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Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
|
Manchester U V Newcastle U
|
|
|
20/01/08 |
Inverness CT V Rangers |
0 - 1 |
£29 |
20/01/08 |
Ath Madrid V Real Madrid |
0 - 2 |
£82 |
27/01/08 |
Ath Bilbao v Barcelona |
1 - 1 |
£150 |
03/02/08 |
Ajax v Feyenoord |
3 - 0 |
£62 |
10/02/08 |
B. Munich V W. Bremen |
1 - 1 |
£100 |
17/02/08 |
|
2 - 1 |
-£10 |
19/02/08 |
|
2 - 1 |
£38 |
24/02/08 |
St Mirren V Celtic |
0 - 1 |
£51 |
27/02/08 |
Inter Milan V Roma |
1 - 1 |
£10 |
04/03/08 |
Manchester Utd V Lyon |
1 - 0 |
£30 |
08/03/08 |
Manchester Utd V Portsmouth |
0 - 1 |
£135 |
08/03/08 |
Liverpool V Newcastle |
3 - 0 |
£ N/A |
15/03/08 |
Liverpool V Reading |
2 - 1 |
£8 |
23/03/08 |
Lyon V PSG |
4 - 2 |
£40 |
29/03/08 |
Rangers V Celtic |
1 - 0 |
£170 |
06/04/08 |
Middlesbrough V Man Utd |
2 - 2 |
- £40 |
08/04/08 |
Liverpool V Arsenal |
4 - 2 |
£47 |
13/04/08 |
Juventus v AC Milan |
3 - 2 |
£64 |
16/04/08 |
Celtic V Rangers |
2 - 1 |
£10 |
19/04/08 |
Roma V Livorno |
1 - 1 |
£5 |
22/04/08 |
Liverpool V Chelsea |
1 - 1 |
£60 |
27/04/08 |
Celtic V Rangers |
3 - 2 |
-£55 |
29/04/08 |
Manchester Utd V Barcelona |
1 - 0 |
£49 |
04/05/08 |
Hibernian v Rangers |
0 - 0 |
£34 |
04/05/08 |
AC Milan v Inter Milan |
2 - 1 |
£27 |
10/05/08 |
W Bremen v Hannover |
6 - 1 |
£8 |
07/06/08 |
Switzerland v Czech Republic |
0 - 1 |
£99 |
08/06/08 |
Austria V Croatia |
0 - 1 |
£45 |
10/06/08 |
Holland V Italy |
3 - 0 |
£97 |
12/06/08 |
Croatia v Germany |
2 - 1 |
£30 |
13/06/08 |
Holland V France |
4 - 1 |
£33 |
15/06/08 |
Czech Republic V Turkey
|
2 - 3 |
- £52 |
18/06/08 |
|
2 - 0 |
£85 |
19/06/08 |
Portugal V Germany |
2 - 3 |
£128 |
17/08/08 |
Aston Villa V Manchester City |
4 - 2 |
£32 |
22/08/08 |
Aberdeen V Rangers |
1 - 1 |
£25 |
25/08/08 |
Portsmouth V Man Utd |
0 - 1 |
£34 |
31/08/08 |
Celtic V Rangers |
2 - 4 |
£48 |
31/08/08 |
Chelsea V Tottenham |
1 - 1 |
£19 |
31/08/08 |
Aston Villa V Liverpool |
0 - 0 |
£27 |
06/09/08 |
Poland V Slovenia |
1 - 1 |
£5 |
10/09/08 |
Croatia V England |
1 - 4 |
£41 |
13/09/09 |
Liverpool V Man Utd |
2 - 1 |
£15 |
13/09/09 |
Man City V Chelsea |
1 - 3 |
£20 |
15/09/08 |
Tottenham V Aston Villa |
1 - 2 |
£24 |
21/09/08 |
Chelsea V Manchester Utd |
1 - 1 |
£5 |
24/09/08 |
Newcastle V Tottenham |
2 - 1 |
£53 |
28/09/08 |
AC Milan V Inter Milan
|
1 - 0 |
£24 |
30/09/08 |
Bayern Munich V Lyon |
1 - 1 |
£6 |
11/10/08 |
Scotland V Norway |
0 - 0 |
£75 |
11/10/08 |
Sweden V Portugal |
0 - 0 |
£19 |
11/10/08 |
Ukraine V Croatia |
0 - 0 |
-£2 |
18/10/08 |
Man Utd V West Brom |
4 - 0 |
£15 |
18/10/08 |
Alt Madrid V Real Madrid |
1 - 2 |
£23 |
18/10/08 |
Lyon V Lille
|
2 - 2 |
£8 |
25/10/08 |
Hamilton V Rangers |
1 - 3 |
£56 |
26/10/08 |
Chelsea V Liverpool |
0 - 1 |
£22 |
26/10/08 |
Marseilles v. PSG |
2 - 4 |
-£50 |
29/10/08 |
Hull V Chelsea |
0 - 3 |
£38 |
08/11/08 |
Arsenal V Manchester Utd |
2 - 1 |
£10 |
12/11/08 |
Motherwell v. Rangers |
0 - 0 |
£23 |
12/11/08 |
Celtic v Kilmarnock |
3 - 0 |
£11 |
22/11/08 |
Aston Villa V Manchester Utd |
0 - 0 |
£29 |
22/11/08 |
Inter Milan V Juventus |
1 - 0 |
£14 |
29/11/08 |
Bayer Leverkusen V Bayern Munich |
0 - 2 |
£21 |
30/11/08 |
Chelsea V Arsenal |
1 - 2 |
-£15 |
30/11/08 |
Palermo V AC Milan
|
3 - 1 |
£2 |
01/12/08 |
Triestina V Treviso |
0 - 0 |
£1 |
01/12/08 |
Liverpool V West Ham |
0 - 0 |
£27 |
07/12/08 |
Barcelona V Valencia |
2 - 0 |
£13 |
13/12/08 |
Tottenham V Manchester Utd |
0 - 0 |
£39 |
13/12/08 |
Barcelona v Real Madrid |
2 - 0 |
£21 |
21/12/08 |
Arsenal V Liverpool |
1 - 1 |
£20 |
21/12/08 |
Villareal V Barcelona |
1 - 2 |
£32 |
27/12/08 |
Rangers V Celtic |
0 - 1 |
£18 |
go
back to results page
Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 12/01/08 |
| Time: 17.15hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Manchester U v. Newcastle U - SCORE: 6 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Manchester U have won their last 6 encounters with Newcastle. They have also won their last 10 league matches at home. The last time they failed to win at home in the league was a 0-0 draw with Reading last August.
Against this, Newcastle are (at time of writing) without a manager and their record in the last 10 away Premiership matches reads 6 defeats, 2 draws and 2 wins (None of the wins or draws coming against the Big 4). Indeed their only away successes were against Bolton and Fulham. If you needed further evidence, it is likely that they will have all their big guns fit and ready and they have had the 'luxury' of a whole week off – something they will not get once the Champions League gets going again. Neither have not suffered badly with departures to the African Cup while, by comparison, Newcastle will be missing 3 of their senior squad.
So everything seems to point to a home win. Of course the odds to some extent reflect this, with Man U. at 1.28 when this was written. It is therefore advised that you wait for the odds to drift upwards to get better value (Though you do risk being taken by surprise if Man U start quickly). There is some evidence to suggest that the 'risk' of missing out is worth it. Manchester U, on average, take around 41 minutes to score their first goal – much better than many teams, but perhaps not as quick as you would expect for a team second in the league. At home, in the last 6 of their last 7 league matches, their opening goal came after more than 20 minutes. The exception was against Fulham a month ago (Ronaldo after 10 minutes).
If Manchester U start strongly, you are advised to ‘risk’ waiting around 20 minutes before backing them and laying out when they score first (Completely or partially depending upon the level of dominance). You will need to judge when to get on partly by how well Man U start and partly how quickly the odds drift to 1.4 or better. However, if Manchester United start poorly (and it has happened on more than one occasion this season, though mainly away from home), then you should consider waiting for the second half and either backing Man U at odds of 1.9 or better, or laying the draw. But honestly, I cannot see any result other than a home win. Of course, to enter the cliché of the month competition, “football’s a funny old game”, so do bear in mind Plan B if things do not go as expected.
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Trading Result:
The game went almost exactly to plan. Manchester U dominated and, also as expected, the breakthrough did not come right away, in fact not until early in the 2nd half. I got in at around 1.3 for £30 profit. As Manchester U were in charge I decided to back them further at 1-0, securing a total match profit of £77. Since this was not recommended pre-match this is not reported in the official report but listed as "inplay" profit. This terminology will be adopted for future trades.
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Inplay Profit = £47 Match Profit = £30
Total =£77
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| Date: 20/01/08 |
| Time: 14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Inverness CT v Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Although it should be an away win, Inverness usually give the 'Gers a hard match at home. I can certainly see at least 2 goals in this, possible even an early one (and who knows, maybe even for Inverness!) so consider trading on the overs once the odds look favourable. The braver might also want back an away win - but that could be a 'gamble' more than a trade.
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Trading Result:
If ever there were a match that demonstrated the value of trading rather than conventional gambling this was it. After 20 minutes it was already clear that the match was a closed shop – few chances and Rangers looked lethargic. Indeed it wasn’t until the last 20 minutes that the match opened out, with Rangers finally upping the tempo so the draw was layed (as were Cally for a small amount), yielding £35. However the 0-0 had also been covered with £6 hence the overall £29 profit (0-0 would have yielded a bigger profit). For the overs, I did not get in until average 2.9 having been under whelmed by the lack of goalmouth action. This was adjusted just after half-time giving a massive 66p profit on the trade (Total liability had been reduced to £42 on overs by the end)
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Inplay Profit = £29 Match Profit = £0.66
Total =£29.66
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| Date: 20/01/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Athletico Madrid v. Real Madrid - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
Although it is hard to predict the winner of this match, (especially as it is a derby) it is highly likely that there will be goals at some point. If anything, current form points to an away win. Copa del Rey excluded, Real Madrid have recently found it hard to stop winning. They have won 6/6 of their last Primera league matches and have not been beaten at the Calderon since 1999 . However, Real could easily have dropped points in all 3 of their last matches and Athletico will almost certainly raise their game for this one. They have the further boost of a good mid-week cup win behind them.
With all these facts in mind, a trade on over 2.5 is advised at better than 1.96 (don't wait too long if it looks reasonably open). As usual, trade out after the first goal or two. You might want to cover this with a small trade on 0-0 (but only a small amount as I would be truly amazed if this were to finish goalless) If, on the other hand, it looks tighter than expected (with players like Robinho, Van Nistelrooy and, yes, even Forlan on the pitch, surely not!) then lay the draw at odds better than 3.4 and wait for the first goal to trade out (a similar cover bet can be made on 0-0 in this case).
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Trading Result:
The first goal came after only thirty seconds (!) and so there wasn’t enough time to get the trade on. However, if you decided to get on the overs right away, well done, you would have made a very nice profit!
Real Madrid looked on top form from the start and some heavy in-play backing for Real on the Half-time and full-time markets still brought an overall profit of £82.
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Inplay Profit = £82 Match Profit = £0
Total =£82
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| Date: 27/01/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Ath Bilbao v Barcelona - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Athletic have been struggling of late and their home record this season is none too impressive with only 2 wins out of 10. Furthermore, Barcelona are showing some signs of recovering their old form. Athletic’s record at home to Barca reads 4 defeats, 1 win and 1 draw. Therefore, an away win is the most likely outcome. The overs market is probably best avoided: Recent Barca results show that in their last 10, 5 were over and 5 were under.
Despite the evidence in favour of a Barca win, I will be starting cautiously since on some of these occasions the home team can raise their game particularly with the vocal support behind them at the Estadio San Mamés. If this is the case, then a lay of the draw at better than 3.5 could be the better option. Even then a Barca goal on the break would be possible (in which case trade out again) and you should still be able to cover your losses if Athletic score first.
However, if Barca dominate then look to back them at better than 1.8.
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Trading Result:
The match started slowly and in all honesty I could not see an early goal coming. As the draw odds were higher than anticipated (4.2) I decided to wait until 3.5 to trade and if you had got in just when it hit 3.5 you would have made a very handy profit. Everything changed after 30 min's. when Athletic, true to form, missed a wonderful chance to take the lead, Aduriz spooning the ball over from 5 yards out. It was just then that the draw odds hit 3.5 but I just missed it for the Athletic miss seemed to finally spur Barca into life and a minute later they took the lead. So made nothing on the recommended trade, but you should have made something. However, I made an excellent profit in-play (£150) by first backing then laying Barca (Who never hit any sort of form) and then backing and laying the draw. The latter was rather risky since the price took longer to drop than I anticipated, although there were less than 10 minutes left! This is the first result I got wrong, but if I make as much profit from all such results then I will not complain. (I have not counted a further smaller profit made on the under's nor a £4 loss on the 0-0). However, if had followed my advice exactly you would also have made a tidy profit on the trade.
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Inplay Profit = £150 Match Profit = £0
Total =£150
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| Date: 03/02/08 |
| Time: 11.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Eredivisie |
| Teams: Ajax v Feyenoord - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
The last 5 matches between these 2 were all relatively high scoring affairs; indeed the last 3 had at least 4 goals each. Games involving both of these also average more than 2.5 (though Feyenoord only marginally). So there is a strong likelihood of more than 2.5 goals here again, and for that reason I advise backing over 2.5, and trading out after the first goal. You might want to see how the play develops and this way should achieve odds of better than 1.9 (of course you risk not getting on in time, but that's always better than backing too early and finding the match, unexpectedly, turns into stalemate). Watch the weather., however, as poor conditions will not assist an open match. For those that do get on early I also advise covering any potential loses with a small amount on 0-0. Finally, in case it takes a time for the first goal, you could consider laying the draw if things look open and the odds are less than 2.8.
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Trading Result:
The match went rather as anticipated but not the odds started at just over 1.6. The tactic was to make a small trade and wait for better odds. However an early goal put pay to the chance of an more substantial trade. A small cover trade on 0-0 meant that there was only a low profit on the trade (£12) but the bolder amongst you would have been able to profit nicely. The only real surprise is that Ajax’s victory margin wasn’t greater and 5-0 or 6-0 would have been a fairer reflection on the play. I have seldom seen so many appalling misses in one game! Backing Ajax further on the half-time and full-time markets brought a total match profit of £50.
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Inplay Profit = £50 Match Profit = £12
Total =£62
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| Date: 10/02/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga 1 |
| Teams: Bayern Munich V Weder Bremen - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
This match could go a long way to deciding the final destination of the Bundesliga title. At the start of the season Bayern were expected to walk away with the title, but a series of indifferent performances meant that they finished level on points at the winter break. They turned in a rather unconvincing performance in their last match, a 2-1 away win against struggling Hansa Rostock. But Bremen started even more poorly, going down 2-1 to Bochum. Bayern are rightly favorites to win this one, but with Frank Ribbery out, and considering recent form, there is insufficient evidence to recommend backing them. However, one thing I am fairly sure of is that there will be goals in this match, though possible not many. Going back to last season, there has never been a goalless match involving either of these sides against another top 5 team. The average number of goals has been just over 3. Despite the absence of Ribbery, both team possess players well capable of finding the net. In view of this, I recommend laying the draw. The only potential problem is that you may have to wait a little while for the odds to drift to better than 3.5. Therefore, if a goal looks likely in the first 15 minutes, back over 2.5 and then trade out as soon as possible. But remember that while overs is a reasonable trade, laying the draw is the safer option, so keep overs as a modest side trade.
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Trading Result:
For the second match in a row there was an early goal. Now, you will remember that I advised you to trade on the overs to cover an early goal, but I must admit that I didn't expect one as early as 6 minutes, when Diego put Bremen in front. It seems to becoming a habit in my selected matches for there to be early goals (you will remember the Real Madrid match recently had a goal after 30 seconds!). So once more, due to the unfavorable odds I did not get on, but with Bremen controlling things in the first 20 minutes I was able to trade in and out (twice) to net £100 on the half-time market.
There was a rather tricky time when Bayern rallied after 20 minutes or so, but Bremen finished the half strongly. By the time of the missed penalty and equalizer from Bayern, I had had enough time to reduce my liability.
There was no trade in the second half. A nice profit at the expense of some half bitten nails. Next time I am trading on the overs before match begins to cover these early goals.
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Inplay Profit = £100 Match Profit = £0
Total =£100
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| Date: 17/02/08 |
| Time: 19.55 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Ligue 1 Orange |
| Teams: Marseille v Paris St-G - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
This match pairs together the biggest underachievers in the Le Championnat. Both were expected to challenge Lyon. Both have failed miserably. In particular PSG, who currently sit just three points of the relegation zone, have been abysmal. Yet both teams, Marseilles in particular, have shown signs of recovery. Marseilles have hit 14 goals in their last 4 matches and PSG have lost just one of their last six, which in the context of their season is somewhat of an achievement. I would expect Marseilles to win this, but due to PSG’s unpredictability, will opt for the safer option of laying the draw and then trading out, hopefully after a Marseilles goal – if PSG score first look to trade out for no loss. Four of the last five between these 2 finished under 2.5 goals so, as a side bet, and only if it looks tight, back under 2.5 goals and then trade out when the odds slide. Do not wait much longer than 25 minutes to do so.
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Trading Result:
As suggested, it was possible to trade out for no loss in the event of PSG taking the lead. Following the PSG equalizer a smaller trade on the lay was possible, bringing £30 profit on the trade after Marseilles went ahead.
Alas, with regard to the under's market, I was somewhat caught out on the award of a ridiculous PSG penalty and though I traded out partially after the goal, there was insufficient time before the Marseilles equalizer to avoid a £50 loss. I traded on the Marseilles win but also traded out substantially again in the second half when Marseilles started to make heavy weather of what should have been a comfortable win. (I lost count of the number of corner kicks that Marseilles conceded!). So this left only £10 profit and an overall loss of £10.
Trade profit: -£20
In-play profit: £10
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Inplay Profit = -£20 Match Profit = £10
Total = -£10
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| Date: 19/02/08 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Roma V Real Madrid - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Real Madrid, Champions League, February 19th 2008 Going back 3 seasons, only 2 out of the last 48 Champions League first knockout round matches have finished goalless. Of course this could be random variation. But both Real Madrid and Roma possess plenty of firepower and this leads one to suspect that there will be at least one goal here. Real are certainly well capable of the away goal. Also in 5 of their group stage matches, there were 22 goals, 13 for Real and 9 for the opposition. (the one exception was a goalless draw at home to Olympiacos) Despite this, I will not be backing overs unless it looks particularly open. The better option is to lay the draw and depending upon the time of the goal there should be a good opportunity to trade out either with a small or large profit. If I had to predict the winner, then I would clearly opt for Real, particularly as they have won the last 3 in the eternal city. But these cup matches can be unpredictable; if Real look strong I may consider laying Roma, but the official recommendation will remain the lay of the draw. If you really want to cover all options then back 0-0 with a small trade to cover your liability.
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Trading Result:
An excellent, entertaining match also yielded the small profit – had the first goal been a bit later I would have been for a larger amount, but was still able to lay the draw and trade out for £21 profit. as you will have read in previous reports I have been caught out too often previously by the early goal and was determined to avoid a repeat. Therefore I traded early on the overs – the open play in any case justified it- and this brought a further £17 profit (Following the trade outs at 1-0 and 1-1). The only surprise was that Roma finished on top, because they looked liked conceding several when they went 1-0 down, but in the end they probably just about justified the win due to the spirit of their fight back. Perhaps not as large a profit as I would have hoped for, but the early goals do tend to make things harder.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £38
Total = £38
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| Date: 24/02/08 |
| Time: 14.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: St Mirren V Celtic - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
I expect a Celtic win here, though you will need to adopt a wait-and-see strategy before trading. This is because Celtic may be tired from their mid-week exertions. The corresponding fixture last September was an easy 5-1 win for Celtic. Their record at home to the Old Firm since returning to the Premier league is not encouraging with 3 defeats out of 3, though they did get a shock 1-1 draw at Parkhead. Though Saints are capable of raising their game at home, they could just as easy put in one of their shocking performances: for instance, they have shipped 10 goals to mighty Falkirk in their last 2 meetings. So all in all I will look to back Celtic in this, but if Celtic look jaded consider waiting for odds better than 1.5 before backing them. If St Mirren score first back them again and trade out after the equalizer. Finally, if St Mirren decide it is time to put in one of their better performances, consider the overs instead, but only if the game is end to end.
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Trading Result:
If there is one thing that is predictable about Celtic, it is that they will score in the last 5 minutes, usually from a Nakamura free kick (for Nakamura read Larsson a few seasons back). This is especially true when Celtic are playing badly. Celtic’s performance was so uninspiring that I soon abandoned the plan of backing them in the first half, at least substantially. Certainly Celtic did most of the pressing yet the Saints defence looked comfortable for the most part. But nor did the Saints look like scoring so I backed unders (unfortunately not early enough to bring substantial profit – though this did yield £10.) There was only one slightly uneasy moment when Saints almost scored from a break away in the first half (as I had a £60 liability on Saints at the time!). I adopted a plan of backing the draw and trading out in stages, especially towards the end. I was looking out for the late goal – the only regret was that I did not make a more substantial trade but I did trade out at 1.3 for £30 profit.
Another trade on the half-time market brought my total profit for the match to £51. All in all a fairly uninspiring match but a satisfactory trade. I have counted only £5 of my total profit as the official trade -though it is hard to calculate exactly as my actual trade also involved the draw.
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Inplay Profit = £5 Match Profit = £46
Total = £51
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| Date: 27/02/08 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Inter Milan V Roma - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Inter will be looking to move further clear of Roma in the race for the Scudetto. Despite an away draw at Sampdoria last Sunday, they are already 9 points clear; in the meantime Roma were fortunate to grab a win at home to Fiorentina. However Roma have an excellent record at the San Siro, winning on the last 2 occasions. It is therefore really hard to predict the winner in this match, but I am confident that there will be goals, particularly if Inter have their main strikers Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Julio Cruz back from injury. I recommend laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If it is tight at the start, you could wait for the odds to drift to lower than 3, perhaps staggering your bet and laying again at, or just after, half-time.
I expect a really open match as Roma cannot afford to hold out for the draw, but if it is tight you could also consider covering any loss by backing 0-0 for a small amount. A worse case scenario is that Roma score first – but then you should be able to trade out for no loss. Finally, if it is open and Inter’s main strikers are back, consider a side-trade on overs. There have been at least 2 goals in 5 out of the last 6 Serie A meetings.
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Trading Result:
The match went roughly as expected in the first half. It was no surprise when Roma took the lead. I got on lay gradually, at 2.8 average odds. However it was only a small amount so though I successfully traded out at 3.1 after the Roma goal, it only brought a paltry £4 profit. In the second half I was sufficiently impressed by Roma to lay Inter and after they went down to 10 men (through injuries) I was convinced that the man advantage would give Roam the win. Indeed, there were several occasions when they should have made it 2-0. At this stage I was sitting on what looked like a fairly safe £65 profit. Alas, Roma decided to shoot themselves in the foot when Mexes was sent off for second yellow card . Needless to say it was then an entirely different game and I therefore traded out of Roma, leaving a small further profit on the draw (£6). This was fully justified when, again unsurprisingly, Inter equalized. A little disappointing not to have a larger profit on this, but most of you should have been able to at least break even on this match (the bolder will have made a larger profit).
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Inplay Profit = £4 Match Profit = £6
Total = £10
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| Date: 04/03/08 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Chanpions League |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Lyon - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Manchester United have recently hit impressive form and will be full of confidence going into this vital 2nd leg. Tevez’s strike near the end in France definitely tipped the tie in the home side’s favour and, aside from Giggs, they have no real injury concerns going into this match. Alex Ferguson sees winning the competition again as his mission, and I would certainly not be surprised to see a home victory. But Lyon are a team worthy of respect, and have also recovered from poor performances towards the end of last year. Benzema and Govou are both capable of getting the away goal. For this reason I will be opting for the safer lay of the draw, which as usual should allow you to trade out for no loss if Lyon score first. I am also expecting a reasonably open match. A 1-1 score line in the knock-out phase of this competition usually presages goals in the 2nd leg – in 13 such games since 1993, the average goals per game has been well over 3. This is to be expected as the away team need at some point to go for the goal. And both teams have plenty of goals scores, so as a small side bet I will be trading on the overs, trading out after a goal. If it is tight at the start stagger your trade or wait for odds to improve.
Ammendment - the draw odds are much higher than expected - David will be waiting for the odds to drop (maybe by half-time) before laying the draw. He will still be looking seriously at the overs market!
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Trading Result:
Due to the high odds on the draw I decided against trading on the draw, preferring to wait to see if the odds dropped sufficiently prior to the first goal. With regard to the overs, although Manchester United were dominant, Lyons had decided to play it tight so I decided to trade on the unders instead – this is of course the beauty of in-play trading, you can switch according to evidence of your own eyes. I had traded out sufficiently by the time of the goal to have only a minor liability on overs. I repeated this with a smaller amount, trading out towards the end in case of late goals leaving a profit of £30. (In fact, when I had traded out sufficiently to ensure no loss I was able to switch to viewing to the Sevilla match which was far more exciting! However, had you decided to trade on the draw as suggested, you would also have profited as after the Manchester United goal the odds changes from over 4 to over 8 (extraordinarily high given Lyon’s strikers – indeed they hit the post and so almost pulled of the 1-1. But as I said, it is better to avoid laying when the odds are so high. So at least a profit with minimum risk! I have counted this as in-play profit since the trade suggested was the opposite.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £30
Total = £30
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| Date: 08/03/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: FA Cup |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Portsmouth - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
I will be looking to lay the draw if the opportunity presents itself for better odds than 3.0 around half-time. (it may, of course, be too late by then - but hopefully at least one of these matches will present an opportunity. Again, there is a fairly low probably of 0-0 and the chances are the home team will score first. If not, as with the Liverpool game played later today, you should be able to trade out with no loss.
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Trading Result:
This match turned into an even better trading opportunity than I was expecting. In the first half it did not look like a goal would come for some time, despite Manchester United dominance. This enabled me to trade on unders and then trade out again as the odds dropped – with the intention of using this as a cover for my main trade on lay of overs. This worked a treat with only one dicey moment when United should really have taken the lead but for a goal line clearance from Johnstone. However, 5 minutes into the second half the odds on the draw were stubbornly hovering around 3.75.
I felt this was far too high, especially with Portsmouth making a fair showing at the start of the half – So I backed the draw with £20 and was able to start trading out 5 minutes later at 3.15 with total average odds of 2.8.
By 67 minutes I was in the happy position of no loss on overs and £120 profit on unders, with £20 profit on the draw and zero loss elsewhere. Given this situation, I decided I could afford to ‘risk’ waiting further to trade out further on the unders – even though I must say around 70 minutes a goal from United looked inevitable. In fact, by 75 minutes the world ‘miracle’ often came to mind that United had not scored. I will resist the cliché ‘name on the cup’. Yet, there was smoothing about Portsmouth’s dogged performance that made me feel it was worth waiting for a late goal (or no goal at all) . When Portsmouth nipped upfield for a breakaway penalty and goalkeeper sending off the clichés were indeed flying! Those who waited as advised for the odds to drop would have found an easy opportunity to trade out for profit after this. (Draw odds of around 4). A further quick lay and trade out on Manchester United netted a further £15 (I was hoping for an equaliser by the end as this would have given another £20 profit).
So a nice profit of £135 – as usual counted ‘in-play’ profit due to the change of strategy as the match unfolded.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £135
Total = £135
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| Date: 08/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool V Newcastle - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Liverpool seem to have finally hit some consistent form in the Premiership. Newcastle have been, well, to be polite, poor. I am not going to win any prizes for originality when I say that Liverpool should win this. This season I have been reluctant to recommend Liverpool in the Premiership. But given their recent improvement and Newcastle’s lack of confidence, it would be surprising if Liverpool do not finish on top. Yet it is probably still worth being a little cautious before lumping on Liverpool. I will wait and see how they start. Once the odds to drift to better than 1.5 I will consider backing Liverpool (if they look like they are still playing as well as last time out against West Ham). Otherwise I will leave alone and instead consider laying the draw once the odds are better than 3.0 – it will probably take at least until half-time for this to happen, but if they are still level then I think it would present a good opportunity. It is probably a big ‘if’ but then you can at least look elsewhere. The probability is high of at least one goal. Newcastle usually concede on the road (the 1-0 defeat of Fulham being the only exception). Following the above strategy will, I believe, ensure at worst zero loss, as long as you remember to leave well alone if Liverpool look like they are reverting to their former ways.
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Trading Result:
Those of you followed my advice to back Liverpool at better than 1.5 will have made a nice profit, because Liverpool’s first came just after the odds went over this. Alas problems with my video link meant I could not see the match and I prefer not to trade on matches that I cannot see. But well done to those who profited! Although I did not see the game, I assume from the scroreline that it was the recent version of Liverpool who turned up.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £0
Total = £0
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| Date: 15/03/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool V Reading - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
There have been 21 goals in the last 5 Premiership meetings between these two, including a 4-3 at Anfield in October 2006. Liverpool are definitely on an upward spiral. As long as Torres is playing, I think it is fairly safe to say that this will have at least a couple of goals, though more likely from Liverpool, as Reading have only scored once in their last 7 outings. Furthermore, Liverpool won all 5 of their last meetings. This makes backing Liverpool tempting, until you remember that, without even checking, I can tell you the odds will not be favourable, so I think this is only an option if Liverpool are still level going into the second half. Therefore, I will recommend a steady, cautious, back of overs, trading out for no loss on unders if it still goalless at half-time. The Liverpool back will be a side bet.
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Trading Result:
In some ways, this went exactly as predicted, but the early goal from Reading was certainly the only surprise. Those who got in early on the overs will have done very well, but alas the goal came just a bit too early for me. A modest backing of Liverpool brought £8 profit. Not such a big sum as last time, but a win is a win!
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £8
Total = £8
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| Date: 23/03/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Ligue 1 |
| Teams: Lyon V PSG - SCORE: 4 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
This looks like a certain home win – but of course there is no such thing in football. PSG are struggling near the foot of the table while Lyon, 6 points clear in le championnat, are marching inexorably towards a league and cup double. There is a strong rivalry between the clubs so Lyon will certainly not be complacent (the only danger of teams that have such a clear lead at the top). One cautionary fact is that PSG’s away record has been better than their home record! I will therefore suggest a more cautious lay of the draw once the odds drift below 3.6 – you can make a small trade on overs if a quick goal looks likely then trade out once you have made the lay bet. As usual, if PSG do score first, it should be possible to trade out for little or no loss – but I will consider backing Lyon if this happens. Indeed, if Lyon are dominating near the start consider backing them –at odds of better than 1.6 (easily possible baring the early goal) If you need further convincing, Lyon’s home record reads: W12 D2 L1, they have scored an average of 3 goals a game and have won their last 5 league matches. To summarize, main recommendation is lay of draw with backing Lyon as a possible side trade.
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Trading Result:
Great game which went as anticipated at the start. Lyon were all over PSG at the start and it was really no surprise when they took the lead after only 8 minutes. Those who took my advice to back overs in this case will have done nicely. I actually traded on Lyon instead as I felt a goal was inevitable.
My only regret was that I also decided to stagger my stake – so the profit on this was just £15. It looked at one stage that a rout was on the cards, especially when Fred grabbed his second. However, Lyon then became complacent and PSG fought back to 2-2. It took the second goal to finally wake up Lyon and at this stage I decided to lay PSG. A further small back of Lyon brought total profit to £40. Again, I have counted this as in-play profit.
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £40
Total = £40
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| Date: 29/03/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Rangers V Celtic - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
I originally wrote the preview for this match shortly before it was postponed. However, looking at what I wrote then, I do not see the need to change much.
It is always hard to predict the outcome of an Old Firm game. While recent form indicates a home win, it is better to be cautious. Yet there has been a pattern to these matches in recent times: The openings tend to be tight, cagey affairs. As I wrote back in January:“Recent history suggests that there will not be many goals in this. Apart from the most recent (3-0 to Rangers), the five previous league games all had less than 3 goals. What is also interesting is that not only have there been few goals recently [aside from the last one] it has taken at least 20 minutes for the first goal. Indeed none of the last 6…..had a goal before the first 28 minutes (Of the last 13, only 3 had a goal by 20 minutes).”A defeat for Celtic now would be far more damaging to their title hopes, but they will be going for a win. Therefore it may well open out in the latter stages; I do not expect 0-0. Putting all this together, back under 2.5 early in the game and trade out after around 15-30 minutes. The time to trade out will depend upon how open the game becomes. If it still level around 60 minutes a lay of the draw may well also be a good side bet. Be prepared to change position quickly if the game develops in a different way- you may even find shifting to backing over 2.5 is worthwhile later on if the game becomes stretched. People joining the chat room will therefore benefit from advice in-play. Well, I did say the Old Firm games are unpredictable!
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Trading Result:
The game went exactly to plan. As predicted few goals and the one that did come was late on in the second half, Although Celtic dominated the first half in terms of possession they never looked too dangerous so it was not a complete surprise when Rangers took the lead. The timing allowed me to back under's once more, having already largely traded out of my original stake. I got on originally at 1.75 and traded out for average odds of 1.42. Even better, second time round the odds dropped quickly so I was able to trade in at 1.65 and trade out for average odds of around 1.33. This brought total profit on the trade to £162. A much smaller trade on Rangers in-play brought the total profit to a handy £170.
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Inplay Profit = £8 Match Profit = £162
Total = £170
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| Date: 06/04/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Middlesbrough V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
Manchester United have arguably hit their best form since winning the Champions League nine years ago. So they are rightly strong favorites to win this game. Yet Middlesbrough have a habit of putting in strong performances when least expected. They were unlucky not to come away from Stamford Bridge with at least a point and they did bag a draw away to Arsenal. The recent history of games between these two reads three wins to Man. United and three draws, and indeed the most likely outcome here is either an away win or a score draw. Therefore the safest option is lay the draw, trading out after hopefully a goal for United. You are best advised to wait for the draw odds to drop below 3.8 before jumping in, however. If it looks like Manchester United are dominating, backing them will be a good side trade. The biggest danger here is of United scoring before the odds drop sufficiently. If this looks likely, a small trade on overs or Manchester United could be made. This will need to be judged in-play.
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Trading Result:
This proved a tricky game thanks to Boro’s habit of playing out of their skin against the top 4. United started strongly and scored early on. The goal was so early that I only had time to put a small amount on them. At this stage it looked like United were on course for an easy win but I did warn you before the match that Boro can turn it on when least expected, Alas the Boro goal came out of the blue and so was on £100 deficit when Boro took the lead. Worse, at 1-1 I was just about to lay the draw when Boro scored again (we decided that the best course of action was to wait for the draw odds to less than 3 but they just had just hit that when Boro scored!).
I managed to reduce the loss on the draw further by trading in and out of Boro (at 2-1) and further back and lay of the draw (at 2-2) reduced the loss to £80. A side trade of laying 2-1 also delivered £40 bringing the overall loss down to £40. Slightly unfortunate start to the trading room but it can happen, and although the game did not go according to plan, (and United’s worse performance in some time, in fact at one time they were really struggling for the point) you would at least have been able to reduce your losses by sensible in-play trading. We look forward to a more positive result next time in the chat room!
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £0
Total = - £40
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| Date: 08/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Liverpool V Arsenal - SCORE: 4 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
As I mentioned last February prior to the Real Madrid - Roma clash, only 2 of the last 48 Champions League knockout matches have finished goalless.
That figure now reads: 2 out of the last 60. So while I am not expecting a goal fest, there is a high probability of at least one goal here. So who will win? Well, I really think the winner is impossible to predict so will be leaving this market alone. (I have sneaking suspicion that Arsenal may come good, but it would be foolish to back against Liverpool's impressive record in the Champion's League). It could well be another tight opening, however and I would not be surprised if we had to wait some time before the first goal. The main recommendation is to lay the draw. As the odds are already favorable (around 3.2 on last check) there will be no real advantage in waiting for the odds to drift this time. If a goal comes early, you should still be able to make a profit (though it might be a smaller one) Those who wish to cover the 0-0 could do so, but honestly I cannot see this finishing goalless. If it looks tight then a cautious trade on under's might be considered, but be careful with this as it is easy to get caught out by the unexpected goal (and in any case you should certainly trade out of it by no later than 20-25 minutes). This will be a judgment made in-play.
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Trading Result:
What a game this was – and the plan to lay the draw immediately paid off when Arsenal took the lead early on. A later goal would have increased profit but having laid at 3.2 before the match it was possible to get out at 4.0 after the goal, leaving a profit of £40 (and of £20 had the game finished level). A further small trade on half-time market brought total profit to £42 and a further trade on the overs/under 2.5 brought £5. Back to form! And more pleasing result for the second trading room event.
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Inplay Profit = £7 Match Profit = £40
Total = £47
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| Date: 13/04/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: Juventus v AC Milan - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
3rd plays 5th in Serie A. AC Milan have a couple of their key defenders out through suspension (Nesta, if he loses his appeal, and Kaladze). Juventus had a very impressive away win to Inter Milan but their recent home form has been far from convincing, while Milan’s away form is also patchy. I think you can probably see the way this is going. Although this may be a tight game, there have been few goalless games in matches involving Juventus at home to other top 5 teams (2 in 27). And with players of the calibre of Kaka, we should get some goals. So the safest option here is to lay the draw. The current odds mean that, like the last trading-room game, it is probably not worth waiting too long before getting involved. We were successful last time out and I think our in-play joiners will have a good chance of profiting once more. Both teams are good to watch so it should be an entertaining game.
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Trading Result:
My final sentence in the preview could not have been more prophetic. It was an absolutely stupendous game with goalmouth incidents galore. Though a few of you who joined the chat room were concerned that you had missed the boat for trading out due to the speed of the equalizer, coming 2 minutes after Milan’s opener, I was not too concerned as the first-half was incredibly open and peppered with defensive errors. So 2-2 at half-time was a fair refection of the play. By this time I had been able to lay and trade out twice, bringing profit to £44. I also advised people to wait until the draw odds dropped until 2.0 before laying again as the second half became somewhat tighter; but another goal always looked likely. This brought total profit to £64. A further small profit on the half-time market was cancelled out by a £5 cover bet on 0-0 made before the start. Another good result of the trading room!
I would just like to say well done to Ted who took my advice to lay the draw again at odds of 2.0 for £81 profit. Using different stakes he actually made £177 from my inplay support on this match, which was the 1st time he had every traded!
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Inplay Profit = £20 Match Profit = £44
Total = £64
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| Date: 16/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams:Celtic V Rangers - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
The Old Firm do battle once more and it is clear that Celtic need a win to keep their championship hopes alive. Once again, I do not see any reason to change the preview from last time. We will be trading on the under's at the start, and be prepared to come out by 25 minutes or even sooner should things open out. We also lay the draw, trading out after a goal. In the case of two quick goals making it level again (not a totally unthinkable scenario) we will consider trading again on the under's. Each time we will trade out as usual on the draw after a goal. As mentioned before, there is a very good chance of at least one goal here, but it usually takes a little time.
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Trading Result:
We came very close to securing an even larger profit, but alas the goal came seconds before I had planned to trade out – a long range effort (Very lucky, but that last comment is tongue in cheek). However, by trading again on under's and then trading out at around 2.0 I was able to ensure no loss on overs for myself and the room joiners. At 1-1 this was turned into a small profit for all (£10 in my case), by backing and laying again quickly as the odds dropped. Now, at 1-1 it looked inevitable that a goal would be scored, yet I also had a feeling that Rangers could hold out with 10 so the in room joiners were told to lay the draw in a cautious way, retaining an overall profit. I must admit that this looked to be correct with only 2 minutes left and the scores still tied. But the main thing is that a profit was secured for all! We move on to the next one.
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Inplay Profit = £10 Match Profit = £0
Total = £10
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| Date: 19/04/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams:Roma V Livorno - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
A Roma win will see them cut the gap to Inter at the top to just one point, at least temporarily. With only 5 games left, anything else would probably deal a fatal blow to their Scudetto aspirations. Roma’s home form remains superb, with 13 wins in a row. I do not think that the recent speculation over buyers for the club will affect the players. By contrast, they are up against a team who sit bottom of the league, having only picked up 3 points in the last 7, scoring just 3 goals. They have also lost their last 5 on the road without scoring a single goal. Yet they are still only 3 points from safety so will also be motivated to get a good result. This might actually help Roma as Livorno cannot really afford to settle for just one point which could allow for a more open game.
We will therefore back Roma, staggering our stake to chase average odds of 1.3 or better and then trading out after a goal, hopefully from Roma.
Should Livorno score first - though not likely- we will consider backing Roma again if they are playing well.
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Trading Result:
Roma probably blew their faint Scudetto hopes here. They totally dominated until well after their somewhat unimaginative attacking moves deservedly brought the lead. Until then, Livorno had shown little or no attacking ambition. So this, accompanied with the lack of the imagination from Roma and the injury to Totti encouraged me to tell our trading room traders to wait for better value before backing Roma (and the 0-0 was also covered with £19 as I have seen many games of this type end in stalemate). This allowed me to get on at average odds of 1.35 – though we had to wait until the end of the first half for the odds to rise sufficiently. This approach seemed to have been justified when Roma took the lead after 54 minutes. After the Roma goal we advised a trade out at average odds of 1.1, which was also fully justified when Livorno equalised. This left just £10 profit, and a further trade and trade out on the draw (still available at 1.4 with just minutes left!) increased this to £15. So altogether just £5 here, but the cautious approach helped us avoid a potential large loss and after we traded out our attentions largely turned to the exciting events at Ewood Park!
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Inplay Profit = £5 Match Profit = £0
Total = £5
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| Date: 22/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Liverpool V Chelsea - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
This is the first time we have been able to base a Champions League trading decision on so much evidence of recent meetings between the same 2 teams in the competition. In six previous meetings in the Champions League only 3 goals have been scored. Of course Liverpool came out on top in the last 2 semi-finals with narrow 1-0 wins. Similarly the last 6 in all competitions all had less than 3 goals. The win-draw-record is similarly tight, reading 2-2-2. None of these were away wins. I can see no reason why this will not be similarly tight. So we will trade on under 2.5 trading out as soon as things open out. We will also lay the draw and trade out after a goal, but will cover 0-0 with a small trade trading out later if still available.
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Trading Result:
A game that went precisely as expected. Of course football being football there had to be at least one expected incident which came with the superbly taken own goal in the 94th minute (With due commiserations to any Reds fans, I know how you feel following the recent Old Firm derby). Up to that point Chelsea really did not look like scoring, but the unders market went exactly to form and by the time of the goal the chat room participants had been advised to trade out fully. And of course we were able to go on unders again particularly as the goal came so close to half-time, trading out again during the early stages of the 2nd half. This left a total profit of £60 on this market. , With regard to laying the draw, as usual we traded out again following the Livepool goal leaving no loss on the draw. So a total profit of £60 (would have been £100 without the Risse magic).
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Inplay Profit = £60 Match Profit = £0
Total = £60
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| Date: 22/04/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Celtic V Rangers - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
David's Recommendation:
Last time around we came very close to making a good profit on this game, which was secured (£170) the first time the Old Firm derby was chosen.
Just to remind you, it was pointed out that the recent pattern in this game is for goals to take a little time to come. In fact usually 20 minutes. And guess when Nakamura scored last time? Another couple of minutes and we would have traded out completely (hence the reduced profit) In fact for 6 matches it has taken 28 minutes at least (and the Rangers goal at Ibrox was after 45 ( So we will once more trade early on under 2.5 and trade out again as required, this time hoping for a quieter opening, but not hanging around too long to find out.
So what has changed since the last Old Firm derby? Certainly Celtic are stronger favourites to win, especially now that Rangers fixture pile up is beginning to take hold. Yet in a way this will suit the Gers. As ever, we are therefore not going try to predict the winner, but once more we can be fairly sure of goals – how many is anyone’s guess, anything from 1-5 is a reasonable guess. But this also makes laying the draw another good prospect for profit. So this will be the main play here, with the unders market as a side bet.
So, to summarise, we will lay the draw at odds of 3.2 or better (possibly staggering our stake to achieve average odds of less than 3), trading out after a goal and make an early start on under 2.5 but trade out quickly if it is open. Those who are concerned about 0-0 can put a small amount on this, but unlike last Thursday’s UEFA cup tie, this is a score that I cannot imagine.
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Trading Result:
We got caught out by 2 early goals on the unders and were not able to trade out in time – alas this left a loss of £120, but we fared better on the lay draw market, which we are able to get into twice, at 1-1 and 2-2 (the latter giving the best profit). Alas, still an overall loss of £55 to report, but overall the results for the season have been good; I was even more unhappy by the thought the Rangers may struggle now given their mounting injuries, suspensions and fixtures. Still there is always the Scottish Cup against the mighty Queen of the South (and the dream of the quadruple is not entirely dead, but it will be a lot harder). We move on for more profits next time!
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £0
Total = - £55
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| Date: 29/04/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Manchester Utd V Barcelona - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
Barcelona need a goal here and you do not need me to tell you about the fire power on both sides, but I am going to anyway: Ronaldo, Messi, Eto’o and Henry – OK, the latter has not done it this season, but you never write him off either. It does make you wonder why there were no goals in the first leg, but then United were content to soak up the pressure. There has never been a 0-0 aggregate score line in Champions League history at the knock-out stage. If United play like they did against Chelsea they could be in trouble, but I do not expect this. I have been as impressed with United this season in equal measure to my amazement at the depth of Barcelona’s mediocrity. Yet Barcelona are not a team to write off easily and for that reason the safest option is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. Of course we need a goal to ensure the trade out, but you need not worry about this as I feel it will be an open game. As a side bet we will consider over 2.5 if it looks open enough.
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Trading Result:
Ironically United started poorly and as we could not see a goal coming we missed out on the lay draw when Scholes superb strike gave United the lead against the run of play. After that United really turned on the style so we decided to back United on the half-time market, trading out gradually as Barcelona came more into it toward the end of the half. This brought £21 profit. Given the way the game developed the chat room participants were advised to leave over 2.5 alone. A further smaller trade on United brought £19 and the 1-0 score line was also backed with a very small amount with intention of trading out to give a profit on any other score. But as it did not look like a goal was coming I advised against laying the 1-0 score line, bringing total profit to £49. So back to profit again, feels nice after the last one, but it would have been higher had United not lulled us into thinking they were not going to score.
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Inplay Profit = £49 Match Profit = £0
Total = £49
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| Date:04/05/08 |
| Time: 14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Hibernian v Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
David's Recommendation:
This will be a fascinating match. Hibs traditionally have given Rangers a tough match here; the recent record at Easter Road reads 2-1-3 in favour of Rangers. What is perhaps more interesting is that there have only been 2 draws in the last 14, the last coming in a thrilling 3-3 last year. So the lay of a draw is a sensible option, particularly since there are likely to be goals in this. It is too risky to back Rangers in light of Hibs traditional strength at home, and their recent home form is also strong with 3 wins out of the last 3, but this decision may be revised in-play. The big question will be how tired Rangers are after their recent exertions inthe UEFA Cup and also how many of the walking wounded are available. Itis worth pointing out that Hibs will also be without some of their players:Guillame Beuzelin, Colin Nish and Thierry Gatheussi (Suspended); Chris Hogg and Merouane Zemmama (injury). Zemmana in particular will be missed as he tends to be their play maker in midfielder. This could be an excellent end to end game, with the possibility of goals and an outcome that is hard to predict. But this makes the laying the draw and trading out after a goal the best option. We may even find the possibility to lay the draw twice if there are early goals here. A goal for Hibs should at least allow us to trade out again for no loss. The draw odds of 3.6 mean that we will probably opt to get on gradually unless a goal looks imminent. The over 2.5 goals market will also be considered as a side trade, especially since the average goals per game at Easter Road has been over 3.
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Trading Result:
This was probably the poorest game I have seen between these two teams for some time. A dull first half was not only marginally more open in the second half. Consequently although we traded in for a small amount on over 2.5 the chat room participants were shortly afterwards advised to trade out again for no loss on unders. However, the lack of clear cut chances gave us an opportunity to trade on the draw at half-time, getting in at 1.49 with £96 and trading out most of this at 1.28 for £19 profit. Similar trading and lay on the draw for the full-time market brought a further £15 profit.
Shame about the result though, but still the quadruple dreams are alive.
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Inplay Profit = £34 Match Profit = £0
Total = £34
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| Date:04/05/08 |
| Time: 14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: AC Milan V Inter Milan - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
This will be another exciting Milan derby game - Milan have had a poor season but will be determined to put one over their city rivals, whereas Inter could clinch the title if results go their way. So plenty for both to play for. The Milan derby seldom lack goals, (13 in the last 3) and with reasonable odds on the draw lay, this is the recommendation here. You could cover the 0-0 score line with a small amount if concerned.
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Trading Result:
As with the Hibs game, chances were few and far between in the first half though a goal always looked more likely, We got in on the overs 2.5 but again only for a small amount and I decided to trade out mainly on this to leave small loss only. But this was more than compensated by our lay of the draw which came home nincely. But given Milan’s dominance I decided to lay Inter further, which also paid off as Milan made it 2-0. A further slightly riskier lay of Inter (risky due to liability) was balanced by a small amount on the draw – which was just as well as Inter came back into the game. But Milan held out well to ensure a total profit of £34. with the small loses on the overs and a £5 cautionary on 0-0 total profit here was £27
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Inplay Profit = £0 Match Profit = £27
Total = £27
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| Date:10/05/08 |
| Time: 14.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Bundesliga |
| Teams: W Bremen v Hannover - SCORE: 6 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
Both teams still to have much to play for especially Bremen who are trying to ensure their Champions League spot. The most obvious trend here is for there to be goals. Bremen have the best home scoring record in the Bundesliga with 42 in 18, an average of well over 2 per game. Hannover’s away scoring record is about what you would expect for a team in 8th position, (21 in 16), but they have been in good form lately, (no losses in the last 5) and have scored 13 goals in their last 6. We will therefore back over 2.5 goals, staggering our stake for better odds, unless it looks like opening up early on. For security you can consider backing 0-0.
Another reason I like this for over 2.5 is that there have been 21 goals in the last 4 corresponding fixtures, including a 4-3 at Hannover earlier in the season.
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Trading Result:
The
odds on over's
were a miserly 1.4 and 15 minutes in they were still less than 1.5. At these odds I decided it was better to risk missing the first goal and waiting for a drift upwards, Sure enough the first goal came before we could get on, so I am afraid we missed out (But trades elsewhere compensated!). As Hannover obviously had decided they would rather be on the beach, we backed Bremen
with the score at 1-0, which yielded the £8 profit. Well done to those who decided to ignore the odds as you will have profited nicely, but over the course of a season it is best to chase value.
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Inplay Profit = £8 Match Profit = £0
Total = £8
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| Date:07/05/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Switzerland v Czech Republic - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
The Czech Republic are arguably the ultimate dark horses in this year's competition. The unpredictability of their performances during the qualifying campaign only served to add to the mystery. A poor 2-1 home defeat at home to Germany was more than adequately compensated by a sparkling 3-0 win later on in Munich. There is certainly plenty of quality in the team, but no outstanding performer. To some extent the same can be said about Switzerland, but it is even harder to guess how they will perform. Normally one could point to home advantage, but will the Swiss crowd be up for the challenge of inspiring their team to qualification from the group? What stands out for me here is the defensive qualities of both teams, so I do not expect a goal fest here. Czech Republic also possess in my opinion the best goalkeeper in the tournament in Petr Cech. If we get 3 goals or more we can consider ourselves lucky. So will trade on under 2.5, backing out as the game progresses (possibly after 15 minutes depending on how things go) The other strategy will be to lay the draw and cover with a small trade on 0-0. If a goal comes too soon we might find that our profit is small, so ideal would be a goal in the second half for either team.
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Trading Result:
The opening game went almost exactly to plan. In fact, the first-half was so devoid of serious goalmouth incident that I was able to advise the in-play participants to wait a little more before trading out of under 2.5.
The opposite was true of the match market. We did start to trade on the lay draw, but as the first half trundled on with defences on top, and since we had already tied in a nice profit on the under 2.5 I decided that we should reduce our liability on the lay draw. This tied in our profit nicely: Due to the tight defences I was able to trade quite aggressively on under 2.5, backing unders at average odds of 1.37 (Since we went in again after the goal) and trading out at average odds of 1.19 for £99 overall profit. A small loss (on the match odds trade out) of £3 was balanced with a similar small win on correct score to leave a nice overall profit to start our Euro 2008 in-play trading!
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Profit made on this trade = £99
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| Date: 08/06/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Austria V Croatia - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
David's Recommendation:
If logic plays any part in football then we could sit back and expect a comfortable win from Croatia. The Swiss were meant to be the stronger of the 2 hosts and yet still lost their opening match though perhaps slightly unluckily. As has now been well documented, some Austrian ‘fans’ were so confident in their team that they established a website to lobby for their withdrawal from the tournament. Croatia are 15th in the FIFA rankings, while Austria are 92nd Yet I would prefer to see how play develops as sometimes teams with nothing to lose and whole host of people to prove wrong can play out of their skins. Furthermore Croatia are of course missing their talisman Eduardo (yes, the one who had the horrific leg break earlier in the season) and even though Croatia has other highly capable strikers, Eduardo got 10 during the qualifiers. For all these reasons we will, at least to begin with, go with the safer option of laying the draw. If Austria look like performing as badly as most people expect, we will consider laying them. Otherwise we will wait and see. A small trade on over 2.5 once the odds have drifted upwards might be considered later on if it is open.
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Davids Trading Result:
I had wanted to wait a few minutes to assess how play was developing so the penalty after 4 minutes came too soon to allow a lay of the draw, though some of the in-play participants did get on before the match started.
Ironically, the subsequent play from late in the first half through to the end justified the decision to be cautious about backing Croatia – even if it would have brought a profit. But in the first 30 minutes Austria were as dire as everyone expected, and this allowed me to trade on Croatia at 1.17 average odds for the half-time win, backing out as Austria came into it at average 1.09 for a £9 profit. But Austria were mot much worse than Croatia for long spells after this period, and the longs spells of inactivity in the second half, with Austria probing but getting nowhere, allowed a trade on unders at 1.22 trading out again 1.15 for £36 profit. We were a bit unlucky with the early goal as there were no significant shots in the first 20 minutes, but those getting in early on the lay draw bet will have done well.
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Profit made on this trade = £45
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| Date: 09/06/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Holland V Italy - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Its been 20 year since Holland have won any silverware but it might be a good omen that their now Manager Marco Van Basten was a player in the Dutch side that won the silverware at Euro 88. Under Van Basten they have an excellent record, avoiding defeat in 89% of games and when scoring they have only lost 4% of these games. Not many of these matches were against top 10 teams like Italy, but they still have only lost one of these top ten encounters (Portugal 1-0). We are a little worried about the team they are likely to put out, with 5 of their best players injured the Azzurri will make things difficult for this inexperienced Dutch side.
World Champions Italy are the highest ranked side in the 'Group of Death' and favorites to win here. They have a superb record in group stage matches only losing once in the last 28 tournaments. Saying this we do have a concern about them in defence. Despite finishing top in their group for qualification they conceded more goals than any other team and have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last 5 games coming into this competition. Without these issues we would have considered backing them but we are expecting this game to end in a goal scoring draw.
We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake. The draw odds are short at 3.1 so you might want to reappraise your trade out odds from the usual 1.8 if no goal comes. We also like over 2.5 goals so will be looking to get in on this as a side trade inplay. Usual trade out if we don't see a 1st half goal.
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Davids Trading Result:
This game was all that I had hoped, especially after the dire effort served up earlier by France and Romania. As planned, we layed the draw, staggering our stake and had already placed more than half our intended stake prior to the first goal. We were all impressed by Netherlands from the outset, and I was able to lay Italy in a timely fashion (with the intention of trading out if Italy started to get in gear). But of course this was not necessary as Netherlands obliged with the 2-0. By this time I was already £77 in profit and further backing and laying of Holland increased this to £100. There was smaller trade on overs (originally we backed unders but the room participants were advised to back out quickly as the game was clearly so open – indeed I told them to back out just before Netherlands almost took the lead, when Van Nistelrooy decided to be honest by not falling down in the penalty box). So overall a very nice £97 profit as we also had a small £5 bet on 0–0.
The room participants once more benefited nicely.
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Profit made on this trade = £97
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| Date: 12/06/08 |
| Time: 17.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Croatia v Germany- SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Germany started their Euro 2008 campaign with a fairly impressive win, although they were helped by some unimpressive defending from Poland.
Croatia were poor against Austria and in the end they were somewhat fortunate to get the win. It seems that fears over the affects of missing Eduardo were confirmed. The head-to-head record is heavily in favour of Germany, but Croatia did famously knock them out of the 1998 World Cup and the current team, despite their poor start, should not be underestimated.
For this reason, though I feel Germany may win, we will do the more cautious lay of the draw, trading out after a goal from hopefully Germany. If Croatia score first we will trade out for no loss. I expect this will finish in a win for Germany or a score draw. I really do not think we need to worry about 0-0 here so it is not necessary to cover this.
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Davids Trading Result:
This was a slightly frustrating game from a trading viewpoint in that most time was spent on our participants how to avoid losing on this one rather than how to win, but as any trader will tell you, avoiding loses is just as important as winning! And in the end we all mostly came out with small profits. Firstly, if you had substituted the name "Germany" with "Croatia" it would have been perfect, since from the outset it was the Croatians who were playing all the cool and calculating football, while Germany looked like Croatia in the first match. It was therefore no surprise when Croatia took the lead - but the second reason for the frustration is that the odds were never very favourable, but fortunately the in-play traders were advised not to lump on everything at poor draw odds (at one time as high as 3.7!),
and this allowed a fairly easy trade out for no loss. Smaller trades (in and out) on the half-time market, and main market brought £15 and £18 respectively. A further small profit £2 on the overs (and a £5 loss on the cover - yes, I did say no need to cover this, but we were all surprised about how cagey the opening was) meant an overall profit of £30. Perhaps the most successful tonight was one of our participants, who decided not to trade out of the lay draw!
"Although the match did not go as expected, the highlight was perhaps when the in-players were advised to lay Germany - moments before Croatia made it 2-0"
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Profit made on this trade = £30
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| Date: 13/06/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Holland V France - SCORE:4 - 1 |
Preview:
A dutch victory here will send them through to the knockout stages and a french loss would put their backs against the wall and under serious pressure. If Holland's recent display of superb counter-attacking football is anything to go by France are going to have a few problems here! France's defensive set up was all wrong for the game against Romania but would probably be the best option against this Dutch side. This still leaves France's issue up front where they seem to be missing Vieira, hopefully Henry will be fit as they are likely to need him. Usually when 1st match winners meet in the 2nd group game the team that failed to win their 1st match tend to come off worse. Bizarrely when the two teams are highly ranked like these two this switches around with the losing team coming out winners 68% of the time. France have a strong record against top 10 teams in major comps. only losing once since the millennium (against Holland). On neutral ground they have been practically unbeatable especially in recent years. This is a seriously tough call and isn't likely to be a high scoring match if France are set up defensively. You only have to look at their recent match results to see this (only 5 goals scored in 6 games).
For us the only option is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. It shouldn't really matter who scores as the odds will drift in our favour.
Looking at when these two usually score goals we are expecting a 1st half goal so will consider backing over 2.5 goals inplay. The odds will drift a long way in the 1st half so please consider stagger your stake for better value. As usual trade out at HT by laying over with the same stake so the loss is sitting on over 2.5. Back in if 2 come early in the 2nd half and your concerned.
If your concerned backing the 0-0 correct score is there for some safety in play.
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Our Trading Result:
What a superb game. As I mentioned to in-play people at the start, I felt there would be goals here, so it was a pity that I decided to concentrate on the match trade, nevertheless this also proved profitable; we layed the draw at 3.15 (average odds) - and after Netherlands scored I felt there was not enough threat from France to justify a full trade out - so we traded out for half our potential loss at 4.1, this left a £40 profit on Netherlands. We did have to ride our luck a little at 1-0, but the second goal gave us confidence! I traded further on Netherlands, and despite the brief anxiety at 2-1, Robben's brilliant third for the Dutch justified our confidence and gave a total of £63 profit. It was a pity about the £30 on unders which I had forgotten to cancel (It happens sometimes when I am preoccupied with advising) and which was not taken, it seemed to me, until after Netherlands scored. Anyway, I decided just to leave it, so overall a £33 profit. Our participants were told to trade out of unders quickly as it was clear from the outset that it was an open game.
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Profit made on this trade = £33
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| Date: 15/06/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Czech Republic V Turkey - SCORE:2 - 3 |
Preview:
Turkey have only beaten Czech Republic once in 14 games. And the Czechs won all three of their most recent fixtures. But neither side have been totally convincing in their 2 previous outings and I expect whoever comes out of top to lose in the Quarter Final (Mostly likely against Croatia). Since it is ‘winner take all’, with the intriguing possibility of extra-time and a penalty shoot-out, it could well be a cagey opening. So a small trade on under 2.5 (for the first 15 minutes) will be considered. The main trade will be lay the draw and trade out after a goal. I also recommend a small cover trade on 0-0 to help our trade out possibilities if it turns into a stalemate.
I also like the Portugal v. Switzerland as stated on the main site, so we will keep one eye on this one with a view to following the recommended trade there. Unusually, we may even switch our focus if the Portugal game looks more promising.
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Trading Result:
To say this was an astonishing game is total understatement. The game looked done and dusted until Cech’s error brought Turkey back into it. We started well, trading out of unders for no loss before the first goal (which in view of subsequent events was just as well. After the first goal we traded out - but as Czech were at this stage dominant, we diced to risk a partial trade out. When Czech made it 2-0 that looked to be a correct decision, but the last 3 goals caught us out ( I am sure I am not the only one)! So I am afraid I have to report a £52 loss here.
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Profit made on this trade = - £52
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| Date: 18/06/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Russia V Sweden - SCORE:2 - 0 |
Preview:
Sweden and Russia go head-to-head to decide 2 nd place in Group D. Both teams needed to rely on insipid performances by Greece for their 3 points, but Sweden have definitely been the more consistent of the two. This means that Sweden can qualify with a draw, but they will not want to risk playing for one. Both teams have enough firepower, with Ibrahimovich and Larsson for Sweden and Russia with the likely return of their star striker Arshavin from suspension (even if just as a substitute). So overall, there is not much to chose between these two, making the outcome hard to predict, as also reflected in their rankings in their (Russia 24 th, Sweden 30 th). The overall h2h statistics do not help much either as they have not played competitively since the 3-1 World Cup win for Sweden 14 years ago. On form, I regard Sweden as the more likely, though the bookies have it the other way. But the recommended trade is to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. As usual, we will look to stagger our trade for better value. It could be a tight opening and we will also consider a side trade on unders if that is the case.
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Our Trading Result:
A low scoring win for either team was just what we anticipated, though Russia were far superior and easily merited their 2-0 win. We traded out of the unders mainly or completely by 25 minutes, before Russia took the lead. A further trade on unders took up the profit. Later on, at 2-0, this was adjusted further to leave a profit on overs which was probably just as well as only some sort of strange magnetic force in the Swedish goal prevented 3-0. So this yielded £2 profit. On the lay draw we traded as planned, as usual staggering our stake to leave £30 profit. As Russia dominated for spells I felt confident enough to back them again (This yielded total profit of £43. A further smaller trade on the half-time market brought a further £21. So back to winning ways here –and more importantly, more profit for our in-play participants!
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Profit made on this trade = £85
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| Date: 19/06/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 |
| Teams: Portugal V Germany - SCORE: 2 - 3 |
Preview:
Portugal have become a very impressive tournament side in recent years making it to the final 8 in the last 4 major competitions. Coming into this Quarter Final they have looked the more impressive of side. These two have met quite a few times in recent years with Germany avoiding defeat in 8 of the last 10. Its worth pointing out that Portugal only lost 1 of the last 4 which supports their improvement in form over the last few years. Against top 10 teams Portugal have the better record over the last decade, only losing 16% of games. Germany on the other hand have had a few issues with top 10 teams only picking up 1 win in the last 6. Saying this they do have a good record in the knock out stages, progressing in 69% of encounters which supports the well known phrase 'never write of the Germans'.
In general you would expect the higher ranked team to progress through to the next round here but statistically when both teams are ranked in the top 10, the lower ranked team has progressed on 60% of occasions. So this is rather conflicting which puts picking a winner off the cards. We do like the probability of Portugal scoring as they are averaging 2.75 goals a game over the last decade and have scored 1st in 75% of these games, this is supported by the fact that Germany have conceded 1st in 62% of simular encounters. We feel laying the draw and trading out after a goal is the only real option here. A side bet on over 2.5 goals might pay off so we will look at this in the 1st half. Usual trade out if no goal comes before HT.
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Our Trading Result:
Another cracking game and all the participants came out with a nice profit.
We went on the lay draw as planned, though as we staggered our stake I could have done with a slightly later goal as I was about to put the bulk of my trade at 3.2 just as Germany scored. However, we did get on with some at the start to cover this, and further trading on this market brought a profit of £47. Although a little unlucky that the profit was not greater, this was more than compensated with my trade on Germany on the h/t market -as I was about to trade out of it when Germany made it 2-0, so this netted a nice £81, bringing total profit to a cool £128. So a nice way to finish before my break. And I am pleased to report a 7 out 8 success rate for our Euro 2008 trades. In fact, had I listened to my own advice on the Turkey game, this would have been 8/8 (as in-players were advised to trade out of it at 1-0, but of course Turkey's come back was rather exceptional). All in all a good tournament!
Look forward to seeing you again in the trading room next season!
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Profit made on this trade = £128
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| Date: 17/08/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Man City - SCORE: 4 - 2 |
Preview:
If recent results for these 2 teams in the UEFA cup were a guide to their likely performance in their opening Premiership encounter, then Villa will walk away with all 3 points. Having nabbed arguably Rangers’ best defender (Cuellar) and, for the moment at least, managed to hold on to Barry, Villa are looking reasonably solid. In contrast City’s performance against an admittedly lively Midtyland was abysmal. This seemed to be a continuation of their form at the end of the last season. But City are one of these teams that are hard to predict and I have respect for Mark Hughes ability to motivate his team, so we will opt for a lay of the draw. If City look as bad as on Thursday night we may consider backing Villa in-play. If it is open we may back over 2.5, but will wait to see how things develop. As it is the first match of the season we will err on the side of caution all round. Later in the season, once we have had time to assess form, we will get a little bolder during our in-play trades.
To summarise, lay the draw and trade out after a goal. (Possibly) back over 2.5 but only if the action warrants it. In both cases, we will wait a little if possible to get better odds.
Other Recommendation (Not a trading room play) Back Manchester United if available at better than 1.9 (assuming they look to be in control against Newcastle United)
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Our Trading Result:
A very successful and at the same time unlucky first trade of the season. If that sounds contradictory, I will explain. We traded successfully on the lay draw, but had to wait a long time to get average odds of 3.1 for £50. We had to wait since the odds on the draw had shot up to 4.0 before kick off (unluckily, since it was 3.4 at time of the recommendation). Anyway, the first Villa goal meant we were able to trade out at average odds of 7.5 no less (since it came in the 2nd half) with £13 to leave a profit on all options. As a goal looked very likely in the first half we also covered this by backing overs with £20. Since no goal came by half-time we traded out again for no loss on unders. At 1-1 the in-play participants were advised to trade on overs again to cover any loss on overs. Just 30 seconds later the goal came and I managed to get out for only £5 loss on this – alas some of the participants were just too late as the third goal came only 3 minutes later. Hence the bad lack, but 6 goals following a goalless first-half is highly unusual! Still, overall a £32 profit– and the lesson learned is you have to act quickly when games like this open out.
Man U V Newcastle – decided against a trade as felt United were less convincing today – as proved to be the case.
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Profit made on this trade = £32
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| Date: 17/08/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Aberdeen V Rangers - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Preview:
Rangers head to Pittodrie on the back of 2 wins from 2 and chasing Hamilton Accies for top spot. Yes, I did say Hamilton, but it is still early season so premature conclusions are best avoided. One thing this fixture has given us in the past is goals, not always lot, but an average of around 2.6 in the last 6 and only one 0-0 in the last 15 years. True, both have had reasonably tight defences in their opening fixtures, but there is something about this fixture that brings out the attacking spirit in both teams and I expect a reasonably open match with at least one or 2 goals. The winner is hard to predict, but the lay of the draw should deliver again. Should Aberdeen score first early on we might find our profit squeezed, but aside from this scenario we should be able to secure a profit from this game. To recap, lay the draw and trade out after the first goal.
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Our Trading Result:
We staggered our stake for better odds. The first goal came when £60 had been layed at average odds of 3.3 (another 5 minutes and we would have gone below 3.1, but that's football!). I then traded out with £38 at average of 5.1. Rangers looked fairly in control so we decided to leave somewhat more on the win than the draw following our trade out. The dreaded equaliser against the run of pay came almost with last kick of the first-half. This left a profit of £18 which was increased to £28 by backing the draw and trading out again at less than 2.0. We also had a minor trade on the unders (bringing profit of £2) and a further loss of £5 on 0-0 gave an overall profit of £25.
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Profit made on this trade = £25
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| Date: 25/08/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Portsmouth V Man Utd - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Preview:
Pompey can't be as bad as they were last week in their 4-0 whipping from Chelsea. Historically they have done well against Man U when playing at Fratton Park, winning 3 of the last 5, losing just once. Both teams have issues with key players out, but Man Utd will welcome back Tevez and Anderson so Rooney has some support and look in slightly better shape although Traore and Utaka should add some dimension to the Pompey squad. Statistically most things point to a low scoring game but we saw both teams score in the last 3 league meetings at Fratton Park which is likely to happen again here. Portsmouth have a bad habit of conceding 1st and against big 4 teams this usually happens early on. Were are not confident that Utd will walk this so we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. You might want to stagger your lay stake just incase Pompey score 1st. We will also be having a side trade on over 2.5 inplay during the 1st half. Usual trade out plan if we don't see a 1st half goal. The 0-0 is there for you consideration for some cover at 11.0 although they are very unlikely to have 2 consecutive 0-0's.
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Our Trading Result:
This proved quite a straightforward trade. The draw was duly layed with £100 at average odds of 3.3. After the goal the draw was backed with £60 for average odds of 4.9. Another 5 minutes and we would have put more on at 3 or below. Portsmouth never really threatened in the 2nd half so overall a profit of £34 (including the £6 on 0-0). Some of the participants also traded successfully on the over 2.5 but I left this alone tonight. (I did not count my lay trade on Portsmouth as it was not part of the official trade).
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Profit made on this trade = £34
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| Date: 31/08/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Clydesdale Premier |
| Teams: Celtic V Rangers - SCORE: 2 - 4 |
Preview:
This fixture is becoming an in-play regular, and for good reason. We can usually rely on at least one or two goals and therefore good potential to profit. The analysis from previous fixtures still applies - since Walter Smith's return to Ibrox, the Old Firm have been fairly evenly matched. However, we can normally rely on a cagey opening 20 minutes (which the statistics also proved with few goals in the opening period), but after 2 early goals in the last fixture we will play safe and omit are usual Old Firm trade on under 2.5. We will consider over 2.5 if it is open but I still prefer a conservative approach even here, which will allow an easy trade out. Those joining us in the chat room will be advised when to 'stash and dash'. The main trade will be lay of the draw with the usual trade out after a goal. Is the 0-0 cover worth it here? I will decide this in-play but it is of course always available if you want to play safe. We will also decide in-play whether it is worth staggering our stake. (You might wish to consider getting on with some of your stake before kick-off if you can get 3.3 or better -but do not put more than half your intended stake on before the game).
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Our Trading Result:
I enjoyed this one! The first 30 minutes were typically cagey and for this reason I advised our in-play participants to stagger their stake. So when the first goal came, out of the blue (pardon the pun), we only had about half our stake on the draw trade (in my case £75). Since Rangers took the lead it meant that our trade out options were poorer but in any case we did not get time to trade out since Celtic equalised only 100 seconds later. This proved to be a blessing in disguise since the game totally opened out after this and we therefore decided to lay the draw again with a further £75 at considerably lower odds (my average lay odds were now 2.8). It was no surprise when another goal came (and I was not complaining that it was from Rangers!). I then traded out at average 3.5 with £102 to leave £48 profit (and very small liability on the draw). Some people also profited by backing over 2.5 but I decided against it since until the first one came neither goal keeper was call into action But after the first goal, it turned into a classic (though perhaps not from Celtic fans' perspective!) with Rangers racing into a 4-1 lead. There was smaller profit (£4) on half-time draw which was countered by an equal loss on the 0-0 cover.
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Profit made on this trade = £48
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| Date: 31/08/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Chelsea V Tottenham - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Preview:
This fixture overlaps with our first trade today, but it is has too much potential to ignore. Who can forget the last thrilling 4-4 at White Hart Lane? It would probably be too much to expect another 8 goal thriller, but the stats show evidence that at least one goal is likely. And probably from Chelsea, since Spurs defence at the start of the season has been as leaky as, well, a Spurs defence. Chelsea have opened with 2 clean sheets but of course we cannot rule out a goal from Spurs either so we will opt once more for the safer lay of the draw. If things go to plan, and we are already in profit from the Old Firm game, we will switch our main attention to this at half-time (though you will forgive me if I keep one eye on Parkhead!). The only fly in the ointments is that the odds are rather high on the draw and we may have risk missing out if an early goal comes. However, if it is still level after 20 minutes at better odds then laying the draw will be worthwhile. If not we will consider the over 2.5.
Just to recap, lay the draw but wait a little for the odds to drift down and normal trade-out. As a side trade we will consider over 2.5 in-play.
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Our Trading Result:
As our attention was still largely on the Old Firm derby we had not had time to get on this one before Chelsea took the lead. But when Spurs equalised we thought we were on to another good trading opportunity. Fortunately the participants were advised to stagger their stake on the draw, since by this time it also became apparent that Chelsea's attack were misfiring. I could not see Spurs scoring either so we covered our liability by backing 1-1. As the game went on (and a goal seemed even less likely) the advise was to play safe by reducing overall liability and just go for a small profit on either a Chelsea win or the draw (through a mix of backing Chelsea and the draw or alternatively laying Spurs). Towards the end we also reduced the liability on Spurs by backing them at 15 or better. The 1-1 brought £12 profit, giving a total profit of £19 (£7 profit was left on the draw).
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Profit made on this trade = £19
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| Date: 31/08/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Liverpool - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Preview:
This is a first for the trading room - 3 in one day! But arguably this
presents the best opportunity of the day. Both teams have had rather up and down starts to the season but both have plenty of potential in the scoring front. It is would be a mistake to read too much into early season statistics but it is nonetheless noticeable that Villa have continued the trend from last seasons by scoring 6 and conceding 5 in their opening 2 fixtures. (Last season Villa scored more than any other team with the exception of Manchester Utd. And Arsenal, but also conceded more than any other team in the top 8) The introduction of Cuellar from Rangers may help, but in the meantime they are still suspect at the back. And of course Liverpool have Torres - end of story. So we will go for our usual lay of the draw and trade out after a goal. I will check further on the stats before advising on overs in play. Though I will be surprised if this finishes 0-0, it is still worth putting a small amount on it just in case (since 2 of the last 5 at Villa Park indeed finished goalless).
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Our Trading Result:
The cautious approach once more paid off here. It did not take a rocket scientist to see we were struggling for a goal here -even in the second half when it did open out a bit more. The first significant threat on either goal took 42 minutes. Needless to say participants were advised to leave over 2.5 alone. Therefore, after initially laying the draw (at good average odds, 2.9) we advised to make sure that the 0-0 back covered the liability on the draw. Indeed we reduced this to less than our profit on 0-0 by backing and laying the draw during suitably 'quiet' moments in the 2nd half. Sure, the cautious approach sometimes means we miss bigger potential profits, but it paid off well 2 in a row here. The result was a further 'steady' profit of £27 (£45 profit on 0-0 a £18 loss on the draw). As to my friends who attended this, my commiserations, it was a fairly awful game, especially in contrast to our first today. And not a bad return for our first 'triple bill', £94
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Profit made on this trade = £27
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| Date: 06/09/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: International |
| Teams: Poland V Slovenia - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Preview:
The odds suggest an easy home win, but Poland practically have a new team from that which failed to impress at EURO 2008. Slovenia are perhaps not as bad as suggested, having recently lost only narrowly to Croatia. But Poland are rightly favourites since Slovenia’s recent away record against teams ranked above them reads W1 D0 L5 (the one exception was a 1-0 win against Hungary, who are hardly a world power themselves. Therefore, despite the fact that there will be a lot of pressure on Poland to win this, I expect that they will edge this one. Due to their untried line-up the sensible option here is undoubtedly a lay of the draw and we should at least break even if Slovenia score first. If Slovenia look as poor as the statistics indicate we may consider laying them in-play, particularly if they score first. .
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Our Trading Result:
As I suspected before the match, this proved somewhat tricky, but we came out OK in the end. Poland started easily the better team and Slovenia seemed to be living up to their reputation for poor form away from home. We therefore layed the draw (just for £10 as we intended to stagger our trade) and also layed Slovenia for £10.. Things were going according to script when Poland took the lead from an admittedly dodgy penalty. Right up to the 1-0 and beyond Poland looked in complete control and should have gone two up when Błaszczykowski (yes, I had to copy and paste the spelling!)hit the post and the ball was cleared off the line. Therefore the advice was not to trade out of the draw bet right away; of courser this proved the incorrect decision as Slovenia equalised soon after (I am afraid the crystal bowl had a temporary malfunction). However, after that Poland were poor and I felt it was unlikely they would score again quickly – so we traded on the draw again to eliminate our liability and then layed the draw again as the odds dropped, leaving a small profit on both the draw and the Poland win. This was certainly the correct decision as Poland never really looked like scoring and as the half wore on it became clearer that Slovenia were happy to settle for what for them is an excellent result. In the end £15 was left on the draw. So overall a small profit and the main thing is that the 100 per cent record for the season remains in tact! Total profit was £5 since the 0-0 was backed with £10.
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Profit made on this trade = £5
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| Date: 10/09/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: World Cup Qualifier |
| Teams: Croatia V England - SCORE: 1 - 4 |
Preview:
Croatia’s impressive home record speaks for itself: undefeated in all competitive fixtures. And you will not need reminding of the outcome of their last 2 matches. England have better memories of their 4-2 win at Euro 2004. England’s performance against Andorra hardly inspired confidence but perhaps they can be consoled that Croatia’s star striker, Kranjčar is missing so we cannot entirely rule out a surprise away win. But given Croatia’s strength it would be foolhardy to back that. So the safest option is to lay the draw. Given that there have been goals in recent fixtures between them and that England are unlikely to play for the draw, we can be fairly confident that this will not finish 0-0.
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Our Trading Result:
This was precisely the opposite of our last trade where nails were severely bitten before securing the (small) profit. And at last a really good performance from England. It was certainly the best since the 5-1 win against Germany though clearly the extra man helped. I layed the draw for £100 and much to my surprise I was able to get on at average 2.96 by staggering the trade as the odds came down fast. After the goal we traded out at average with £72 at average 3.86. I advised leaving the most profit on the win since by this time I was already impressed by England’s performance. In the second half I also layed Croatia early on but will not include that as it wasn’t mentioned. But after the sending off I felt England were good value at 1.25 so I advised backing that (in my case with £60) to bring a total profit of £41 (minus a further £2 put on the draw). The timing was perfect as it came just before Walcott made it 2-0. And to top off a really good evening Scotland won as well!
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Profit made on this trade = £41
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| Date: 13/09/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool V Man Utd - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Preview:
Torres, Rooney, Tevez, Berbatov and Keane. Its quite a line-up of attacking prowess on each side. And with other players such Gerrard and Scholes capable of scoring, we can rely on a goal or three here. But it is harder to predict the winner. I certainly would not rule out a home win, that's because United without Ronaldo have so far failed to impress this season, but United might choose this occasion to kick start their season and they certainly have the upper hand in recent fixtures at Anfield (5 wins and 1 draw).. So we will sit on the fence and lay the draw here trading out after a goal. As the odds are quite tight we may not see a massive jump following an early goal, but against that the draw odds are favourably low. If it is open a small side trade on over 2.5 might be considered.
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Our Trading Result:
Well I did say in the preview that I would not rule out the home win. But given the way United started, it certainly looked unlikely. Strangely, as the game went on, United seemed to go more and more into their shell. Anyway, as per our strategy we layed the draw, getting £50 on at average odds of 3.07. We intended to get more on as the odds drifted down but of course the early goal ruled that out. Since at this stage I felt that United were the likely winners we advised keeping more on the result so only traded out at 4.0 with £35. We did not mind that it turned out to be Liverpool that finished on top, and certainly their winner came as no surprise given the pressure. (I have not reported a further profit I made by a lay trade on Liverpool just before United scored -since it came only about 15 seconds before the United goal (!) and the participants clearly did not have enough time to respond).
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Profit made on this trade = £15
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| Date: 13/09/08 |
| Time: 17.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Man City V Chelsea - SCORE: 1 - 3 |
Preview:
I have to admit the romantic in me would like to see teams with less money doing well in the Premiership. But lets face, it is not going to happen. Even more so now that more money has been pumped into the game, exemplified by this fixture of 'poor' Chelsea (who only have lots and lots of money) against Manchester City (who only have loads and loads of money, and then some more). It is going to be an intriguing game and once more it is hard to predict the outcome, though I have a feeling that Chelsea may well raise their game to show Robinho what he is missing by signing for City. Therefore I expect a reasonably open game and the lay of the draw is the favoured option. With all the recent changes at City the stats are probably less meaningful here, but for the record Chelsea have won the last 6, and in their last 10 meetings away to City have won 8 and only lost once.
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Our Trading Result:
Perfect trade on the match bet. But alas also we were a little unlucky with a trade on the overs/unders market. I decided that the opening was a little cagey so backed under with £66 with a view to trading out after 10 minutes or so when the odds had dropped to 1.5. Indeed we started to trade out right away (and I was worried about the Robinho free- kick so advised trading out a little more!) Alas when the goal went in I still had a £45 liability on overs, and decided we would have time to trade in and out again so backed under again (with £30) before the goal. Of course sometimes this goes against you and we could not have anticipated the next goal coming only 2 minutes later. Subsequently did trade out a little more for a loss of £65. Well that's the bad news. In contrast our main trade went really well. We laid the draw as planned. After the goal I traded out again leaving a profit of £15 on the result. However, after the 1-1, and partly in view of the liability on overs, I decided that it was well worth getting in on the lay draw bet again with £100 at average 2.8. After the goal I was able to trade out with £30 at 6.6 leaving a nice profit of £85. (I advised not to trade out right away as I expected Chelsea to hold out or increase their lead, as provided to be the case). So overall a profit of £20 and the 100 per cent record in tact!
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Profit made on this trade = £20
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| Date: 15/09/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams:Tottenham V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This probably won't need much explaining to most of you. Spurs at home are a banker for a goal, scoring in 92% of their games last season. When it comes to defending they frequently concede, doing so in 81% of their home games and all 3 this season. Against a Villa side that are strong offensively scoring an average of 2 goals a game on their travels we should see Spurs concede but would support them also scoring as Villa rarely keep a clean sheet on the road. Both teams are highly likely to score and concede here as they have done so in the last 4 H2H meetings. Spurs have the better recent history, winning 6 and avoiding defeat in the last 10 so we are a little concerned for Villa although they have looked the more impressive of the two at this early stage of the season. It makes sense to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal, and because of the odds we should be able to profit whoever scores 1st. Please feel free to chase value if you want. The over 2.5 goals market is also of interest inplay during the 1st half as a side trade. Usual trade out plan on both these trades.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw as planned, in my case with £65. In retrospect a little more would have helped as shortly before Villa scored I mentioned to the in-players that an early goal was likely. Of course 2 minutes later Villa scored and there was not time to get more on. Still given Villa's dominance I advised keeping more on the result, and so traded out with £50 at average odds of 3.95. Given how poor Spurs were in the first half I also layed Spurs on the h/t market at 26 trading out at 40 (the trade out started as soon as Spurs decided they should do some attacking of their own). We will do more of such trades especially for chat room participants. This brought total profit to £24. We could have done with a later goal but to use the old cliché a little is better than none. Total Profit: £24
Aside for trading room participants:
We will look for further opportunities to add 'in play only trades' in our
future games (as with the h/t market desribed above). NB: These can be dangerous trades so do not do them unless you are experienced or are joining us in the trading room - speed is essential to make these work as you sometimes have to trade out again very quickly. (We will also look for breaks in play to trade in and out of market for little or no risk (in fact there was a good opportunity during this game due to an injury but we hadn't been looking for it so could not get on in time).
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Profit made on this trade = £24
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| Date: 21/09/08 |
| Time: 14.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams:Chelsea V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Chelsea have made a very solid start to the season, whereas Manchester United's recent showings seem to illustrate that they depend more on Ronaldo than they would care to admit. Indeed the outcome of this match may well depend upon what role Ronaldo is able to play. Games likes these are always hard to predict so we will lay the draw. A goal either way will give us a profit or an easy trade out, though it will be better if it comes later on for Chelsea. Looking at the goals per game in this fixture we find an average of 1.9 per game in the last 10 but there has only been one 0-0 though that came in the last but one fixture at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea
hold the upper hand in recent meetings at home, with United's last win a 3-0 triumph in April 2002. Since then there have been 4 wins for Chelsea and 2 draws. I am not looking to back the over 2.5 here and prefer to sit back and wait for the first goal, preferably late in the first half or early in the second.
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Our Trading Result:
This was quite a straightforward trade. We were able to make a small profit by trading out after the Manchester United goal. It was rather a pity that United scored first and so early on (as mentioned in the preview, the precise opposite would have increased our profits substantially). After the goal Chelsea were clearly on top. We layed the draw (in my case with £120 at average odds 3.13) and traded back out with £100 at 3.65 for a total net profit of £10. With £5 on the 0-0 that brought a small net profit of £5.
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Profit made on this trade = £5
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| Date: 24/09/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Carling Cup |
| Teams:Newcastle V Tottenham - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
There have been 23 goals in the last 5 league meetings between these teams. Newcastle have won the last 4 but given their recent troubles they will not be favourites to win this. Indeed it is rather amazing to see these teams occupying the bottom 2 positions in the league. Since it is a Carling Cup fixture, the statistics probably mean less but one thing for sure, both will be determined to get their get a win to get their season back on track. Clearly both teams are low on confidence and this can also lead to defensive errors so the sensible option is to lay the draw. The first goal is likely to be crucial as it may further dent the confidence of the team that goes behind.
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Our Trading Result:
This game at had an incredibly poor atmosphere and right up to about 55 minutes in it was clearly having a very negative affect on the game. I had planned to trade with more, but in the end traded on the lay draw with just £90 at average odds 3.2 - we were able to wait safely for lower odds due to the complete absence of any significant attacking prowess from either team.
But how things changed in our favour later on - as I advised waiting for the odds to come up before trading out after the first Spurs goal and therefore we did not get out before Spurs scored twice to leave a nice profit of £90! (Later traded out with £6 at 26 after the second goal!). However, so concerned was I about the chances of 0-0 that unusually I decided we should get on with this late on as cover (£40 at 4.8). This was looking a good call until just before the goal (By which time I had traded out with £4) A further £5 profit came for backing unders with £50 at 1.9 and trading out with £55 at average odds 1.5. ( I will not count a further £30 profit backing half-time draw- as I did not recommend it to the participant feeling it could still be a risky one). So overall a nice profit here of £53.
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Profit made on this trade = £53
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| Date: 28/09/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams:AC Milan V Inter Milan - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Both teams come into this on the back of unconvincing wins against lower ranked opposition. But form counts for little in a derby and there are usually plenty of goals in this fixture - 22 in the last 6. Given that they share the San Siro, it is perhaps not surprising that the 'away' team often comes out on top, but what is most noticeable is that there have been few draws, in fact only 1 in the last 15 meetings, a 0-0 draw in 2002 (the only 0-0 draw in the last 20 meetings). With Mourinho working his magic upon them, I suspect that Inter could edge this but we will of course not rely on
this as Milan have shown improvement of late and have won 2 of the last 3 derbies. They also have Kaka who can turn a game in an instant. So we will go for the safer lay of the draw. An early goal, especially from AC Milan, would not be good for profits, but we should, at worst, be able to trade out for no loss.
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Our Trading Result:
The game was reasonably open and it was no surprise when the first goal came for Milan, who seemed in control for large chunks of the game. I layed the draw with £100 at average odds of 2.91 (and would have put on more as the odds were drifting down nicely). The goal for Milan meant our profits were not as large as we would hope, but we still managed to trade out with £76 at average odds of 3.7, keeping slightly more profit on the win, for total profit of £24.
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Profit made on this trade = £24
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| Date: 30/09/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams:Bayern Munich V Lyon - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Bayern come into this on the back of a dismal start to their Bundesliga campaign, including an amazing 5-2 reverse at home to Werder Bremen. Their last was a 1-0 defeat to Hannover. However, when you look at who they left out for that game (Ze Roberto, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Lukas Podolski and Franck Ribery) and also remember that Ribery missed the defeat by Werder, it becomes clear that this could be a good chance to put their season back on track. I think that it could well be an opportunity they take particularly as Lyon's record in the competition is fairly mediocre. We will not dismiss the threat of Lyon entirely though, so a lay of the draw is recommended with our usual trade out after. Other Champions League matchers: The Zenit v. Real Madrid game (at 5:00) is just too early to do as a trading room game, but for those who are able it could also another good opportunity to lay the draw (again with little risk as there is plenty of goal scoring talent on both sides). We will also keep an eye on the Manchester United game as I think they will prove too strong for Aalborg, and it may be worth backing United if they become available at higher odds later in the game.
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Our Trading Result:
I layed the draw with £95 at average odds of 3.2. After the goal I traded out with £83 at average odds of 3.6 for total profit of just £6.
Unfortunately I was not able to focus on the Manchester United game but well done to anyone who backed them. In the Zenit game the first goal came just too quick for me, (But if you had laid the draw at the start you would have done well) so a quiet night, but we move on to the next one for hopefully a larger profit!
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Profit made on this trade = £6
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| Date: 12/10/08 |
| Time: 15.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: World Cup Qualifier |
| Teams:Scotland V Norway - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Norway made a less than impressive start to their campaign. But Scotland may miss Millar who has always done well for them in these matches and there is concern that Burley may decide to throw in the untested Iwelumo. Nevertheless, you cannot rule out a strong performance from Scotland and so we may be rewarded by laying the draw, as usual chasing value. Should Norway score first we will trade out at no loss.
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Our Trading Result:
I have never known a day like this for trading in my life. I listed all 3
matches that we traded on because it is so rare to have these score lines together (we left the Italy game alone, but as I write this I hear it finished 0-0 as well!). The amazing thing is we managed to finish on top overall (though my 100 % record is spoiled by a £2 loss on the Ukraine game). Of course the chances against 0-0 in all 3 (or should I make that 4) trades are astronomic. Well over 1,000-1. I think this shows the value of the chat room though our new participants must have been wondering what was going on and we did have to ride our luck a little to come out on top. So let's take this in order.
Firstly on the Scotland game I was fairly confident of a goal though I
expected no more than 1 or 2. However all that changed when Iwelumo missed and I began to remember my own words from the preview, ".there is concern that Burley may decide to throw in the untested Iwelumo". His miss was astonishing and the fact that he replaced McFadden (who looked easily the most likely to score) for me sealed the decision to shift the loss from the draw. Not everyone kept up with the frantic trading required so I changed my method of instructing the participants for the next 2 which as you will see proved an invaluable decision (See below). I layed the draw at average odds below 3.0 and with the trade out backed again the draw and 0-0 to
finish with a profit on both options. This I did by backing the draw and
then laying again at lower odds, in addition to a similar tactic for the
0-0. My final figures were: backed draw with £201 at 1.91 and lay draw with £173 at 1.98 to leave £38 profit. On the 0-0 I backed with £32 at 2.3 and layed with £24 at 1.08 (all average odds) to come out with a profit of £37 and overall £75. There were a couple of narrow escapes but by this time my loss would have been no more than around £50. Most participants came out OK aside from one guy for whom I changed my instructions method for next 2.
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Profit made on this trade = £75
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| Date: 12/10/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: World Cup Qualifier |
| Teams: Sweden V Portugal - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Portugal suffered a 3-2 defeat in their last qualifier at home to Denmark. They lost that game in a crazy last 10 minutes when they let a 1-0 and then a 2-1 lead slip. But they will be boosted by the return of Ronaldo - though both teams are missing other star players (Portugal: Deco, Maniche and Carvalho; Sweden: Henrik Larsson and Linderoth and Melberg) There is little doubt that Sweden are not the power they once were but there is one factor
that prevents me backing Portugal outright and its name is Ibrahimovic, a player capable of winning games on his own. Although Sweden's current ranking of 28 (FIFA) is low historically, (cf. with Portugal who are 19th, one of their highest) their home record still warrants respect (W7 D2 L1), the one defeat a 3-2 in a recent friendly against France. Also Portugal's away record against teams ranked in the top 30 is fairly patchy. For this reason the sensible trade here is to lay the draw and trade out after hopefully a goal from Portugal. Should Sweden score first we will also trade out for no loss or a small profit although despite their strong home scoring record they have looked pretty poor in their most recent matches.
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Our Trading Result:
Did I say déjà vu? It was a similar story to the Ukraine game, but by this time I was not fearing a 0-0 I was just taking it for granted! So about 60-65 minutes in we started our trade out again by backing the draw and the 0-0 - and we only left ourselves with at worst a £60 loss at any one time (which was quickly reduced as we layed the draw again). Our final figures were: Layed draw with £130 at 1.8 and backed draw with £142 at 1.77 (average odds) for £4.51 profit. Backed 0-0 with £15 at 2.33 and layed 0-0 with £18 at 1.24 for profit of £14.95. So an overall profit of £19.45. I think a successful day given that all 3 did not go as expected. On to the next one, and I do not want to see another 0-0 for some time!
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Profit made on this trade = £19
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| Date: 12/10/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: World Cup Qualifier |
| Teams: Ukraine V Croatia (was Italy)- SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Changed Matches so no preview before Kick off.
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Our Trading Result:
I decided to cover this as a 'bonus' trade rather than the Italy game as it filled the gap before our main trade, the Sweden - Portugal game. We layed the draw but this time just with £38 (but at odds much lower than 3) as I was beginning to get this 'déjà vu' sensation as it finished 0-0 at half-time. When it was clear that both teams thought they were playing in Scotland game, we used the same tactic for our trade out, backing the 0-0 and draw (and trading out again at lower odds), as above, and escaped with an overall loss of just £2. (This was a £27 profit on the 0-0 and a £29 loss on the draw).
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Profit made on this trade = -£2
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| Date: 18/10/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Man Utd V West Brom - SCORE: 4 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
West Brom have made a good start to the season, with 10 points from 7 games. They have an excellent manager in Tony Mowbray, but they have not got any points against a top 4 team, their one fixture ending in a 1-0 reverse against Arsenal. Though they made a good fight of this, I think Manchester United will be too strong here and we will be backing United, staggering our trade for better odds. My only concern is if Ferguson decides to rest many of his top players in view of the mid-week Champions League fixture, in which case we will be more cautious. But the league is a top priority so I feel this is unlikely. We also consider backing 0-0 as cover.
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Trading Result:
We backed 0-0 with £5 and also staggered our trade on Manchester United. We also backed United after the first goal as I felt that more goals were likely. Altogether we matched £143 at average odds of 1.14 for profit of £20. Overall £15.
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Profit made on this trade = £15
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| Date: 18/10/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera |
| Teams: Alt Madrid V Real Madrid - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Atletico looked at one stage almost invincible at home, winning their first 2 fixtures 4-0. Then came a 1-0 defeat at home to Sevilla which was followed by 6-1 thrashing by Barcelona. Real have not lost at the Vicente Calderon for 9 years, winning 5 of the last 7. But Atletico have too many good players to take too lightly so we will lay the draw with our usual trade out following a goal. These are usually fast, exciting games so 0-0 is considered unlikely.
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Trading Result:
We had 4 pieces of really bad luck (which prevented a larger profit),
followed by one piece of luck (which prevented a loss). However, we felt that given the catalogue of misfortune that preceded our lucky stroke, that it was deserved. Firstly, the goal after 38 seconds meant we were too late to get in, as we switched from the United game just 3 minutes later (having already secured the profit with 15 minutes left in that one). Nevertheless we got on Real with £50 at 1.53 as I felt that they were offering far more threat than Atletcio. Then 2 perfectly good Real goals were wrongly ruled out for offside. When Atletico went down to 10 men I felt it was game over and we backed Real again with a view to trading out. However then came the sending off of Van Niestelrooy. Again a strange decision. We traded out after that gradually, but when Atletico equalised we were on a small loss.
Then came our lucky stroke with the penalty to save our profit of £25 on the match bet. We also backed 1-1 with £2 so overall a £23 profit. A complicated but ultimately successful trade!
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Profit made on this trade = £23
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| Date: 18/10/08 |
| Time: 19.00hrs GMT |
| Teams: Lyon V Lille - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
No preview, Bonus trade!
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Our Trading Result:
Occasionally I will do special bonus trades just for people who have
joined the trading room. We joined this one at half-time, and if the last one was complicated then this was more so and I had to some fairly nimble trading to have us come out with a small profit (built on mix of backing and laying the draw as well as backing and laying Lille).
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Profit made on this trade = £8
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| Date: 25/10/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Teams:Hamilton V Rangers - SCORE: 1 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
(no time to write an analysis, but Hamilton struggling (lost last 4) and Rangers will be highly motivated following the upset against St Mirren
Back Rangers against Hamilton, staggering your trade for better vaule. (Aim for over 1.4 average) Please note conditions are bad so you might be able to wait a little longer.
If Hamilton score first, consider laying Hamilton if Rangers look dominant
Trade out after first goal if for Rangers.
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Our Trading Result:
I backed Rangers with just £22 at average odds of 1.34, since I was rather concerned that the conditions were making it difficult and wanted to wait for higher odds. The decision was justified when Hamilton took the lead; after this I got back in with £75 at average odds of 1.65 when Rangers equalised for a total profit of £56. If you decided to lay Hamilton at 1-0 as recommended in the preview you would possibly have done even better than this.
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Profit made on this trade = £56
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| Date: 26/10/08 |
| Time: 13.30hrs GMT |
| Teams:Chelsea V Liverpool - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
In-form Chelsea against the newly resilient Liverpool. These games are often tight affairs with 8 out of the last 9 finishing under 2.5. Chelsea have easily the better head-to-head record winning 3 out of the last 4 at home, though last time was 0-0. Liverpool without Torres certainly carry less of a threat even though they have done reasonably well without him. The only option in game like this is to lay the draw, trading out after a goal to either side. We will also consider backing under 2.5 as a side trade, trading out after a goal for either side.
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Our Trading Result:
So this is indeed a new Liverpool (for now anyway!); the early goal came
at inconvenient time as were just beginning to trade out of our £70 back of under 2.5 (at around 1.68). But I was fairly confident there would not be another goal right away so we backed under again to increase our odds on the trade out, finishing with an £8 profit (I did not want to risk a high liability on overs, hence the heavy trade out). Because of the early goal we had only laid the draw for £10, but as Liverpool rarely looked under threat we only partially traded out and indeed backed and laid Liverpool again to finish with £14 profit. So overall £22 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £22
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| Date: 26/10/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Teams:Marseilles v. PSG - SCORE: 2 - 4 |
Our Recommendation:
This could be the game that finally sees Marseilles take over from Lyon as League 1 leaders. Whether they can maintain the lead is another matter but the odds must be good of winning against their bitter rivals. However PSG are also a different proposition from the team that was so easy to beat last season, so we will go for the safer option of laying the draw, staggering our stake for better value.
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Our Trading Result:
Well done PSG, but I was rather miffed that you waited until the 2nd half! We decided not to lay the draw due to the high odds -good decision as after the early PSG goal they dropped further. But I am afraid we got caught out on the half-time market having layed Marseilles with a view to trading out. The Marseilles goal caught us out though we did manage to partially trade out but not before the 2nd Marseilles goal shortly before the interval so the first loss of any significant amount to report this season (£45). Sill, not a bad weekend overall. We also had £5 on 0-0 so overall -£50
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Profit made on this trade = -£50
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| Date: 29/10/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Teams:Hull V Chelsea - SCORE: 0 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Chelsea have won all 5 of their away fixtures in cup and league, scoring 15 and conceding just 1. Last season, their away record against mid-table teams away from home was similarly impressive (I am guessing that Hull will finish mid-table). Hull deserve the plaudits for their performance this season but I really cannot see them getting any sort of result here, especially as they will be keen to bounce back from their defeat last Sunday. I am not suggesting that it will necessarily be easy for Chelsea, but I think you will be rewarded by backing Chelsea and chasing better odds upwards. My final stake will depend upon Chelsea's performance: Backing with only £50 maximum if it looks closer than expected (as will my trade out - I may even consider only trading out with half my original stake if they are still on top) If it looks like Hull are going to spring a surprise I will probably I will cover any loss by backing draw at around 2.0 If Hull score first and Chelsea look strong I will lay Hull. I feel the odds on laying Hull also offer value, but be careful to trade out again if it looks tighter than expected.
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Our Trading Result:
I layed Hull with £22 at 8.8 before the start; I was going to get on Chelsea as well but preferred to wait until I could see the match and of course while I was trying to get my feed working the first goal came (after only 3 mins). I really could not see Chelsea giving it away so we backed Chelsea with a further £122 at 1.14 (some would have got higher odds); we would have traded out had Hull posed any kind of threat in the 2nd half, but they never looked in the game after the interval so a total profit of £38.
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Profit made on this trade = £38
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| Date: 08/11/08 |
| Time: 12.45hrs GMT |
| Teams:Arsenal V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Arsenal are probably one of the most unpredictable teams in the Premiership at the moment. So while form suggests a United victory, since I am never sure which Arsenal will turn up, I am recommending that we lay the draw and trade out after the first goal. There is also no real pattern to recent matches, though United have the slight edge. The one thing we can be reasonably confident of is goals, which also supports are decision to lay the draw.
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Our Trading Result:
So the 'good' Arsenal turned up. We layed the draw with just £20 at 3.2 (I was hoping for the draw odds to drift down faster than materialised). After trading out at around 3.8 this left just £3 on the result, but after 2-0 I felt the odds on Arsenal were generous given how well they were coping with United's attacks so we were able to back them(The draw had been also covered by the time United got the goal). We also layed and backed Untied to give a profit of just £9. We had a small further profit on the over/under 2.5 to bring total profit to £10.
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Profit made on this trade = £10
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| Date: 02/11/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Teams: Motherwell v Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Motherwell face their second game in a row against the Old Firm. Their record this season commands respect and they were a little unlucky not to take the lead last Saturday against Celtic. Yet despite running the Old Firm close, they have not yet managed to get the better of them. This season they have played 3 matches against the Old Firm and lost them all, even if narrowly Last season they finished 3rd and as you would expect their record was decent, particularly the shock 1-0 win at Parkhead. However they still did not manage a home win against either. Similarly, their record this season at home is good, but all their victories have come against the bottom 3 teams. I feel with Rangers beginning to find form I believe they will edge a close encounter. But as a draw is also a possibility we will lay Motherwell. We will probably limit our stake to £22 given the odds. If it looks like 'Well are giving Rangers a lot of problems in the first half hour we will reduce our liability and trade out completely if it is still level going into the last 20-25 minutes. If Motherwell take an early lead we will consider laying them again as long Rangers are dominant.
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Our Trading Result:
To be honest this was a rather inept attacking display from Rangers. I layed Motherwell with £28 at average odds of 6.9 and traded out partially with £4 at average odds of 31.9. Rangers were on top going into the last 20 minutes so we decided not to trade out completely. Motherwell pressed a bit at the end but by this time we were able to substantially reduce our liability. So total profit of £23.
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Profit made on this trade = £23
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| Date: 02/11/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Teams:Celtic v Kilmarnock - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
It is not going to come as a surprise when I tell you I am expecting a Celtic win here. Kilmarnock's confidence is low and therefore I really cannot see them slipping up here. However the odds will reflect this so we will only get involved if Celtic are still level after 30 minutes, by which time the odds should have drifted upwards. Note: As these games take place at the same time. our main focus will be on the 'Well game so this will be used as a side trade and will probably not trade with more than £50. We will trade in slowly if it is still level.
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Our Trading Result:
Celtic really dominated as expected, so much so that I decided to trade
in even after the first goal, backing them at average odds of 1.11 with £111 for a profit of £11. So it was some consolation for the further damage to the 'Gers title chances.
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Profit made on this trade = £11
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| Date: 22/11/08 |
| Time: 17.30hrs GMT |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
This is not the main trade for the day, which will be the Inter game
directly after. This should be a tough game for United, yet the recent record at Villa Park makes surprising reading: Played 6 won 6 (some quite comfortably). Untied are under great pressure to win and this may bring out the best in them. If Villa look on top we may well either leave alone, or reduce our stake, but the sensible play here will be to lay the draw, trading out after a goal for either side. A goal for Villa still should allow us to trade out for no loss. If it looks tight at the beginning we may get in the under 2.5 market as a side trade, trading out after 10-15 minutes.
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Our Trading Result:
Villa's solid defence saw them through this one. I backed under 2.5 with £52 at 1.85 (actually most participants got around 1.94), trading out again to leave a profit of £12. On the match trade, due to the lack of goalmouth action and the strong defences, and also since I could not see a Villa win, I decided to lay Villa with (rather than lay the draw as in the preview). We layed Villa with £20 at average odds of just over 7.0 and backed them again with £2 when the odds drifted upwards, to give £17 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £29
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| Date: 22/11/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Teams: Inter Milan V Juventus - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Juventus have an excellent record against Inter, having won their last 2 encounters at the San Siro. There is no reason to suppose that they may not come out on top again, but the winner is not so predictable so we will lay the draw and trade out after a goal for either side.. We should easily be able to get low odds on the draw to ensure a small or large profit regardless of who scores first.
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Our Trading Result:
This was a much tighter game than I expected. We layed the draw with £35 and traded out partially to leave a profit of £26. Due to the thought of another 0-0, I also decided to cover it with £20 at 5.8 and trading out with £8 at 3.36 which gave us a loss of £12 (£20 traded in, £8 out). So overall just a £14 profit here.
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Profit made on this trade = £14
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| Date: 29/11/08 |
| Time: 14.30hrs GMT |
| Teams: Bayer Leverkusen V Bayern Munich - SCORE: 0 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
This is the Trade from Traders Advantage, I might look to trade this differently so I will clarify inplay.
This should be entertaining and ideally will give us a good gage to who will be sitting top at the end of the season. Both these two sit joint 2nd in the Bundesliga, 3 points behind Hoffenheim. Historically Bayern have the better H2H, winning the last 7 meetings. If you can remember what happened last season when these two met in similar league positions (Leverkusen were played off the park), this is what we feel will be on the cards again here. Despite Bayern's poor start to the season they now haven't lost since September and have won 6 of the last 8 scoring an average over 2 goals in these matches. Leverkusen obviously won't be a pushover so should take a while to break down and probably will score but we give this one to Bayern. With both side likely to score we should also see this finish over 2.5 as they rarely draw, which was the result of 6 of the last 7 H2H meetings at the Bay-Arena.
We are a little concerned with under's here as the majority of H2H's have seen a goal inside 20 min's so we will leave this alone but will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal from either side. We will also put £5 on the 0-0, currently available at 18.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw slowly due to the lack of goalmouth action. Despite Leverkuesen stricking the bar, I felf if a goal was coming it was more likely to be from Munich. We layed draw with just £17 and layed Leverkuesen with £5. After the goal I decided that it was worth backing Bayern and trading out again for a total profit of £25. We also covered the 0-0 with £6 (Slight trade out left only £4 loss on that). So overall £21 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £21
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| Date: 30/11/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Teams: Chelsea V Liverpool - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
The statistics support a low scoring game with 6 of the last 7 finishing
under 2.5, the exception being the last, a 2-1 win for Chelsea. Of course common sense suggests a Chelsea win but Arsenal have proved to be a dangerously unpredictable team, seemingly only performing against the toughest opposition. So an Arsenal win would not be a total shock and we will therefore lay the draw, trading out after a goal for either team. Should one team or another dominate (and this is so unpredictable that I am not sure who that might be), we may consider a small lay on the appropriate team. But it is more likely to be a tight game, with neither team totally in control. With the goal scoring talent on display 0-0 is highly unlikely, though we may still consider a small cover trade if it looks tight. We will also consider a small side trade on under 2.5, getting out after 15-20 minutes.
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Our Trading Result:
I actually remember saying that I would avoid Arsenal due to their
unpredictably (during an earlier conversation with chat room people). Well I was almost left to regret that I did not listen to my own advise as we got caught totally by surprise by the 2 Arsenal goals. That gave a loss on the under market of £16. We also on a much larger potential loss on the main market. But Chelsea looked as stunnded as I was by the goals and so I made a rather risky call to trade out on the Arsenal win (for £5 profit). But Chelsea actually never forced me to panic! So I managed to get our participants out of this with only a minor loss. Overall a £15 loss due to £4 cover on 0-0.
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Profit made on this trade = -£15
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| Date: 30/11/08 |
| Time: 19.30hrs GMT |
| Teams: Palermo V AC Milan - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
AC Milan come into this on the back of an impressive 11 match unbeaten record in Seria A. However, their record to Palermo is less than impressive, so we will lay the draw here in case Palermo take the lead. There is no clear evidence to support over or under so we will eave that market. Ronaldinhio is finally beginning to find some form so this plus their recent record gives a good chance that AC will finish on top. If not, the odds on the draw are low enough to ensure a trade out for no loss.
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Our Trading Result:
After the Chelsea game we played this rather cautiously, and were able to trade out for just £12 profit on the main market. Unfortunately we put an over cautious £10 on the 0-0 and traded out for no loss on under 2.5. So just £2 profit overall.
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Profit made on this trade = £2
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| Date: 01/12/08 |
| Time: 19.45hrs GMT |
| Teams: Triestina V Treviso - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation: ET Preview
Triestiana are undefeated at home this season, scoring in all these games but defensively have looked a little suspect conceding in 9 of the last 10. Treviso are still chasing their 1st home win of the season but have improved over the last few weeks avoiding defeat in their last 4 matches. H2H Treviso have had the better of Triestina in their most recent meetings but when Treviso have met a team in the top half on the road over the last few seasons they have failed to take 3 points on the last 11 attempts. Basically we feel with both sides being on an uptrend its a tough call and will probably end in a draw but we should be able to profit here as a goal is very likely. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to chase shorter odds just incase Treviso score 1st. If you want some cover on the 0-0 please feel free, £5 makes sence initially, backing further if your concerned later in the match.
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Our Trading Result:
These 0-0 score lines seen to come along like buses. What a goal fest of an evening (not!). We duly layed the draw with £30 at average odds of around 2.8. We also took cover on 0-0 with £7. But it soon became apparent that neither of these teams could hit a barn door at 5 paces. Therefore, to cover our liability of around £60 we backed the 0-0 with more, trading out again towards the end. We also backed the draw a little more to further reduce the our liability on the draw; it worked out fine as we made 57 loss on the draw which was covered by 58 profit on 0-0 (We also covered the late goal by laying the draw towards the end). So, overall it a 'token' £1 profit in this one.
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Profit made on this trade = £1
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| Date: 01/12/08 |
| Time: 20.00hrs GMT |
| Teams: Liverpool V West Ham - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation: ET Preview
If motivation is strong factor then Liverpool should win here, however these games can throw up surprises. We will be waiting until line ups are confirmed before jumping. But if Liverpool look in control we will consider wither backing them (waiting for odds to drift upwards) or small lay bet on West Ham. If Hammers score early on we will consider backing Liverpool again. However if it is still 0-0 late on we will reduce our liability on the draw. If I decide against a trade then it will not count as one of your 8 per month.
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Our Trading Result:
So Liverpool did it again (i.e. failed to score when they could have put
daylight between themselves and their rivals). But we covered that option, backing 0-0 with £5 at 13.5, trading out slightly towards the end to leave £58 profit. We also backed Liverpool with £52 at average odds 1.47 and layed West Ham with £24 (trading out slightly to reduce our liability) and backed draw with £2 at 5.1. This left a £31 loss on the draw, but obviously we were well covered already on the 0-0, so overall £27 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £27
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| Date: 06/12/08 |
| Time: 21.00hrs GMT |
| Teams: Barcelona V Valencia - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
My Recommendation:
Barcelona have arguably played some of the best football of any team in Europe this season. This only seems true, however, when Messi is playing. As I expect Messi to play, this could well be another victory. Last season Barcelona put 9 past Valencia without reply. Yet perhaps we should not read too much into this as they did have their lowest La Liga finish in recent seasons have showed signs of getting back to their best this season under new coach Unai Emery. Therefore, we cannot rule out entirely the chances that Valencia could get a draw here, particularly as their defence has been quite solid away from home, only shipping 1 goal in their last 5 away fixtures. However, they will be missing Carolos Machereno for this
(suspended). We will therefore either lay the draw or lay Valencia according to how the action unfolds. If Valencia look dangerous (and they do have some reasonable fire power in their ranks, notably Mata and David Villa), and if Messi looks off colour, we will trade out for no loss.
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Our Trading Result:
We laid Valencia with £14 at average odds of 7.3. I limited our liability
on Valencia out of respect for their away record (unbeaten until now). But this was another impressive performance and Valencia never really threatened.
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Profit made on this trade = £13
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| Date: 13/12/08 |
| Time: 17.30hrs GMT |
| Teams: Tottenham V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
My Recommendation:
Traders Advantage Preview (we might trade this differently inplay)
Spurs have quite a poor record against big 4 sides at White Hart Lane, their main issue is stopping them scoring (failed to do so on the last 15 attempts). Utd had their 1st shut out in 2008 against Villa recently but its unlikely to happen again here. Utd are still undefeated against non-big 4 sides in 2008 and against a reinvigorated Spurs side it its likely to be tight but they should still win. Personally we feel a low score affair is on the cards here as despite Utd scoring prowess they have seen 10 of their last 13 on the road finishing under 2.5 goals. This is supported by a tighter Spurs defence under Harry which has seen 5 of the last 6 finish under 2.5 goals. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We will also be laying over 2.5 goals as a side trade for the 1st 10-15min's or so, getting out sooner if a goal looks likely. You shouldn't need any cover here but the 0-0 is there for your consideration inplay.
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Our Trading Result:
We backed under 2.5 with £55 at 1.97. Given the lack of clear scoring
threat from either team, we were able to trade out gradually, with £68 at 1.41 average odds for a profit of £24. For the main trade, I decided to switch to laying Spurs. The reasoning was straightforward: I was never too concerned about a Spurs goal and always felt if a goal would come it would be from United. And the 0-0 always looked a possibility. So we layed Spurs with £20 at 5.0, only trading out with £4 towards then end at average odds of 24.5, for £15 profit. So overall £39 profit
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Profit made on this trade = £39
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| Date: 13/12/08 |
| Time: 21.00hrs GMT |
| Teams: Barcelona V Real Madrid - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
My Recommendation:
Two Barca trades in quick succession, but it is fully justified by their superb form this season, especially at home (Played 5, won 5, scored 24, conceded 3). 4 of those 5 wins were against teams currently in the top half, including, of course, last week's 4-0 thumping of Valencia. True, they are now playing their rivals and the "El Classico" has a habit of throwing up unpredictable results (rather like the Old Firm derby). But Real are currently in disarray at the back, part of the reason for sacking their coach, whereas Barca have tightened up considerably: In their first 6 La Liga games they conceded 7 goals, whereas they have only conceded once in the last 7. This is why I am expecting another Barca win here, (again assuming Messi and E'to are playing), but I will take account of the 'unpredictable element' by considering laying the draw. However, we will also consider backing Barca if they are dominating. If Real look dangerous (after backing Barca) we will take some cover by also making a small trade on either 1-0 Real or 'next goal' Real. 0-0 is not considered likely, particularly with Real's leaky defence.
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Our Trading Result:
Altogether we backed Barca with £30 at 1.61 and layed Real with £26 at average odds 7.23. At the start we also took cover of £10 on 0-1 at 30 (or 32). After the Barca goal we backed the draw with £2 at 10.5 (and £12 at 2.62 prior to the goal). This left a profit of £31 on Barca, and overall a profit of £21. (So £60 altogether for our in-play trading day).
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Profit made on this trade = £21
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| Date: 21/12/08 |
| Time: 16.00hrs GMT |
| Teams:Liverpool V Arsenal - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
My Recommendation:
Arsenal are clearly the hardest team to figure in the Premiership and I have to admit out one point I advised people not to trade in matches involving them. Yet there is one clear pattern to their play: they always seem to raise their game against the 'big boys'. So in this match we have to say that I would not be surprised if they came out on top. However the odds on the draw or low enough to allow us to safely trade out whoever scores first, so we will lay the draw, and stagger our trade to ensure we get an even easier trade out possibility. It should not matter greatly who takes the lead, though we would obviously prefer Arsenal as slight favourites, so the unpredictability of this match will not count against us. Liverpool have made one of their best ever starts to the Premiership yet they have failed to impress in their recent performances. But equally, we cannot rule out that they will raise their game sufficiently in the game. In head-to-heads, the usual result is a scoring draw or home win, with the last away win coming in a 2-1 victory for Arsenal in October 2003. There has not been a 0-0 score line in the last 19 and I am not expecting it here; yet we may still back this with £5 for cover if, against expectations, it looks tight.
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Our Trading Result:
I decided that although I could see goals coming, it was worth waiting for lower average odds. So the first goal was a bit unfortunate as I was about to lay the draw further (we only had £5 matched). Following this Arsenal looked in control for the next 10 minutes, and we layed Liverpool. Yet it soon became apparent that Liverpool were getting stronger so we backed Liverpool just before the goal, though we still had a slight liability on them when the goal went in. Following this we layed Arsenal. Again, after the sending off, though Arsenal did well, I felt that it was unlikely they would win and we layed Arsenal. So it was quite a complicated trade, and altogether, our final figures were: Layed draw £15 at 2.7, backed draw £2 at 4.8; Layed Arsenal £44 at 5.5; backed Liverpool £2 at 12; Layed Liverpool £6 at 9. This gave us £28 profit on draw, and £20 overall (since we had £4 loss on
under/over 2.5 market and £5 on 0-0 as cover)
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Profit made on this trade = £20
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| Date: 21/12/08 |
| Time: 18.00hrs GMT |
| Teams:Villarreal V Barcelona - SCORE: 1 - 2 |
My Recommendation:
We might not follow this preview, you will be informed inplay
Villarreal are one of the teams we could see Barca slip up at as they have a decent record of beating Barca having won 5 of the last 6 H2H meeting when playing at El Madrigal. Their recent form puts some doubt on this but they aren't likely to play a 10 man defence either so we should see the usual end to end meeting between these two. Barca are simply in amazing form with 9 wins and a draw from the last 10 and after having a week off should be well rested for this encounter. We will be very surprised if Barca don't defeat yet another team chasing a Champions League spot here but because of their H2H record we prefer to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal but at a better price than the current 4.2, preferring to chase around 3.5. We will be having a side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half and might find we are on this before the lay the draw trade. The 0-0 is at 17 if you want some cover. Usual recovery here.
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Our Trading Result:
After the earlier complicated trade this was much more straightforward. We layed Villareal with £20 at just over 5 (I felt the lay draw odds were too high). After the goal (for Villa), I decided it was worth waiting to see how Barcelona reacted, and of course they reacted superbly, eventually going 2-1 up. In the meanimte we layed Villa for a further £20 since they looked superb in the period after conceding the lead. We were also able to match high odds at 2-1 and eventually "greened out" on all options, so were not concerned even when they went down to 10 men. Our final figures were layed
Villareal £40 at 5.3 and backed Villareal with £6 at average odds of over 26 (Participants may have got higher odds on the back stake) for total profit of just over £32.
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Profit made on this trade = £32
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| Date: 27/12/08 |
| Time: 12.30hrs GMT |
| Teams: Rangers V Celtic - SCORE: 0 - 1 |
My Recommendation:
We will be laying the draw, chasing value by staggering our stake. Possible variations in play.
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Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw cautiously with £32 at average odds of around 3.1. I became more concerned about the possibility of 0-0, particularly since although Rangers dominated the attacking, they looked particularly toothless, which became more apparent when Boyd missed the sitter near the start of the 2nd half. We backed 0-0 with £7 and under 1.5 with £65 at 1.66 - and had partially traded out before the first goal - and fortunately were able to trade out further, leaving £10 profit. After the Celtic goal we only traded out partially as, alas, I was convinced by then that my team was not going to equalise. This left £15 profit on Celtic and £18 overall. (My actual profit was a bit higher, as I layed Gers - but did not report in inplay as did not want to give the in-players a larger liability)
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Profit made on this trade = £18
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