Traders Advantage Results

April 2008 trading advice given

Profit for Month = £890

Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed results table below)

Date
Teams
Score
Profit
01/04/08
Roma V Manchester Utd
0 - 2
£24
02/04/08
Arsenal V Liverpool
1 - 1
£29
03/04/08
Rangers V Sp Lisbon
0 - 0
- £108
05/04/08
Arsenal V Liverpool
1 - 1
£36
05/04/08
Aston Villa V Bolton
4 - 0
£34
05/04/08
Roma V Genoa
3 - 2
£36
06/04/08
Real Zaragoza V Real Betis
0 - 3
£21
06/04/08
Sevilla V Villareal
2 - 0
£20
07/04/08
Aberdeen V Falk irk
2 - 1
£24
08/04/08
West Ham V Portsmouth
0 - 1
£24
09/04/08
Manchester Utd V Roma
1 - 0
£71
10/04/08
SP Lisbon V Rangers
0 - 2
£20
12/04/08
Bochum V Hertha Berlin
1 - 1
£28
12/04/08
Reading V Fulham
0 - 2
- £78
12/04/08
Tottenham V Middlesbrough
1 - 1
£51
13/04/08
Groningen V Ajax
2 - 1
£48
13/04/08
Lazio V Siena
1 - 1
£31
14/04/08
Sheffield Wednesday V Plymouth
1 - 1
£6
15/04/08
Wolfsburg V Bochum
0 - 1
£5
16/04/08
Inter Milan V Lazio
0 - 0
- £123
17/04/08
Everton V Chelsea
0 - 1
£43
18/04/08
Burton V Stevenage
3 - 0
£33
19/04/08
Arsenal V Reading
2 - 0
£36
19/04/08
Lens v Sochaux
2 - 1
£32
20/04/08
Aston Villa V Birmingham
5 - 1
£53
20/04/08
Atalanta V Juventus
0 - 4
£46
20/04/08
Siena V Genoa
0 - 1
£10
21/04/08
Belenenses v Setubal
5 - 0
£74
22/04/08
Liverpool V Chelsea
1 - 1
£66
23/04/08
Barcelona V Manchester Utd
0 - 0
£1
24/04/08
Rangers V Fiorentina
0 - 0
- £116
25/04/08
Erzgebirge v FC Koln
3 - 3
£19
26/04/08
Hannover 96 v Hertha Berlin
2 - 2
£78
26/04/08
Bochum V Duisburg
1 - 1
£53
26/04/08
Man City V Fulham
2 - 3
£35
27/04/08
Celtic V Rangers
3 - 2
£16
27/04/08
Fiorentina V Sampdoria
2 - 2
£164
27/04/08
Bayern München V Stuttgart
4 - 1
N/A
28/04/08
West Brom V Southampton
1 - 1
- £65
29/04/08
Manchester Utd V Barcelona
1 - 0
£38
30/04/08
Chelsea V Liverpool
1 - 1
£75

 

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Trades Completed in Detail


Date: 01/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Roma V Manchester Utd - SCORE: 0- 2
Our Recommendation:
This is the 5th time these two have met in the last 12 months and a rerun of last seasons quarter final. Last time out Utd went down 2-1 at the Stadio Olimpico but went on to win 7-1 at Old Trafford, so 8-3 on aggregate. The most recent meeting between these two (group stages) finished 1-1 in what we considered a very even game where Roma seemed to have recovered from the 7-1 whipping. Domestically Roma are currently in superb home form scoring in 100% of their games and on a run of 11 straight wins. In this competition they haven't lost at home since Dec 04 (9 games) and have never been beaten by Utd at home. Since the end of February we have been highly impressed with Utd and feel they are looking sharper than they have in years, but their recent record in this competition on the road doesn't give us confidence. Looking at just the last 10 matches it reads like this W4-D2-L4 with the knockout stages W1-D2-L3. Roma are without Totti which is a bit of a blow but Rossi and Aquilani will try to control the middle of the field like they did in their recent win of Madrid. Utd are without Fletcher and have a few players who will require late fitness tests but should field a full strength team. This really is a tough call which we have been discussing for hours. The only thing we can agree on is Roma conceding a goal as they have done in 9 of the last 10 in this competition, so if Utd can continue their excellent defensive run (not conceding in the last 5 games) they could win here.

Its got to be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal for us and at the current 3.1 is good value. It shouldn't matter who scores 1st at this price you should be able to trade out in profit.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 2.9. A couple of half chances from both teams early on but we had to wait until 39 min's in to see one of the goals of the season from who else ... Ronaldo. The odds didn't move too much as most people were expecting Roma to equalize and we missed the better trade out odds of 4.2, taking 3.8 with £75 for just under £24 profit if the game finished in a win or £19 if it finished in a draw. Those who waited would have been rewarded by another Utd goal early in the second half which drove the odds up to over 25.



Profit made on this trade = £24



Date: 02/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Arsenal V Liverpool - SCORE: 1- 1
Our Recommendation:
Well we thought yesterdays Roma V Man Utd game was a tough call but this one is much more difficult. These two have met 4 times so far this season (with 3 more meeting in the next week or so) with the League fixtures producing high scoring home wins, 3-0 at he Emirates, 4-1 at Anfield, and two Cup wins for Arsenal knocking Liverpool out of the FA and Carling Cup. Arsenal might have had a blip lately, slipping a few places domestically but they have still scored in 100% of their home games this season, not losing in 16, and are unbeaten in this competition at home since 2003 winning around 80% of them. They haven't played a Champions League game with their recent form for a while so we are a little concerned about following the stats but they should still score and the win over Bolton at the weekend will do their morale a world of good. Liverpool are on a decent run domestically with 6 wins in the last 7. All their players seemed to have found their form at the same time. In this competition they are on a run of 5 consecutive wins and have score in 9 of the last 10. If they can supply Torres with some decent balls it could be the 1st win for Benitez over the Gunners on the road.

This one is too close to call so same as yesterday we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Arsenal but we will still get out whoever scores. Don't expect a big price jump after a goal. The value might be in staggering your stake. We will get half on early and the rest on in play.



Our Trading Result:
We managed to get all our stake on for once at average odds of 3. As expected Arsenal scored after 23 min's to continue their 100% scoring record at home. We traded out at 4.3 with £70 for just over £28 on the win and £29 if it ended in a draw.



Profit made on this trade = £29



Date: 03/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Uefa Cup
Teams: Rangers V Sp Lisbon - SCORE: 0 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Rangers are one of the most consistent teams out there for betting on. As an example if you had blindly backed them since November in all domestic matches you would have won 17 out of 18 times. They have scored in 95% of their games this season and usually score at least 2 when playing at Ibrox. When it comes to playing in europe they tend to do well at home, excluding the recent 0-3 whipping from Lyon. On the road is a different matter. We are a little concerned about some of the recent Rangers performances and despite winning most of them they have looked uninspiring especially the recent 1-1 draw against First Division Partick Thistle and the league Cup win over Dundee. They come into this match on the back of a Old Firm Derby win so their morale should be high and to be honest they are a better team than SP Lisbon so should walk away with a win here. The last time these two met was back in 1971 in the quarter finals of the Cup Winners Cup, where the ref completely misunderstood the newly introduced away goal rule sending the match into a penalty shootout when Rangers had actually won 4-3. This was also the only year Rangers have won silverware in Europe. When it comes to picking the right trade for this match the only thing we can all agree on is their ability to beat teams who play in Green and White this season. This might sound stupid but if you consider what this represents to a Rangers supporter or player then their wins over Celtic (twice) this season, Hibs, Panathinaikos and the very competent Werder Bremen then their might be something in this.

We are going to be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal ideally from Rangers. If they start well we will consider backing them in-play as well. We are not sure about the goals market but obviously Rangers won't want to concede and as they only let 0.5 goals a game on average at Ibrox it is likely to be low scoring.

 



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 2.8 inplay. Rangers didn't start that well but showed their physical presence with Sporting having the better of possession they went into the break goalless. Rangers played better in the second half but unfortunately didn't score before we traded out at 1.8 as usual when no goal comes. We didn't have any cover on the 0-0 and as we didn't mention it in the preview opted to have faith in Rangers grabbing a late goal so left a small profit on the win with a £108 loss if the game finished in a draw. Sometimes we get it wrong.


Profit made on this trade = - £108



Date: 05/04/08
Time: 12.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Arsenal V Liverpool - SCORE: 1 - 1

Our Recommendation:
Here we go again.. This is the 2nd match up of the 3 these two have in a matter of 7-days. This time out no away goals to worry about and an absolute must win for the Gunners if they are to keep their Premiership title hopes alive. They have stumbled at home recently drawing 3 of their last 5 but on a positive note they are still unbeaten and have scored in 100% of these games. Domestically under Benitez the Reds have a terrible record on the road against big 4 teams losing 10 of the last 11 which is likely to happen here as one of the strongest trends is Arsenal taking 3 points in their next league home game follows an away win. One thing we nearly overlooked is Liverpool have now secured Champions league qualification for next season, and can't win the league unless the teams above them start losing so we think it is likely Benitez will rest some of the key players so they will be ready for next weeks 2nd leg Champions League match. We know this game is going to be close and to be honest either teams is likely to score 1st but Arsenal need this more and we feel they will win this. From a goals point of view we should see at least two with Arsenal scoring in all their home games so far and the last 4 league H2H meetings finishing over 2.5 goals.

The safest option for us is laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Arsenal. We will chase some value in the lay price by staggering our stake, you should be in profit whoever scores if you get 3.3 as average odds or lower.

We will also consider backing Arsenal if they start the stronger with the over 2.5 goals market also being a consideration as a side trade in-play.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.09 inplay. The back bet on Arsenal definately didn't interest us as Liverpool started much better with the Gunners spending most their time defending, we weren't sure of the goals market delivering until near HT were we felt a goal was on its way so we backed over 2.5 goals at 5.2 with a speculative £25 to be rewarded by a goal 3 min's later from Liverpool. As Arsenal were likely to equalize we traded out at 3.45 with £90 for just under £10 on the win and £11 on the draw. We also traded out of the over 2.5 goals bet at 2.5 with £52 for £25 profit whatever the score.



Profit made on this trade = £36



Date: 05/04/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Aston Villa V Bolton - SCORE: 4 - 0

Our Recommendation:
When these two meet it usually ends in a scoring draw and we feel this is the most likely result again but we have our fingers crossed for a Villa win. The reason we say scoring is there has never been goalless game between these two as far as we can remember and with Villa scoring at home against 93% of games and Bolton yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels to a top half team, we should see at least 1 goal but probably more. If Villa take the lead they very rarely give it up which is evident in their stats by only losing 4% of games over the last 10 years when they go ahead.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal ideally from Villa. If they do take the lead we will consider backing them as well (just under 80% chance of winning, 96% chance they won't lose). Staggering your stake should pay off and average odds under 3.5 should be safe whoever scores.

If you like the safety the 0-0 is their for your consideration.



Our Trading Result:
We only managed to get £70 of our £100 lay stake on at 3.5 before Gareth Barry opened the scoring for Villa after 9 min's. But this did enable us to trade out at 4.7 with £50. We gave it some time inplay before backing Villa as highlighted above and managed to back them at 1.36 with £50. After Agbonlahor and Barry scored early in the 2nd half we traded out on the back bet at 1.1 with £40 to give us an overall profit of £32 if Villa went on to win, which they did. Great result for Villa, exactly what they needed to get back on track!





Profit made on this trade = £34



Date: 05/04/08
Time: 17.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Serie A
Teams: Roma V Genoa - SCORE: 3 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Roma are definately one of the inform home teams in europe. They are now on a run of 11 straight wins and only 4 points behind leaders Inter. They are scoring an average of 2 goals a game and have scored in 100% of their home games. The opponents won't welcome this as they have conceded in all their away games since Sept and against top 6 team 100% of games, with the deadlock being broken before HT in over 80% of these. To answer a question we got asked early today this is exactly what we look for when laying the 0-0 as this criteria would payout in 97% of matches.

For us backing Roma and trading out after they take the lead should deliver us a positive result and if Genoa score 1st inside 30 min's we will consider backing Roma again and trading out after they equalize or take the lead. Laying 0-1 if its later in the game is another option due to Roma's record of scoring at home (If they are having an off day just stick to the original bet).

A side trade on over 2.5 goals should payout as well due to Genoa's record of conceding early and for the very brave laying the 0-0 could be an option.



Our Trading Result:
We backed Roma 1/2 Hr before kick off as we felt that they might shorten nearer the game. We also got £25 of the over 2.5 goals stake on inplay before the 1st goal. Roma definately started better and managed to go 2-0 up inside 20 min's. We traded out after the 1st goal unfortunately but managed to get 1.18 matched on the Roma lay bet and 1.5 on the goals bet for £37 profit overall. A great day with all 6 bets coming in (including the ones in the further trading section)


Profit made on this trade = £37



Date: 06/04/08
Time: 16.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Primera
Teams:Real Zaragoza V Real Betis - SCORE: 0 - 3
Our Recommendation:
It's a tough day today so excuse us for dragging the bottom of the barrel, but by doing so we might have found a gem. Who would of thought a team 4th from bottom would have a 100% scoring record at home! That's right Zaragoza have score in 15 consecutive home games. There main problem which explains their poor league position is they have conceded in 80% of these games, which is great for us as goals are practically guaranteed. When playing against teams with Betis form they tend to deliver a positive result at home, this is supported by their H2H history with only 2 of the last 10 being won by Betis.

For us this is perfect for laying the draw and trading out after a goal. Ideally chasing a better price with average odds under 3.5 being ideal.

The over 2.5 goals mark is of interest so if the game a open a side bet on this inplay should pay off.



Our Trading Result:
We got in a little earlier than expected on the goals market here as we missed the boat in the Bayern Munich game because of a goal in 3rd minute, which meant we could turn our attention fully to this game. After getting £25 of our intended £50 on the over 2.5 goals market at 2.1 we started to get our lay stake on the draw. We got £25 of the £100 on the lay bet, then a goal came from Betis. So after the market settled we decided to trade out of the goals bet at 1.46 with £30 leaving the profit weighted towards over. We also decided to see what the odd were going to do before trading out of the draw bet and as they shortened we were looking to lay at lower odds of 3.45 with £75 so we could trade out for a small profit or no loss if we could get 3.65 matched backing the draw. Whilst we were waiting for our bet to be accepted for a few min's another goal came from Betis, which came out of nowhere as they had only 29% of the amount of possession and half the amount of shots of Zaragoza. This did enabled us to trade out at 5.8 with £16 for £8 profit on the win and £7 on the draw. So overall £21.



Profit made on this trade = £21



Date: 06/04/08
Time: 18.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Primera
Teams:Sevilla V Villareal- SCORE: 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Sevilla at home usually means one thing.. Goals! They have a near perfect scoring record at home and are averaging just under 2.5 goals a game. They do let them in though conceding in 74% of home games this season. This tends to have the effect of delivering a high scoreline with the majority of these games finishing over 2.5 goals. Villarreal have scored in 88% of their away games this season, and when Sevilla conceding at home 86% of their games have finished +2.5 goals since the start of last season. We have no idea who will win this as both teams are very even on paper, the only thing we are confident of is highlighted above, goals!

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal ideally from Sevilla. Chase the price again for better value with under 3.5 being ideal. We strongly feel we will see over 2.5 goals here so this as a side trade inplay should be considered.

ITS BEEN PULLED FROM THE INPLAY MARKET. PLEASE TRY

http://www.betdaq.com/UI/Default.aspx



Our Trading Result:
After scratch our heads for two min's regarding why this game wasn't going inplay when the match had started. We decided to check Betdaq to see if the game was inplay and get our bets with them if it was. Those who contacted us about getting caught out by Betfair staying suspended we also told them to use Betdaq. Lucky for all of us their were no goals yet. We got half our lay stake on at 3.65 (£50) and also backed over 2.5 goals with £25 of the £50 we were looking to get on at 2.25. Yet again a goal came before we got all our stake on but as it came from Sevilla it was an easy trade. We traded out of the draw bet at 4.8 with £38 for £11 across all options and traded out of the goals bet at 1.49 with £35 for £13 if the game finished over and £9 if it finished under. So overall the lower profit of £20.


Profit made on this trade = £20



Date: 07/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Clydesdale Premier
Teams:Aberdeen V Falkirk - SCORE: 2 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Aberdeen always do well against Falkirk when playing at home and are somewhat a bogey team for them. They remain unbeaten at home in the last 15 years. Aberdeen might be in the wrong end of the table but they have been scoring well managing to do so in 93% of home games this season. They aren't very safe at the back though conceding in 75% of their games this season. Falkirk seem to be having issues scoring of late only finding the back of the net once in 6 games. The other side of the coin is showing a solid defense with only 2 goals conceded in these games. We feel this one will probably end in a goal scoring draw as Falkirk have scored in the majority of meetings between these two and will definately want to break the trend and Aberdeen are a banker for a goal at home.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Aberdeen. You will probably need average odds under 3.5 if you want to profit whoever scores so chasing the price down should pay off. Hopefully we won't get caught out like the last few trades.



Our Trading Result:
We got in at average odds of 3.4 and traded out when Chris Maguire scored for Aberdeen after 21 min's. Doesn't get much easier than this! We managed to get 4.9 matched with £70 for just under £24 if the game finished in a win and just under £50 if it ended in a draw. So the smaller profit with Aberdeen grabbing a late winner.


Profit made on this trade = £24



Date: 08/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: West Ham V Portsmouth - SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
With David doing the Liverpool game and the Chelsea games odds being out of comfortable reach of most members we are left with this one. The reason this is 3rd on our list is neither team has much to play for now in the Premiership. Obviously Pompey have there eye on the FA Cup with this now being their route into Europe. Its not a complete loss though as there are some decent trends which give us confidence. Pompey have not had a 0-0 game this season on the road and when playing away they rarely draw. The last one was 15 games ago. They have the 3rd best away winning record this season with all there wins coming from teams below them (where West Ham find themselves).
West Ham this season have done surprising well in our opinion as they have had massive issues with injuries and suspensions. Coming into this match they have 14, 1st team players out. These problems are evident in their recent result, conceding 16 goals in 6 games, picking up just 1 win, but have done a 'Middlesbrough' as its now known by Exchange Traders members and pulled off some decent results against the big boys (beating Liverpool and Man Utd when playing at home this season).

With Pompey playing this only a few days after their FA Cup Semi they might have a few heavy feet so we can't see this being a big scoring game, this is also supported in both teams scoring trends but we don't think 0-0 is on the cards.

We will be laying the draw with average odds under 3.45 ideally and trading out after a goal from either team.

We will also consider a small side bet on Portsmouth if they are dominant at the start as we feel there price should be around 1.85 not 3.4.

Consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability if your concerned about it finish goalless.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.23. We were put of the side bet on Portsmouth during the 1st half as they needed to wake up. In fact we had more confidence that West Ham would score during the 1st 45mins. We had to wait until 67 min's in for Pompey to take the lead through a Kranjcar goal where we traded out at 4.2 with £75 for just under £24 on the win or £16 on the draw.


Profit made on this trade = £24



Date: 09/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Champions League
Teams: Manchester Utd V Roma - SCORE: 1 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Its not hard justifying our position here. Domestically Utd have been superb scoring in 95% of their home games winning 88% of these these. Their Champions League home form is even better, winning their last 10 and scoring a whopping 28 goals in these games. We can't see them taking it easy on Roma and their wake up call from Middlesbrough at the weekend should have refocused them. There are some strong trend supporting the Utd win here. With the strongest being 96% of teams that win away at this stage have booked their place in the next round. Some good news for Utd is Roma's superstar Totti is still out which which could have baring on the result and when Roma have played teams of a similar ranking to Utd without a key player on the road they have lost 75% of these matches. This is supported by two previous H2H wins for Utd at Old Trafford 7-1 and 1-0.

We will be backing Utd here and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind and its inside the 1st 30 min's we will consider backing them again so we can trade out when they equalize. Laying Roma if this happens later in the game is another option after the odds have shortened. Don't do this if Utd are playing poorly (not likely but could happen).

Late ammendment - As the Utd team line up isn't what most of us would consider full stength. Laying the draw around 3.4 would probably be a safer option. if you haven't already got in like most of us.



Our Trading Result:
We will try and keep this simple. Utd's team announcement caused a knee jerk reaction and we were flooded with emails about what should we should do. As the majority of members highlighted they got in on the back bet we felt we had to stay with this (getting in at 1.93) but did highlight after receiving this information, laying the draw was a safer option. So after a great start from Utd, a missed penalty for Rossi and some end to end play it went flat until Tevez scored after 70 min's. Whether you had layed the draw or backed Utd you would have profited here. We traded out at 1.18 with £100 with all the weight of the profit on Utd holding on for the win for just over £71 profit. The highlight for us was Neville coming on for Anderson after 14 months out. We even got out of our seat for this one!




Profit made on this trade = £71



Date: 10/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Uefa Cup
Teams: SP Lisbon V Rangers - SCORE: 0 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Not again I hear you cry! Well what's the chance of another 0-0? Following the 0-0 draw last week at Ibrox, where both teams cancelled each other out, we are off to Lisbon for the 2nd leg. Sporting were the only quarter-finalists who failed to score away during the first legs. At home they very rarely fail to hit the back of the net and domestically they have scored in 100% of their home games. They also have an excellent defensive record not losing at home this season in domestic games and only losing once in Europe at home against Man Utd. They aren't indestructible at home though, as they have conceded in 60% of games.

This is going to be a tough challenge for the Gers and without the vocal arrangements of their home crowd we can't see them winning but they have beaten SP Lisbon before so if Allan McGregor can keep things sold at the back they could grab the draw and that precious away goal that will take them through.

With it being a Cup match and a second leg where neither teams has a goal advantage it makes sense to stick to a fairly safe trade, so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal. We will look to stager our stake and chase better value with under 3.5 average odds being a decent target.
We shouldn't see the 0-0 but you could consider it if the game is tight or get a little cover on at the start just incase.

Lisbon tend to score fairly early at home so for those who like a side trade the over 2.5 goals market might be worth a small bet in-play.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.02. Rangers started well with Lisbon not really taking the game to Rangers as expected. Not many decent chances but midway through the 1st have we felt it was worth a small side trade on over 2.5 goals. We got £25 on at 3.25 and gave it until 40 min's in before deciding to wasn't going to happen in the 1st half so we traded out at 5.6 with £25 for no loss if the game finished under 2.5 goals as usual. Those who contacted us about it we advise to get out at the same time. We had to wait until 60 min's in for a goal which came via the Frenchman Darcheville which was well deserved. This enabled us to trade out at 3.75 immediately after the goal with £75 for £20 on the win or £14 on the draw. Those who waited could have got much better odds and with the late goal those with nerves of steal would have taken the full profit.



Profit made on this trade = £20



Date: 12/04/08
Time: 14.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams: Bochum V Hertha Berlin - SCORE: 1 - 1
Our Recommendation:
The reason we like this game is Bochum are a banker for a goal, either scoring, as they have done so in 93% of home games this season (scoring two goals in just under 80% of these) or conceding, they definately like to let them in, hence 4 draws in the last 5 home games. Neither team has won a game in the last 5 matches but Bochum have slightly better form. We are a little worried about both teams motivation here, but what hasn't been affected in recent weeks is their style of play which delivers goals. We really can't see this ending goalless with over 2.5 goals very likely. You only have to look at Bochum's recent results at home (75% of games seeing 3 or more goals) and their H2H history to see this is strongly supported, with 90% of Bochum's home meetings finishing over 2.5 goals.

Whilst most people are expecting a draw here we feel this will probably end in a scoring one or a Bochum win, so we will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal and as a side trade backing over 2.5 goals in-play for better value if the game starts as expected. We will probably stagger our stake on both tradesfor better value.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.18 and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.4 as a side trade. Bochum's defense let them down yet again for Skacel to score after 28 min's putting Hertha ahead and enabled us to trade out at 3.45 on the draw and 1.78 on the goals bet. We traded out with the profit fairly evenly spilt for £28 across all options.



Profit made on this trade = £28



Date: 12/04/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Reading V Fulham - SCORE: 0 - 2
Our Recommendation:
Reading seem to have improved recently with 3 wins and draw from the last 5, not losing in their last 3 at home. Prior to this they lost 8 straight games and practically looked a certainty for relegation. Its almost like they were shocked into action when they found themselves at the bottom. They are not out of the woods yet but a win here would practically secure Premiership survival. Fulham are going to be playing Championship football next season and a lot to do with this is their inability to win on the road (no wins this season) and to keep a clean sheet (only 12% of away games). We are pretty sure Reading will score here as their record of hitting the back of the net against bottom half teams is very strong, and when they do they go on to win 85% of this games.

We will be backing Reading and trading out after they take the lead. If they go behind they have a great record of turning games around in the 2nd half so they are worth considering backing again or you could look to lay Fulham instead. Obviously if Reading are playing poorly don't do it.

If the game looks open a side trade in-play on over 2.5 could be considered.

Our Trading Result:
We backed Reading in-play at 1.89 and backed over 2.5 goals inplay at 2.54. No real chances from them before Fulham opened the scoring after 24 min's. After the goal we traded out of the goals bet at 1.78 with £71 for £20 profit across both options. They had a couple of chances later in the first half but not what you would consider a shot on goal so we were cautions about backing them again but felt laying Fulham later in the send half should pay off as Reading usually turn things around and Fulham haven't won on the road in years. So we traded out at 5.8 on the back bet for a loss of £66 if Fulham went on to win. Once the odds got to 1.4 we felt it was worth the risk laying Fulham to win so we layed them for £80 which gave us a total liability of £98. Unfortunately Fulham scored again so we lost £98 on the match bet and won £20 on the goals bet so overall a £78 loss. Those smart cookies who layed 0-1 would have ended this in profit but as we didn't mention it or do it we have a loser.



Profit made on this trade = -£78



Date: 12/04/08
Time: 15.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Tottenham V Middlesbrough - SCORE: 1 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Spurs are due a win and with their form against bottom half teams when playing at home (won 85% last few seasons) we should see them take all 3 points. Despite sporadic performances from Spurs they have continued their home scoring form managing to hit the back of the net in 100% of home games this season. If Boro score 1st we are likely to see a goal frenzy with just under 90% of Spurs games delivering this result after going behind. We are a little put off backing Spurs or the goals market as our main bet because of what we saw from Middlesbrough in their recent match against Utd, so will be taking the slightly safer option as Spurs should still score of laying the draw and trading out after a goal. The odds are a little high for some of you so for those who are concerned we advice to stager your stake and chase the odds down for better value. If you want to get in on the match early a side bet on over 2.5 goals should give you some profit if you get caught out by an early goal.


Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.75 and backed over 2.5 goals at 2.3. Johnny Grounds scored an own goal after 27 min's putting Spurs ahead enabling us to trade out at 5.5 on the draw and 1.58 on the goals bet. We split the profit across all options on both bets so we could quickly focus on the other games.



Profit made on this trade = £51



Date: 13/04/08 replayed 16/04
Time: 13.30hrs GMT
Fixture: Eredivisie
Teams: Groningen V Ajax - SCORE: 1 - 2
Our Recommendation:
FC Groningen are in 7th place which puts them in limbo, with only a couple of games left this season they can't make the playoffs for Champions League but are safe from relegation. Their most recent games definately lacked motivation which is probably the reason they only picked up 4 points. They also lost their last 3 at home.

Ajax are in 2nd place, and still have a chance of winning the league if they walk away with 3 points here. If they fail to, PSV are Champions. They are in decent form with only one loss in the last 8. They have an excellent scoring record (87 goals in 32 games) with and average of over 2 on the road. They have only failed to score once on the road this season and this was against PSV which is understandable. Their record over Groningen is superb losing only 8% of games which is supported by the strongest trend goals!!! The last 17 consecutive meeting between these two have finished with 3 or more goals.

Its a no brainer for us so we we will be backing Ajax and trading out after they take the lead and will be having a side trade on the over 2.5 goals market inplay. If Groningen take the lead backing Ajax again so you can get higher average odds or laying Groningen should be considered if Ajax are playing well. As yesterday if they are playing poorly don't back them again.
Laying 1-0 would have paid out on all previous meetings between these two so this also could be considered if Groningen take the lead.


Our Trading Result:
We were really positive about this game getting in at 1.82 until some idiots set a load of toilet paper on fire in the stands which then started melting all the seats and filed the pitch will smoke. We will have to put this on hold for now until its rearranged.

The game eventually took place and ended 1-2 to Ajax as expected. We traded out at 1.25 for £48 profit on the win.


Profit made on this trade = £48



Date: 13/04/08
Time: 14.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Serie A
Teams: Lazio V Siena - SCORE: 1 - 1
Our Recommendation:
At odds of 2.7 on the draw this got our immediate attention. We aren't quite sure what punters are thinking, because since the end of January, no side has improved as much as Lazio. Their new recruits have performed miracles in a team that were down and out, with 5 wins and a draw from the last 6 at home. They have even mentioned their hopes to secure a Uefa Cup place in the local press so they will need a win here to support their cause. They will also welcome their 100% home record of Siena which isn't likely to be broken here because Siena are yet to win an away game when meeting a a team with similar home form to Lazio’s ( W0-D1-L9).

We were considering backing Lazio and if they take the lead in the 1st half they have a superb record of going on to win (so as a side trade it might be worth it) but with the draw odds at 2.7 we can't ignore this gift so will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal, ideally from Lazio.

Those who like the safety consider backing the 0-0 correct score, you shouldn't need it as Lazio are scoring well at the moment.

Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 2.57. Not much early action so could have wait alot longer before getting in. Siena hit the cross bar which was their only real chance of the 1st half. Mutarelli fired a rocket just before HT to put Lazio ahead enabling us to trade out at 3.75 with just over £68 for just under £31 profit across all options.



Profit made on this trade = £31



Date: 14/04/08
Time: 20.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Championship
Teams: Sheffield Wednesday V Plymouth - SCORE: 1 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Sheffield Wednesday have finally decided they want stay in the Championship and are now on a run of 8 unbeaten games - 6 draws and 2 wins needing only a few more points to secure next season in this league. Plymouth aren't going to make it easy for Wednesday as they too will be motivated by the fact they are just 3 points off the play-off places. Both teams are conceding goals in around 70% of games so we are likely to see a goal here and with Wednesday's new found motivation and ability to shoot straight we think they will edge the win despite the stats pointing to a scoring draw. Plymouth also haven't beaten Wednesday in the last 5 meetings. This isn't the strongest trade but for us its worth the risk. We will be laying the draw by staggering our stake for better odds, chasing 3.2 or better (average odds) and trading out after a goal from either team.

Our Trading Result:
The problem with chasing value is sometimes you don't get your stake on! We only managed to get £25 on at 3.45 before Plymouth scored after 2 min. Because we felt Wednesday would equalize we traded out with the profit on the draw, so £6 profit. We did do some other bets on this match because we only got 25% of our stake on but as we didn't highlight these in advance we won't report the profit.



Profit made on this trade = £6



Date: 15/04/08
Time: 19.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Bundesliga
Teams: Wolfsburg V Bochum - SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Wolfsburg are much improved and since Mid-December, they have only lost once, winning 72% of games. They have a very consistent scoring record managing to hitting the back of the net in 97% of games this season and in all matches against teams of Bochum standard. Bochum just can't seem to win lately, drawing 5 of the last 6 despite scoring in all of these games. This is mainly due to their defensive ability, managing only 1 one clean sheet on the road this season and this was against relegation strugglers Duisburg (not the most difficult task). This match is practically guaranteed a goal and with Wolfsburg not losing any of last 6 H2H meetings and coming into this game with strong home form we give it to them on paper.

We feel the price is a little short on Wolfsburg with evens being the value we would look for before getting in so we will consider this inplay as a side bet once the odds have drifted. The draw is also a little over priced so we would want around 3.5 average odds before getting involved in this. So to clarify we will be looking to lay the draw at average odds under 3.5 and trade out after a goal, ideally from Wolfsburg. Whilst we are waiting for the odds to shorten we will look to get in on the over 2.5 goals market as a side bet. We will still chase value on this by staggering our stake and if Wolfsburg are dominant we will consider backing them as a side bet.

Those of a nervous disposition consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability. Its available at 17.0 on Betfair.



Our Trading Result:
The match started fairly promising so we got in on the over 2.5 goals market by staggering our stake as highlighted above whilst we waited for the odds to drift on the draw. Shortly after getting all the £25 on, the game started to send us to sleep. Wolfsburg were having the better of play but didn't really have their usual urgency or accuracy! By the time the odds got to 3.35 on the overs market we agreed this was a mistake and traded out with no loss on under 2.5 by laying over 2.5 with £25. From feedback most the members seemed to have left it alone or traded out around HT with no loss on under as we did. It got to HT before we even got in on the draw bet as the odds were still around 3.5. In the 2nd half we were hoping for a better display and as it started well we staggered our lay stake on from 3.4 managing to get 2.97 average odds. The match eventually got to our usual trade out point of 1.8 on the draw so we traded out (1.82 matched) with £95. This left us a small profit on the win and all the loss on the draw. This desision was made as we still belived Wolfsburg would score as they have done in 97% of their games this season. They didn't score but Bochum did so a small profit of £5. Those who backed the 0-0 at 17 should have done really well as they could have traded at 1.3 before the goal.


Profit made on this trade = £5



Date: 16/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Coppa Italia Semi Final
Teams: Inter Milan V Lazio - SCORE: 0 - 0
Our Recommendation:
After a bit of a blip in motivation and form Inter now look like their former selves. Their recent league wins over Atalanta and Fiorentina restored our loss in confidence in them. Its hard to interpret how Inter feel about this match as their priority must be to win the league and resting players here would be the sensible option as Roma are breathing down their necks only 4 points behind. But if they win this they will more than likely meet Roma in the final and if you remember last seasons embarrassing 6-2 loss (we do as we lost money) it would give a chance for revenge.

Lazio aren't in good away form. They have only won a single game this season on the road and have no win's in the last 12 games domestically. They have also conceded in 82% of these games. On a positive note their Cup form has been better. The only thing that stops us backing Inter outright is Lazio's have been resting key players over the last few weeks prior to this Semi Final, which is concerning as they might be taking this much more serious than Inter. This is a tough call, and if Inter field a reserve team we are in for an exciting game and probably the only option here is to lay the draw. It should be safe as Inter have scored in 100% of home games this season and have put at least 3 in the back of the net when playing at home against Lazio on the last 3 occasions.

We will be laying the draw and trading out after a goal ideally from Inter. If you want to stagger you stake please do. The current draw odds (3.25)are about right but its always better to chase value.

With Inter having a record of scoring early it might be worth considering backing over 2.5 goals in-play as a small side trade if the game is open.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 2.96. Both teams looked like scoring with a disallowed goal and the ball hitting the crossbar but no goals unfortunately. We didn't see this finishing 0-0 so didn't back the 0-0 and traded out at 1.8 with the loss on the draw as we felt Inter would still score due to their visible determination and 100% home scoring record. We got this one wrong unfortunately so a loss of £123. We also backed the over 2.5 inplay which we traded out of 40 min's in with no loss on under 2.5 as we usually do.



Profit made on this trade = - £123



Date: 17/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Everton V Chelsea - SCORE: 0 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Everton desperately need a result here or Villa or Pompey (ideally Villa) could move into that 5th European place. Obviously not a situation they want to find themselves in. With only 1 win in the last 5 they will need to pull their socks up or they will be supporting Chelsea in their quest for the Premiership title. When playing against big 4 teams Everton have an excellent record of starting well, particularly at home, taking the lead inside 45 min's in 70% of games over the last few seasons and not trailing at HT in any of these in 4 years. Its not just big 4 teams they have a strong 1st half record against, they have only been behind once at HT since October. So basically we are saying Everton are not likely to be behind at HT and should have one on the board.

Chelsea simply have to win this to keep their hopes of the Premiership title alive in fact they really need to take maximum points from their four remaining games whilst also hoping Manchester United slip-up, just like they did last season. Chelsea are taking this match very seriously which explains why they rested key player in the recent Wigan match which backfired, putting more pressure on a winning here. Their record over Everton is pretty strong not losing any of the last 14 meetings and whilst we will probably see this continue we feel both teams will be fighting hard for a win.

As we feel Everton could take an early lead we are going to back over 2.5 goals inplay as a side bet whilst we stagger our lay the draw stake on for lower average odds, trading out after a goal. We would be happy with anything under 3.3 as average odds as this should enable us to trade out with a profit whoever scores. If we don't feel a goal is coming we will probably trade out of the over 2.5 bet after we have our lay the draw bet on.

Those who are concerned of a stalemate please consider backing the 0-0 for your trade out liability. We probably won't unless it is really tight and will opt to trade out at 1.8 as usual on the draw and with the loss on the draw if no goals come at this point as we feel their will be a winner here, probably Chelsea.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.2 and backed over 2.5 goals inplay at 2.88 after an early shot from the blues. Chelsea had the better of play before Michael Essien scored to take the lead 41 min's in. This enabled us to trade out at 4.7 on the draw with £60 and 2.62 on the over 2.5 side bet with £55 for an overall profit of just under £43.



Profit made on this trade = £43



Date: 18/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture: Blue Square Premier
Teams: Burton V Stevenage - SCORE: 3 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Both teams need to win this with only 5 play off places available the will have to fight for a place for the rest of the season as their are only 4 points between 3rd and 6th place. Burton are one of those teams that score well at home managing to do so in 96% of games this season. They aren't that solid at the back though which is why they have lost the lead in quite a few games this season, conceding in over 75% of their home games. A team that is likely to hit the back of the net against them is Stevenage who have scored in 80% of their away games (including cup matches). We don't feel Stevenage will win this as they have had a poor time on the road recently, losing 6 of the last 8 but with only 2 points separating them it should be a decent match with both of them being focused on the win. The draw is unlikely as there is a distinct lack of draws in their results this season and with the last 6 meetings between these two finishing over 2.5 we should see some goals.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, ideally from Burton. It make sense to chase value with under 3.4 average odds being ideal. We will looking to get in on over 2.5 goals as a side bet inplay too if the game is open.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.28. We held off the side bet in the 1st half as Burton were playing poorly with the majority of chances coming from Stevenage. We also advise all the members who contacted us to leave the goals market alone. Burton obviously got a kick up the backside at HT because they were a different team in the 2nd half and managed to score after 57 min's. We traded out of the draw bet at 4.6 with £65 with the majority of the profit on the win due to lack of draws. Burton were spurred on by the goal which encouraged us to get in on the over 2.5 goals market but as we had already advise members no to do so we feel we can't report it, so overall £33. Those who actually got in on the goals market in the 1st half and contacted us after the 1st or 2nd goal we advised to switch the loss onto under 2.5 because of Burtons new found motivation.



Profit made on this trade = £33



Date: 19/04/08
Time: 19.45hrs GMT
Fixture:Premiership
Teams: Arsenal V Reading - SCORE: 2 - 0
Our Recommendation:
Arsenal's title aspirations all but disappeared last Sunday, and defeat by Reading would make it mathematically impossible for the Gunners to catch United. It is still feasible that they could catch Chelsea to claim 2nd place enabling them to secure automatic qualification to next season's Champions League. Its not going to easy as they come into this match with only 1 win in the last 8. Facing a team in Reading's position (just two places and three points above the relegation zone) is the worst type of encounter this time of the season as their motivation can cause big upsets.

The strongest trends for us are Arsenal scoring, they have done so in 100% of their home games this season and over 2.5 goals, all previous H2H meetings between these two have had this result. Reading's motivation will probably get them on the board and if this happens the scoring should deliver the result we are looking for and we are pretty sure Wenger wants a positive result to end the worst few weeks of his career.

We will be backing over 2.5 goals, inplay for better value and trading out after a goal. We will stagger our stake chasing value depending on how open the game is. We are a little cautious about trading out with no loss on under 2.5 goals at HT so would prefer to take the risk on this one due to Arsenal's record of scoring late goals and maybe lay the 0-0 correct score as cover in the second half at low odds, if goals look likely.

Those who don't like the risk of laying the 0-0 as well as backing over 2.5 and want some cover, just incase no goal comes early on you could consider backing the 0-0 correct score with a small stake and trading out for no loss before a goal.



Our Trading Result:
This went perfect for us. We backed over 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.39 getting most our stake on after Arsenal upped the tempo 20 min's in. Adebayor opened the scoring for Arsenal after 30 min's for us to trade out at 1.74 with £138 for £36 across both options. We actually forgot to put back Arsenal if they look dominant at odds over 1.45 in the preview so despite advising to do this inplay we can't report this so overall £36.



Profit made on this trade = £36



Date: 19/04/08
Time: 16.10hrs GMT
Fixture: Ligue 1
Teams: Lens v Sochaux - SCORE: 3 - 2
Our Recommendation:
When these two meet someone always scores, with no goalless matches in their H2H history and both teams motivation to stay afloat we can't oppose this trend. Lens are winless in the last 10 and find themselves joint 2nd from bottom and desperate need 3 points here. They are obviously struggling overall but have been kept off the bottom by their home record which has seen them only lose 3 games this season and score in 82%. Defensive they aren't too hot and conceding here is definately on the cards. Sochaux lost to Lens back in December but they were in a completely different run of form. Since mid-February they have been playing with urgency and shooting on target which is reflected in their results, not losing any and winning all of their away matches. Its a tough call but we are confident of both teams scoring, hopefully lens 1st as this will give us better trade out odds.

We will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal. We will chase the price down for better value with under 3.2 average odds being ideal.

A speculative side trade on over 1.5 goals should pay off as the last 14 encounters have had at least 2 goals.



Our Trading Result:
We managed to get £70 on the lay bet at 3.25 as the odds had shortened on the draw before kick off and backed over 1.5 goals at 1.55 (unfortunately with only got half our stake on the goals bet) before Adama Coulibaly opened the scoring early on for Lens. This enabled us to trade out of both bets at 5.0 on the draw bet with £45 and 1.17 on the goals bet with £30. So overall £32 profit. Loads of other opportunities in this match with 4 more goals so well done to those who profited from them.


Profit made on this trade = £32



Date: 20/04/08
Time: 12.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Premiership
Teams: Aston Villa V Birmingham - SCORE: 5 - 1
Our Recommendation:
Both teams have something to play for here. Villa have that Uefa Cup place, which with their remaining fixture is definately still possible and Birminingham have their Premiership survival because they are 4th from bottom and only a handful of points from relegation which simply isn't enough to sit back and relax. Lets not also forget this is a Derby match too, so both teams will want to win this! Villa's most recent 2 games against relegation strugglers have been rather one sided to put it politely hitting the back of the next 10 times in these 2 matches. H2H these two have had some mixed results with Birmingham not losing at Villa Park for a few years (03-05) but the 3 most recent meetings have all gone to Villa. We should definately see at least one goal here as Villa have scored in 95% of their home games this season but have conceded in 70% of these. To complement this Birmingham on the road have conceded in 95% of their games and have done so in 100% of matches against top half teams and when Villa have met a team in Birmingham's run of form over the last 10 years they have only lost 8% of games.

We want to support the Villa win here but feel happier backing them after they take the lead as they have a superb win rate at home after scoring 1st, so we will look at this as a side bet in-play.

As its a Derby match we always get a little cautions so will be laying the draw here and trading out after a goal, hopefully from Villa. Please feel free to chase value. We are pretty sure that you won't need to back the 0-0 correct score but if you want to consider it for your trade out liability either before or inplay its there for yours and our consideration.



Our Trading Result:
We layed the draw at average odds of 3.65. Villa were dominant as expected managing to take the lead through an Ashley Young goal after 28 min's. This enabled us to trade out at decent 1st goal odds of 6 with £55. After the goal we backed Villa as highlighted above as a side trade and were rewarded by another goal from John Carew a few min's before HT to trade out at 1.06 on the side bet. As we had tickets for this game we are a bit annoyed we couldn't make it for family reasons but the result and the profit soften the blow. Another great result for Villa over struggling teams an amazing 15 goals scored in 3 games.


Profit made on this trade = £53



Date: 20/04/08
Time: 14.00hrs GMT
Fixture: Serie A
Teams: Atalanta V Juventus - SCORE: 0 - 4
Our Recommendation:
Considering all Atalanta wanted to do this season was to stay in Serie A they have done well to find themselves mid-table. A lot to do with this is because they have been playing well at home, scoring in 82% of games. They haven't managed to beat any of the top four teams at home this season but they have looked strong against others. Defensively they have a few holes conceding in 82% of home games and when playing strong attacking teams this has been their downfall. When it comes to considering what market is right for this match until recently we would have said definately ' over 2.5 goals' because they were on a run of 11 games finishing with 3 or more goals. But they have had a blip lately not scoring in the last 2 so we prefer this as a side bet. When you consider Atalanta are playing Juventus the goals market looks back on the cards because they play the type of football which sees goals at both ends, scoring in 88% of games and conceding in 75% of them this season. We feel they will definat