - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
This match pairs together the biggest underachievers in the Le Championnat. Both were expected to challenge Lyon. Both have failed miserably. In particular PSG, who currently sit just three points of the relegation zone, have been abysmal. Yet both teams, Marseilles in particular, have shown signs of recovery. Marseilles have hit 14 goals in their last 4 matches and PSG have lost just one of their last six, which in the context of their season is somewhat of an achievement. I would expect Marseilles to win this, but due to PSG’s unpredictability, will opt for the safer option of laying the draw and then trading out, hopefully after a Marseilles goal – if PSG score first look to trade out for no loss. Four of the last five between these 2 finished under 2.5 goals so, as a side bet, and only if it looks tight, back under 2.5 goals and then trade out when the odds slide. Do not wait much longer than 25 minutes to do so.
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Trading Result:
As suggested, it was possible to trade out for no loss in the event of PSG taking the lead. Following the PSG equalizer a smaller trade on the lay was possible, bringing £30 profit on the trade after Marseilles went ahead.
Alas, with regard to the under's market, I was somewhat caught out on the award of a ridiculous PSG penalty and though I traded out partially after the goal, there was insufficient time before the Marseilles equalizer to avoid a £50 loss. I traded on the Marseilles win but also traded out substantially again in the second half when Marseilles started to make heavy weather of what should have been a comfortable win. (I lost count of the number of corner kicks that Marseilles conceded!). So this left only £10 profit and an overall loss of £10.
Trade profit: -£20
In-play profit: £10
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Inplay Profit = -£20 Match Profit = £10
Total = -£10
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| Date: 19/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Roma V Real Madrid - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Real Madrid, Champions League, February 19th 2008 Going back 3 seasons, only 2 out of the last 48 Champions League first knockout round matches have finished goalless. Of course this could be random variation. But both Real Madrid and Roma possess plenty of firepower and this leads one to suspect that there will be at least one goal here. Real are certainly well capable of the away goal. Also in 5 of their group stage matches, there were 22 goals, 13 for Real and 9 for the opposition. (the one exception was a goalless draw at home to Olympiacos) Despite this, I will not be backing overs unless it looks particularly open. The better option is to lay the draw and depending upon the time of the goal there should be a good opportunity to trade out either with a small or large profit. If I had to predict the winner, then I would clearly opt for Real, particularly as they have won the last 3 in the eternal city. But these cup matches can be unpredictable; if Real look strong I may consider laying Roma, but the official recommendation will remain the lay of the draw. If you really want to cover all options then back 0-0 with a small trade to cover your liability.
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Trading Result:
An excellent, entertaining match also yielded the small profit – had the first goal been a bit later I would have been for a larger amount, but was still able to lay the draw and trade out for £21 profit. as you will have read in previous reports I have been caught out too often previously by the early goal and was determined to avoid a repeat. Therefore I traded early on the overs – the open play in any case justified it- and this brought a further £17 profit (Following the trade outs at 1-0 and 1-1). The only surprise was that Roma finished on top, because they looked liked conceding several when they went 1-0 down, but in the end they probably just about justified the win due to the spirit of their fight back. Perhaps not as large a profit as I would have hoped for, but the early goals do tend to make things harder.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £38
Total = £38
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| Date: 24/02/08 |
| Time: 14.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: St Mirren V Celtic - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
I expect a Celtic win here, though you will need to adopt a wait-and-see strategy before trading. This is because Celtic may be tired from their mid-week exertions. The corresponding fixture last September was an easy 5-1 win for Celtic. Their record at home to the Old Firm since returning to the Premier league is not encouraging with 3 defeats out of 3, though they did get a shock 1-1 draw at Parkhead. Though Saints are capable of raising their game at home, they could just as easy put in one of their shocking performances: for instance, they have shipped 10 goals to mighty Falkirk in their last 2 meetings. So all in all I will look to back Celtic in this, but if Celtic look jaded consider waiting for odds better than 1.5 before backing them. If St Mirren score first back them again and trade out after the equalizer. Finally, if St Mirren decide it is time to put in one of their better performances, consider the overs instead, but only if the game is end to end.
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Trading Result:
If there is one thing that is predictable about Celtic, it is that they will score in the last 5 minutes, usually from a Nakamura free kick (for Nakamura read Larsson a few seasons back). This is especially true when Celtic are playing badly. Celtic’s performance was so uninspiring that I soon abandoned the plan of backing them in the first half, at least substantially. Certainly Celtic did most of the pressing yet the Saints defence looked comfortable for the most part. But nor did the Saints look like scoring so I backed unders (unfortunately not early enough to bring substantial profit – though this did yield £10.) There was only one slightly uneasy moment when Saints almost scored from a break away in the first half (as I had a £60 liability on Saints at the time!). I adopted a plan of backing the draw and trading out in stages, especially towards the end. I was looking out for the late goal – the only regret was that I did not make a more substantial trade but I did trade out at 1.3 for £30 profit.
Another trade on the half-time market brought my total profit for the match to £51. All in all a fairly uninspiring match but a satisfactory trade. I have counted only £5 of my total profit as the official trade -though it is hard to calculate exactly as my actual trade also involved the draw.
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Inplay Profit = £5 Match Profit = £46
Total = £51
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| Date: 27/02/08 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Inter Milan V Roma - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Inter will be looking to move further clear of Roma in the race for the Scudetto. Despite an away draw at Sampdoria last Sunday, they are already 9 points clear; in the meantime Roma were fortunate to grab a win at home to Fiorentina. However Roma have an excellent record at the San Siro, winning on the last 2 occasions. It is therefore really hard to predict the winner in this match, but I am confident that there will be goals, particularly if Inter have their main strikers Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Julio Cruz back from injury. I recommend laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If it is tight at the start, you could wait for the odds to drift to lower than 3, perhaps staggering your bet and laying again at, or just after, half-time.
I expect a really open match as Roma cannot afford to hold out for the draw, but if it is tight you could also consider covering any loss by backing 0-0 for a small amount. A worse case scenario is that Roma score first – but then you should be able to trade out for no loss. Finally, if it is open and Inter’s main strikers are back, consider a side-trade on overs. There have been at least 2 goals in 5 out of the last 6 Serie A meetings.
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Trading Result:
The match went roughly as expected in the first half. It was no surprise when Roma took the lead. I got on lay gradually, at 2.8 average odds. However it was only a small amount so though I successfully traded out at 3.1 after the Roma goal, it only brought a paltry £4 profit. In the second half I was sufficiently impressed by Roma to lay Inter and after they went down to 10 men (through injuries) I was convinced that the man advantage would give Roam the win. Indeed, there were several occasions when they should have made it 2-0. At this stage I was sitting on what looked like a fairly safe £65 profit. Alas, Roma decided to shoot themselves in the foot when Mexes was sent off for second yellow card . Needless to say it was then an entirely different game and I therefore traded out of Roma, leaving a small further profit on the draw (£6). This was fully justified when, again unsurprisingly, Inter equalized. A little disappointing not to have a larger profit on this, but most of you should have been able to at least break even on this match (the bolder will have made a larger profit).
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Inplay Profit = £4 Match Profit = £6
Total = £10
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| Date: 04/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Chanpions League |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Lyon - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Manchester United have recently hit impressive form and will be full of confidence going into this vital 2nd leg. Tevez’s strike near the end in France definitely tipped the tie in the home side’s favour and, aside from Giggs, they have no real injury concerns going into this match. Alex Ferguson sees winning the competition again as his mission, and I would certainly not be surprised to see a home victory. But Lyon are a team worthy of respect, and have also recovered from poor performances towards the end of last year. Benzema and Govou are both capable of getting the away goal. For this reason I will be opting for the safer lay of the draw, which as usual should allow you to trade out for no loss if Lyon score first. I am also expecting a reasonably open match. A 1-1 score line in the knock-out phase of this competition usually presages goals in the 2nd leg – in 13 such games since 1993, the average goals per game has been well over 3. This is to be expected as the away team need at some point to go for the goal. And both teams have plenty of goals scores, so as a small side bet I will be trading on the overs, trading out after a goal. If it is tight at the start stagger your trade or wait for odds to improve.
Ammendment - the draw odds are much higher than expected - David will be waiting for the odds to drop (maybe by half-time) before laying the draw. He will still be looking seriously at the overs market!
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Trading Result:
Due to the high odds on the draw I decided against trading on the draw, preferring to wait to see if the odds dropped sufficiently prior to the first goal. With regard to the overs, although Manchester United were dominant, Lyons had decided to play it tight so I decided to trade on the unders instead – this is of course the beauty of in-play trading, you can switch according to evidence of your own eyes. I had traded out sufficiently by the time of the goal to have only a minor liability on overs. I repeated this with a smaller amount, trading out towards the end in case of late goals leaving a profit of £30. (In fact, when I had traded out sufficiently to ensure no loss I was able to switch to viewing to the Sevilla match which was far more exciting! However, had you decided to trade on the draw as suggested, you would also have profited as after the Manchester United goal the odds changes from over 4 to over 8 (extraordinarily high given Lyon’s strikers – indeed they hit the post and so almost pulled of the 1-1. But as I said, it is better to avoid laying when the odds are so high. So at least a profit with minimum risk! I have counted this as in-play profit since the trade suggested was the opposite.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £30
Total = £30
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| Date: 08/03/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA Cup |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Portsmouth - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
I will be looking to lay the draw if the opportunity presents itself for better odds than 3.0 around half-time. (it may, of course, be too late by then - but hopefully at least one of these matches will present an opportunity. Again, there is a fairly low probably of 0-0 and the chances are the home team will score first. If not, as with the Liverpool game played later today, you should be able to trade out with no loss.
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Trading Result:
This match turned into an even better trading opportunity than I was expecting. In the first half it did not look like a goal would come for some time, despite Manchester United dominance. This enabled me to trade on unders and then trade out again as the odds dropped – with the intention of using this as a cover for my main trade on lay of overs. This worked a treat with only one dicey moment when United should really have taken the lead but for a goal line clearance from Johnstone. However, 5 minutes into the second half the odds on the draw were stubbornly hovering around 3.75.
I felt this was far too high, especially with Portsmouth making a fair showing at the start of the half – So I backed the draw with £20 and was able to start trading out 5 minutes later at 3.15 with total average odds of 2.8.
By 67 minutes I was in the happy position of no loss on overs and £120 profit on unders, with £20 profit on the draw and zero loss elsewhere. Given this situation, I decided I could afford to ‘risk’ waiting further to trade out further on the unders – even though I must say around 70 minutes a goal from United looked inevitable. In fact, by 75 minutes the world ‘miracle’ often came to mind that United had not scored. I will resist the cliché ‘name on the cup’. Yet, there was smoothing about Portsmouth’s dogged performance that made me feel it was worth waiting for a late goal (or no goal at all) . When Portsmouth nipped upfield for a breakaway penalty and goalkeeper sending off the clichés were indeed flying! Those who waited as advised for the odds to drop would have found an easy opportunity to trade out for profit after this. (Draw odds of around 4). A further quick lay and trade out on Manchester United netted a further £15 (I was hoping for an equaliser by the end as this would have given another £20 profit).
So a nice profit of £135 – as usual counted ‘in-play’ profit due to the change of strategy as the match unfolded.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £135
Total = £135
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| Date: 08/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool V Newcastle - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Liverpool seem to have finally hit some consistent form in the Premiership. Newcastle have been, well, to be polite, poor. I am not going to win any prizes for originality when I say that Liverpool should win this. This season I have been reluctant to recommend Liverpool in the Premiership. But given their recent improvement and Newcastle’s lack of confidence, it would be surprising if Liverpool do not finish on top. Yet it is probably still worth being a little cautious before lumping on Liverpool. I will wait and see how they start. Once the odds to drift to better than 1.5 I will consider backing Liverpool (if they look like they are still playing as well as last time out against West Ham). Otherwise I will leave alone and instead consider laying the draw once the odds are better than 3.0 – it will probably take at least until half-time for this to happen, but if they are still level then I think it would present a good opportunity. It is probably a big ‘if’ but then you can at least look elsewhere. The probability is high of at least one goal. Newcastle usually concede on the road (the 1-0 defeat of Fulham being the only exception). Following the above strategy will, I believe, ensure at worst zero loss, as long as you remember to leave well alone if Liverpool look like they are reverting to their former ways.
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Trading Result:
Those of you followed my advice to back Liverpool at better than 1.5 will have made a nice profit, because Liverpool’s first came just after the odds went over this. Alas problems with my video link meant I could not see the match and I prefer not to trade on matches that I cannot see. But well done to those who profited! Although I did not see the game, I assume from the scroreline that it was the recent version of Liverpool who turned up.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £0
Total = £0
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| Date: 15/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool V Reading - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
There have been 21 goals in the last 5 Premiership meetings between these two, including a 4-3 at Anfield in October 2006. Liverpool are definitely on an upward spiral. As long as Torres is playing, I think it is fairly safe to say that this will have at least a couple of goals, though more likely from Liverpool, as Reading have only scored once in their last 7 outings. Furthermore, Liverpool won all 5 of their last meetings. This makes backing Liverpool tempting, until you remember that, without even checking, I can tell you the odds will not be favourable, so I think this is only an option if Liverpool are still level going into the second half. Therefore, I will recommend a steady, cautious, back of overs, trading out for no loss on unders if it still goalless at half-time. The Liverpool back will be a side bet.
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Trading Result:
In some ways, this went exactly as predicted, but the early goal from Reading was certainly the only surprise. Those who got in early on the overs will have done very well, but alas the goal came just a bit too early for me. A modest backing of Liverpool brought £8 profit. Not such a big sum as last time, but a win is a win!
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £8
Total = £8
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| Date: 23/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Ligue 1 |
| Teams: Lyon V PSG - SCORE: 4 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
This looks like a certain home win – but of course there is no such thing in football. PSG are struggling near the foot of the table while Lyon, 6 points clear in le championnat, are marching inexorably towards a league and cup double. There is a strong rivalry between the clubs so Lyon will certainly not be complacent (the only danger of teams that have such a clear lead at the top). One cautionary fact is that PSG’s away record has been better than their home record! I will therefore suggest a more cautious lay of the draw once the odds drift below 3.6 – you can make a small trade on overs if a quick goal looks likely then trade out once you have made the lay bet. As usual, if PSG do score first, it should be possible to trade out for little or no loss – but I will consider backing Lyon if this happens. Indeed, if Lyon are dominating near the start consider backing them –at odds of better than 1.6 (easily possible baring the early goal) If you need further convincing, Lyon’s home record reads: W12 D2 L1, they have scored an average of 3 goals a game and have won their last 5 league matches. To summarize, main recommendation is lay of draw with backing Lyon as a possible side trade.
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Trading Result:
Great game which went as anticipated at the start. Lyon were all over PSG at the start and it was really no surprise when they took the lead after only 8 minutes. Those who took my advice to back overs in this case will have done nicely. I actually traded on Lyon instead as I felt a goal was inevitable.
My only regret was that I also decided to stagger my stake – so the profit on this was just £15. It looked at one stage that a rout was on the cards, especially when Fred grabbed his second. However, Lyon then became complacent and PSG fought back to 2-2. It took the second goal to finally wake up Lyon and at this stage I decided to lay PSG. A further small back of Lyon brought total profit to £40. Again, I have counted this as in-play profit.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £40
Total = £40
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| Date: 29/03/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Rangers V Celtic - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
I originally wrote the preview for this match shortly before it was postponed. However, looking at what I wrote then, I do not see the need to change much.
It is always hard to predict the outcome of an Old Firm game. While recent form indicates a home win, it is better to be cautious. Yet there has been a pattern to these matches in recent times: The openings tend to be tight, cagey affairs. As I wrote back in January:“Recent history suggests that there will not be many goals in this. Apart from the most recent (3-0 to Rangers), the five previous league games all had less than 3 goals. What is also interesting is that not only have there been few goals recently [aside from the last one] it has taken at least 20 minutes for the first goal. Indeed none of the last 6…..had a goal before the first 28 minutes (Of the last 13, only 3 had a goal by 20 minutes).”A defeat for Celtic now would be far more damaging to their title hopes, but they will be going for a win. Therefore it may well open out in the latter stages; I do not expect 0-0. Putting all this together, back under 2.5 early in the game and trade out after around 15-30 minutes. The time to trade out will depend upon how open the game becomes. If it still level around 60 minutes a lay of the draw may well also be a good side bet. Be prepared to change position quickly if the game develops in a different way- you may even find shifting to backing over 2.5 is worthwhile later on if the game becomes stretched. People joining the chat room will therefore benefit from advice in-play. Well, I did say the Old Firm games are unpredictable!
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Trading Result:
The game went exactly to plan. As predicted few goals and the one that did come was late on in the second half, Although Celtic dominated the first half in terms of possession they never looked too dangerous so it was not a complete surprise when Rangers took the lead. The timing allowed me to back under's once more, having already largely traded out of my original stake. I got on originally at 1.75 and traded out for average odds of 1.42. Even better, second time round the odds dropped quickly so I was able to trade in at 1.65 and trade out for average odds of around 1.33. This brought total profit on the trade to £162. A much smaller trade on Rangers in-play brought the total profit to a handy £170.
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Inplay Profit = £8 Match Profit = £162
Total = £170
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| Date: 06/04/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Middlesbrough V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
Manchester United have arguably hit their best form since winning the Champions League nine years ago. So they are rightly strong favorites to win this game. Yet Middlesbrough have a habit of putting in strong performances when least expected. They were unlucky not to come away from Stamford Bridge with at least a point and they did bag a draw away to Arsenal. The recent history of games between these two reads three wins to Man. United and three draws, and indeed the most likely outcome here is either an away win or a score draw. Therefore the safest option is lay the draw, trading out after hopefully a goal for United. You are best advised to wait for the draw odds to drop below 3.8 before jumping in, however. If it looks like Manchester United are dominating, backing them will be a good side trade. The biggest danger here is of United scoring before the odds drop sufficiently. If this looks likely, a small trade on overs or Manchester United could be made. This will need to be judged in-play.
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Trading Result:
This proved a tricky game thanks to Boro’s habit of playing out of their skin against the top 4. United started strongly and scored early on. The goal was so early that I only had time to put a small amount on them. At this stage it looked like United were on course for an easy win but I did warn you before the match that Boro can turn it on when least expected, Alas the Boro goal came out of the blue and so was on £100 deficit when Boro took the lead. Worse, at 1-1 I was just about to lay the draw when Boro scored again (we decided that the best course of action was to wait for the draw odds to less than 3 but they just had just hit that when Boro scored!).
I managed to reduce the loss on the draw further by trading in and out of Boro (at 2-1) and further back and lay of the draw (at 2-2) reduced the loss to £80. A side trade of laying 2-1 also delivered £40 bringing the overall loss down to £40. Slightly unfortunate start to the trading room but it can happen, and although the game did not go according to plan, (and United’s worse performance in some time, in fact at one time they were really struggling for the point) you would at least have been able to reduce your losses by sensible in-play trading. We look forward to a more positive result next time in the chat room!
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £0
Total = - £40
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| Date: 08/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Liverpool V Arsenal - SCORE: 4 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
As I mentioned last February prior to the Real Madrid - Roma clash, only 2 of the last 48 Champions League knockout matches have finished goalless.
That figure now reads: 2 out of the last 60. So while I am not expecting a goal fest, there is a high probability of at least one goal here. So who will win? Well, I really think the winner is impossible to predict so will be leaving this market alone. (I have sneaking suspicion that Arsenal may come good, but it would be foolish to back against Liverpool's impressive record in the Champion's League). It could well be another tight opening, however and I would not be surprised if we had to wait some time before the first goal. The main recommendation is to lay the draw. As the odds are already favorable (around 3.2 on last check) there will be no real advantage in waiting for the odds to drift this time. If a goal comes early, you should still be able to make a profit (though it might be a smaller one) Those who wish to cover the 0-0 could do so, but honestly I cannot see this finishing goalless. If it looks tight then a cautious trade on under's might be considered, but be careful with this as it is easy to get caught out by the unexpected goal (and in any case you should certainly trade out of it by no later than 20-25 minutes). This will be a judgment made in-play.
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Trading Result:
What a game this was – and the plan to lay the draw immediately paid off when Arsenal took the lead early on. A later goal would have increased profit but having laid at 3.2 before the match it was possible to get out at 4.0 after the goal, leaving a profit of £40 (and of £20 had the game finished level). A further small trade on half-time market brought total profit to £42 and a further trade on the overs/under 2.5 brought £5. Back to form! And more pleasing result for the second trading room event.
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Inplay Profit = £7 Match Profit = £40
Total = £47
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| Date: 13/04/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Juventus v AC Milan - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
3rd plays 5th in Serie A. AC Milan have a couple of their key defenders out through suspension (Nesta, if he loses his appeal, and Kaladze). Juventus had a very impressive away win to Inter Milan but their recent home form has been far from convincing, while Milan’s away form is also patchy. I think you can probably see the way this is going. Although this may be a tight game, there have been few goalless games in matches involving Juventus at home to other top 5 teams (2 in 27). And with players of the calibre of Kaka, we should get some goals. So the safest option here is to lay the draw. The current odds mean that, like the last trading-room game, it is probably not worth waiting too long before getting involved. We were successful last time out and I think our in-play joiners will have a good chance of profiting once more. Both teams are good to watch so it should be an entertaining game.
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Trading Result:
My final sentence in the preview could not have been more prophetic. It was an absolutely stupendous game with goalmouth incidents galore. Though a few of you who joined the chat room were concerned that you had missed the boat for trading out due to the speed of the equalizer, coming 2 minutes after Milan’s opener, I was not too concerned as the first-half was incredibly open and peppered with defensive errors. So 2-2 at half-time was a fair refection of the play. By this time I had been able to lay and trade out twice, bringing profit to £44. I also advised people to wait until the draw odds dropped until 2.0 before laying again as the second half became somewhat tighter; but another goal always looked likely. This brought total profit to £64. A further small profit on the half-time market was cancelled out by a £5 cover bet on 0-0 made before the start. Another good result of the trading room!
I would just like to say well done to Ted who took my advice to lay the draw again at odds of 2.0 for £81 profit. Using different stakes he actually made £177 from my inplay support on this match, which was the 1st time he had every traded!
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Inplay Profit = £20 Match Profit = £44
Total = £64
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| Date: 16/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams:Celtic V Rangers - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
The Old Firm do battle once more and it is clear that Celtic need a win to keep their championship hopes alive. Once again, I do not see any reason to change the preview from last time. We will be trading on the under's at the start, and be prepared to come out by 25 minutes or even sooner should things open out. We also lay the draw, trading out after a goal. In the case of two quick goals making it level again (not a totally unthinkable scenario) we will consider trading again on the under's. Each time we will trade out as usual on the draw after a goal. As mentioned before, there is a very good chance of at least one goal here, but it usually takes a little time.
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Trading Result:
We came very close to securing an even larger profit, but alas the goal came seconds before I had planned to trade out – a long range effort (Very lucky, but that last comment is tongue in cheek). However, by trading again on under's and then trading out at around 2.0 I was able to ensure no loss on overs for myself and the room joiners. At 1-1 this was turned into a small profit for all (£10 in my case), by backing and laying again quickly as the odds dropped. Now, at 1-1 it looked inevitable that a goal would be scored, yet I also had a feeling that Rangers could hold out with 10 so the in room joiners were told to lay the draw in a cautious way, retaining an overall profit. I must admit that this looked to be correct with only 2 minutes left and the scores still tied. But the main thing is that a profit was secured for all! We move on to the next one.
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Inplay Profit = £10 Match Profit = £0
Total = £10
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| Date: 19/04/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams:Roma V Livorno - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
A Roma win will see them cut the gap to Inter at the top to just one point, at least temporarily. With only 5 games left, anything else would probably deal a fatal blow to their Scudetto aspirations. Roma’s home form remains superb, with 13 wins in a row. I do not think that the recent speculation over buyers for the club will affect the players. By contrast, they are up against a team who sit bottom of the league, having only picked up 3 points in the last 7, scoring just 3 goals. They have also lost their last 5 on the road without scoring a single goal. Yet they are still only 3 points from safety so will also be motivated to get a good result. This might actually help Roma as Livorno cannot really afford to settle for just one point which could allow for a more open game.
We will therefore back Roma, staggering our stake to chase average odds of 1.3 or better and then trading out after a goal, hopefully from Roma.
Should Livorno score first - though not likely- we will consider backing Roma again if they are playing well.
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Trading Result:
Roma probably blew their faint Scudetto hopes here. They totally dominated until well after their somewhat unimaginative attacking moves deservedly brought the lead. Until then, Livorno had shown little or no attacking ambition. So this, accompanied with the lack of the imagination from Roma and the injury to Totti encouraged me to tell our trading room traders to wait for better value before backing Roma (and the 0-0 was also covered with £19 as I have seen many games of this type end in stalemate). This allowed me to get on at average odds of 1.35 – though we had to wait until the end of the first half for the odds to rise sufficiently. This approach seemed to have been justified when Roma took the lead after 54 minutes. After the Roma goal we advised a trade out at average odds of 1.1, which was also fully justified when Livorno equalised. This left just £10 profit, and a further trade and trade out on the draw (still available at 1.4 with just minutes left!) increased this to £15. So altogether just £5 here, but the cautious approach helped us avoid a potential large loss and after we traded out our attentions largely turned to the exciting events at Ewood Park!
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Inplay Profit = £5 Match Profit = £0
Total = £5
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| Date: 22/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
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