August 2007
trading advice given
Profit for Month = £458
Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
15th August |
Wigan v Middlesbrough |
1-0 |
£20 |
18th August |
Portsmouth v Bolton |
3-1 |
£95 |
19th August |
Liverpool v Chelsea |
1-1 |
£19 |
20th August |
Exeter v York City |
1-1 |
£28 |
21st August |
Italy U21 V France U21 |
2-1 |
£63 |
22nd August |
Norway V Argentina |
2-1 |
- £95 |
22nd August |
England V Germany |
1-2 |
£41 |
23rd August |
Weymouth V Burton |
1-2 |
£95 |
25th August |
Sunderland V Liverpool |
0-2 |
£5 |
25th August |
Aston Villa V Fulham |
2-1 |
£55 |
25th August |
Everton V Blackburn |
1-1 |
£20 |
26th August |
Middlesborough V Newcastle |
2-2 |
£78 |
27th August |
AGF V Lyngby |
0-0 |
- £100 |
28th August |
Liverpool V Toulouse |
4-0 |
£71 |
29th August |
Arsenal V Sparta Prague |
3-0 |
£42 |
30th August |
Blackburn V Mypa |
2-0 |
£0 |
31st August |
AC Milan V Sevilla |
3-1 |
£21 |
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Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 15th August |
| Time: 7.45pm |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Wigan v Middlesbrough - SCORE: 1-0 |
Our Recommendation:
Wigan v Middlesbrough In their previous meetings neither team have kept a clean sheet so we are hoping for a goal or two. Neither team are considered good defensively so we should be given the opportunity to trade out. As they are fairly evenly matched it wont matter who scores. We will be looking to lay the draw at around 3.35 then looking to trade out after the first goal is scored. |
Our Trading Result:
Got the lay bet on at 3.35. First and only goal came early into the second half. Took some early money and got out at 4.4 with a £80 back bet giving us a £20 profit. Admittedly we could have waited for better odds, but as it was the first trade of the season we wanted a positive figure on the board. |
Profit made on this trade = £20
|
| Date: 18th August |
| Time: 12.45pm |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Portsmouth v Bolton - SCORE: 3-1 |
Our Recommendation:
Harry Redknapp has developed a knack of solid early season Premiership home form at Portsmouth. With Bolton coming off a midweek away loss, and they do like sequential away losses.
We will be backing over 2.5 goals at 2.30 ish and looking to take trade out after a goal. |
Our Trading Result:
Got the back bet on at 2.30. Two goals in 16 min's! It doesn’t get much better. We traded out at 1.30 for £95 profit! Again if we had hung in there we could have taken £130 as another goal came after 30 min's. |
Profit made on this trade = £95
|
| Date: 19th August |
| Time: 16.00pm |
| Fixture: Premiership |
| Teams: Liverpool v Chelsea - SCORE: 1-1 |
Our Recommendation:
In 8 of 12 Chelsea away matches against the other Big Four there has been a goal within 30 min's. An early goal is also supported by the games Liverpool have played this early on against the previous season’s top four as 7 of 10 have had a goal within the half hour. We don’t want to call the result here so we will be laying the draw at around 3.3 and trading out when the odds are in our favour. |
Our Trading Result:
Got the Lay bet on at 3.2 it was even shorter just before the off.
We didn't have to wait for 30 min's for a goal did we! I hope you all got out at the same time as us. We traded out at 4.2 spreading the money evenly across all scenario's for a nice little profit on the draw. |
Profit made on this trade = £19
|
| Date: 20th August |
| Time: 19.45pm |
| Fixture: English Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Exeter v York City - SCORE: 1-1 |
Our Recommendation:
Exeter are on a high after winning their opening two matches. They really are a contender for promotion this year and should be a one to watch. We will be backing the Exeter win at 2.06 this morning. Then looking to trade out when Exeter take the lead (hopefully scoring first). I would advise you to use a smaller stake as the liquidity is not there currently in the market we used £50 instead of £100 now and then tonight before kick off we will put the other £50 of our £100 stake on (obviously only if there is money in the market). |
Our Trading Result:
Plenty of money around just before the off. We got average odds for our £100 of 2.02 backing Exeter for the win. The trade out opportunity came just before half time at 1.5. We put £130 on the lay and weighted it slightly towards an Exeter win so only £28 for us due to the late goal by York. |
Profit made on this trade = £28
|
| Date: 21st August |
| Time: 20.00pm |
| Fixture: U21's International |
| Teams: Italy U21 V France U21 - SCORE: 2-1 |
Our Recommendation:
Both teams have some superb players. Despite Italy being favorites we feel France still could pull one out of the bag. So we are going to lay the draw around 3.4 and trade out after the first goal. Ideally Italy will score first as this will drive the back odds slightly higher than if France score first. Either way you will be able to trade out for a profit. ( please ensure there is enough money in the market before getting involved, you will know just before the off) |
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.3 just before the off. We were a little concerned about trading out but felt the money would be there once someone scored. Just before half time Italy scored and gave us a chance to get out. We were just about to put the back bet on and BANG Italy score again!!! Managed to get matched at 9.6 couldn't believe it! Traded out with £34 quid spreading the profit across all options.
|
Profit made on this trade = £63
|
| Date: 22nd August |
| Time:18.00pm |
| Fixture: International Friendly |
| Teams: Norway V Argentina - SCORE: 2-1 |
Our Recommendation:
Argentina are fielding a strong team with a highly competent strike force including Messi, which could be very dangerous. In comparison Norway have been struggling internationally for a while and only have a few strong players. We will be backing Argentina at around 1.95 to win and trading out once they take the lead. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 2.1 just before the off. Then it all started to go wrong! Argentina gave away a penalty after 12 min's which was complimented by another goal around the same time in the second half. This basically gave us no opportunity to trade out, so our first loss of the season.
|
Profit made on this trade = - £95
|
| Date: 22nd August |
| Time: 20.00pm |
| Fixture: International Friendly |
| Teams: England V Germany - SCORE: 1-2 |
Our Recommendation:
This will be an interesting one. Both teams are suffering with injury problems and with it being the first International match for England this season, we are sure there will be plenty of mistakes and opportunities. We don't fancy calling the winner on this one so we will be laying the draw around 3.3 and backing when someone scores and the odds move in our favour. Hopefully it will be England as they have the better price on Betfair |
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 3.05 a few min's before kick off. 9 min's later Lampard scores a blinder driving the back odds up to 4.6 giving us our trade out with £57. On the back of England's start we weighted the win and lucky for us it didn't end in a draw.
|
Profit made on this trade = £41
|
| Date: 23rd August |
| Time: 19.45pm |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Weymouth V Burton - SCORE: 1-2 |
Our Recommendation:
We do love these 'conference' matches. Last season only 7% of matches in this league finished in a 0-0 draw. These teams had good scoring averages last season with Weymouth only failing to score at home 4% of the time. On the back of this they were also poor defensively, especially Weymouth. On betfair they are evenly match so we will be looking to back over 2.5 goals at around 2.0 and lay over 2.5 goals when the odds are in our favour. Please check the money in the market before getting involved as being a Conference match it could be a little thin on the ground.
|
Our Trading Result:
Got on as the match turned inplay with odds of 1.96. Weymouth scored first after twenty min's. We knew Burton would follow up and they did with two in quick concession just before half time. No need to trade out we win the bet.
|
Profit made on this trade = £95
|
| Date: 25th August |
| Time: 12.45pm |
| Fixture: Barclays Premiership |
| Teams: Sunderland V Liverpool - SCORE: 0-2 |
Our Recommendation:
53% of Liverpool's last 15 away games against promoted teams have had +2.5 goals, two other matches had +3.5 and only four -1.5.
55% of games where promoted teams are playing a previous season’s top four finisher have ended +2.5 goals. So quite obviously we are going to back over 2.5 goals at around 2.25 on Betfair and looking to trade out after a goal or two are scored. If they come early might be worth waiting for the third.
|
Our Trading Result:
Got the back bet on at 2.4, five minutes before the off. We had to wait longer than anticipated for the first goal, it came after 37mins by Liverpool's Sissoko. Odds on the lay side dropped to 2.22 and we managed to get matched for average odds of 2.3 with £105 on the lay, spreading the small profit across both scenarios.
|
Profit made on this trade = £5
|
| Date: 25th August |
| Time: 15.00pm |
| Fixture: Barclays Premiership |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Fulham - SCORE: 2-1 |
Our Recommendation:
Based on where the two are likely to finish in the table – Villa 5th to 10th and Fulham bottom-half, and how both teams have fared against their respective groups, all points to a Villa win here. We will be backing Villa at around 1.85 and trading out once they take the lead. If Fulham score don't worry to much as the last 13 times that Fulham have scored first on the road, they’ve failed to win.
|
Our Trading Result:
Got matched at a very short 1.63 but being Villa supporters we still got involved. I'm glad we were right about 'Fulham losing once they score first on the road' admittedly it was in the dying seconds. We traded out at 1.1 with £100 on the Villa win. Lots of members let it run for more profit as it was in injury time.
|
Profit made on this trade = £55
|
| Date: 25th August |
| Time: 17.15pm |
| Fixture: Barclays Premiership |
| Teams: Everton V Blackburn - SCORE: 1-1 |
Our Recommendation:
Blackburn have kept clean sheets in only three of their first five away games going back to the 03/04 season and 13/20 have had +2.5 goals. Everton failed to score at Goodison in only two home games last season. With no draws in Everton’s recent games with their current home form or against that of the away team, we are going to lay the draw at around 3.4 and trade out once a goal is scored. The odds are slightly in Everton's favour so ideally they will score first but either should give you an opportunity to trade out.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got out Lay bet matched at 3.3. 15 min's later Blackburn scored and we traded out as it turned inplay getting 4.1 matched with a £80 back bet (4.4 was available). This gave us £20 across all options.
Not bad for 15mins work!
|
Profit made on this trade = £20
|
| Date: 26th August |
| Time: 13.30pm |
| Fixture: Barclays Premiership |
| Teams: Middlesborough V Newcastle - SCORE: 2-2 |
Our Recommendation:
75% of Middlesborough's home games have had a first-half goal and 80% of those have finished over 2.5 goals. Middlesborough also have a good record of scoring in the second-half and with 9 of the last 10 at Riverside having a goal in final 20 min's, we think the conditions are ideal to back +2.5 goals and trade out when the odds are in your favour. If a goal comes early it might be worth hanging on for another. Its up to you.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.3. Newcastle scored after 22 min's followed shortly by another 6 min's later. Two trade out opportunities were available 1.89 and 1.22. We decided to hang on until half time for another. Unfortunately it didn't come so we traded out at 1.4 with £130 weighted towards the over 2.5 goals which gave us £78 profit due to the end result. Those members that listened to our recommendation regarding Middlesborough's late scoring record walked away with £130.
|
Profit made on this trade = £78
|
| Date: 27th August |
| Time: 18.00pm |
| Fixture: Superligaen (Denmark) |
| Teams: AGF V Lyngby - SCORE: 0-0 |
Our Recommendation:
Lyngby's playing record against poor teams over the last 3 seasons is very good. They have won 82% of them, their only downfall is they let a lot of goals in (13 in the last 6 Games). In comparison AGF have lost their last four home games but are slightly better defensively. Looking at recent results of these teams 73% of games have ended +2.5 goals. So we are going to back over 2.5 goals at around 1.8 on Betfair and trade out after a goal or two. Please check the money is there before getting involved.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched 5 min's before the start at 1.76. The teams played very defensively completely different to their last 2 meetings which finished 4-2 and 4-1. Unfortunately no profitable trade out opportunities.
|
Profit made on this trade = - £100
|
| Date: 28th August |
| Time: 20.05pm |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Liverpool V Toulouse - SCORE: 4-0 |
Our Recommendation:
Liverpool hold a 1-0 lead going into this one, this isn't enough of a lead to sit back and relax so we should see a good attacking performance from the Reds until another goal is scored. There is no value in backing Liverpool to win currently 1.36 on Betfair and to lay the draw the liability is to high. So we are going to back over 2.5 goals at around 2.08 and trade out after a goal or two depending how early they come.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at better than expected odds of 2.16. Liverpool played superb scoring after 18 min's with another 7 or so good chances in the first half. We waited for another goal which was obviously on its way, it came just after half time so we traded out at 1.4 with the weight of the money on +2.5. Those of you who wanted to recoup yesterdays loss by riding it out were rewarded by £116 back in the bank. |
Profit made on this trade = £71
|
| Date: 29th August |
| Time: 20.05pm |
| Fixture: Champions League |
| Teams: Arsenal V Sparta Prague - SCORE: 3-0 |
Our Recommendation:
Arsenal hold an invaluable advantage with 2 away goals and a clean sheet. Sparta will be forced to come out of the blocks so might grab the first goal. Should Arsenal's finishing be up to scratch, it should be a comfortable win. Hopefully this can be the game Eduardo gets his debut goal as well. The odds only support us backing over 2.5 goals (currently 1.94 on Betfair), similar situation to yesterdays Liverpool game, so after a goal or two trade out.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at odds of 2.02. Rosicky scored for Arsenal after only 8 min's the odds dropped to a ridiculous 1.35 giving us better odds than Liverpool's game yesterday after two goals.This was an ideal opportunity to get out especially now they were 3-0 up on aggregate and likely to tighten up at the back with 3 goals to sit on. We spread the profit equally across both options with a £144 lay bet giving us £42 profit. Those who stayed in took over £100 profit. |
Profit made on this trade = £42
|
| Date: 30th August |
| Time: 20.05pm |
| Fixture: UEFA Cup |
| Teams :Blackburn V Mypa - SCORE: 2-0 |
Our Recommendation:
Blackburn will feel confident going into this return leg with an away goal lead to their name. Strangely for them they did not extend their lead when for most of the game they were in control of their Finnish opponents. The home crowd will expect a lot more from the players who should have the quality to make this a more emphatic victory and seal their progress into the next round. We will be backing over 2.5 goals once they have drifted to at least 1.75, as their is no real value in getting involved at the current available odds on Betfair. (If a goal is scored before they drift we won't be placing a bet). Then we will be laying over 2.5 once a goal or two are scored, depending on the odds.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at odds of 1.83, 18 min's in. The market was up and down due to the chances at the start. The rest of the first half gave us deja vu of the 1st leg and concern about trading out. Lucky after 47 min’s we were given the opportunity to trade out with odds of 2.1 and £100 to stop any loss. Unfortunately no profit but sometimes you have to minimise your losses. From the emails we received from members after the first goal it looks like they had the same opinion. |
Profit made on this trade = £0
|
| Date: 31st August |
| Time: 19.45pm |
| Fixture: UEFA Super Cup |
| Teams : AC Milan V Sevilla - SCORE: 3-1 |
Our Recommendation:
This game will be the first official match played between the two teams. Sevilla come to Monaco as Super Cup defending champions after winning the 2007 edition with 3-0 against Barcelona. As last year, Sevilla is playing this final from the position of Uefa Cup Winners, while AC Milan have qualified for the Super Cup after winning the Champions League against Liverpool in May this year. We feel that Sevilla will win this as they are wanting to dedicate this trophy to Antonio Puerta, this will be a very important motivation for the Spanish side. On paper they are very evenly matched so we feel the best option is to lay the draw around 3.3 and trade out after a goal.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at odds of 3.4. 14 Min's in Renato scored for Sevilla and gave us our trade out opportunity. The odds took a while to drift, so we had our fingers crossed until they reached our desired odds of 4.3. We then split the profit across all options for £21 whatever the outcome. A nice finish to August. |
Profit made on this trade = £21
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