September 2007
trading advice given
Profit for Month = £977
Football Trades Completed Summary
(For a detailed summary of each trade see the detailed
results table below)
Date |
Teams |
Score |
Profit |
01/09/07 |
Fulham V Tottenham |
3 - 3 |
- £100 |
01/09/07 |
Middlesborough V Birmingham |
2 - 0 |
£66 |
02/09/07 |
Arsenal V Portsmouth |
3 - 1 |
£61 |
02/09/07 |
Blackburn V Manchester City |
1 - 0 |
£21 |
02/09/07 |
Aston Villa V Chelsea |
2 - 0 |
- £60 |
03/09/07 |
AC Milan V Fiorentina |
1 - 1 |
£38 |
04/09/07 |
Oxford V Exeter |
2 - 2 |
£26 |
05/09/07 |
Spain U17 V Ghana U17 |
1 - 1 |
£38 |
06/09/07 |
Nigeria U17 V Germany U17 |
3 - 1 |
£63 |
06/09/07 |
Stafford Rangers V Halifax |
2 - 3 |
£21 |
08/09/07 |
Scotland v Lithuania |
3 - 1 |
£21 |
08/09/07 |
Italy V France |
0 - 0 |
- £99 |
08/09/07 |
Iceland V Spain |
1 - 1 |
£115 |
09/09/07 |
Spain U17 v Nigeria U17 |
0 - 0 |
£10 |
09/09/07 |
Wycombe v Brentford |
1 - 0 |
£42 |
10/09/07 |
Burton v Torquay |
3 -1 |
£52 |
11/09/07 |
Finland V Poland |
0 - 0 |
-£100 |
11/09/07 |
Slovakia v Wales |
2 - 5 |
£97 |
11/09/07 |
Czech Republic v Rep of Ireland |
1 - 0 |
£53 |
13/09/07 |
Forest Green v Salisbury |
0 - 3 |
£60 |
15/09/07 |
Tottenham V Arsenal |
1 - 3 |
£85 |
15/09/07 |
Wigan V Fulham |
1 -1 |
£26 |
16/09/07 |
Watford V Southampton |
3 -2 |
£53 |
16/09/07 |
Manchester City V Aston Villa |
1 - 0 |
-£28 |
17/09/07 |
Derby V Newcastle |
1 - 0 |
£0 |
18/09/07 |
AC Milan V Benfica |
2 - 1 |
£77 |
18/09/07 |
Shakhtar V Celtic |
2 - 0 |
£102 |
19/09/07 |
Arsenal V Sevilla |
3 - 0 |
-£77 |
20/09/07 |
Everton v Metallist Kharkiv |
1 - 1 |
£25 |
22/09/07 |
Arsenal V Derby |
5 - 0 |
£32 |
22/09/07 |
Liverpool V Birmingham |
0 - 0 |
-£50 |
22/09/07 |
Barcelona V Sevilla |
2 - 1 |
£90 |
22/09/07 |
Hibernian V Celtic |
3 - 2 |
£40 |
22/09/07 |
Bolton V Tottenham |
1 - 1 |
£27 |
24/09/07 |
Boavista V Academica |
0 - 0 |
-£100 |
25/09/07 |
Sevilla V Espanyol |
2 - 3 |
£34 |
26/09/07 |
Nurnberg V Leverkusen |
1 - 2 |
£94 |
26/09/07 |
Parma V Torino |
2 - 0 |
£47 |
27/09/07 |
York City V Halifax |
3 - 2 |
-£20 |
29/09/07 |
West Ham V Arsenal |
0 - 1 |
£40 |
29/09/07 |
Sunderland V Blackburn |
1 - 2 |
£28 |
29/09/07 |
Birmingham V Manchester Utd |
0 - 1 |
£1 |
30/09/07 |
St Mirren V Hearts |
1 -3 |
£33 |
30/09/07 |
Everton V Middlesborough |
0 - 1 |
£31 |
30/09/07 |
Torino V Juventus |
0 - 1 |
-£38 |
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Trades Completed in Detail
| Date: 01/09/07 |
| Time: 1500hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Fulham V Tottenham - SCORE: 3 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Fulham have scored in 17 of their last 20 matches. This season they have taken the lead by half-time in all four games. Based on this info, Spurs reaction to an away loss and Fulham’s decent record of avoiding three successive losses, we think the win price for Fulham is very good value. So we are going to be backing Fulham around 3.6 on Betfair and when they take the lead will be trading out, ideally this will be in the first half.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got are back bet on at 4.0 so were very happy before Kick Off. Unfortunately at no point during the match did Fulham take the lead, despite 6 goals being scored between them. We managed to get a couple of quid matched on the lay at odds of 15 in injury time but nothing worth reporting, so we will declare the full loss.
|
Profit made on this trade = - £100
|
| Date: 01/09/07 |
| Time: 1500hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Middlesborough V Birmingham - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Nine of Middlesborough's last eleven home games have had +2.5 goals and seven have had +3.5 goals, including five of the last six. Three of Birmingham’s four this season have had +2.5 goals. This obviously tells you what we will be trading on. We are backing over 2.5 goals around 2.1 on Betfair and trading out after a goal or two. As we mentioned back in August, in ten of Boro’s last eleven home games, a goal has been scored after the 70th minute. So if two goals have been scored and there is 20 min's left and you fancy taking a risk it could pay off. |
Our Trading Result:
We got are back bet matched at 2.12 before Kick Off. Two opportunities to trade out were available in the first half, on the back of Middlesborough's superb performance. We decided to trade out after the second goal basically because the Fulham game was going against us and we wanted a positive result. We traded out at a very good odds of 1.26 with £170 spreading the profit fairly evenly across both options.
|
Profit made on this trade = £66
|
| Date: 02/09/07 |
| Time: 13.30hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Arsenal V Portsmouth - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
This is Portsmouth’s second away trip to a Big Four team in a week and they've lost 13/17 such trips, mostly by a margin greater than a goal. 8 of 13 recent Portsmouth defeats away to Big Four teams have been 3-0 and 2-1 and these scores accounted for 67% of winning scores at the Emirates last season. Currently the odds on Arsenal are 1.58 on Betfair which doesn't give us much to play with when we consider backing Arsenal so we are going to back over 2.5 goals around odds of 2.1 and trade out after a goal or two. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 1.92 before Kick Off. David James gave away a penalty after 8 min's which was converted by Van Percy. 20 min's later Fabregas gave us the result we were looking for and enabled us to trade out at 1.23. We weighted the over 2.5 with a £120 giving us a £61 profit due to the final result. Those members who were chasing yesterdays loss by staying in were rewarded by £93 in the bank.
|
Profit made on this trade = £61
|
| Date: 02/09/07 |
| Time: 15.00hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Blackburn V Manchester City - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Blackburn have conceeded goals in all but three home games since the start of last season and they failed to score in only 4 of 20. City have had only two scoreless away games since the 04/05 season. This gives us some confidence when recommending to lay the draw at around 3.5 and trade out after a goal or when the odds are in your favor . Ideally we want Blackburn to score first as the odds will drift further as they are slight favorites.
|
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 3.45 about 5 min's into the game. After 13 min's McCarthy scored for Blackburn giving us our trade out. We were only expecting 4.1 but 4.4 was freely available so we quickly traded out with a £78 back bet splitting the profit across all options.
|
Profit made on this trade = £21
|
| Date: 02/09/07 |
| Time: 16.00hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Aston Villa V Chelsea - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
This is one of those games where Chelsea are almost impossible to oppose. Villa are the type of opponent against whom Mourinho has built his Chelsea team; recurring, efficient, 1-0 & 2-0 away wins over mid-table teams. We advise you to back Chelsea (this is coming from a Villa supporter) and trade out after they take the lead. Currently they are available at 1.79 on Betfair. |
Our Trading Result:
We backed Chelsea at 2.1 before Kick Off. The first half had quite a few chances but no goals. At this time we considered trading out to protect today's profit. We held on and regrettably Villa scored, we then decided to minimize our loss and layed Chelsea at 6.4 for £40 before they drifted out of our reach and enabling us to take a profit for the day.
|
Profit made on this trade = - £60
|
| Date: 03/09/07 |
| Time: 17.00hrs |
| Fixture: Serie A |
| Teams: AC Milan V Fiorentina- SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Milan are without captain Paolo Maldini, who is recovering from knee surgery. Fiorentina have more injury concerns that their opponents, as Riccardo Montolivo, Franco Semioli and Martin Jorgensen are major doubts. Taking this into account, we are not sure you are going to see an agressive game. We feel the best option here is to lay the draw for around 3.7 and trade out after a goal, ideally this will come from Milan as they are the favored team on paper. If Fiorentina score first you may have to sit and wait for the odds to drift. |
Our Trading Result:
We were late getting involved and got matched at 3.6. Milan scored from a penalty after 27 min's giving us our trade out at 6.0 with £60 for £38 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £38
|
| Date: 04/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45hrs |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Oxford V Exeter - SCORE: 2 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Oxford United have lost just once in their last six home games, winning four and drawing one. Exeter City's away form is equally impressive with just one defeat in their last six, and picking up four good wins. We feel with the teams being so evenly matched on paper we can't back either team to win and the over 2.5 is questionable with their defensive records, so we are going to back under 2.5 goals at around 1.95 on Betfair and look to trade out around 1.6 or lower. Please check there is enough money in the market before getting involved. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at very low odds of 1.75. We were in two minds whether to get involved so to justify it we decided that our trade out odds would have to be lower, around 1.4. We managed to get 1.4 matched 60 min's into the game with a £128 lay bet, splitting the profit evenly across both options.
|
Profit made on this trade = £26
|
| Date: 05/09/07 |
| Time: 11.00hrs |
| Fixture: U17 World Championship - Semi Final |
| Teams: Spain U17 V Ghana U17- SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The West African nation has already won this title two times and is looking to equal Brazil’s record of 3 victories.The Ghanaians are slight favorites (but not on Betfair) having played some dazzling football and having defeated three South American powerhouses’ enroute to the semi-final. Meanwhile Spain have made slower but steady progress, they’ve held their nerve at crucial moments to get this far and they’ll be desperate to win for their veteran coach. We feel Ghana play beautiful but not always productive and Spain focus on what's important, scoring goals. The best option here is to lay the draw around 3.5 and trade out after a goal, as strange results happen in major competitions. You might also consider a small side bet on Ghana as they are good value at 3.05. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 3.5. Spain scored after 67 min's giving us nice trade out odds of 5.9 (7 was available before the 2nd goal) with £60 spreading the profit across all options. We also put £10 on Ghana to win at 3.05 and traded out in the first half at 2.78 for a small profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £38
|
| Date: 06/09/07 |
| Time: 11.00hrs |
| Fixture: U17 World Championship - Semi Final |
| Teams: Nigeria U17 V Germany U17- SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
The 2nd semi-final of the FIFA Under-17 World Cup takes place between Nigeria and Germany. Nigeria are no strangers to this stage of the Under-17 tournament and their coach Yemi Tellah goes into the game ‘certain’ of victory, but a young hungry German team will provide them with their most searching examination yet. In the quarter finals Germany demolished England to finish the tournament for their old enemy, and they’re flying high after that, but Coach Heiko Herrlich makes no bones about the Africans being the favorites. Nigeria are a formidable force, scoring 13 goals and conceding only 3 throughout the tournament and they’re the only side to maintain a 100% record in Korea with 5 straight wins. We are going to be backing over 2.5 goals around 1.9 and trade out after a goal or two. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 1.88. Nigeria scored after 10 min's and then again 8 min's later this gave us great odds to trade out at of 1.13 so we got out with £166 on the lay for a nice profit of £66. Normally we wait until half time for another goal in this situation but we didn't have time today. Those who did were given another goal this time from Germany after 33 min's for £88 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £63
|
| Date: 06/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45hrs |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Stafford Rangers V Halifax - SCORE: 2 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
The last time these two teams met the scoreline finished
Stafford Ranger 2 - 3 Halifax. In their previous 11 meetings Stafford have only managed to win once. Looking at the first 6 fixtures this season Stafford have lost 5 games, let in 13 goals, and only scored 3. Despite Halifax not having the best start their record is much better than Stafford's. We feel Stafford will be fighting back hard due to only grabbing 1 point so far this season, so we wouldn't want to pick a winner or a scoreline for this match. So we have decided to lay the draw around 3.5 and trade out after a goal. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 3.5 as the match turned inplay. We had to wait until 35 min's in for a goal which came from Killeen for Halifax. With Halifax being the slight favorites the odds drifted to 4.5 giving us a trade out with £77.50 spreading the profit across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £21
|
| Date: 08/09/07 |
| Time: 15.00hrs |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Scotland v Lithuania - SCORE: 3 -1 |
Our Recommendation:
With five games to go, Scotland lie in third place just a point behind Italy and three behind leaders France. The top two play each other on Saturday in Milan giving the Scots a chance to claw both teams back and possibly overtake world champions Italy into second place before facing the French next week. Lithuania have two wins and a draw from their seven games so far and with an five-point gap between themselves and fourth-placed Ukraine, their aim must surely be to consolidate their current fifth spot. We feel Scotland have this one but not by a big margin so we are backing under 2.5 goals around 1.95 and trading out below 1.6 |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 1.8 about 60 min's before kick off, this was because we saw the odds steadily shortening. For this reason we adjusted out trade out position to 1.5. We waited 25 min's for the odds to drift to a suitable level and traded out at 1.48 with a £122 lay bet giving us £21 profit across both options.
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Profit made on this trade = £21
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| Date: 08/09/07 |
| Time: 19.50hrs |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Italy V France - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Italy and France face each other for the third time in just over a year in a match which could be fundamental to their qualification for the European Championships. After all the accusations and provocations bouncing from one side to the other, the rivalry between the two nations has increased and will be a great re-match of the World Cup final, even though France already took their revenge last year when they defeated Italy 3-1. We were looking at under 2.5 goals but the odds are to short so we are going to be laying the draw around 3.15 and trading out after a goal. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 3.05 just before the start. We waited as long as possible for a goal but it never happened, forcing us to trade at around 70mins in at odds of 1.85, backing the draw with £125 to minimize our liability to under £100. A loss for us which we will recover from the next couple of trades. Well done to the members who backed the 0-0 draw!
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Profit made on this trade = - £99
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| Date: 08/09/07 |
| Time: 21.00hrs |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Iceland V Spain - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Spain are under no illusions that they need six points from their games against Iceland and Latvia if they are not to lose any more ground in Group F. The Spanish have admitted the build-up has been tough against Iceland and the one-goal victory at home earlier in the group stage proves that. The cold and wind may also come as a shock, although the visiting players should be adapted after training in the chilly conditions. Iceland will pack their defence, but Spain should have enough to draw or snatch the win. We are going to back under 2.5 goals around 2.1 and trade out under 1.6. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.16 just before the start. 20 min's in Spain were reduced to 10 men when Alonso was sent off. This helped us decide that Spain had a much more difficult task ahead of them now so we decided to ride this game out to try and recoup our earlier loss on the Italy game. From the early feedback we have received, this is also the reaction most of our members had to the loss earlier.
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Profit made on this trade = £115
|
| Date: 09/09/07 |
| Time: 11.00hrs |
| Fixture: U17 World Cup Final |
| Teams: Spain U17 v Nigeria U17 - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
The West Africans have oozed confidence and composure going forward. Leading the line for them will be Macauley Chrisantus golden boot elect. After adding a 6th goal in 7 games against Germany he’ll be looking to put another couple past the outstanding David De Gea in goal for Spain. Both Spain and Nigeria look determined and disciplined sides and we should be in for a close encounter, but with Spain’s talismanic striker sitting out the match, scoring goals is going to be tough for them.
Meanwhile Macauley Christian, Rabui Ibrahim and Yakubu Alfa are looking sharp for Nigeria and it could be a testing time for the Spanish defence.
We are going to be laying the draw around 3.2 and trading out after a goal. If you are worried about liability it might be worth backing the 0 - 0 draw with a small side bet, it is available at 12.5
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Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 3.2 with a liability of £220 early this morning whilst we were updating the website. We also covered the 0-0 with £20 at 12.5 giving us £230 if no goals we scored. We saw an eventful game but unfortunately no goals. It got to our usual get out time of 70 min's but as the 0-0 was completely covered by our earlier bet, and any goals late in the game would have driven the odds on the draw way up we couldn't lose either way.
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Profit made on this trade = £10
|
| Date: 09/09/07 |
| Time: 13.30hrs |
| Fixture: League Two |
| Teams: Wycombe v Brentford - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
9 of the last 10 home games for Wycombe have been under 2.5 goals. The 18 times these teams have met have averaged under 2 goals.
To compliment this when Wycombe have played against defensively good teams such as Brentwood over the last 3 seasons 82% have ended under 2.5 goals. I think you know where we are going with this... We will be backing under 2.5 goals around 1.85 and trading out under 1.55 |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 1.76 just before kick off. This was a game we were near certain of the result. We sat and watched the odds go down and down, then finally at half time we traded out at 1.22 with £145 lay bet giving us a nice positive result to end the day. Those who were feeling brave and waited until the final whistle were rewarded by £76 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £42
|
| Date: 10/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45hrs |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Burton v Torquay - SCORE: 3 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Burton Albion are showing reasonable home form, having won four and lost two from the last six played. A total of 11 goals have been scored by Burton in those games, with 7 conceded.
Torquay Utd. have an average recent record on the road, with two wins, two draws, and two defeats.The games have constituted a decent return of 10 goals, and 3 goals against.
Burton Albion lie just outside the playoff positions in the Blue Square (Conference) Premier, picking up 14 points from their 7 games so far. Torquay Utd. are just outside the promotion places, in 2nd, having taken 17 points from 7 games.
We are going to be laying the draw around 3.5 and trading out after a goal. The good news is Burton have not drawn at home in the last 15 games. Just in case cover the 0-0 if your worried about liability
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Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet matched at 3.45 30min's before kick off. Burton scored after 14 min's but the odds only went up to 3.95 after the goal. We were waiting for the odds to drift past 4.1 as we had a fiver on the 0-0 draw. Another goal came for Burton after 32 min's giving us a trade out of 7.4 with £40 putting the weight of the money of the Burton win.
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Profit made on this trade = £52
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| Date: 11/09/07 |
| Time: 17.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Finland V Poland - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
There should be a positive outcome for someone here because in either team’s trends, there are hardly any draws and the stats favour Poland. Finland’s home record against teams of similar ranking to Poland is W2-D1-L8. Worse than this is, their home record when playing teams with a similar ranking difference to Poland is really poor (W1-D2-L11). Poland’s away record since 1990 against teams with a similar ranking deficit to Finland’s reads W9-D1-L4, winning all of the most recent five. When we run the numbers we have Poland with a 54% chance of winning, Poland should be 1.85; they can currently be found on Betfair at 2.70 so quite obviously we will be backing Poland and trading out after they take the lead. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.94 before kick off. Lots of chances from both sides but it never happened. Nearly traded out after a quality free kick from Finland early in the second half but we decided to wait until the final whistle on this one as the Wales match which was in-play at the same time went our way. Unfortunately no goals so no money.
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Profit made on this trade = - £100
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| Date: 11/09/07 |
| Time: 17.30 hrs |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Slovakia v Wales - SCORE: 2 -5 |
Our Recommendation:
When Slovakia have won recently, they have tended to do so in style, recording victories of 6-1, 5-1 and 3-1 during the 2008 Qualifiers. We fully expect them to beat Wales and think they offer good value at 1.72 to win on Betfair. However, the best bet we feel is in the goals market. Seven of Slovakia’s eight games in qualifying have had more than 2.5 goals with five containing four or more. Four of Wales’ seven matches have featured +2.5 goals. So our advice is to back over 2.5 goals and trade out after a goal or two. Currently available at 1.98, great value! |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.02 before kick off. Slovakia scored first after 12 min's, 10 mins later Wales equalised. With the goals coming so early we decided to wait until half time for another goal knowing the odds would still be in our favour to trade out. We were also waiting for a goal from Poland before trading out by which time two more goals were scored before half time by Wales, therefore we let the bet run, thus winning the full amount!
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Profit made on this trade = £97
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| Date: 11/09/07 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs |
| Fixture: Euro 2008 Qualifier |
| Teams: Czech Republic v Rep of Ireland - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
The patterns are not promising for Ireland in this match-up. In 12 matches away against teams ranked 5-25 since 1990 they have drawn and lost six, failing to win a single game. By contrast, the Czech Republic are very strong at home – 13 wins from 15 in qualifying matches since the 2002 World Cup. If we stretch this further back, the trend continues. In the last 10 years, their home record in competitive matches stands at W23-D1-L3. We are going to be backing Czech Republic to win at around 1.76 and trade out after they take the lead. |
Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.0 as the match turned in-play. 15 min's in Jankulovski scored for the Czech Republic giving us a way out. Normally when a goal is scored this early we wait for another but with England's game starting shortly we wanted to finish early to watch the game. We traded out with £120 on the lay giving us £53 on the win.
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Profit made on this trade = £53
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| Date: 13/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs |
| Fixture: Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: Forest Green v Salisbury - SCORE: 0 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Forest Green Rovers have been playing quite well at home, winning 3, drawing 2, and losing just 1 this season so far. A total of 16 goals have been scored by the Rovers in those games, with 12 conceded.
To support this over the last 3 seasons when playing against poor away teams such as Salisbury they have won 87% of them. The away form of Salisbury City is pretty dire, collecting just 4 draws from the last six contests. Salisbury have conceded 9 goals in these games, and only hit 3 in reply. We have decided to back over 2.5 goals around 2.0 on Betfair and trade out after a goal or two, as it is slightly better value than backing Forest Green outright.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched early this morning at 1.96 as we had a busy day planned. Salisbury scored after 2 min's. We waited for another before half time, it came by way of an own goal by Chris Giles bringing the odds down to 1.19 we got our bet matched at 1.2 for the trade out with £165, giving us a profit of £60. Those who waited we rewarded by a late goal again by Salisbury.
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Profit made on this trade = £60
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| Date: 15/09/07 |
| Time: 13.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Tottenham V Arsenal - SCORE: 1 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
Going back to the millenium, when Tottenham have played Arsenal at home, all but one game has ended in a draw. In these fixtures the average score has been over 2.5 goals. In this situation we recommend you back the draw (currently at 3.35 on Betfair), and trade out before a goal is scored. If a goal is scored, an equalizer should follow which will give you another opportunity to trade out, if possible, lay under 2.6.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 3.35 before kick off. 15 min's in Bale scored for Spurs forcing us to wait for the equalizer, it came after 65 min's as expected. The odds were driven down to 1.77 giving us a trade out with £190 on the lay. This gave us a nice return of £85 across all options.
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Profit made on this trade = £85
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| Date: 15/09/07 |
| Time: 13.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Wigan V Fulham - SCORE: 1- 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Dispite Fulham's away games last season having more goals than any other team and all their games this season having finished over 2.5 goals, only once out of 14 meetings between these two has a game finished over 2.5 goals. We therefore feel that they will follow the same trend, so we recommend backing under 2.5 goals. It is currently sitting at 1.91 on Betfair. We recommend trading out by laying when the odds go under 1.6.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 1.87. Dempsey scored for Fulham after 11 min's stopping us trade out early. We waited until 59 min's in for the odds to drift to a decent profit, and traded out at 1.47 with £127 giving us £26 profit across all options. The game finished 1-1 so if you stayed in you would have taken over £80 profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £26
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| Date: 16/09/07 |
| Time: 13.15 hrs |
| Fixture: Championship League |
| Teams: Watford V Southampton - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Watford have enjoyed an impressive start to the Championship season. They currently lie second in the table behind Coventry, and aside from a thrashing by Leicester at the end of August, they have played well so far this season. Their last 10 matches have averaged 2.8 goals and when they have played Southampton the score line has averaged 3.5. We feel this match is ideal for backing over 2.5 goals around 1.92 and trading out after a goal or two. As usual, If one comes early its worth waiting for another as long as the odds are in your favour.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 1.96. We waited for a goal to arrive, it didn't come until 42 min's in and the odds only temporarily went under our back bet. There was only a small amount of money available so we didn't get our target odds matched, lucky for us and our members another goal followed 3 min's later giving us trade out odds of 1.31 with a lay bet of £130 weighted slightly towards over 2.5 goals. Congratulations to those who had the nerve to hang on, as you we rewarded by another goal after 70 min's for over £95 profit
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Profit made on this trade = £53
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| Date: 16/09/07 |
| Time: 16.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Manchester City V Aston Villa - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
On Betfair the odds are stacked toward under 2.5 goals. This does make sense if you only look at Man City's form in general. As an example their last 10 home matches have average just 1.2 goals. What seems to have been overlooked is the last 10 times these teams have met at Eastlands they have average over 3.2 goals. With Villa on a high after their recent win over Chelsea and City coming off the back of two losses we feel backing over 2.5 goals is the way to go. Currently available at 2.44 on Betfair. We will be looking to trade out under 1.9 after a goal or two.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.86. No early goal to trade out, we had to wait until the 49th Min's for Johnson to break the deadlock for Man City. The odds dropped to 2.9 for a short period but we decided to hang in there for a little longer to see if Villa could equalise. The odds drifted back to 4.0 so we called it a day and layed over 2.5 with £71 to minimise our loss and guarantee a profit for the day.
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Profit made on this trade = - £28
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| Date: 17/09/07 |
| Time: 20.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Derby V Newcastle - SCORE: 1 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
The last time these two teams met at Derby County was back in 2002, with Newcastle Utd. inflicting a narrow 2-3 defeat upon Derby. Currently Newcastle Utd.'s 8 points from 4 games sees them lie inside the top half of the table, in 9th position with a game in hand and no losses. Derby find themselves stuck right at the bottom of the Premiership. Their 5 games have only yielded 1 point. With Owen firing on all cylinders and Derby's Darren Moore out. We feel this game is going to go Newcastle's way and as they have a strong away scoring record in the Premiership we will be backing over 2.5 goals around 2.1 on Betfair and trading out after a goal or two.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.1. Newcastle looked like a shadow of their former selves with scrappy play and no continuity. After 20 min's we agreed that this didn't look like it was going to go our way. A goal came by a long range shot from Derby's Kenny Miller after 39 min's giving us odds of 2.35 which we took with £100 on the lay, to stop any loss if under 2.5 and a minimized loss to £28 if over. The game finished 1-0 to Derby which they deserved to win.
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Profit made on this trade = £0
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| Date: 18/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs |
| Fixture: UEFA Champions League |
| Teams: Shakhtar v Celtic - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Shakhtar seem to be favorites to win here, they are very strong at home and have won five of their nine home matches in the Champions League. Celtic’s appalling away record (In the Champions League they are yet to win an away match, losing 11 of 13) supports Shakhtar being favorites. We will be backing Shakhtar to win at 2.05 and trade out after they take the lead. You could also consider a side trade on over 2.5 goals and trading out after a goal or two.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back (win) bet matched at 2.04 and our +2.5 bet matched at 2.12. We bearly had time to put the kettle on and two goals were scored in 8 min's by Shakhtar. We traded out on the back (win bet) straight away at odds of 1.09 with £185 for £81, and a few min's later traded out at 1.12 on the +2.5 goals. We only had £25 on the goals market as it was a side bet but still managed to bank £21 from this bet. This is exactly what we all needed after the previous two trades.
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Profit made on this trade = £102
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| Date: 18/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs |
| Fixture: UEFA Champions League |
| Teams: AC Milan V Benfica - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
AC Milan opens the defense of its Champions League title against Benfica almost three weeks after beating Sevilla for the European Super Cup.
Milan ’s group stage matches of this competition at home have show a consistent pattern of over 2.5 goals. Benfica’s away matches also show the same pattern. We will be backing over 2.5 goals (currently available at 2.14 on Betfair) and trading out after a goal or two.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched at 2.14 about 30 min's before kick off. This was almost a mirror of the Celtic game with the second goal coming a little later after 23 min's. With the odds so low after the second goal we just had to take them we got out at 1.16 with £180 on the lay for £77 profit. Two positive highly profitable trades today, brilliant! Those who stayed in took over £100 profit!
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Profit made on this trade = £77
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| Date: 19/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs |
| Fixture: UEFA Champions League |
| Teams: Arsenal V Sevilla - SCORE: 3 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
We feel Arsenal's toughest test of the season awaits them when they welcome a team hailed by Wenger, as one of the best in Europe. This game is likely to be a very open, flowing end-to-end, with both teams viewing attack as the best form of defense.
Arsenal are currently top of the Premiership having scored 10 goals from 6 games and conceded 4. Sevilla are second only to Real Madrid after two La Liga games. They have scored 8 goals in two games, and conceding 2. Unfortunately they have no history so our members picking this trade have given us a tough choice. We have decided to back the draw here around 3.3 on Betfair and trade out before a goal, ideally below 2.5. If there is a goal it is likely there will be an equalizer giving another trading out opportunity. A side bet on over 2.5 goals might be a good idea as we are expecting goals, this was highlighted by a couple of members.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our (draw) back bet matched at 3.3 and our £25 over 2.5 bet matched at 1.97. The game was played as expected and made for one of the best matches we have seen in ages. Unfortunately Sevilla looked a little out of their league here, and in the end Arsenal won comfortably. We had no real chance to trade out on the draw as there was no equalizer, and the odds were to high when we would normally trade out. £100 loss on the Draw which was minimized by the £23 win on the over 2.5 which we let run.
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Profit made on this trade = - £77
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| Date: 19/09/07 |
| Time: 20.00 hrs |
| Fixture: UEFA CUP |
| Teams: Everton v Metallist Kharkiv - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Last season’s sixth place finish earned Everton a place in UEFA Cup. They have been matched up with Metalist Kharkiv a team most people have never heard of. They finished in third sport in the Ukrainian Premier League which has given them their first ever qualification for the UEFA Cup. This has been largely down to reinvestment from Oleksandr Yaroslavsky the new owner, who recently purchased a Brazilian, a Nigerian and a Moroccan international. This team have nothing to lose and will be taking chances so we should see a few goals. Everton will want to build a good lead going into the second leg. This should come from the strike duo of Andrew Johnson and Yakubu. Backing over 2.5 goals here should be a safe bet so thats our selection. We will be looking to get out after a goal or two. The odds are very short at the moment (1.65) so we will give it a little time inplay for the odds to drift.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched inplay at 2.0 about 10 min's in. Everton started very well with an attacking formation. 23 min's in Lescott headed one in the back of the net to take the lead for Everton. Odds went down to 1.51, we took the trade out at 1.6 with £126 on the lay to secure a winner as we have not had our best week. We didn't see the rest of the game after we traded out, but apparently Metallist had two men sent off and Johnson missed 3 penalties, Wow! This should make for an interesting second leg!
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Profit made on this trade = £25
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| Date: 22/09/07 |
| Time:15.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Arsenal V Derby - SCORE: 5 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six home games, winning five of them, and drawing the other one. These high-scoring games have yielded a total of 13 goals for the Gunners, with 3 goals against.
In contrast Derby are having a torrid time away from home, winning just 1, with 5 defeats, from the last six. They have also conceded 16 goals in these games, and only hit 3 in reply.
With Arsenal sitting proudly at the top of the Premier League, and 80% of their recent games against promoted sides yielding over 2.5 goals. We are confident we will see some goals. We will be looking to back over 2.5 goals around 1.9 (same as Thursday, waiting a short time in-play before getting in as the odds are short at 1.65) then trading out after a goal. Those of you who are brave can wait for another as Arsenal frequently score late goals.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched inplay at a short 1.74, 8 min's in as the odds weren't moving up. 2 min's later Abou Diaby scored for Arsenal giving us our trade out at 1.31 with £132 to give us £32 profit. Regrettable four more goals followed securing £74 for anyone who stayed in.
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Profit made on this trade = £32
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| Date: 22/09/07 |
| Time:15.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Liverpool V Birmingham City - SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Liverpool go into this game two points off the pace, and unbeaten in eight games home and abroad this season. Birmingham are looking for a third victory in four Premier League outings.
Looking at Birmingham's recent record, they have conceded goals in 14 of their last 15 away games and scored an average 1.3 goals a game. In contrast liverpool's last 10 home games have averaged 2.8 goals with them scoring an average of 2.2 . Looking at the previous history of these teams when Liverpool have played at home the scoreline has average 2.75 goals. We are sure you know what are recommendation is but here it is anyway. Back over 2.5 goals and trade out after a goal. The odds are currently sitting at 1.85, we will be looking for over 1.9, so will be backing in-play if we need to.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched inplay at 2.02 the same time as we got in on the Arsenal game. We didn't like what we were seeing all the way through the first half, and with no goals scored we traded out at 5.2 with £50 on the lay to minimize our loss to £50. We did this to give us a chance of ending in profit after the Sevilla game later today. We also backed the 0 - 0 draw after 57 mins at 3 for £30 to give us no loss but as we didn't highlighted this in advance we have chose not to report it.
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Profit made on this trade = - £50
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| Date: 22/09/07 |
| Time: 21.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Barcelona V Sevilla - SCORE: 2 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Barcelona have scored in every one of their last 43 games at home. They are averaging 3.0 goals a game at home, and when playing against offensively good teams such as Sevilla over the last 3 seasons 72% of matches have ended over 2.5 goals. To support this when they have played against Sevilla at home over the last 10 years the score line has averaged 3.0 goals a game. Sorry to tell you this, but yes its another back over 2.5 goals and trade out after a goal. Currently available at 1.85 on Betfair.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet matched inplay at 1.95 about 10 min's in. The match was still goalless after 40 min's and we were considering trading out as we did earlier. But with Barcelona's scoring record and the highly positive video stream we were watching it was just a matter of time that the deadlock would be broken. 3 late goals and luck of the gods winning us £90. Those members that emailed us - we told you if you waited the goals would come!
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Profit made on this trade = £90
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| Date: 23/09/07 |
| Time: 14.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Scotland Premier League |
| Teams: Hibernian V Celtic - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Predictably Celtic are top of the Scottish Premier League, less predictably Hibernian aren’t that far behind. The Bhoys will come into the game on the back of a Champions League trip to Shakhtar Donetsk in Ukraine, and unbeaten Hibs have started the season strongly. Looking at the history between these teams, in the 42 times they have met only 2 games have had no goals. The most recent was 7 years ago. The order of the day should be goals, as 3+ goals is very popular between these teams. We will be backing over 2.5 and trading out after a goal or two. Currently available at 1.74 on Betfair. If you want a better price give it a few min's to drift inplay.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back (over 2.5 goals) bet matched at 1.64 as the match turned in-play as we didn't want to risk it shortening as it did overnight. Hibs scored about 5 min's later. We knew Celtic would pile the pressure on to equalize and a goal followed 20 min's later giving us odds of 1.19 for a trade out with £115 putting the weight of the profit on over 2.5 goals. £40 profit for us, but if you waited, 3 more goals followed!!! Congratulations to you if you held in there!
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Profit made on this trade = £40
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| Date: 23/09/07 |
| Time: 15.00 hrs |
| Fixture: Premier League |
| Teams: Bolton V Tottenham - SCORE: 1 - 1 |
Our Recommendation:
Recent form suggests that there will be goals in this game, and that they are likely to come early on. Bolton are most susceptible to concede in the first quarter having only kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 18. Tottenham are most likely to score in that same period, and when scoring on the road, 64% of their games have finished over 2.5 goals since the start of last season. But Spurs also have a chronic inability to keep a clean sheet only once in 17 of their most recent away games. So what we are basically say is their will be goals but we have no idea who will win, so we are going to lay the draw and back over 2.5 goals trading out after a goal.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our £50 back (over 2.5 goals) bet matched at 1.9 and our £100 lay bet on the draw matched at 3.55. We had to wait until 34 min's in for a goal, it came by the way of Robbie Keane. This gave us our way out on the Lay at odds of 4.1 giving us £13 across all options. A couple of mins later Bolton equalized as expected due to Spurs having a serious problem stopping balls hitting the back of the net. We traded out of our back bet with £65 at 1.27 weighting the money towards over 2.5 minimizing our profit as the game finished 1-1.
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Profit made on this trade = £27
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| Date: 24/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs |
| Fixture: Superliga (Portugal) |
| Teams:Boavista V Academica- SCORE: 0 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
Boavista are currently sitting 12th, one place below Academica 4 games into the season. The current form at home for Boavista points towards a draw, having drawn their last 4 games, with 1-1being the most popular score line. If you look at who they were playing then this is much better than it looks, holding the current 2, 3 and 5th place teams to this score line. Academica will come into this match having lost their last 3 away games by at least 2 goals to fairly decent teams. Looking at their overall history, they have averaged over 2.5 goals, and when Boavista have played at home the scoreline has average 3.0 goals.
We are going to lay under 2.5 goals at around 1.65 (£65 liability) on Betfair and trade out after a goal if it comes early. If not we will put a back bet on (the rest of our £100 stake) over 2.5 goals around half time so we can still trade out in profit if a goal comes before 60 min's or so.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our lay bet on at 1.65 before kick off. No goal came early but Boavista gave us a fairly positive feeling they would score, so we stuck in putting our £35 from the initial stake on over 2.5 goals with average odds of 7.3, hoping to trade out after a goal. 65 min's in we stuck a stoploss on 0-0 but as we didn't highlight it in advance we haven't adjusted our losses. We waited this one out, but unfortunately no goals.
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Profit made on this trade = - £100
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| Date: 25/09/07 |
| Time: 20.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Primera Division |
| Teams: Sevilla V Espanyol - SCORE: 2 - 3 |
Our Recommendation:
According to the Catalan press, Espanyol are in disarray after their defeat at the weekend as they again failed to hold on to a lead. This will be compounded when playing Sevilla because when playing against offensively good home teams over the last 3 seasons they have lost 80% of them and haven't beaten Sevilla at home since 1999. Average scores between these teams over the last 3 years have been over 3 goals.
Sevilla may have lost their last two matches, but there will only be determination to bounce back rather than too much self-analysis. Espanyol's record this term doesn't inspire confidence and it is unlikely that they will be able to pull off anything other than damage limitation. We are confident over 2.5 goals is the way to go here and trade out after a goal or two. Currently available at 1.85 on Betfair. You could also consider a side bet on Sevilla to win inplay after the odds drift a little.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on (over 2.5 goals) inplay at 2.04. The first goal came from Espanyol after 29 min's. We took the early trade out at 1.65 with £124 for £23 profit. As we didn't get our early bet on Sevilla for the price we wanted, we then put £20 of the profit on Sevilla to win at 3.8, just after half time. We were slightly concerned after they went two down but there was no need to be as two goals to take the score level followed shortly, giving us our trade out at 2.4 for another £11. We did have a bit of a laugh as, if we had simply let the bet run as some of our members we would have taken over £100.
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Profit made on this trade = £34
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| Date: 26/09/07 |
| Time: 19.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture :Bundesliga (Germany)
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| Teams: Nurnberg v Leverkusen- SCORE: 1 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Last season these teams were very evenly matched, but at the moment they are separated by six points only 6 games into the season with Nurnberg 3rd from bottom and Leverkusen 2 from the top.
When Leverkusen have played against defensively poor home teams such as Nurnberg the last 3 seasons 85% of them have been over 2.5 goals. 2-2 is a popular score between these teams and goals are always on the menu. When playing against each other with Nurnberg at home the average score per game is over 3.4 goals and if you look just at the last 3 years its 4.3. I'm sure you understand what we are going to do so here it is... We are going to back over 2.5 goals and trade out after a goal or two. Currently available at 2.04 on Betfair.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.99. Leverkusen broke the score line about 6 min's before half time. We had already traded out on the Torino game so decided to let this one run due to their history and the tempo of the game and that we were only risking £50 due to the other match winning us £47. Two more goals followed late in the second half very close together. A winner for most of us, if the emails are anything to go by. £94 Profit.
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Profit made on this trade = £94
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| Date: 26/09/07 |
| Time: 19.30 hrs GMT |
| Fixture : Serie A (Italy) |
| Teams: Parma V Torino - SCORE: 2 - 0 |
Our Recommendation:
These teams have had seven draws in eight matches this season, 4 of them have been 1-1. There overall history supports us looking at under 2.5 goals, and when you look at Parma at home against Torino the average score has been under two goals. What we find more interesting is the last 3 years with the 1-0 being the most popular final score between these teams. We are going to be backing under 2.5 goals around 1.75 on Betfair and trading out under 1.5.
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.72. No goals came through the first half. We got out about 35 min's in at 1.32 with £150 on the lay bet giving us £47.50 if the game finished under 2.5 which it did. Those who stayed in today will definitely be smiling with over £170 profit from the two trades
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Profit made on this trade = £47
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| Date: 27/09/07 |
| Time: 19.45 hrs GMT |
| Fixture : Blue Square Premier |
| Teams: York City V Halifax - SCORE: 3 - 2 |
Our Recommendation:
Both teams are in the bottom half of the league. A lot to do with this is their inability to score lots of goals. York are averaging 1 goal a game when playing at home and Halifax are averaging 1.2 when playing away. To support this the last 8 times these teams have played against each other the final score line has been under 2.5 goals. We are going to be backing under 2.5 goals around 2 and trading out under 1.6. If the odds shorten we will adjust our trade out odds as usual.
Please also check the money available in the market as it could be a little short. (You are looking for 5 times your stake available across the 3 boxes in betfair)
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Our Trading Result:
We got our back bet on at 1.94. Odds went down to 1.72 before the first goal, not allowing us to trade out as we were looking for 1.6. No more goals before half time. The odds were around 1.85 we decided to give it a little longer before trading out. We submitted a bet at 1.73 to trade out but the match went suspended for another goal about 52 min's in. This forced us to take trade odds of 3.0 to minimize losses. Looking like the game could finish over we used £80 to trade out giving us a £20 loss if over 2.5 and £66 if under. 5 min's later this was decided by another goal giving us a £20 loss.
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Profit made on this trade = - £20
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| Date: 29/09/07 |
| Time:15.00 hrs GMT |
| Fixture: Premi | |
