W
 

 


Traders Advantage Results

August 2008 trading advice given

Profit for Month = £530

Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed results table below)

Date
Teams
Score
Profit
HOLIDAY 01/08/08 - 08/08/08
09/08/08
Birmingham V Sheffield Utd
1 - 0
£5
09/08/08
Orebro V IFK Goteborg
4 - 2
£1
10/08/08
Aalesund V Stabaek
1 - 2
£15
10/08/08
Lyn V Lillestrom
1 - 0
£22
11/08/08
Fredrikstad V Tromso
2 - 0
£8
12/08/08
IFK Norrkoping V Gefle
2 - 1
£46
13/08/08
Barcelona V Wisla Krakow
4 - 0
£19
14/08/08
York V Wrexham
1 - 0
£5
15/08/08
Hammarby V GAIS
2 - 4
£35
16/08/08
Arsenal V West Brom
1 - 0
£2
16/08/08
Middlesbrough V Tottenham
2 - 1
-£106
17/08/08
Mönchengladbach V Stuttgart
1 - 3
£27
17/08/08
Helsingborg V Ljungskile
0 - 1
£0
17/08/08
Kalmar V Orebro
2 - 2
£35
18/08/08
Torquay V Ebbsfleet Utd
0 - 2
£20
19/08/08
Australia V South Africa
2 - 2
£37
20/08/08
Germany V Belgium
2 - 0
-£35
21/08/08
Hammarby V Kalmar
0 - 0
-£160
21/08/08
Hannover 96 V Cottbus
0 - 0
£48
22/08/08
Charlton V Reading
4 - 2
£48
23/08/08
Stuttgart V Leverkusen
0 - 2
£7
23/08/08
Stoke V Aston Villa
3 - 2
£69
23/08/08
Tottenham V Sunderland
1 - 2
-£70
23/08/08
Norrkoping V Goteborg
2 - 2
£5
23/08/08
Fulham V Arsenal
1 - 0
£40
24/08/08
Man City V West Ham
3 - 0
£106
24/08/08
Bochum V Wolfsburg
2 - 2
£32
25/08/08
Portsmouth V Man Utd
0 - 1
£61
26/08/08
Gefle V Helsingborgs
3 - 0
£15
27/08/08
Notts Forest V Sunderland
1 - 1
£23
28/08/08
Kalmar V Gent
4 - 0
£8
29/08/08
Karlsruhe V FC Koln
0 - 2
£2
30/08/08
Schalke V Bochum
1 - 0
£32
30/08/08
West Ham V Blackburn
4 - 1
£41
30/08/08
Valencia V Mallorca
3 - 0
£87

 

go back to results page
Trades Completed in Detail



Date: 09/08/08
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Championship
Teams: Birmingham V Sheffield Utd : 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Birmingham slipped back into the Championship after finishing 19th in the Premier League last season. They now start this season as one of the Championship title favorites which to be honest on paper looks a good bet. They have a very experience team and retained some quality players too. The acquisition of West Brom's Kevin Phillips will definately help them where they were lacking last season, hopefully he can repeat the 22 goals he scored to help Birmingham bounce back up to Premiership football. They take on another team with Premiership experience here which should be a good test for the Blues. They finished 9th last season and will be a contender for a top 6 place this year. They don't look as well rounded as the Blues with an iffy midfield which could be exploited by Birmingham. James Bettie will cause a few issues for Birmingham but they should come out on top here. As its the 1st game of the season we are going to stick to laying the draw with this one and trading out after a goal. Historically their H2H meetings are fairly low scoring (last 7 with Birmingham at home finished under 2.5 goals) but we haven't seen a goalless match between them and with both teams strengths being up front we are expecting 2 or more goals

So to confirm we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. If you want to chase a better price please feel free this will also help you out if Sheffield score 1st. We will also be have our usual side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay (stagger your stake) as this will give us more support if we see a 1st half goal as expected.We will use our usual trade out plan on the goals bet (out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over with the same stake) back in if 3 look likely in 2nd half.Also out at 1.8 on the draw if the match remains goalless as usual.If the match is tight inplay backing the 0-0 is there for your consideration. We probably won't unless its obviously going to remain goalless.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.3 and backed over 2.5 goals at 3.2. A few good chances in the 1st half but no goals so we traded out for no loss on the goals bet at 5.7. Those members that asked us about the 0-0 cover we highlighted we would be leaving it alone as we expected a few goals still. No goal came before the odds reached 1.8 on the draw so we traded out as usual with the loss on the draw with £95 hoping for goal in the last 20 mins. Birmingham saved our skin in injury time for a token £5 profit.




Profit made on this trade = £5



Date: 09/08/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Allsvenskan
Teams: Orebro V IFK Goteborg : 4 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Historically we can't remember the last time Orebro have beaten IFK Goteborg home or away, the last meeting finished 4-0 to IFK. We can't see this game bucking the trend as IFK are unbeaten in 5, winning the last 4 and looking really sharp. We are not ignoring the fact Orebro have improved in recent weeks but have been more impressed by IFK's improvements especially up front. They have played more defensively on the road in previous weeks but having won their last two. We feel this is likely to be their 3rd consecutive away win. These two very rarely draw so we should see a winner and a few goals scored.

Whilst we feel IFK will win we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal out of caution. If you want to chase a better price please feel free this will also help you out if Orebro score 1st. We will also be have our usual side trade on over 2.5 goals inplay (stagger our stake) as this will give us more support if we see a 1st half goal as expected.

We will use our usual trade out plan on the goals bet (out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over with the same stake) back in if 3 look likely in 2nd half.

Also out at 1.8 on the draw if the match remains goalless as usual.

If the match is tight inplay backing the 0-0 is there for your consideration. We probably won't unless its obviously going to remain goalless.

There isn't much money on this game at the moment so you might have to use conservative stakes.



Our Trading Result:
Obviously one of those days.. A goal in the 1st minute meant we only managed to get £20 on the lay bet at 3.6 and nothing on the goals bet. After Orebro took the lead we traded out at 3.8 leaving £1 profit on the win and a few pence on the draw.


Profit made on this trade = £1



Date: 10/08/08
Time: 17.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Tippeligaen
Teams: Aalesund V Stabaek : 1 - 2
Our Recommendation:
In this encounter 2nd from bottom Aalesund take on league leaders Stabaek. Aalesund's have been scoring very well at home this season averaging 2 goals a match but they just can't keep a clean sheet, especially against the strong offensive teams likely Stabaek, with all their hard work being undone but conceding so often. Stabaek should definately score here as they haven't failed to do so in all H2H meetings against Aalesund. We won't be surprised if they concede though as they have done in the last 5 meetings between the two. All things considered Stabaek should walk away with the points here as Aalesund have lost 100% of their meetings this season against strong offensive teams and haven't shown any signs they can overcome Stabaek.

The goals market looks the safest trade here so we backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal. The odds are a little short so staggering our stake during the 1st half makes the better option. For those who want to get in early you could lay under 2.5 instead.

If Stabaek concede 1st its worth considering a small back bet on them as they are very likely to equalise so you can trade out in profit.

Usual trade out plan if we don't see a goal before HT. Back in if concerned 3 are coming in the 2nd half.


Our Trading Result:
Plenty of time to get our stake on here. We got average odds of 1.96 matched with a full stake. The opening goal came about 10 min's later than we wanted but enabled us to trade out for a small profit of £15 at 1.76 with £105. Aalesund scored as expected which help the score line finish over 2.5 as expected.



Profit made on this trade = £15



Date: 10/08/08
Time: 17.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Tippeligaen
Teams: Lyn V Lillestrom : 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Lyn at home have performed well with only 1 loss in the last 10 which was against leaders Stabaek. Against teams with Lillestrom's form they have won 86% of games this season. When these two have met previously they always have goals with Lillestrom winning the majority which puts us off backing them here and explains why the odds are so similar. Lillestrom this season have been pretty poor with only 1 win in the last 7 away games, conceding 18 goals in these games so you would expect Lyn to get the points here. Because of the H2H history we prefer to lay the draw. We should be safe to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal whoever scores. The over 2.5 goals market is of interest as a side trade and would have paid off in the majority of meetings between these two.

The 0-0 is there for your consideration inplay if the game is tight but you shouldn't need it.

Usual trade out plan if we don't see a goal before HT on the goals trade. Back in if concerned 3 are coming in the 2nd half.

Out at 1.8 if we don't see any goals before the draw odds reach this point. Loss on the draw.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.45, and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds 2.25. The one and only goal came from Lyn just after the goal in the Stabaek game. This enabled us to trade out at 1.8 on the goals trade with £60 for the smaller profit of £9 as the game finished under 2.5. We also traded out at 3.95 on the draw with £86 for another £13 profit.



Profit made on this trade = £22



Date: 11/08/08
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Tippeligaen
Teams: Fredrikstad V Tromso : 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Fredrikstad have been very impressive at home this season with only 1 loss in the last 10 games against league leaders Stabaek. They have been scoring consistently averaging over 2 goals a game in these matches. There opponents here are no pushovers with only 1 loss in the last 8, but this was the reverse fixture so Fredrikstad should do it again here. Historically when Fredrikstad are at home Tromso have not taken anything from the game. The main feature of these games is goals, with 18 being scored in the last 4 meetings with Fredrikstad at home. The June meeting where Tromso were at home and lost 1-0 was the closest we can remember in recent years. We are expecting a similar meeting with both teams scoring this time which should tip the score towards overs as they haven't drawn a match in the last 10 match ups and when Tromso meet strong attacking teams 83% of their games over the last 3 season have finishing over 2.5.



As we should have at least 1 goal (no goalless matches in their H2H history) we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, staggering our stake for lower average odds and backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay during the 1st half.Fairly standard trade here with the usual trade out plan on both trades. Lets home for a goal around the 30 min mark.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.45, and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds 2.8 with £50 as a side trade. The game was going as expected with a few good chances in the 1st half but no goals so we traded out on the goals bet for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. Fredrikstad opened the scoring after 56 mins for us to trade out on the draw bet at 5.0 with £65 for £33 on the win. 75 min's in they were given a penalty to go two up. This left us in a difficult position as there was 15 mins left for a further goal to be scored. Most members let this run as there is only about a 13% chance of 3 goals in a 2nd half and there wasn't much money available in the market to get back in at this time. Although we very rarely do this we chose the safer option of minimising our potential loss as we felt Tromso could pull one back even though Fredrikstad had now developed a 10 men defence. So put another £25 on overs at 3.0 which reduced our potential loss by £50. Overall we walked away with £8 as the match finshed 2-0



Profit made on this trade = £8



Date: 12/08/08
Time: 18.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Allsvenskan
Teams: IFK Norrkoping V Gefle : 2 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Norrkoping are still without a win at home this season and sitting rock bottom of the league and come into this match having lost 5 in a row. Gefle aren't much better sitting just 2 places above them. Saying this they looked good in their last match beating mid-table Halmstad 4-0 and took 3 points off Elfsborg a few weeks ago which makes them look the better team here. Despite both teams having a few issues up front this season, historically when they have met its been a goal frenzy with 22 goals scored in the last 5 meetings, Gefle won the most recent one fairly convincingly. A feature of their meetings is both teams scoring which is likely to happen here as defensively both have issues.

Laying the draw here looks pretty safe whoever scores 1st we will make a profit so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. A speculative side trade on over 2.5 would have paid off in all their recent encounters by providing a 1st half goal so we will be having our usual side trade on the over 2.5 goals market.

Usual trade out plan on the goals bet and the draw bet if things go wrong.

The 0-0 is there for your consideration inplay if your concerned its going to finish goalless although we can't see it.

Our Trading Result:
About time we got one bang on the money. We layed the draw at 3.6 and backed over 2.5 goals with £30 of the £50 we were looking to get on at 2.4. Norrkoping opened the scoring after 15 mins for us to trade out at 4.8 with £72 on the draw and1.6 with £35 on the goals bet. It doesn't get any easier than this.



Profit made on this trade = £46



Date: 13/08/08
Time: 20.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Uefa Champions League
Teams: Barcelona V Wisla Krakow : 4 - 0

Our Recommendation:
We are not going to discuss the player movements and the ongoing saga of Samuel Eto as we will be here for the next two days. One thing we can say about Barca is they look the best we have seen them in years with a 100% record through pre-season and a very high level of fitness. Guardiola's focus on the basics looks to have paid off through preseason with goals a plenty, which hopefully will get them off to a flyer this year. Their Polish opponents here have already started their season so should be fit, registering a win at the weekend. Playing against Barca at home might have the same effect as a rabbit in headlights of your car but we are expecting them to hold tight in defence for the 1st 20-30 min's before Barca open the scoring. Obviously they very rarely fail to score at home (100% record last season) and with them usually scoring 2 goals a match this looks a formality.

If you look at the odds on betfair, there is no real point backing Barca but we should be able to get a reasonable price from the over 2.5 goals market inplay during the 1st half. So we will be backing over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal.

If we don't see one before HT we will follow our usual trade out plan on the goals trade. If 3 look likely in the 2nd half and your concerned get back in to minimise your loss.

If Barca go behind early on (could happen but not likely) we will look to back them and trade out after they equalise.

Our Trading Result:
Fairly obvious this one with Barca convincingly winning. We managed to get £75 of the £100 we were looking to get on as the 1st goal came a little too early for us get the full stake on. We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 1.48 and traded out at 1.2 after the goal for £19 profit if the game finished over 2.5 as expected.


Profit made on this trade = £19



Date: 14/08/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: York V Wrexham : 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
This is the 1st time we have seen Wrexham outside the football league and if their opening game against Stevenage is anything to go by (won 5-0) York will need a 10 man defence to stop them from scoring. Jokes aside York will be a tougher test as they had a good preseason and looked strong in their opening win against Crawley. Historically when these two have met the draw is very dominant with the last 4 matches finishing 1-1, under 2.5 is also a feature, with the last 7 with York at home finished under 3 goals (no 0-0's though). Wrexham have been playing a higher standard of football for the last few seasons so we feel they might edge it here and with both teams playing for the win as we usually see in the Blue Square Premier we might see the trend for low goals ending here.

As long as we have a goal we should be safe to lay the draw here as the odds are very similar, trading out after a goal from either team. Please feel free to stagger your stake for better value. We will also have a side trade on over 2.5 in play during the 1st half.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals as a side bet inplay at average odds of 2.6. No goals before HT so we traded out for no loss on under 2.5 as usual. Game was very even as expected with York taking the lead after we traded out with £95 at 1.8 with the loss on the draw. No futher goals so a token £5 overall.

We are now 42 games without a 0-0 draw !


Profit made on this trade = £19



Date: 15/08/08
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Allsvenskan
Teams: Hammarby V GAIS : 2 - 4

Our Recommendation:
Hammarby are currently in 4th place, undefeated in 10 matches and haven't lost at home all season. They won't want to take their foot off the gas in this encounter as they are on target for a champions league spot. The only negative thing we can say about them is they have an issue keeping a clean sheet with only 1 in the last 8 matches but on a positive side they been scoring well since May. They should avoid conceding more than 1 against GAIS as they have looked disappointing so far up front.

GAIS are currently 9th and are having a pretty poor season, especially on the road, without a win since October last year. This season they been playing very defensively with one of the better records so should make it tough for Hammarby to break down initially but go on to conceed. We do feel Hammarby will avoid defeat here which is supported by their H2H history with GAIS losing all encounters this Millennium when Hammarby have been playing at home. The last 3 of these encounters delivered a whopping 14 goals so the goals market will hopefully make a good trade in play.

We will be backing Hammarby in play and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's we will back them again to get higher average odds so hopefully we can trade out after they equalise. After this point we will concider laying GAIS if they are ahead. We will also look to back over 2.5 goals inplay, trading out after a goal in the 1st half. Please feel free to stagger your stake on these trades for better value.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Hammarby at average odds of 1.73 and managed to get just £12 on over 2.5 goals before they opened the scoring. After they scored we traded out at 1.25 on the win bet with £130 and 1.53 with £15 on the goals bet so overall £35. Glad we are traders as GAIS performed a miracle in the 2nd half scoring 3 in the last 15 min's.


Profit made on this trade = £35



Date: 16/08/08
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Arsenal V West Brom : 1 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Arsenal were unbeaten at home last season, whilst West Brom were inconsistent on their travels. A feature of Arsenals Home games is their ability to score (over 20 consecutive home games) hitting the backing of the net 1st in just under 80% of matches. If their pre-season is anything to to go by they look ready for the challenges ahead. West Brom's preseason was almost embarrassing for a Premiership side so they will need to improve pretty quickly. Both teams play an open,  attacking game, so this should be end to end with the chance of a few goals. Whilst we expect Albion to give it a good go, we can't see them winning here but they might score as they have done in all but one of their previous H2H meetings this millennium. Whilst Arsenal score most of their goals in the last 20 min's we feel they will be on the score sheet in the 1st half so will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake.

Our Trading Result:
We only got £10 on this one at 1.82 as the goal came far too early for us. After Arsenal scored we traded out with £12 at 1.38. The game finished under 2.5 so the smaller profit £2



Profit made on this trade = £2



Date: 16/08/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Middlesbrough V Tottenham : 2 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Last season Middlesbrough were very strong during the 1st half managing to remain unbeaten in the last 12. Spurs were practically the opposite of this leading in only about a 20% of away games on their travels at the break. We are expecting this trend to be broken here as Boro are in limbo in defence which has left them with a few rookies playing. They will take confidence in their new super striker Afonso Alves but they are very likely to concede early on with Ramos putting on the pressure to test the inexperienced defence. Considering both teams pre-season, both teams come into this match after convincing wins.

This could go either way and we are pretty confident both teams will score. We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We also like the chance of a 1st half goal so will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market.

Usual trade out plan for the draw and goals bet if things don't go our way.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.35 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.86. No goal before HT so we traded out at 5.1 on the goals bet for no loss on under as always. Middlesbrough should have been 2 up at this point so we were pretty confident they would score (lots of members layed Spurs around HT, we didn't as its not in the preview). Dave Wheater opened the scoring for Boro 71 min's in which just so happened to be when the odds were at 1.8 (our usual trade out point if things go against us). We got £44 matched before the game went suspended. After it returned to inplay we traded a further £50 out leaving a small profit of £6 on win and a minimised loss on the draw. About 4 min's to go Mido secured the win so we thought we were safe until Spurs grabbed one back through a Rob Huth o.g. in injury time. The 1st time in about 5 months this has happened but sometimes it goes against us. overall a loss off £106



Profit made on this trade =
-£106


Date: 17/08/08
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams: Mönchengladbach V Stuttgart : 1 - 3

Our Recommendation:
We welcome 2nd division champions Mönchengladbach back in the top flight for this encounter. Historically newly promoted teams have a few issues keeping a clean sheet in their 1st match so expect them to concede here. Stuttgart finished off the season with lots of defensive errors which lead to their last 5 games of the season finishing over 4 goals. They have still been making these errors in their preseason games so we expect Mönchengladbach to get on the scoresheet. These two have met many times with Stuttgart avoiding defeat in 87% of meetings. Goals are always on the agenda so we should be safe here to lay the draw and trade out after a goal. We have been chatting with one of our Germany pals who told us he expects Mönchengladbach to be on the scoresheet early so we will support this by backing over 2.5 goals as a side trade inplay during the 1st half.

We will follow our usual plan on the draw trade and goals bet if things go wrong.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.4 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.18 with £18 of the £50 we were looking to get on. Fairly obvious difference in ability with Stuttgart taking the lead after 15 mins for us to trade out on both bets. We got out at 4.1 with £82 on the draw bet and 1.41 with £25 on the goals bet for £27 overall.


Profit made on this trade =
£27


Date: 17/08/08
Time: 16.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Allsvenskan
Teams: Helsingborg V Ljungskile : 0 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Whilst we picked the Kalmar game 1st this came a close 2nd. The difference in form is probably greater between these two. Helsingborg are still unbeaten at home winning the last 6 convincingly. They slipped up on the road last week but won't want another loss as their are a few teams hot on their heels for a Champions League spot. We have definitely seen them improve in recent weeks and can't fault their scoring. They have a similar issue to Kalmar with conceding but will take confidence in that they have never conceded a goal against Ljungskile and have a 100% win record over them. Their isn't much to say about Ljungskile other than they are sitting 2nd from bottom with 1 win in the last 10 games. On the road they have the leagues worst defensive record and because of this 90% of their away games have finished over 2.5, which just so happens to be our preferred trade here.

So we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half and trading out after a goal. If we don't see one before HT we will trade out for no loss on under as usual. Back in if concerned a 3rd is on its way in the 2nd half.

Our Trading Result:
Anyone who watched this would have seen a highly motivated Ljungskile fight Helsingborg hard for 90 min's. Far from what was expected. It looks like this is the point in the season where bottom teams fight for survival. Anyway we backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 1.86 after the market had formed. No goals before HT so we traded out at average odds of 3.57 by laying over 2.5 as usual. Ljungskile scored the 1 and only goal 56 mins in this meant we finished the match with no loss.



Profit made on this trade =
£0


Date: 17/08/08
Time: 17.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Allsvenskan
Teams: Kalmar V Orebro : 2 - 2

Our Recommendation:
For those who have been following the Swedish season you will know league leaders Kalmar have been very impressive at home. Undefeated winning 9 of the last 10 and scoring an average of 2.8 goals a game. They aren't invincible because their style of attacking play leaves them open to counter attack and they have conceded in their last 9 games but they do have a great ability of pulling it back after going behind. Orebro have improved in recent weeks but are yet to defeat a top 4 team this season and haven't showed the ability to do so. H2H Kalmar have won the last 3 meetings and look like doing it again here. They definitely can't afford to lose with only 1 point separating them from 2nd place Elfsborg so we should see a strong performance for them. We should see them on the score sheet early as this has happened in all their home games this season. We won't be surprised if Orebro score so we should see the scoreline finish over 2.5 as Kalmar rarely draw at home.

For us we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay and trading out after a goal. We also feel backing Kalmar will pay off so will look to do this inplay. If they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's we will look to back them again trading out after they equalise. Later in the game if Orebro open the scoring we will consider laying them as we expect Kalmar to pull it back.
If we don't see a goal before HT we will trade out for no loss on under 2.5 by laying using the same stake. Back in if we are concerned a 3rd is on its way.


Our Trading Result:
Kalmar seriously need to improve their defence! We backed Kalmar at 1.45 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 1.82. As expected they took the lead after 29 mins for us to trade out at 1.18 with £115 on the back bet and 1.52 with £115 on the goals bet. As they failed to win we took the smaller profit of £35.


Profit made on this trade =
£35


Date: 18/08/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Torquay V Ebbsfleet Utd : 0 - 2

Our Recommendation:
The season might of just kicked off but from early signs both teams have started where they left off. Torquay seemed to have remained sharp in front of the goal mouth so they should continue their decent home scoring record, especially against bottom half teams. Ebbsfleet still seem to have the same defensive issues conceding an average of 2 goals a game this season and the last 10 away matches of the previous season. These two have met a few times in recent years with both winning the respective home games. All their previous meetings have finished over 2.5 goals which is what we feel you will see again here. Torquay seem to have the pick of their strongest team coming into this match whilst we are expecting Ebbsfleet to do some reorganisation especially up front. Considering both teams start and the fact Ebbsfleet can't keep a clean sheet and have only won 1 away game in the last 10 outings we should see Torquay win here.

Rather than back Torquay we prefer to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal. Please feel free to chase value. A side trade on the over 2.5 goals bet would have paid off in all their previous meetings so this will give us some cover if Ebbsfleet open the scoring early.


Our Trading Result:
We chased the lay price down to get average of 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.3. Ebbsfleet's changes definately went in their favour enabling them to take the lead after 25 mins. This enabled us to trade out at 3.55 with £97 on the draw bet and £68 at 1.63 on the goals bet for the smaller profit of £20 because the score finished under 2.5.


Profit made on this trade =
£20


Date: 19/08/08
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: International
Teams: Australia V South Africa : 2 - 2

Our Recommendation:
Hardly the best known football nations but Australia take on South Africa at Loftus Road in this International encounter. With players such as Mark Viduka, Harry Kewell, Tim Cahill and Lucas Neill all playing for Australia its going to be a tough challenge for the South Africans. Benni McCarthy, the Blackburn striker is South Africa’s top scorer, with 30 goals to his name and Steven Pienaar, Everton’s midfielder will be added to the Premier League quality on show. These two have met 19 times before with 3 of the last 5 going to Australia the other two finishing in a draw and a home win to South Africa. All these matches had a 1st half goal which should happen again here with the relevant firepower, and South Africa's poor defensive record.

We shouldn't need to worry about it finishing goalless as they have had a goal in all their previous meetings. International matches make us a little nervous so we will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal rather than backing the Socceroos. As mentioned we are expecting a 1st half goal so will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half. Please feel free to stagger your stake on these bets for better value.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.4 and back over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.62. Against the run of play South Africa took the lead 21 min's in for us to trade out on both bets. We got out at 3.55 on the draw with £96 and 1.71 with £65 on the goals bet so overall £37. If was fairly obvious at this point Australia would equalise so lots of members backed them trading out after they equalised. We stuck to the preview.



Profit made on this trade =
£37


Date: 20/08/08
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: International
Teams: Germany V Belgium: 2 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Ok you don't need to be a rocket scientist to know why we have picked this one. Germany admittedly don't always perform in friendly's but when the ranking difference is so different we very rarely see an upset. Historically they have a strong record over Belgium, winning the last 6. The other main feature of their H2H meetings is a 1st half goal, with 20 of the last 22 seeing the deadlock broken in the 1st half and a large majority finish over 2.5 goals. Both teams will be using this as a warm up for the World Cup qualifiers so we should see so new faces and probably a few mistakes. The biggest changes will be with the Belgium team as most of their players are still at the Olympics (only European side left in) we might see them revert back to the old guard.

For us we will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half and backing Germany trading out after a goal. Please feel free to stagger your stake for value as the odds are quite short on both bets. If Germany go behind in the 1st 30 min's we will look to back them again and trade out after they equalise. After this point if they go behind we will consider laying Belgium as they should pull it back. A word of warning, if by any chance they look poor give it some time before backing them again/laying Belgium or leave it alone.

Usual trade out plan on the over 2.5 goals bet if we don't see a 1st half goal. Back in if 3 look likely in the 2nd half.

Our Trading Result:
We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.16 and backed Germany at 1.44. No goals in the 1st half despite Germany looking like scoring so we traded out at 3.85 on the goals bet for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 as usual, just before HT. The 1st 15 min's of the 2nd half had us convinced that Germany would score soon so weren't surprised when the opened the scoring through a penalty 59 min's in. This enabled us to trade out on the back bet at 1.12 with £50 for £15 should they go onto win. The dreaded 2nd goal came 77 min's in so a difficult decision. In general we would let the bet run with this amount of time left and a team having a 2 goal buffer because they tend to defend the lead rather than go for another goal but lots of members highlighted they were concerned so we decided to get back in. We got back in with £50 staggering our stake so overall we had average odds of 2.6 and a loss of £50 on both options. We preferred a £35 loss here rather than risking a much larger one. Feedback from members after the match is most decided to hold out after their initial concern so ended in a profit.



Profit made on this trade =
-£35


Date: 21/08/08
Time: 17.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Swedish Cup
Teams: Hammarby V Kalmar : 0 - 0

Our Recommendation:
Another trade with Kalmar involved but for good reason. They score over 2 goals a games in most matches with a large majority of these coming early on. The last 10 games they have played have seen both teams scoring (most opponent scoring twice) which highlights they can't keep a clean sheet in their current vain of form. Against Hammarby its likely to be a tough match as both teams are of a similar standard but Kalmar have the better H2H history winning 5 of the last 6, they should definitely concede though. They met earlier in the season before Kalmar found their scoring boots which ended in a 1-0 win to Kalmar. We shouldn't see a repeat of this score line here as Kalmar have looked very vulnerable defensively for about 3 months but seem to rather try and out score their opponents than fix their defensive problems. If we tell you that 48 goals have been scored in their last 10 games, I'm sure you understand what we are talking about. As this match is a cup game it could go either way but we should be able to lay the draw here and trade out after a goal from either team stagger our stake for value. The over 2.5 goals market is a consideration as usual inplay during the 1st half as a side bet.

Usual trade out plan if things go wrong.

The 0-0 correct score is their for those are concerned the game is going to finish goalless to minimise liability. We probably won't consider this.

Our Trading Result:
This match result was the biggest shock we have in 12 months. Basically we layed the draw at average odds of 3.45 and backed over 2.5 goals inplay at average odds of 2.2 with £25, as it started fairly tight not wanting to risk the full side stake of £50. We nearly had a few goals but unfortunately we went into the break so we traded out at average odds of 4.6 for no loss on under 2.5 as usual by laying over 2.5. The game opened up in the 2nd half but no goal came before our usual cut you loss point of 1.8 on the draw so we traded out with the loss on the draw expecting either team to score in the last 20 min's. To our surprise and most members it finished goalless.

If we hadn't mentioned in the preview we were probably not going to get involved in the 0-0 we would have in the last 10 min's. We advised all that contacted us to back the 0-0 so these members would have minimised any loss.

On a positive note we normally go on a winning streak at this point so fingers crossed we will look to recover this over the next few days.


Profit made on this trade =
-£160


Date: 22/08/08
Time: 19.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams: Hannover 96 V Cottbus : 0 - 0

Our Recommendation:
We saw both of these teams lose their opening games but Hannover were more unlucky than poor. Cottbus were beaten by newly promoted Hoffenhiem which was rather unexpected but they were very poor on the night. Hannover had solid form at home last season ending the campaign with only 1 loss in the last 10 and no losses in the last 10 against teams outside the top 4. Cottbus have a poor record on their travels picking up just 1 win in the last 20. Against the better home teams they frequently concede which is what we expect to see here especially as Hannover had more +2.5 goals home games than the other teams in the league last season. H2H is strongly in favour of Hannover with 4 of the last 5 going to the home team. Key points to note here. There are no draws between them going back 10 years and no goalless matches. Lets hope lady luck is on our side tonight. We will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half and backing Hannover as a small side trade in play if they look the dominant side as expected. Obviously consider staggering your stake if you want to get in fairly early on these trades.

If we don't see a goal we will trade out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 by laying over with the same stake as usual. Back in if concerned in the 2nd half a 3rd is on its way.

If Hannover go behind early on and look like equalising, you can consider backing them for higher average odds, trading out after they draw level.

The 0-0 is there for your consideration inplay or a little cover before hand if your concerned it might finish goalless.

Our Trading Result:
Because of yesterday we were flooded with emails about backing the 0-0 here. We advised all that contacted us that it made sence to back the 0-0 at the 16.5 that was available just incase, as it seemed good value. If they wanted to wait HT would be a good option. Most backed it with £10-£15, we put just £5 on at 16.5. The game was pretty poor with us staggering our stake quite late on the goals bet getting 2.91 matched at average odds. We didn't back Hannover until late in the 1st half getting 1.8 matched at average odds with £25 as either team looked like scoring earlier on. At HT we traded out at average odds of 4.3 for no loss on under 2.5 on the goals bet as usual. A few nail biting moments near the end of the match but it finished goalless so we had a £25 loss on the back bet, no loss on the goals bet and £73 on the 0-0 result so overall £48.


Profit made on this trade =
£48


Date: 23/08/08
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Championship
Teams: Charlton V Reading : 4 - 2

Our Recommendation:
Charlton have scored in their last 15 consecutive home games but most have been low scoring. Reading have keep it tight on the road in their most recent away games so are likely to keep the score low here. The last time they met both teams were playing premiership football and Reading were chasing a Uefa Cup, how things change. We feel both teams will score here but not sure if we will see a winner but it should'nt be a goalless meeting.

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal whoever scores. A small stake on the 0-0 should be a consideration here before kick off.

We will have a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay during the 1st half. If we don't see a 1st half goal we will trade out at HT for no loss on under 2.5 as usual by laying over 2.5 with the same stake. Back in if a 3rd looks likely in the 2nd half. Usual trade out at 1.8 if the match is goalless when the odds reach this point.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at 3.2 and backed over 2.5 goals inplay at average odds of 2.96. Matt Holland opened the scoring at the perfect time for us to trade out on both bets. We got out at 4 on the draw with £78 and 1.9 on the goals bet with £65 so overall £48 as we put £10 on the 0-0 correct score at 11.0 just incase, but obviously no need. Great game!


Profit made on this trade =
£48


Date: 23/08/08
Time: 14.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams:Stuttgart V Leverkusen : 0 - 2

Our Recommendation:
Well if stats mean anything this match should finish over 2.5 goals. 9 of the last 10 Stuttgart home games finished over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring in 8 of the last 10. Leverkusen defensively were pretty poor last season, although had no issues scoring but did conceding 20 goals in their last 10 away games. We feel Stuttgart's will avoid defeat in this one and more than likely win as their midfield looked truly dominating in their recent win over newly promoted Mönchengladbach. Compared to Leverkusen looking like they need another 3/4 games before they are up and running. We should see both teams score though and a winner as the last 15 H2H meetings with Stuttgart at home has seen one of the teams taking 3 points. A goal inside 30 min's is also quite common.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. If you want to chase value please feel free as always. The 0-0 is available at 18 so a small stake on this makes sense (we will be opting for a little cover for the next few weeks on most games). The over 2.5 goals market is an obvious choice as a side trade for those who are interested inplay during the 1st half.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.55 and backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.06. We also put £5 on the 0-0 at 19.0. Leverkusen seemed to have sharpened up in a matter of a few days here. They took the lead after 35 mins for us to trade out on both bets. We got out with £102 for a small loss on the draw bet at 3.5 and 1.63 on the goals bet with £63 for £12 profit. So overall £7 profit.


Profit made on this trade =
£7


Date: 23/08/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Stoke V Aston Villa : 3 - 2

Our Recommendation:
These two have met quite a few times but all the league games were before 1923 so no real recent history. We are not going to beat around the bush with this one. Basically Stoke's defense was embarrassing last week against a very average Bolton performance committing school boy errors left, right and centre. Not something they can afford to do against a team with the Premiership's 2nd best scoring record last season. Although Stoke were encouraging when in Bolton's half last week they are highly unlikely to contain the superb offensive duo of Gabby and Ashley Young. John Carew looks like he might also make a show so we see Villa winning here and on the score sheet fairly early.

We will be backing Villa and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind inside the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again so we can trade out after they equalise. Don't do this until they look like pulling it back. We also like the over 2.5 goals market here so will have a side trade on this inplay during the 1st half.

We don't think you will need it for this one but a small side bet on the 0-0 is there for your consideration.

Same trade out plan on the goals bet as usual if things go wrong, back in if 3 look likely in the 2nd half.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Villa at 1.86 and over 2.5 goals at average odd of 2.34. The opening goal came from Stoke through a converted penalty for us to trade out on the goals bet at 1.67 with £65. We then decided to wait as Villa didn't give us confidence they would equalise until later in the game. We advised all that asked us to wait until the 2nd half also. The 2nd half kicked off with a decent level of posession from Villa with us finally getting back in on them at 5.8 which gave us higher average odds. They drew level as expected for us to trade out at 2.6 weighting the profit towards the Villa win. Unfortunatley the match finished 3-2 to Stoke with a goal in the dying seconds so a much smaller profit of £69.


Profit made on this trade =
£69


Date: 23/08/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams:Tottenham V Sunderland : 1 - 2

Our Recommendation:
Tottenham and Sunderland both had successful pre-seasons, with Spurs undefeated and Sunderland losing only once to Ajax, before they both come a cropper in the season opener. Whilst we expected Sunderland to lose to Liverpool we didn't expect Spurs to fall at the 1st hurdle after such a successful pre-season. Lets hope they can bounce back in this home match and continue their amazing home scoring record from last season. The last 7 times these two have met at White Hart Lane Tottenham have won so we should see this continue but Sunderland won't make it easy for them. We aren't 100% happy with Spurs price so prefer the goals market here so will be backing over 2.5 goals inplay during the 1st half and trading out after a goal. If you fancy a small side bet on Spurs feel free if they look dominant once the the odds have dirfted a little or if they go